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e16bball

Who’s Your Favorite “Question Mark“ Redskin?

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53 minutes ago, e16bball said:

This is why grading is pretty unconvincing to me for DBs on any kind of sample that’s less than a couple years. 

Everything you said is true about 2018. But in 2017, PFF said he was the #2 CB in football playing almost exclusively out of the slot. He was as good in 430 snaps in the slot in 2017 (90.2 grade) as he was in 101 snaps outside in 2018 (90.7 grade). Is he the best slot CB in the league, or among the worst? They genuinely have no idea, although I guess they’d skew toward deeming him the worst, given how bad he was last year. 

Just from watching him play, I personally think he’s a slot corner and wouldn’t hold up long-term outside. I’m aware of what they said about him playing outside in 2018, but we’re talking about 100 snaps, or like a game and a half worth of snaps. That doesn’t mean much to me. I don’t think he’s fast enough or big enough (you kinda have to be one or the other) to consistently match up on the outside. In man, at least. If they’re planning to play a lot of zone, that’s a different story.

I have absolutely no problem with trying him outside. They’re paying him so much money, they might as well try it. But I’m not very optimistic. If I had to lay money down, I would say it ends up being Moreau and Darby primarily outside (until they both get hurt, obviously), with Fuller primarily in the slot. Moreland is the X factor outside, but I’m just not really sure about how he holds up either.

I agree with the grading.  I always look at three years of grades when trying to evaluate someone based off that.  Before they get three years of data, it's much more involved in the eye test.  

I'm not sure Fuller holds up well outside either.  But like you said, they paid him a lot of money, so why not try it and see what happens?  It's going to be a lost season anyway.  If you turn him into a very good #1 corner, awesome, that contract now becomes a bargain.  If not, he's still a good slot guy, and the production matches the contract those guys are getting now.   

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13 hours ago, HTTRDynasty said:

Based on what I’ve read, KC fans would agree with PFF regarding Fuller’s performance from the slot in 2018 and 2019.  Fuller was poor there his rookie year, was elite his sophomore season, and was below average the next two years before moving to FS.  However, he performed well at outside CB - obviously, the sample size was small. 

It’s not just Fuller. PFF has admitted that coverage grades tend to vary significantly from year-to-year.  It makes sense, as performance is so dependent on the WRs and QBs you face from year-to-year.  The true measure of a CB’s talents probably need to be measured as an average across several seasons. For example: Darius Slay received a relatively poor grade from PFF last year, and most Lions fans agree he had a bad year - but he is still considered a top CB by both fans and PFF.  If we use that reasoning, Fuller is probably about average as a slot CB.  He'll have his good years and his bad.

Totally agree on all this. It’s absolutely got to be a multi-year sample to draw any conclusions about true talent level. And that’s what I’m getting at here — I’m not saying they’re doing a bad job of charting plays, I just don’t think you can draw a conclusion on true talent level moving forward from the limited sample of “action” plays a CB has in a season. 

I do sometimes criticize them for putting too much weight on making big plays or being involved in turnovers. They’re certainly important plays from a wins/losses standpoint, but I don’t know that they always tell us that much about how good the player is. Which makes the way they value such plays very good for looking back and saying how much impact a player made — but not so much for looking forward and projecting how much impact he will make. 

13 hours ago, HTTRDynasty said:

Why don’t you think he’s fast enough to hold up outside?  I think 4.48 is plenty fast for a CB. 
 

As it relates to his size, there have been plenty of 5’11” CBs who have held up well on the outside. Revis was that height, as just one example.

I’ve seen that 4.48 number quoted, but I don’t know where it’s coming from. He was hurt during the pre-draft process, so he didn’t have any timed runs at either the combine or a pro day. It looks like maybe it’s coming from an NFLDraftScout.com projection of what they thought he would run? Maybe I’m missing something, but I just don’t see where that time came from. It’s about where I’d figure him from watching him, maybe I’d have him a hair slower, but it’s reasonable.

Anyway, I don’t think there’s anything wrong with his size, just like there’s nothing wrong with his speed or length or anything else. Physically, he’s basically exactly the average dimensions of a drafted CB. But I think to be a good CB, certainly to be a $10M+ CB, you need to have something to rely on. Great size or length or recovery speed or ball skills, something that sort of becomes your calling card and the foundation for how you defend guys. Revis had elite recovery speed, which allowed him to be aggressive and crowd guys without fear that they would get behind him.

I think the exceptional things about Fuller are his instincts and toughness. I think that makes him game in the slot, and he’d probably be able to compete effectively against many of the more average WRs. But out in space against a guy like Amari Cooper, who is bigger and stronger and faster, I just don’t know how he defends himself.

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Posted (edited)

@e16bball Most corners in the NFL struggle to cover the top WRs in the NFL like Amari Cooper. For me, those guys are going to get theirs most games. 
 

The question is if Fuller can be like his brother Kyle Fuller as a #1 corner, and I think he can. If he can lock up and cover teams #1 WRs who really don’t have #1 WRs like the Giants for example, then he’s going to be good. You don’t need an elite #1 to have success on D but, of course it helps. Norman was never elite even though we paid him as such, I trust Fuller more than I did Norman especially the last few years of Norman when he lost a step and seemed disinterested in playing in DC.

Edited by turtle28

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, e16bball said:

I’ve seen that 4.48 number quoted, but I don’t know where it’s coming from. He was hurt during the pre-draft process, so he didn’t have any timed runs at either the combine or a pro day. It looks like maybe it’s coming from an NFLDraftScout.com projection of what they thought he would run? Maybe I’m missing something, but I just don’t see where that time came from. It’s about where I’d figure him from watching him, maybe I’d have him a hair slower, but it’s reasonable.

Anyway, I don’t think there’s anything wrong with his size, just like there’s nothing wrong with his speed or length or anything else. Physically, he’s basically exactly the average dimensions of a drafted CB. But I think to be a good CB, certainly to be a $10M+ CB, you need to have something to rely on. Great size or length or recovery speed or ball skills, something that sort of becomes your calling card and the foundation for how you defend guys. Revis had elite recovery speed, which allowed him to be aggressive and crowd guys without fear that they would get behind him.

I think the exceptional things about Fuller are his instincts and toughness. I think that makes him game in the slot, and he’d probably be able to compete effectively against many of the more average WRs. But out in space against a guy like Amari Cooper, who is bigger and stronger and faster, I just don’t know how he defends himself.

I'm honestly not sure where the 4.48 number is coming from either.  Maybe he ran it in Spring training in 2016 with the Hokies.  @turtle28 brings up a good point in referencing his brother Kyle though.  Kyle ran a 4.49 at the Combine, so I don't really doubt Kendall's 4.48 number.  Kyle also had a 38.5 inch vert... I would expect Kendall to be in that range too - evidenced by his leaping INT in the Super Bowl (that was an extremely impressive pick).  They're approximately the same height and weight, and while brothers aren't always similarly athletic, I've watched Kyle play enough to believe Kendall is just as athletic, if not more.

I think if Kyle can have success at outside CB - pro-bowler the past two years and was 1st team All-Pro in 2018 - then Kendall can too.  I know he trains with his brothers every offseason, so I'm sure Kyle shares technique tips and other knowledge an outside CB would need to know with Kendall.  I actually think he'd do well against guys like Amari Cooper, savvy route-runners who CBs like Dunbar and Norman typically struggled with.  

 

EDIT: Here's a screenshot of that leaping INT.

1430072200_ScreenShot2020-05-24at12_22_4

Edited by HTTRDynasty

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, naptownskinsfan said:

 

Blahahaha ”Stellar play of Bostic?” Did Larry Michael Edit this tweet?

Bostic is avg, Holcomb is too until/unless he gets better in coverage.

Personally, I think SDH is better than both Bostic & Holcomb. And, I'd take JHC over Bostic & Holcomb in coverage, but I haven't seen enough of him vs the run to make a determination if he’d be better than them there.

Edited by turtle28

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And he was recovering from a torn ACL:

 

WASHINGTON REDSKINS: CB RONALD DARBY

The NFL is a “what have you done for me lately” league, and Darby’s recent results have been disappointing to say the least. He was beat up pretty good with the Philadelphia Eagles last season, earning just a 39.8 grade in coverage and allowing a passer rating of 117.9 on throws into his coverage for the year. Here at PFF, though, work done over the last several years by our research and development team has shown that results in coverage are relatively unstable from year to year. That means that someone like Darby — who graded between 68.3 and 78.3 in each of the first four years of his career — has a decent chance of bouncing back from a down year in 2020. While others may put too much weight on a bad 2019 season, I like what Washington did by bringing in a 26-year-old with four quality seasons of starting experience on his resume. 

 

 

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10 minutes ago, HTTRDynasty said:

And he was recovering from a torn ACL:

 

WASHINGTON REDSKINS: CB RONALD DARBY

The NFL is a “what have you done for me lately” league, and Darby’s recent results have been disappointing to say the least. He was beat up pretty good with the Philadelphia Eagles last season, earning just a 39.8 grade in coverage and allowing a passer rating of 117.9 on throws into his coverage for the year. Here at PFF, though, work done over the last several years by our research and development team has shown that results in coverage are relatively unstable from year to year. That means that someone like Darby — who graded between 68.3 and 78.3 in each of the first four years of his career — has a decent chance of bouncing back from a down year in 2020. While others may put too much weight on a bad 2019 season, I like what Washington did by bringing in a 26-year-old with four quality seasons of starting experience on his resume. 

 

 

Rivera had good things to say about Darby.  I trust Rivera & Del Rio to have more knowledge on defensive players than some people on twitter for example who are just looking at last season. I agree w/ PFF’s analysis of Darby’s overall play in his career, but his injury history is a concern. I hope he stays healthy for us.

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That is an interesting point on Darby.  They are hedging their bets that for whatever reason, 2019 is a down year and not going to be the new normal for him.  Injuries to Darby, and to those he played alongside, hurt as well.  

My money would be on it being a down year, especially since Darby is only 26, but I'm also worried about how we just got him for one year, $4 million.  Him being a rebound candidate might not be the prevailing theory in league circles.  

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