2020 Packers Defensive Backs

[vegas492]

2 hours ago, spilltray said:

I don't even think there is a serious plan or intent to resign Jones. If Dillon shows he can play a bit this year, then it's not even really a consideration. RB just aren't worth investing the kind of money Jones will get if he has another good season. He's a good RB but unless you have a GREAT RB, they aren't worth paying top end deals IMO.

I agree.  If he was in their plans, he would have signed an extension by now.  What we've heard out of Jones' camp is that they've had "discussions".  Probably agent initiated or a deal would be done already.

I'm not going to like it when he leaves, because I am a Jones fan, but I get it.  And I'd much, much, much rather pay a starting corner a second contract than a starting running back.

[Brat&Beer]

It will be interesting to see what the going rates for top RB's will be. It could be a buyer's market. Reason is the list of RB's set to hit free agency in 2021 is incredible. It includes:

Derrick Henry, Kenyan Drake, Leonard Fournette, Todd Gurley, Kareem Hunt, Dalvin Cook, Joe Mixon, Alvin Kamara,James Conner, Tarik Cohen, Marlon Mack, as well as Jones. 

 

[gizmo2012]

36 minutes ago, vegas492 said:

I agree.  If he was in their plans, he would have signed an extension by now.  What we've heard out of Jones' camp is that they've had "discussions".  Probably agent initiated or a deal would be done already.

I'm not going to like it when he leaves, because I am a Jones fan, but I get it.  And I'd much, much, much rather pay a starting corner a second contract than a starting running back.

It is nuts to not sign the star RB the Packers have been wanting for many years. Aaron Jones is not just a good RB he is a star and is key in the running and passing game. Trust me Dillon may be a good RB someday but he will never be Aaron Jones.......ever.

[Shanedorf]

For the Packers defensive backs, its going to be a very steep climb for the youngsters to make the squad this year. The bolded ones below won't have an NFL offseason or TC under their belt when they arrive to 2020 TC and Jerry Gray will only have a few weeks with them before cuts.
Additionally, NFL is looking at reducing the number of players in camp, little sense in exposing the full team to guys who aren't going to make the 53.
TC might only be 75 instead of 90.

CB Room

Jaire Alexander
Kevin King
Tramon Williams
Chandon Sullivan
Josh Jackson
Ka'Dar Hollman
Will Sunderland
Kabion Ento
Stanford Samuels
DeShaun Amos
Marc-Antoine Dequoy
 

Safety Room

Darnell Savage
Adrian Amos
Raven Greene
Will Redmond
Vernon Scott
Henry Black
Frankie Griffin

 

[Shanedorf]

"Green Bay Packers defensive back Chandon Sullivan (39) drops a potential interception during the fourth quarter of their game at Lambeau Field"
 

How the hell can a professional DB drop this INT ? He's in perfect position, eyes focused, arms ready and nobody hitting him

 

[OneTwoSixFive]

2 hours ago, gizmo2012 said:

It is nuts to not sign the star RB the Packers have been wanting for many years. Aaron Jones is not just a good RB he is a star and is key in the running and passing game. Trust me Dillon may be a good RB someday but he will never be Aaron Jones.......ever.

...........just as Jones will never be a Dillon, they are very different RBs.

You are in a fairly small minority in believing it would be nuts not to sign Jones, for while we all like what he has done, RBs tend not to earn a big second contract on good teams, who already have the big money tied up in prime positions like GB have, at QB, pass rushers, offensive tackles, WR1 and soon at DT with Clark.

It's like a head versus heart decision, the heart says keep him, the head says there are more important positions to pay the big bucks. What makes it even worse for Jones is that the Packers have shelled out a second round pick for a RB..............their plan is pretty obvious.

I don't expect Jones to accept a lowball offer, he has every right to want to get paid relative to the level he has produced. However, given all the circumstances, I very much doubt he is with the Packers in 2021. The bottom line is that RBs generally get a very poor deal in the NFL - it isn't fair on the RBs, but that is life in the NFL.

Edited July 1, 2020 by OneTwoSixFive

[vegas492]

2 hours ago, gizmo2012 said:

It is nuts to not sign the star RB the Packers have been wanting for many years. Aaron Jones is not just a good RB he is a star and is key in the running and passing game. Trust me Dillon may be a good RB someday but he will never be Aaron Jones.......ever.

I.  Love.  Aaron.  Jones.

Despite that, all the evidence out there points to NOT giving big second contracts to running backs.

Now...if he wants a deal similar to what Eckler got?  Now it makes sense.  

[vegas492]

11 minutes ago, Shanedorf said:

"Green Bay Packers defensive back Chandon Sullivan (39) drops a potential interception during the fourth quarter of their game at Lambeau Field"
 

How the hell can a professional DB drop this INT ? He's in perfect position, eyes focused, arms ready and nobody hitting him

 

Because his number isn't 89.

[vegas492]

8 minutes ago, OneTwoSixFive said:

...........just as Jones will never be a Dillon, they are very different RBs.

You are in a fairly small minority in believing it would be nuts not to sign Jones, for while we all like what he has done, RBs tend not to earn a big second contract on good teams, who already have the big money tied up in prime positions like GB have, at QB, pass rushers, offensive tackles, WR1 and soon at DT with Clark.

It's like a head versus heart decision, the heart says keep him, the head says there are more important positions to pay the big bucks. What makes it even worse for Jones is that the Packers have shelled out a second round pick for a RB..............their plan is pretty obvious.

OL is more important in the running game, right?  ...versus a RB.

Me....despite my deep admiration for Jones, I'd rather they continue to invest in the OL.

[spilltray]

Show me the "star RB" who have been worth paying top end contracts. The only one who even really has a CHANCE to be worth it is McCaffery, because he's almost as much a WR as a RB. Outside that from Todd Gurley to David Johnson to Leveon Bell, teams usually regret signing those deals, and often pretty quickly.

I don't want to pay Jones a deal similar to David Johnson, and based on his play, he probably expects at least that ballpark. You have to be cheap SOMEWHERE and RB is really the best position to cycle through young guys.

[CWood21]

1 hour ago, spilltray said:

Show me the "star RB" who have been worth paying top end contracts. The only one who even really has a CHANCE to be worth it is McCaffery, because he's almost as much a WR as a RB. Outside that from Todd Gurley to David Johnson to Leveon Bell, teams usually regret signing those deals, and often pretty quickly.

I don't want to pay Jones a deal similar to David Johnson, and based on his play, he probably expects at least that ballpark. You have to be cheap SOMEWHERE and RB is really the best position to cycle through young guys.

I'm not sure anyone is advocating paying him elite RB money ($13M+), especially given his price tag will probably never be higher than it is after this past season.  There were only four players who had 15+ TDs: Christian McCaffrey, Aaron Jones, Derrick Henry, and Mark Ingram.  I think we've discussed that next tier ($8M/year) is probably the level of contract the Packers are going to be comfortable with.  Something along the lines of 3 years, $24M.

[craig]

On 7/1/2020 at 7:43 AM, spilltray said:

I don't even think there is a serious plan or intent to resign Jones. If Dillon shows he can play a bit this year, then it's not even really a consideration. RB just aren't worth investing the kind of money Jones will get if he has another good season. He's a good RB but unless you have a GREAT RB, they aren't worth paying top end deals IMO.

I don't think I agree with some of the RB logic here.  Almost every GM in the league has the same info about big running back contracts.  

"Top end deals", Jones isn't going to get a top end deal from anybody.   Even for "top end" for RB, obviously those are still nothing like QB or OLB or CB or WR or DL or OT.  With all of the other high-profile RB's who will hit the market, Jones will be subject to normal market forces.  Which do NOT necessitate some budget-busting deal.  

This is a league where Blake martinez gets $30/3.  Corey Linsley, cap hit $10.5.  Billy Turner $8.1.  Jimmy Graham was $12.7.  An $8-12 deal is not really "top end" and is NOT a budget-busting, top-market type of deal.  Everybody has at least one $10-ish deal that isn't working out.  

I'm suggesting that a contract that averages $10 is NOT "top end" and is not a budget-buster.  I think that given both the supply of RB (large) and the market demand for RB (modest), that Jones is not going to command a budget-busting contract.  

So I'm not convinced that resigning him would necessarily require a bad-value overpay.  There's a reasonable chance that he'll be available at a reasonable-value fair price, and will provide pretty good value-per-dollar on his second contract.  

 

[craig]

To argue against myself, a "CORP" (Cost over Replacement Player) perspective is helpful.    

Packers let Bulaga ($10/per) go for Ricky Wagner, $4.8 cap.  Bulaga's CORP would have been $5.2.  

Suppose Jones were to cost $9.5, when you'd otherwise be good to go with Dexter Williams at $0.5, then Jones' CORP is $9.  

If they let Bulaga go over $5 CORP, might letting Jones go over $9 CORP be pretty plausible?  

I'm not sure letting jones go over $6 CORP; so if I'm choosing between Jones at $9.5 versus Jamaal williams at $3.5 ($6 CORP), I'm totally NOT going with Williams, I'm going to pay the extra $6 and go with Jones.  

 

[Beast]

It'll be interesting to see how the DBs do against the much better QBs the Packers are going to face this year. As they're going to face the 3 top QBs from last year again, and then 4 more QBs whom are all better than all the opposing QBs from last year. This year's list of opposing QBs us so much better than last year, I think even if the DBs are able to improve themselves, the results will struggle more because the opposing QBs will be so much better. (On the opposite side of the coin, the opposing defenses might be a lot better, making the Packers offense look a lot better, even if he doesn't improve, and it should improve in their second year).

 

As for this side convo on the RBs, in this wide zone scheme, if you look around the league, they almost always have a large RB with some power in their game starting, with a quick guy as the backup. The two exception to that were the Packers and Vikings, whom are both fairly new to the scheme and have drafted a power RB in the top 3 rounds in the last two years, plus Vikings smaller speed Guy has impressive power relative to his smaller size.

Now the RB market is extremely tough right now, because on one hand, some RBs just clearly raised the RB market which will have RBs and their agents looking at higher values... but poor history in return on investment into RBs and cap possible taking a hit to lower revenue income due to the coronavirus pandemic, means teams will certainly be looking at lower values, so unless some player is willing to take a big discount or some team absolutely loves a guy (Derrick Henry maybe) then I don't see many RB contracts getting completed until next off-season.

If Aaron Jones is willing to take the top paid backup price, sign him NOW! If he's willing to sign an average RB starter, you probably sign him (depending on how much they have left over after Bak, Clark and maybe King (depends on how Long plays this year).... Linsley is probably gone).

I would love to have Thunder and Lightning in Dillion and Jones, and this scheme is probably as close to perfect for Jones in that it doesn't ask their RBs to be in pass protection as much (where Jones continually got banged up on blocking guys, even though he become good at it, he struggled more staying healthy with it), and asks RBs to be receivers more which works well with Jones.

But I feel like the RB in this scheme will be a star, and that while Jones is extremely talented, this scheme being prefect to him helped a lot too, but as LaFleur said, he wants to be able to use power runs more too, which I guess he felt he was limited in last year.

And we might be able to sign Jamaal Williams and Tyler Ervin for less than what Jones might cost. Which they're not as talented, but more versatile, in that Williams is literally a jack of all trades and might be one hell of a RB/FB/H-Back and Ervin on return duties, gadget player and speed decoy.

 

[Shanedorf]

Josh Jackson is good when he's facing the ball