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How draft classes is Mahomes worth?


patriotsheatyan

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18 minutes ago, Yin-Yang said:

You said Pro Bowl + playoff(s) = “significant success”.

Read again.  I said "denotes success" in that post.  There are clearly other factors on top of that that turn it into significant success, such as the various QB rankings lists that Cousins and Tannehill topped last year that Trubisky, Young and company have never even sniffed.

18 minutes ago, Yin-Yang said:

It hasn’t been the primary problem, but it’s been a big one. Not turning this into a Skins debate, just figured you’d be more keen on the difficulties that come with a QB search considering the team hasn’t had one for a long time.

After seeing the amount of QBs who have won the SB who weren't considered elite QBs either before or after, I've become a strong believer that having an extremely strong team around a good QB on a rookie contract is much better than having an elite QB on a massive contract with a weak team around him.  You've been spoiled as a Patriots fan because your QB has taken deep discounts relative to his value, but that is far from normal and I don't see it ever happening again - at least to that degree.

18 minutes ago, Yin-Yang said:

Using an example of what could’ve happened (Rodgers for picks) with the benefit of hindsight as proof that what should/would happen (Mahomes for picks) doesn’t make sense.

I used 2011 Rodgers as a comparison because he's a similar level of talent to Mahomes.  It's a comparable "what-if" situation.  Obviously, it's hindsight.  But sitting here and trying to name prospects from the 2021, 2022 and 2023 draft classes as it relates to a current day Mahomes trade would be much more pointless.

18 minutes ago, Yin-Yang said:

The chart is for players who get drafted and start half their career. So by that standard, Mitch Trubisky - hit. Trent Richardson - hit. Chance Warmack - hit. JeMarcus Russell - hit. So yeah, maybe not the best measurement of hits/misses? 

There is no defined criteria for a "hit", so we can sit here in judgement of someone else's but that doesn't make us smarter or more right.  What is your criteria, and what is the hit rate associated with it?

Edited by HTTRDynasty
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Don’t know if this has been said but if this coming year the team with #1 overall pick (Trevor Lawrence) offered all of 2021 and 2022 I’d take it. And I’m a Chiefs fan.

You get a QB with Mahomes potential cheap again  plus a bunch on picks for an already stacked team.

Edited by Mizter_Clean10
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17 minutes ago, HTTRDynasty said:

Read again.  I said "denotes success" in that post.  There are clearly other factors on top of that that turn it into significant success, such as the various QB rankings lists that Cousins and Tannehill topped last year that Trubisky, Young and company have never even sniffed.

Suuure, a partial season pushes Tannehill over that edge into the Luck/Wilson territory. And Kirk’s certainly writing home in regards to his 1-3 playoff record.

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After seeing the amount of QBs who have won the SB who weren't considered elite QBs either before or after, I've become a strong believer that having an extremely strong team around a good QB on a rookie contract is much better than having an elite QB on a massive contract with a weak team around him. 

So I’ll again reference what I said above in regards to QB’s cap space - Arik Armstead + Amari Cooper, or Mahomes? 

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I used 2011 Rodgers as a comparison because he's a similar level of talent to Mahomes.  It's a comparable "what-if" situation.  Obviously, it's hindsight.  But sitting here and trying to name prospects from the 2021, 2022 and 2023 draft classes as it relates to a current day Mahomes trade would be much more pointless.

It’s not comparable, because you’re using hindsight in one and we’d have to project in the other. 

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There is no defined criteria for a "hit", so we can sit here in judgement of someone else's but that doesn't make us smarter or more right.  What is your criteria, and what is the hit rate associated with it?

If Pro Bowls denotes success, should we use Pro-Bowls? Half of all first and second rounders are pro bowlers? 

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9 minutes ago, Yin-Yang said:

Suuure, a partial season pushes Tannehill over that edge into the Luck/Wilson territory. And Kirk’s certainly writing home in regards to his 1-3 playoff record.

I never said Tannehill was in the Luck/Wilson territory.  That was your assumption.  I said I would be fine with any of those 5 QBs in addition to the massive haul I would receive.  That doesn't mean I don't have a preference between the 5 QBs or that I think they're on the same level.  Come on man.  Think a little.

10 minutes ago, Yin-Yang said:

So I’ll again reference what I said above in regards to QB’s cap space - Arik Armstead + Amari Cooper, or Mahomes? 

Why am I choosing between 2 players vs 1, when I could have ~21 vs 1 if I am getting 3 draft classes?

11 minutes ago, Yin-Yang said:

It’s not comparable, because you’re using hindsight in one and we’d have to project in the other. 

Project away.

11 minutes ago, Yin-Yang said:

If Pro Bowls denotes success, should we use Pro-Bowls? Half of all first and second rounders are pro bowlers? 

Lmao.

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3 hours ago, HTTRDynasty said:

Historic Success Chart

The numbers show us the following outline for finding consistent starters:

1st Round - OL (83%) LB (70%) TE (67%) DB (64%) QB (63%) WR (58%) RB (58%) DL (58%)

2nd Round - OL (70%) LB (55%) TE (50%) WR (49%) DB (46%) QB (27%) DL (26%) RB (25%)

3rd Round - OL (40%) TE (39%) LB (34%) DL (27%) WR (25%) DB (24%) QB (17%) RB (16%)

4th Round - DL (37%) TE (33%) OL (29%) LB (16%) WR(12%) DB (11%) RB (11%) QB (8%)

5th Round - TE (32%) DB (17%) WR (16%) OL (16%) DL (13%) RB (9%) LB (4%) QB (0%)

6th Round - TE (26%) OL (16%) DL (13%) WR (9%) DB (8%) RB (6%) LB (5%) QB (0%)

7th Round - DB (11%) OL (9%) QB (6%) WR (5%) DL (3%) LB (2%) RB (0%) TE (0%)

https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/20/8072877/what-the-statistics-tell-us-about-the-draft-by-round

Yeah, the criteria for this list is way too lenient. 

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1 minute ago, HTTRDynasty said:

I never said Tannehill was in the Luck/Wilson territory.  That was your assumption.  I said I would be fine with any of those 5 QBs in addition to the massive haul I would receive.  That doesn't mean I don't have a preference between the 5 QBs or that I think they're on the same level.  Come on man.  Think a little.

Yeah, I can’t imagine there are any Chiefs fans okay with going from Mahomes to Tannehill. Especially if you have to wait 7 years to get the version of him that’s worth anything. Cousins and Foles too. Too many teams content with mediocre QBs. Legit, I don’t think anyone in their right minds would be cool with going from Mahomes to Tannehill/Foles/Cousins.

1 minute ago, HTTRDynasty said:

Why am I choosing between 2 players vs 1, when I could have ~21 vs 1 if I am getting 3 draft classes?

If you were following, that was in reference to the Mahomes salary. Unless you want to divide it up even further - Breshad Perriman, Robby Anderson, and Arik Armstead? Eh, pass.

1 minute ago, HTTRDynasty said:

Project away.

Nah, projecting entire draft classes/pretending like a team will hit on the majority of their draft is a silly thing to do. Any trade would look good if I just draft HOFers and franchise QBs with all those picks. It’s so simple. 

1 minute ago, HTTRDynasty said:

Lmao.

Yeah...using Pro-Bowls as measurements of success is pretty funny, huh? ;)

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2 minutes ago, Yin-Yang said:

Yeah, I can’t imagine there are any Chiefs fans okay with going from Mahomes to Tannehill. Especially if you have to wait 7 years to get the version of him that’s worth anything. Cousins and Foles too. Too many teams content with mediocre QBs. Legit, I don’t think anyone in their right minds would be cool with going from Mahomes to Tannehill/Foles/Cousins.

Yes, let's leave out the 20 other players you'd be getting.  Makes sense.

3 minutes ago, Yin-Yang said:

If you were following, that was in reference to the Mahomes salary. Unless you want to divide it up even further - Breshad Perriman, Robby Anderson, and Arik Armstead? Eh, pass.

The impact players from the trade would be on rookie salaries.

6 minutes ago, Yin-Yang said:

Nah, projecting entire draft classes/pretending like a team will hit on the majority of their draft is a silly thing to do. Any trade would look good if I just draft HOFers and franchise QBs with all those picks. It’s so simple. 

I get it.  You're just here to critique without offering anything of substance.  

7 minutes ago, Yin-Yang said:

Yeah...using Pro-Bowls as measurements of success is pretty funny, huh? ;)

Only in your world does a draft hit = Pro-Bowl.

Deuces :).

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16 hours ago, Jakuvious said:

Likely? I disagree very much. So you take a team, not good enough to win another superbowl WITH Rodgers. You remove Rodgers. Assuming you take a QB that same offseason, you draft one of, Newton, Gabbert, Ponder, Locker, Kaepernick, Dalton as the heir? Huge downgrade there, regardless of how right or wrong they get it. Get it real wrong, you may have straight torpedoed that team for the next 3 years. Now, for the mass of picks, the Packers drafted 29 players between 2011 and 2013. 7, or about 1/4, of those players are still in the league (I'm not going to count Guy, as he never played a snap as a Packer.) All but one have moved onto other teams. Tretter, Hyde, and Heyward all left after their rookie deals. So even if you add 21 picks, get another 5ish long term players, keep a few more past rookie deals without paying Rodgers, you're not getting a superbowl team out of that swap. Even if they get absurdly lucky, wait until 2012 to trade him, send him to Indy for the draft that would include a shot at Luck, I still wouldn't say that team probably wins another superbowl.

Reality is, a huge chunk of those picks they get are busts or throwaways. You're getting, if you're lucky, a handful of good players from those picks. Not even great ones, but good ones. And you know the 2012 and 2013 picks will be lower as that team now has Rodgers and their prospects are improving. So only year one has high pick potential, and you'll know that from who you trade with. If they nail them all, sure, they'd likely win a superbowl, but that's not a realistic expectation.

I get what you're saying but you assume they use that draft capital to get a rookie. They could easily take some of that and get a slightly lesser QB and still be loaded with draft capital

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1 minute ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

I get what you're saying but you assume they use that draft capital to get a rookie. They could easily take some of that and get a slightly lesser QB and still be loaded with draft capital

I would argue that using any of that draft capital to acquire a lesser veteran QB would be the worst possible investment. Your mid-tier QBs right now are getting $21M - $27M per year. That would be the worst value possible, IMO. I get that $40M is a lot, but value wise, Mahomes is a much better value at $40M than say, Bridgewater is at $21M, or Carr at $25M. You're not getting a bargain bin vet QB anymore, unless they reach that free agency point where no one wants them (Winston this year, for instance.) You're either paying $20M+ or going with the draft, and I feel like the former just gets rid of half the reason people are arguing that a trade could be beneficial in the first place.

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1 minute ago, Jakuvious said:

I would argue that using any of that draft capital to acquire a lesser veteran QB would be the worst possible investment. Your mid-tier QBs right now are getting $21M - $27M per year. That would be the worst value possible, IMO. I get that $40M is a lot, but value wise, Mahomes is a much better value at $40M than say, Bridgewater is at $21M, or Carr at $25M. You're not getting a bargain bin vet QB anymore, unless they reach that free agency point where no one wants them (Winston this year, for instance.) You're either paying $20M+ or going with the draft, and I feel like the former just gets rid of half the reason people are arguing that a trade could be beneficial in the first place.

You could acquire a more proven QB on a rookie contract still. Your window is smaller before the big payday but could see a quick turnaround

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1 minute ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

You could acquire a more proven QB on a rookie contract still. Your window is smaller before the big payday but could see a quick turnaround

I mean....how? A trade requires two willing partners. Like, is what you're suggesting that you trade for like, Josh Allen or something? Because with that I feel we're going a step too far into the hypotheticals. At that point, we're talking about trading Mahomes for a bunch of draft capital, turning around and trading some of that earned draft capital for, I can only think like a Josh Allen or Kyler Murray or something? The list of somewhat proven QBs on a rookie contract is not long, and teams won't really want to part with them. It may just wind up costing almost as much as what you earned in the first place, for a downgrade. I get that the thread is unrealistic in the first place, but I feel like this kind of scenario is even more unrealistic.

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5 minutes ago, Jakuvious said:

I mean....how? A trade requires two willing partners. Like, is what you're suggesting that you trade for like, Josh Allen or something? Because with that I feel we're going a step too far into the hypotheticals. At that point, we're talking about trading Mahomes for a bunch of draft capital, turning around and trading some of that earned draft capital for, I can only think like a Josh Allen or Kyler Murray or something? The list of somewhat proven QBs on a rookie contract is not long, and teams won't really want to part with them. It may just wind up costing almost as much as what you earned in the first place, for a downgrade. I get that the thread is unrealistic in the first place, but I feel like this kind of scenario is even more unrealistic.

You're not wrong, if we're talking about a world where Mahomes is traded then anything is possible. 

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32 minutes ago, HTTRDynasty said:

Yes, let's leave out the 20 other players you'd be getting.  Makes sense.

Draft picks + Foles/Tannehill/Cousins for Mahomes? Easy choice.

32 minutes ago, HTTRDynasty said:

The impact players from the trade would be on rookie salaries.

Once again, was referencing that cap space. 

But the handful of impact players you’d get would be worth more than Mahomes. You’re betting on a bunch of hits in the draft at the sacrifice of the best QB in the league, and even if it works, it’s only for 3-5 years before they need to be paid too.

32 minutes ago, HTTRDynasty said:

I get it.  You're just here to critique without offering anything of substance.  

If you think Mahomes is worth x amount of picks, that’s fine. My issue was that you were using hindsight to talk about how great a Rodgers trade would’ve been. That doesn’t make sense. 

32 minutes ago, HTTRDynasty said:

Only in your world does a draft hit = Pro-Bowl.

Deuces :).

You were using pro bowls + having 1 win in the playoffs in order to demonstrate “success”. You then used starts as a measurement of draft hits.  Yikes...

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On 5/18/2020 at 6:19 PM, patriotsheatyan said:

Hypothetically, if you were the Chiefs and a team offered you a number of their entire draft classes for Mahomes, how many classes would you need to part with Mahomes?

the 2018 and 2019, 2020 ones at least

Edited by Malfatron
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