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AngusMcFife

Onside kick versus 4th and 15

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The only way this rule should be remotely considered.

Is, if it is a 1-time use. A "nuclear" option so to speak.

You get 1 shot to do it. (Per game) That's it!

Not every damn time you score. That's ridiculous.

That, I would be ok with. 

 

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I'm convinced that Bill Belichick will find a way to game this rule and punt it and gain an advantage somehow.

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1 hour ago, lavar703 said:

If you’re the chiefs, eagles or Bucs (explosive offenses) and you’re playing a team like the Bengals or Redskins and you scored first you wouldn’t just attempt a 4th and 15 to get the ball back? At worst your opponent ties the game but a bad team is most likely ending up with a field goal. So worst case scenario your opponent ties the game but best case scenario the more talented team converts the 4th and 15 scenario and scores again. I mean, this rule has the potential to give a team like the chiefs a 21-0 advantage before their opponent even touches the ball. Yes that’s a long shot to happen but the chance is still there and much more so than converting on onside kicks. 

God no. Why give a team like that unnecessary life? The odds of just continuing to beat a team we think we're better than are WAY higher than the odds of converting a 4th and 15.

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1 hour ago, Jakuvious said:

God no. Why give a team like that unnecessary life? The odds of just continuing to beat a team we think we're better than are WAY higher than the odds of converting a 4th and 15.

Yeah it makes no sense. The value of possibly getting the ball back to go up 14-0 just isn't anywhere near worth the risk of giving the ball to a clearly inferior team already in range to get points. The Chiefs offense is downright ridiculous, but even as good as they are they are going to have a tough time converting 4th and 15. Picking up 15 yards on one play when the other team knows that you need 15 yards in one play is very very difficult. Even if you're playing a bad team. It's one play. 

There's just no reason you would take the risk to POSSIBLY go up 2 scores early in the game immediately, and it's not like the conversion ends in points so you would still have to have a successful, long drive. You kick the ball and force that clearly inferior team to sustain a drive to get points. Not gift wrap them some if you fail so you can maybe go up 2 scores if you can convert a low percentage play. 

The better your team is, and the worse the team you're playing it incentives you less to try something like that. And even a bad team playing a team better than them where the idea of jumping out to an early two score lead sounds enticing and is more important, you still just simply can't risk attempting something like that and shooting yourself in the foot if you fail on a play that probably fails 80+% of the time.

I just can't see any scenario where teams would try and use the 4th and 15 unless they're in desperation mode. Yeah the idea of getting the ball back and possibly scoring without the opponent touching the ball sounds fantastic, but you still have to weigh that benefit against the likelihood you fail, and unless you're trailing late in the game that risk/reward just doesn't match up to jump out to a bigger lead. Particularly if you're a good team with confidence in your ability to score consistently. No reason not to trust your defense to get the ball back, and even if they can't if you have an elite offense no reason to not trust you'll continue to score without having to open up the door for quick, easy points to the opposition based on your ability to execute one long play. 

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3 hours ago, aceinthehouse said:

Nothing good can come from this rule.

Onside kick is part of football. Quit screwing with the game.

Can you imagine playing on the road...

You're up 31 to 14 & the beginning of the 4th qtr.

You bring in your backups so they can get some significant playing time. You've dominated all game with your starters.

 

The opposing team scores a FG. 31 to 17

Chooses the 4th & 15 option, instead of onside kick.

1st play= Defensive Holding

"Automatic 1st down"

1st & 10=pass

2nd & 2=run

1st & 10=pass

1st & 10=pass

"TD" Xtra point good

31 to 24

Opposing team chooses the 4th & 15 option...again.

4th & 15=(Incomplete) Defensive Pass Interference

"Automatic 1st down"

1st & 10= TD Xtra pt good

31-31 tie

Your team not only got screwed on 2 controversial calls on defense, to put the game away.

But your starting Offense NEVER got to see the ball, to challenge the opposing teams defense.

Not because they recovered difficult onside kicks...

But because their team was given the ball on 2 different possessions & the referee's were able to dictate  & change the momentum of the game.

Not because the opposing team earned it. 

Yes, I see where this rule is going.

Just another way for the officials to decide the outcome of games.

Leave the game alone.

Make them onside kick it & get it back.

I VOTE "NO"

I was going to make a big ole post about how penalties will cripple this rule, but thankfully, you already did. 

I've see far too many terrible referees to trust them to NOT screw this up. 

Couple that with the fact that this rule benefits teams with big play style vertical offenses over run based or west coast style game plans and it's a non-starter for me.

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5 hours ago, Yin-Yang said:

I’m not sure I understand your question. The Bengals shouldn’t have the same chance at the ball as the Chiefs if the Bengals just scored. However, the Bengals should have an equal chance to “double up” as the Chiefs do when the Chiefs score, which I don’t think would be the case with that rule change.

Yeah, I didn't mean those two teams were playing each other in this scenario. I meant, independently, you think a bad offensive team should have just as good of a a chance at getting possession back, as a good offensive team would have. And that's fine, but I guess personally I don't mind that how GOOD you are as a team comes into play a little bit. I don't want it to be a great chance for ANY team, but I don't mind if a good team has a few percentage points better of a chance. To me, that's kinda fair, since they're better. Talent and execution should win games as much as possible, rather than a dice roll. Just like a team with a great defense will be better qualified to stop it.

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Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, DannyB said:

Yeah, I didn't mean those two teams were playing each other in this scenario. I meant, independently, you think a bad offensive team should have just as good of a a chance at getting possession back, as a good offensive team would have. And that's fine, but I guess personally I don't mind that how GOOD you are as a team comes into play a little bit. I don't want it to be a great chance for ANY team, but I don't mind if a good team has a few percentage points better of a chance. To me, that's kinda fair, since they're better. Talent and execution should win games as much as possible, rather than a dice roll. Just like a team with a great defense will be better qualified to stop it.

Who knows the numbers, honestly. I’d bet if you take say the 32nd, 24th 16th, 8th, and 1st ranked offense’s conversation rates on a 3rd or 4th and 15, it’d be significant. More than a few percentage points, but that’s just a guess.

If this were going to be a thing, I’d push it to 20 yards at least and make it independent from the next possession. I’d stick the team that just scored on the 20 yard line and tell them to score. 

I also like college OT - so I know my opinions aren’t the norm around here...

Edited by Yin-Yang

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29 minutes ago, Yin-Yang said:

If this were going to be a thing, I’d push it to 20 yards at least and make it independent from the next possession

Yeah, I mean if the numbers don't bear out to be difficult enough, I'm fine with 20. I also think the second part of what you said is important. My inclination is to make the play a binary proposition: either you convert and gain possession, or you don't. I don't think I'd want it to be a potential scoring play. I don't like the idea of giving the team a free hail mary without making them work to gain possession first.

 

31 minutes ago, Yin-Yang said:

I’d stick the team that just scored on the 20 yard line and tell them to score. 

Okay now you've confused me. Now you're saying instead of the scenario being discussed, i.e., a single down to try and pick up a first down that's 15, or 20 yards away, you want them to get the ball at...their own 20? the opponents 20? And they have to score? Sorry I'm confused.

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8 minutes ago, DannyB said:

Okay now you've confused me. Now you're saying instead of the scenario being discussed, i.e., a single down to try and pick up a first down that's 15, or 20 yards away, you want them to get the ball at...their own 20? the opponents 20? And they have to score? Sorry I'm confused.

Bengals vs Chiefs. Joe Burrow TD to Tee Higgins, extra point is good. Zac Taylor opts to try and keep the ball on the next possession, Burrow stays out there and gets the ball on the Chiefs 20. One shot to get into the end zone, a successful attempt results in possession on the Bengals 20 (or 25, whatever), an unsuccessful attempt results in Chiefs ball in Bengals territory. I think having it this way helps even it out a bit by giving the offense a little less field to work with.

I’m not sure about the specifics regarding the proposed change, but I’d prefer something like what I said above instead of an immediate and legitimate 4th-and-15 on the Bengals 25 yard line, where the Bengals can score or advance the ball on that possession. 

You’d have to toy with penalties, possibly get rid of the automatic first downs. A turnover for a TD should result in points going the other way too. Maybe I’m warming up to it...

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13 minutes ago, Yin-Yang said:

Bengals vs Chiefs. Joe Burrow TD to Tee Higgins, extra point is good. Zac Taylor opts to try and keep the ball on the next possession, Burrow stays out there and gets the ball on the Chiefs 20. One shot to get into the end zone, a successful attempt results in possession on the Bengals 20 (or 25, whatever), an unsuccessful attempt results in Chiefs ball in Bengals territory. I think having it this way helps even it out a bit by giving the offense a little less field to work with.

I’m not sure about the specifics regarding the proposed change, but I’d prefer something like what I said above instead of an immediate and legitimate 4th-and-15 on the Bengals 25 yard line, where the Bengals can score or advance the ball on that possession. 

You’d have to toy with penalties, possibly get rid of the automatic first downs. A turnover for a TD should result in points going the other way too. Maybe I’m warming up to it...

Oooh okay, I get what you mean. That's an interesting twist to it, and would certainly make it tougher on the offense.

The penalty aspect is tough. Like I said a few posts ago, I don't want cheapie, ticky tack calls on the defense result in an immediate first down, but you also can't incentivize the defense being able to just MUG receivers straight onto their *****.

But overall, it feels like SOMEWHERE in this general idea, there is a pretty decent option to try.

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I think it's a great idea. The league has needed an onside replacement since they nerfed it with the rule changes. Getting 15 yards in a play is pretty low-percentage stuff, especially in a situation where the defense knows the pass is always coming. Seriously cannot wait for the first coach who tries a draw play or shovel pass in this situation. It's gonna be hilarious.

On another note: Running four verts or Hail Mary with Lamar Jackson will be a cheat code in Madden for this play xD 

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12 hours ago, BleedTheClock said:

If you’re a better team, why would you risk it? There is like a 10/15% chance of converting it at best. It would be royally stupid and coaches get fired over dumb decisions like that. No way would ANY team in the league use this with a lead. I’d be willing to bet that never happens as long as this rule exists...if it ever exists. 

And you’d lose that bet.

There will be games where both offenses haven’t been stopped all game. A 45-42 type where the defenses haven’t stopped a nose bleed and the offenses are getting whatever they want. Maybe a few starting corners are banged up and one leaves mid game, who knows. But a team that’s up 4/5 with ~3mins left that has absolutely no faith in their defense will try and convert to ice the game. That will happen at some point. 

Dont think it should sway the implementation of the rule one way or the other, and it’s not innately a bad thing, but that scenario will definitely happen under that rule. 

Betting that would never happen is like saying “I bet no NFL team would ever voluntarily choose to kick off in OT” when the rule was sudden death - even with a FG. It certainly goes against conventional football wisdom, but teams had done it. They would do this with a lead at some point as well.

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As a fan of a team in the same division with Pat Mahomes, I'm not in favor of this rule change.

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Meh, Just modify the kick somehow. I like to see KICKOFFS (of some type) after a score

I know they don't want the kicking team with a running start, maybe make the travel less than 10 yards, Let the kickers "punt" the ball instead where it has a big hang time and becomes a sort of jump ball, or let the punters do some kind of "trick kick" to make it hard to track or catch or something

Punters already kickoff after safeties, so it isn't too foreign

"4th and 15 is too "gimmicky" Feels like Arena league nonsense

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