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2021 NFL Draft Thread


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48 minutes ago, R T said:

I would guess the Packers have a 1st round grade (tier grade for you 1265ūüėČ)¬†on¬†16-18 non-QB's this year and if that is correct the Packers probably will need to trade up to that 21-23 range to land one of them. The Colts at 21 only have 6 picks this year and no 3rd rounder, would they be a player trying to recoup a 3rd? Or maybe the Jets at 23 just wanting to add draft capital for a rebuild?¬†What also should be ask is why would another team trade if they also only have a player or two left in that tier? Takes two for this dance.¬†

The difference between how two different teams value players (due to their scheme) is part of the reason why a team would trade in these circumstances. The other reason is favourites+impatience as I mentioned before. It's also pretty much a guarantee that stacking the board will vary plenty between teams, as different scouts/GMs see players differently. I'd also agree that the Packers most likely end up with 8 picks.

I have absolutely no idea how teams set their tiers, but here is an example of how I would do it, using the Bleacher Report grading of players as a guide. Trying to set the tiers is an intuitive guess, really. You could separate the top handful of players even more, maybe even putting Lawrence in a tier of his own (his grade is 0.3 better than the next best player), but I chose to make it a little broader.


Tier 1 picks 1-5 (grade 9.5 to 8.9)
Tier 2 picks 6-10 (grade 8.75 to 8.6)
Tier 3 picks 11-20 (grade 8.51 to 8.3)
Tier 4 picks 21-30 (grade 8.2 to 8.0)
Tier 5 picks 31- 55 (grade 7.92 to 7.8)
Tier 6 picks 56-85 (grade 7.76 to 7.6)
Tier 7 picks 86 to 123 (grade 7.56 to 7.3)
Tier 8 picks 124 to 166 (grade 7.25 to 7.0)
Tier 9 picks 167 to 215 (grade 6.9 to 6.6)
Tier 10 picks 216 to 248 (grade 6.5 to 6.2)

Having four tiers in round one (5 technically) might be too many, but it feels right to me.

On that basis, the Packers sit right at the end of a tier (4) in round 1 (two higher tier picks left at #29)
They miss out on a higher tier (which would be tier 5) in round 2 by 7 picks.
They miss out on a higher tier (which would be tier 6) in round 3 by 7 picks.
They are right in the middle of a tier (8) with 4th round picks 135 and 142.
They just miss out on a higher tier (8) with 5th round picks 173, and 177.
They are at the bottom of tier 9 and top of tier 10 with their 6th round picks 212 and 218
Their 7th round pick is below the lowest tier (10), so no real difference between that and a rookie priority FA, except for being sure you get your man.

Edited by OneTwoSixFive
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I have been running through the mock draft simulators, trying to see what the worst case scenario for the Packers would be.  I think we are going to be getting a pretty good player in both the first and second rounds.  I know that those sometimes do some funny stuff, but I have normally liked what was left to me in the first and second.  

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21 hours ago, R T said:

How? In what way?

Watching him play, he just reminds me of a guy like MLF would love. I can just see him wanting a player like him. Scheming up ways to get him open. A supercharged Ervin 

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