Onside kick versus 4th and 15

[lancerman]

I think it’s stupid and it’s a byproduct of one of the reasons I am having issues with the league. 
 

The onside kick is just a function of the kickoff rules. It’s a feature of something that has already existed for years. It’s like how part of passing the ball also allows for interceptions. 
 

A 4th and 15 is just a completely manufactured system that has nothing to do with how the game is played to add a special last chance element. Almost no major sport has a feature where the coach arbitrarily gets to decide “no we will stay on offense and attempt a high risk play to have a chance to win”z 

[lancerman]

18 hours ago, DannyB said:

Nope.  After one team scores, the other team is afforded the opportunity to get the ball back

Nope....

A kickoff is the scoring team kicking the ball away and relinquishing possession. There are several features of that where the ball can be obtained again by the kicking team. 
 

A 4th in 15 is an arbitrary extra offensive possession and play. In the context of a game it’s arbitrarily spotting the ball at a specific yard line for no reason besides that’s what the league said and starting a drive on 4th and long. 

[lancerman]

15 hours ago, BleedTheClock said:

If you’re a better team, why would you risk it? There is like a 10/15% chance of converting it at best. It would be royally stupid and coaches get fired over dumb decisions like that. No way would ANY team in the league use this with a lead. I’d be willing to bet that never happens as long as this rule exists...if it ever exists. 

What makes them a better team? Maybe they only have a good passing game.... but there special teams sucks, there RB sucks, the pass rush sucks the LB Corp sucks. But they have a comment QB and a WR like Julio or AB who can break coverage and in that specific scenario of a high risk pass they are adept at that. And before you say that’s unrealistic, it’s not uncommon for an inferior team to maybe have a good offensive skill player that can still ball. 
 

And in this case you are allowing a team to potentially remove a weakness like special teams from the equation so you can potentially go with your strongest hand 

[Vorsutus]

I hate it. Just let teams declare an onside kick and run them how they were before the rule changes for kickoffs. The onside kicks were never a problem. And while we are at it with the rules on movement before kickoff move them back so we can have returns again. The current system if your kicker has any kind of leg it is a touchback every time. I am fine with the punt rules the punters and coverage teams have just gotten better over time.

[Broncofan]

Honestly, the simple fix to the 4th-and-15 giving too much of an opportunity for the O - only allow a conversion to get those 15 yards, no matter what type of play converts.  

You throw a 30 yard completion - you get ball at your 40.  

You get a 50 yard DPI - you get your ball at your 40.

You score a Hail Mary TD - doesn't count, you get your ball at your 40.

The problem with the proposal is that the odds of converting are about the same as in the past - but the range of outcomes is way too tilted towards the O (and the odds of a chunk play are infinitely higher this way than with an onside kick).    In the past, if you recovered your onsides kick, you were getting ball at your 40 or so.  There was never a possibility for a huge chunk play.  THAT is the problem.   Fix that, and the problem with this concept goes away IMO.   Otherwise, it fits what the league is looking for.   Miss, and you guarantee the other team is already in scoring position at your 25 (I'm assuming the 25 is where the O gets to try it from, not the 35).

Edited May 24, 2020 by Broncofan

[naptownskinsfan]

49 minutes ago, lancerman said:

I think it’s stupid and it’s a byproduct of one of the reasons I am having issues with the league. 
 

The onside kick is just a function of the kickoff rules. It’s a feature of something that has already existed for years. It’s like how part of passing the ball also allows for interceptions. 
 

A 4th and 15 is just a completely manufactured system that has nothing to do with how the game is played to add a special last chance element. Almost no major sport has a feature where the coach arbitrarily gets to decide “no we will stay on offense and attempt a high risk play to have a chance to win”z 

Agreed.  I also feel this way about the potential extra-innings change in baseball by adding a runner on second base to start innings. 

Both NFL and MLB have a rich history.  Changing rules like this aren't the way to make the product better.  

[BleedTheClock]

Am I the only person that feels like nobody is going to try this outside of pure desperation? I feel like it will literally never happen if a team is ahead or outside of the 4th quarter. 
 

If you’re the favorited team, you trust that you’ll beat the opponent without having to risk something like that. No point in giving a bad team life by trying something with such a small chance of success. 
 

If you’re the underdog team, you’ll be happy you scored. If a team that wasn’t very good to begin with tried this and failed, it’s the kind of thing that gets coaches fired.

 

Also, are people really understanding how hard it is to convert a 4th & 15?

[DannyB]

1 hour ago, lancerman said:

Nope....

A kickoff is the scoring team kicking the ball away and relinquishing possession. There are several features of that where the ball can be obtained again by the kicking team. 
 

A 4th in 15 is an arbitrary extra offensive possession and play. In the context of a game it’s arbitrarily spotting the ball at a specific yard line for no reason besides that’s what the league said and starting a drive on 4th and long. 

As to the first part, I'd say that possession is only gained by the receiving team when they physically recover the ball cleanly. Theoretically, UNLIKE a punt, the ball is open for any team to gain control of (after 10 yards). If the kicker boots it to the 5 yards line, but no receiving player touches it, the kicking team can get the ball and possession.

The second part, that's why I hate calling it 4th and long. It's just an untimed single down, and at least the way I'd do it, it's not the beginning of your drive. Advancement of the ball would have no bearing on where you start the drive, only whether or not you retain possession. You can't score a TD, you can't pick up 50 yards, you either get the ball passed the necessary plane or you don't.

Again, there are kinks to figure out, but it seems like it could work.

[DannyB]

11 minutes ago, BleedTheClock said:

Am I the only person that feels like nobody is going to try this outside of pure desperation? I feel like it will literally never happen if a team is ahead or outside of the 4th quarter. 
 

If you’re the favorited team, you trust that you’ll beat the opponent without having to risk something like that. No point in giving a bad team life by trying something with such a small chance of success. 
 

If you’re the underdog team, you’ll be happy you scored. If a team that wasn’t very good to begin with tried this and failed, it’s the kind of thing that gets coaches fired.

 

Also, are people really understanding how hard it is to convert a 4th & 15?

I'm guessing, for the most part, you're right.

However, I looked into the Chiefs conversion rate on 3rd and 4th and long with Patrick Mahomes. It's, uhhh...pretty devastating. Might have to make it further than 15.

[lancerman]

17 minutes ago, DannyB said:

As to the first part, I'd say that possession is only gained by the receiving team when they physically recover the ball cleanly. Theoretically, UNLIKE a punt, the ball is open for any team to gain control of (after 10 yards). If the kicker boots it to the 5 yards line, but no receiving player touches it, the kicking team can get the ball and possession.

The second part, that's why I hate calling it 4th and long. It's just an untimed single down, and at least the way I'd do it, it's not the beginning of your drive. Advancement of the ball would have no bearing on where you start the drive, only whether or not you retain possession. You can't score a TD, you can't pick up 50 yards, you either get the ball passed the necessary plane or you don't.

Again, there are kinks to figure out, but it seems like it could work.

Football is a simple game. You have 4 downs to advance the ball. You either turn over on downs or punt for field position. If you score, then you kick the ball off to the other team. There are ways that possession can change inside that framework. A fumble, an interception, a muffed punt or kick, an onside kick. It’s part of the game. The onside kick is part of the kickoff rules and is a calculated risk to regain possession in a situation where you are starting the play by relinquishing possession. 
 

A 4th and 15 is an arbitrary play on an arbitrary spot on the field that a coach can arbitrarily disrupt the flow of the game to never lose possession of the ball after scoring. 
 

[Vorsutus]

14 minutes ago, lancerman said:

Football is a simple game. You have 4 downs to advance the ball. You either turn over on downs or punt for field position. If you score, then you kick the ball off to the other team. There are ways that possession can change inside that framework. A fumble, an interception, a muffed punt or kick, an onside kick. It’s part of the game. The onside kick is part of the kickoff rules and is a calculated risk to regain possession in a situation where you are starting the play by relinquishing possession. 
 

A 4th and 15 is an arbitrary play on an arbitrary spot on the field that a coach can arbitrarily disrupt the flow of the game to never lose possession of the ball after scoring. 
 

Football is simple? Rest of this is not worth reading.

[lancerman]

45 minutes ago, Vorsutus said:

Football is simple? Rest of this is not worth reading.

It’s pretty simple. 

[11sanchez11]

i like that onside has a super low % of recoveries by the kicking team

you shouldn't be able to steal a possession on any consistent basis just because you are losing 

[DannyB]

2 hours ago, lancerman said:

Football is a simple game.

Disagree, but moving on...

 

2 hours ago, lancerman said:

If you score, then you kick the ball off to the other team.

I play where both teams have equal claim to the ball, the only caveat being one team is in better position to gain possession

 

2 hours ago, lancerman said:

A 4th and 15 is an arbitrary play on an arbitrary spot on the field that a coach can arbitrarily disrupt the flow of the game to never lose possession of the ball after scoring.

I get what you're saying, but just to be clear: it would be an arbitrary spot the same way where you kick off from is arbitrary, or where a touchback comes out to is arbitrary: Yes, the rules dictate that the ball will be spotted at a certain yard line, correct.

So, is your disagreement with this idea due to you thinking it's too easy for the scoring team to maintain/regain possession? Or you don't like it because the design of the play puts the two teams on such unequal footing (unequal, which is simply to say, different, not necessarily one more advantageous than the other)? Like, the play itself once again centers around offense and defense, rather than "special teams"?

[BleedTheClock]

2 hours ago, lancerman said:A 4th and 15 is an arbitrary play on an arbitrary spot on the field that a coach can arbitrarily disrupt the flow of the game to never lose possession of the ball after scoring. 
 

An onside kick is literally exactly the same thing that you’re complaining about. Teams will just try to convert a 4th & 15 in place of it. It’s likely to be used the exact same amount and convert at close to the same amount too.