Who wins the AFC East?

[Hunter2_1]

On 19/05/2020 at 9:12 PM, DontTazeMeBro said:

I think they’re going to tank, get Lawrence, and next spring Belichick is going to build the Death Star.

 

[SDotNova]

It’ll probably be one of the more competitive divisions in the league.  The Bills should be favored but I could easily see NE and NYJ winning it. Also Miami could surprise. I’m expecting the worse team to have 6 wins and the best team to have 9. It’ll be tight.

Edited May 22, 2020 by SDotNova

[DontTazeMeBro]

17 minutes ago, Hunter2_1 said:

Why wouldn’t they? If Stidham turns out to be an elite QB, ok sure. But lets operate under the assumption he won’t. They have almost zero shot of winning the Super Bowl. They can be like all the other franchises who don’t have a QB. Always drafting and hoping and trying to develop. Or take one trash season and get one of the highest rated prospects ever and probably instantly become Super Bowl contenders again. And unlike almost every other coach, Belichick actually has the job security to withstand a season like that. It’s a no brainer.

[Deadpulse]

I think Miami is going to surprise a lot of people. 

[raidersedge]

Buffalo could very well be in control of the AFC East for a few years. They have a high level defense to make things very difficult for the opposing QBs in that division. There is a lot of pressure on Josh Allen though because if they falter the blame will go on him.

[Daniel]

My mind and everything I know about these teams says the Bills, but I still say Bill.

[Trentwannabe]

11 hours ago, NYJets4716 said:

Allen was placed onto a team that had consistency, no major changes. Had a quality OL, very good run game, WRs that made plays for him, and a great defense that held teams in check. 

I mean not as a rookie. His OL was terrible and his wide receivers were Kelvin Benjamin, Zay Jones and Andre Holmes. The Defense has been the only consistent thing on the field.

He did haven’t the change of HC or OC which is the big leg up on Darnold but to say he didn’t have whole changes is not true.

Allen and Dion Dawkins were the only offensive players to play in 2018 and be a  starter or immediate depth player for the 2019 season. 9 new starters on offense and a new QB coach are a pretty drastic change for a guy in his second season. 

[SalvadorsDeli]

4 hours ago, DontTazeMeBro said:

Why wouldn’t they? If Stidham turns out to be an elite QB, ok sure. But lets operate under the assumption he won’t. They have almost zero shot of winning the Super Bowl. They can be like all the other franchises who don’t have a QB. Always drafting and hoping and trying to develop. Or take one trash season and get one of the highest rated prospects ever and probably instantly become Super Bowl contenders again. And unlike almost every other coach, Belichick actually has the job security to withstand a season like that. It’s a no brainer.

It's probably the rational play and I think if Belicheck wanted to tank he'd get the greenlight to do it, but I"m just not sure he has it in him. And I don't think he could field the worst team in the NFL without actively trying to do so, even with a mediocre roster. That defense, even if it's bound to regress some, is still going to be pretty good, and as we saw with the Steelers last year a good defense and great coaching is enough to not be bottom of the barrel bad. 

Him and Brady clearly have a sort of complicated and competitive relationship and I don't think he'd be able to stomach Brady winning in Tampa while he's getting his butt whooped. Even if he gets Lawrence in the end, all that does is create a narrative that Belichek couldn't win without being carried by elite QB's. And however much he may not care what the media or fans say on a day to day or week to week basis, I do think he cares a lot about his place and legacy in NFL history. He's enough of a competitive nutjob to be looking at this season as a chance to prove just how great he is once again - genuinely if he wins the AFC East with some Madden auto-generated QB, it'll be up there with some of his championships in terms of career accomplishments and he'd absolutely relish the opportunity to get to say he did that. 

Not to mention, he's still 50ish wins out from catching Shula for most wins all-time so punting a season at age 69 would be a pretty big gamble if he wants to get that record, which I would bet he does. 

Edited May 22, 2020 by BaltimoreTerp

[Apparition]

5 hours ago, DontTazeMeBro said:

Why wouldn’t they? If Stidham turns out to be an elite QB, ok sure. But lets operate under the assumption he won’t. They have almost zero shot of winning the Super Bowl. They can be like all the other franchises who don’t have a QB. Always drafting and hoping and trying to develop. Or take one trash season and get one of the highest rated prospects ever and probably instantly become Super Bowl contenders again. And unlike almost every other coach, Belichick actually has the job security to withstand a season like that. It’s a no brainer.

Also it would simply run counter to his entire organizational philosophy to chase a supposedly elite prospect at any position like that. Remember, one of the big reasons he opted to jettison Bledsoe in favor of Brady AFTER making him the highest-paid player in the NFL was that he realized he had a much better shot at winning consistently if he could use more resources to bolster the middle third of his roster instead of shelling out top-shelf money for a QB. People don't seem to appreciate just how much of the Patriots' success over the last 20 years hinged on Brady consistently taking below-market contracts to remain with the team. 

Edited May 22, 2020 by Starless

[diamondbull424]

20 minutes ago, BaltimoreTerp said:

It's probably the rational play and I think if Belicheck wanted to tank he'd get the greenlight to do it, but I"m just not sure he has it in him. And I don't think he could field the worst team in the NFL without actively trying to do so, even with a mediocre roster. That defense, even if it's bound to regress some, is still going to be pretty good, and as we saw with the Steelers last year a good defense and great coaching is enough to not be bottom of the barrel bad. 

Him and Brady clearly have a sort of complicated and competitive relationship and I don't think he'd be able to stomach Brady winning in Tampa while he's getting his butt whooped. Even if he gets Lawrence in the end, all that does is create a narrative that Belichek couldn't win without being carried by elite QB's. And however much he may not care what the media or fans say on a day to day or week to week basis, I do think he cares a lot about his place and legacy in NFL history. He's enough of a competitive nutjob to be looking at this season as a chance to prove just how great he is once again - genuinely if he wins the AFC East with some Madden auto-generated QB, it'll be up there with some of his championships in terms of career accomplishments and he'd absolutely relish the opportunity to get to say he did that. 

Not to mention, he's still 50ish wins out from catching Shula for most wins all-time so punting a season at age 69 would be a pretty big gamble if he wants to get that record, which I would bet he does. 

Very excellent points. This is ultimately where I am on the matter. I think if Brady had retired Belichick MAYBE would pull such a maneuver, but I think it would be far more likely for the Patriots to use some sort of draft ammunition to get the QB (probably not Lawrence, but perhaps one of the next wave of guys) while being competitive.

On that note I have the Patriots winning the division with roughly 9 wins. The Bills are the more talented team and have the second best coach, but I’m not a believer in Josh Allen, i don’t think he’s terrible or bad. Rather I see him as an average player similar to a Joe Flacco; trading better accuracy for running ability.

So when the Bills run into those NFCW teams I don’t see them having the tactical (coaching) advantage in any of those games outside of MAYBE against the Cardinals. They also don’t necessarily have the talent/matchup advantage in any of those games either.

Whereas I see Belichick being on a mission this season to enhance his legacy. The Patriots now have a kicker they drafted that I’m sure they analyzed thoroughly before investing a pick in him, let alone considering his allegations with the tattoo. Belichick is someone I give the tactical advantage to over all of those other coaches, even though they’re all very good in their own right.

So while I see the AFCE largely splitting amongst the divisional games, I see the Patriots as a team that could go .500 possibly .75 against the NFCW while I think the Bills and Jets could potentially get swept or go .25 against those squads considering matchups and coaching prowess.

I see the division shaking out as something like;
Patriots: 9-7
Bills: 7-9
Jets: 7-9
Dolphins: 6-8

[kwolf68]

Going Bills. Still like their defense a lot. 

[jofos]

A lot has been said about the Patriots can't win the division because of how tough their schedule is but in terms of toughest schedule the Jets are 2nd, followed by the Dolphins at #3, and the Bills are tied for the 5th toughest schedule. 

[Hunter2_1]

On 22/05/2020 at 1:37 PM, DontTazeMeBro said:

Why wouldn’t they? If Stidham turns out to be an elite QB, ok sure. But lets operate under the assumption he won’t. They have almost zero shot of winning the Super Bowl. They can be like all the other franchises who don’t have a QB. Always drafting and hoping and trying to develop. Or take one trash season and get one of the highest rated prospects ever and probably instantly become Super Bowl contenders again. And unlike almost every other coach, Belichick actually has the job security to withstand a season like that. It’s a no brainer.

Oh I thought we had a system for QBs....?

OK serious answer; your proposition is too black and white, there is no grey area. Stidham clearly won't be elite, but it's highly probably he won't be a train wreck either. BB clearly see's something in him, Josh has coached up a number of QBs into more than serviceable pieces (Jimmy G for one), something at the HQ is helping the QBs to not be disasters. So with about average QB play, a good enough defense, BB coaching, a not-great division - the goal will be the same as always. To win the division. 

If JS completely sucks, I still can't see tanking, because BB finds ways to win games. NE will still be a hard team to beat. I think obvious 'tanking' from the coches and teams is just a fan-myth anyway. I could get on board with subtle institutianlised tanking which comes from the GM/board, but I don't see Kraft and co. doing that. Too proud, too used to winning, know how to win etc.

I think 7 or 8 wins is the floor, aim for 10, and that's knocking on the playoffs door. JMO.