How draft classes is Mahomes worth?

[patriotsheatyan]

Hypothetically, if you were the Chiefs and a team offered you a number of their entire draft classes for Mahomes, how many classes would you need to part with Mahomes?

[daineraider]

29 minutes ago, patriotsheatyan said:

Hypothetically, if you were the Chiefs and a team offered you a number of their entire draft classes for Mahomes, how many classes would you need to part with Mahomes?

Reword the title, as is it doesn’t make sense.  And if I were the Chiefs I wouldn’t listen to or entertain any offers.  You can search for years and years for a competent QB and not find one.  Mahomes is their franchise.  

[Soko]

Wouldn’t entertain any offers.

[Jakuvious]

It's the kind of theoretical trade where the value is never there for each side. It just isn't. Whatever number you throw out would simultaneously feel like too many draft classes for one team to give up, but still not enough for the Chiefs to feel they could give him up.

[whitehops]

I think it'd be a little different if the other team threw in their QB as well, so KC wasn't in a total lurch.

 

for example, if I'm the Vikings I would offer Cousins and the entire 2021 draft class. Whether KC takes that, I don't know.

[LeotheLion]

3

[Danger]

No

[RandyMossIsBoss]

I would say fair value for an MVP caliber, SB winning, young QB is about 3 or 4 draft classes. However, the Chiefs wouldn't give up Mahomes for anything short of a deal that included a franchise QB (and then some). Meanwhile no team would give up 3-4 draft classes for a single player, since there's no guarantees in the NFL (now if you could guarantee that Mahomes plays at the same level, or that your team can build the same system with the same talent, maybe you pull that trigger).

[Heinz D.]

37.

[Mr Raider]

8 minutes ago, Yin-Yang said:

Wouldn’t entertain any offers.

 

17 minutes ago, daineraider said:

Reword the title, as is it doesn’t make sense.  And if I were the Chiefs I wouldn’t listen to or entertain any offers.  You can search for years and years for a competent QB and not find one.  Mahomes is their franchise.  

I agree with this sentiment as long as he is on his rookie contract (and perhaps even with an extension depending on just how much it is). 

I also agree that whatever it would take isn't something another franchise could conceivably justify giving up for him even if his play and value is worth it. 

However, in a hypothetical situation, I wouldn't trade him while under his rookie contract. If he signs an extension for 40+ million a year and a team wanted to offer me 3 FULL draft classes and the immediate draft class was coming from a team picking in the top 5 I would consider it. I believe you can win with Mahomes even on a huge contract but the margin for error is much slimmer. You're counting on Mahomes being able to mask a lot of problems and overcome a consistent lack of young talent being able to be retained and free agents brought in to help. 

Even then I would be hesitant to pull the trigger because he's just that good and the cap is rising plus veterans will take a discount to come play with a talent like him to try and win a championship. It's a move that could easily backfire in your face and get you fired if you miss on the next QB you draft badly and/or Mahomes goes on to win and produce at the same level he has to this point. But 3 is what it would take to make me give it real consideration. Anything less and it's no deal, the more added the more likely I would be to pull the trigger. 

I would also need to trust that Andy was going to be there to help develop the next QB if I'm the Chiefs in this scenario for the next 3-5 years at least, and there would need to be a QB or two that I really loved in the next draft or two that I thought was close to a sure fire franchise guy. If all of those stars aligned I could see myself pulling the trigger and trusting that the next guy I drafted could be a QB capable of winning it all (though you can't go in ever expecting to find Mahomes 2.0), and the advantage to having him for peanuts plus the additional cap space that would offer to resign my young talent and add talent through free agency plus 3 drafts of having multiple first, second, and third round picks that should be able to come in and contribute to a team capable of winning it all. 

Even with all of that considered it would be so hard to pull the trigger. He's the most talented QB we have seen in a long time, that has come in and played at a level you just never expect to find in their first two years starting and already won a super bowl. It's hard to move on from that for anything. If you do the trade off could be a dynasty if everything is done right and falls into place, but you could just as easily be trading away 10-15 years of consistent winning for lottery tickets that never amount to anything. 

[Soko]

@Mr Raider Mahomes can have a deal that is structured so that he’s never not the highest paid QB in the league at any given time, and I still wouldn’t trade him, period lol. Even if I doubled my draft capital every offseason, if I hit on anybody worth their weight in salt, I’m going to have to pay them too. Including a potential QB. All a trade would do is push the ball down the road another 4 years or so while in-fluxing the team with temporarily cheap talent. Wouldn’t do that with the best QB in the league. 

[RaidersAreOne]

Well considering he's going to get like $50M per year, people should absolutely be listening to offers.

[JAF-N72EX]

Zero. Giving up a entire draft AND taking on his contract is way too much. . 

[NateDawg]

Is there really an equivalent value to a transcendent, young, future HOF QB who you know you are going to compete for more Super Bowls with?  I'm not sure how doubling your draft picks each year ever equals the value here.  So, no amount of years of draft picks does the job. 

[kingseanjohn]

10 years of 1st round picks and I'm considering it.

But more than likely, still not enough.

Edited May 19, 2020 by kingseanjohn