Jump to content

Onside kick versus 4th and 15


AngusMcFife

Recommended Posts

3 hours ago, lancerman said:

My issue is putting a team back on offense. That doesn’t fix it. And if you are just young to make it harder, just do the onside kick

What he's saying is, if it's too easy, make it harder until it's appropriate. The whole source of this problem is that the onside kick is now too unlikely. They want to get back close to the old success rate with this change. Old success rate was like 16%. So Incognito is saying, hey, if 4th and 15 winds up with like a 25% success rate or something (and a few in the thread have suggested it might be too easy), just add the necessary amount of yards to bring it back down to 16%. Get it to the desired amount of difficulty.

Because right now, onside kicks are like 10%, and have been trending downwards. The league outside Koo was like 6% last year. They want it to be easier than that.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

50 minutes ago, Jakuvious said:

What he's saying is, if it's too easy, make it harder until it's appropriate. The whole source of this problem is that the onside kick is now too unlikely. They want to get back close to the old success rate with this change. Old success rate was like 16%. So Incognito is saying, hey, if 4th and 15 winds up with like a 25% success rate or something (and a few in the thread have suggested it might be too easy), just add the necessary amount of yards to bring it back down to 16%. Get it to the desired amount of difficulty.

Because right now, onside kicks are like 10%, and have been trending downwards. The league outside Koo was like 6% last year. They want it to be easier than that.

It was always supposed to be unlikely. The game was not designed with the idea of a team getting back on offense right after a score. 
 

Teams took the rules of the kickoff and took a risky short kick that they might recover in an absolutely desperate situation. It was an attempt to manipulate the kickoff rules to get the ball back. It was an established play to give a team a chance. It’s really no different than when players get aggressive when teams try to take a knee besides that this has better odds. The kickoff rules changing and hurting that is just natural.
 

Adding a play in is saying this is a necessary feature of the game. It was already a low percent play that was already manipulating existing rules. It’s still a 9%-6% chance and teams still will attempt it if necessary. 
 

No reason to change the entire game by adding in an arbitrary offensive possession at the coaches discretion 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, lancerman said:

It was always supposed to be unlikely. The game was not designed with the idea of a team getting back on offense right after a score. 
 

Teams took the rules of the kickoff and took a risky short kick that they might recover in an absolutely desperate situation. It was an attempt to manipulate the kickoff rules to get the ball back. It was an established play to give a team a chance. It’s really no different than when players get aggressive when teams try to take a knee besides that this has better odds. The kickoff rules changing and hurting that is just natural.
 

Adding a play in is saying this is a necessary feature of the game. It was already a low percent play that was already manipulating existing rules. It’s still a 9%-6% chance and teams still will attempt it if necessary. 
 

No reason to change the entire game by adding in an arbitrary offensive possession at the coaches discretion 

Unlikely, yes. But they're trying to get it back to the previous amount of unlikely. There's a huge difference between 6% and 15% in terms of what that means for the game, particularly for viewers and fans. They want it to be unlikely but feel the right amount of possible. Right or wrong, part of what they unquestionably want is to keep people from going home or tuning out when it's 31-17 late in the 4th. You have 3 successful onside kicks a year and that's not enough to make it feel worthwhile.

I'd liken it to moving back the PAT. It was a move to try to shift back to old success rates, basically. In that case, success rate had gotten too high, it felt like a pointless tag on, so they made a move to lower it back to a more original probability. Gave it a meaningful failure rate again.

I won't argue any of your points about it being somewhat unnatural. You're not wrong there. It is an arbitrary creation, not a natural result of the rules. But I was just responding to your point earlier, where you seemed to miss that they're targeting a certain level of difficulty, and 6% - 9% doesn't hit that. They want a specific success rate that's higher than that. If this change winds up being too easy, they can move it further, if it winds up being too hard, they can move it up. It's an easily adjustable thing, compared to trying to offset the kickoff rule changes.

I think what they're ultimately saying with this, isn't that this play is necessary for the game, but the potential for a late game comeback is necessary for the game. From a strict rules perspective, maybe not. From a spectator sport perspective, I can see the logic behind it. Personally I just like the openness to trying new things. Easy to roll it back if it winds up being crap.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I’d like to see them abolish the kickoff altogether and replace with a 4th and 15 from their own 35 yards line.

 

That would mean most teams would choose to punt and an average net punt would put teams starting at their own 25 as now. If you go for it you’d have to reach midfield to keep the ball. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Only eight of 63 (12.7 percent) onside kick attempts in the NFL were recovered in 2019, per NFL Research. As for fourth-and-15s last year, only seven were attempted and only two were converted, but it was still a higher percentage at 28.6.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think its way too easy to convert a 4th and 15.   I think they should only allow it to be executed with the backup QB.   Maybe even make it where only the special team's players can contribute in the key offensive spots WR/TE/HB/ etc...  I'm sure someone will find a reason why this isn't good as I haven't really thought it through fully, I just think it would be really cool to add another dimension to the game/roster.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, sryan66611 said:

I think its way too easy to convert a 4th and 15

Okay then why don't more teams do it more when they're at on the opponent's 42 yard line?

13 minutes ago, sryan66611 said:

 I think they should only allow it to be executed with the backup QB

I love this idea, but only if the normal kick returners have to play nose tackle

Edited by DannyB
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 hours ago, Turnobili said:

Only eight of 63 (12.7 percent) onside kick attempts in the NFL were recovered in 2019, per NFL Research. As for fourth-and-15s last year, only seven were attempted and only two were converted, but it was still a higher percentage at 28.6.

The historical data with 4th and 15 shows a similar rate - but the beauty is that if it's too easy, they change it to 4th and 20, etc.

The one problem with the present proposal though is that they allow more than a simple conversion - you could get 30, 40, 50 yards, or a TD.  You could NEVER get that with an onsides recovery.  That alone is a good enough reason for the rule to not pass IMO - but I do think its time is coming, if onside recovery with ATL's Koo as the kicker is basically a single-digit likely event.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...