Jump to content

Onside kick versus 4th and 15


AngusMcFife

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, BleedTheClock said:

An onside kick is literally exactly the same thing that you’re complaining about. Teams will just try to convert a 4th & 15 in place of it. It’s likely to be used the exact same amount and convert at close to the same amount too.

The onside kick is a function of a kickoff which is a part of the game and has been forever. The 4th and 15 is an extra offensive possession 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

24 minutes ago, lancerman said:

The onside kick is a function of a kickoff which is a part of the game and has been forever. The 4th and 15 is an extra offensive possession 

With an almost impossible conversion rate that gift wraps points to the opposition barring a miracle. 
 

It’s literally the onside kick. You’re nuts if you think teams are going to break this out in the middle of games. All analytics will favor kicking off unless you’re significantly behind in the game. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

55 minutes ago, 11sanchez11 said:

I think non-surprise onside kicks are at ~6%.

I think it was 6% last year prior to Younghoe Koo's two in one game. But it's been about 10% since they changed the kickoff rules in 2018. It was 16% prior to that, so that's the number they're trying to get it back to. The actual motivation behind the change is that kickoff rule changes about a running start and overloading a single side have lowered the success rate to borderline irrelevance. They want it back to that 16% area.

The one thing that could be iffy percentage wise, though, is not all 3rd and 15 attempts are real attempts. I don't know how often teams pull crap like draws or screens on 3rd and 15, but I guarantee you wouldn't see it as this new onside attempt. So they may need to make it further out if success rate winds up too high.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, lancerman said:

The onside kick is a function of a kickoff which is a part of the game and has been forever. The 4th and 15 is an extra offensive possession 

The latter part is factually untrue. It's a single play that has a ZERO percent chance of the team with the ball scoring (I'm not sure if a fumble or interception would be returnable for a TD).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, Jakuvious said:

I think it was 6% last year prior to Younghoe Koo's two in one game. But it's been about 10% since they changed the kickoff rules in 2018. It was 16% prior to that, so that's the number they're trying to get it back to. The actual motivation behind the change is that kickoff rule changes about a running start and overloading a single side have lowered the success rate to borderline irrelevance. They want it back to that 16% area.

 

non-surprise onside kicks? I didn't really look up the stat just whatever google said. But the surprise onside kicks were way higher % than non-surprise. Total was 16% from '13-'17. And 10% since the rule change. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, Jakuvious said:

The one thing that could be iffy percentage wise, though, is not all 3rd and 15 attempts are real attempts. I don't know how often teams pull crap like draws or screens on 3rd and 15, but I guarantee you wouldn't see it as this new onside attempt. So they may need to make it further out if success rate winds up too high.

Yeah, that's something that could throw the data off in either direction, but if the sample size is big enough it could be pretty negligible.

But, in this data there could be situations like this: a 3rd and 15 where the offensive teams knows they're going to go for it on 4th down, and thus may scheme up a play to pick up a quick ten yards and get out of bounds. Therefore the play did what it was designed to do, but didn't pick up the 4th. Or, 3rd and 15 from the opponent's 20 yard line while up by two TDs. Instead of risking anything, they just hand it off, happy to stay in position to kick a FG and going up by 3 scores. I mean you could create dozens of scenarios. But yes, if they really wanted to be accurate, those tracking data would go back and actually make a determination (with some degree of judgment call thrown in) as to whether the team on offense was actively trying to pick up the first down. On the flip side, you could also argue that maybe in some situations defenses were happy to let yardage be picked up underneath as long as it didn't get behind them, or go easily out of bounds.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I am a traditionalist and don't like to tinker too much, but the onside kick replaced by 4th and 15 I think will be pretty much ago about nothing in the grand scheme of things. If they want to do it, go ahead. It won't destroy the integrity of the NFL. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, BleedTheClock said:

With an almost impossible conversion rate that gift wraps points to the opposition barring a miracle. 
 

It’s literally the onside kick. You’re nuts if you think teams are going to break this out in the middle of games. All analytics will favor kicking off unless you’re significantly behind in the game. 

1. I never said teams would bust it out in the middle of games 

 

2. my argument has nothing to do with that. 
 

3. my point is the current onside kick is part of the regular kickoff rules, it is a feature of the game. It is no different than being able to intercept a pass to gain possession. The 4th and 15 is a completely arbitrary made up possession to add intrigue to the game when you already have a feature on special teams that is organically fundamental to the game and has been for about 97 years. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

34 minutes ago, DannyB said:

The latter part is factually untrue. It's a single play that has a ZERO percent chance of the team with the ball scoring (I'm not sure if a fumble or interception would be returnable for a TD).

No it factually true. The onside kick is part of the kick off. It is a kick off where you try to kick it short enough to recover possession at the risk of losing valuable field position. It is part of the same kickoff that happens after every scoring possession. Again this isn’t rocket science. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

i like the idea, my only concerns are regarding penalties. as many people have probably stated, a DPI gifting the opposing team a free possession is unbalanced. 

 

maybe penalties should be treated like they are in 2 point conversions? that way the first down marker is essentially treated like the end zone with all defensive penalties being half the distance to go, and offensive penalties mean a re-do but doesn't give the offense an opportunity to opt out of the conversion. would DPI still be a spot foul in this case? dunno...

if  a team converts then they get the ball at the 15 yards, they can't score a TD. if a defense gets a pick 6 then they get 2 points like they would in a PAT or 2-point conversion attempt.

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, lancerman said:

No it factually true. The onside kick is part of the kick off. It is a kick off where you try to kick it short enough to recover possession at the risk of losing valuable field position. It is part of the same kickoff that happens after every scoring possession. Again this isn’t rocket science. 

The latter part. The LATTER part is factually untrue. Here, I'll try to eliminate any potential confusion...

 

1 hour ago, lancerman said:

The 4th and 15 is an extra offensive possession 

Okay, now here's my response, with the initial statement removed, so as to avoid ANY confusion...

44 minutes ago, DannyB said:

[That] is factually untrue. It's a single play that has a ZERO percent chance of the team with the ball scoring (I'm not sure if a fumble or interception would be returnable for a TD).

'Kay? So let's try this again.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

29 minutes ago, DannyB said:

The latter part. The LATTER part is factually untrue. Here, I'll try to eliminate any potential confusion...

 

Okay, now here's my response, with the initial statement removed, so as to avoid ANY confusion...

'Kay? So let's try this again.

The offense gets the ball back if they pass the line to gain it is a new set of downs from that spot the play ended. It’s an offensive possession. You can dress it up because it starts on 4th down. But it literally gives the offense possession of the ball again in a situation where a first down continues a drive 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, lancerman said:

The offense gets the ball back if they pass the line to gain it is a new set of downs from that spot the play ended. It’s an offensive possession. You can dress it up because it starts on 4th down. But it literally gives the offense possession of the ball again in a situation where a first down continues a drive 

Well, the best description I've read of the proposed rule change leaves a lot open to interpretation, or a lot of questions unanswered. Some of which I've brought up previously in this thread.

-In Philly's proposed version, are they saying that it can be a scoring play for the offense? Could they conceivably throw a hail mary and score on the play?

-If converted, does the offense keep any and all yardage picked up and continue the drive from there?

Personally, I think I'm against this way of doing it, which is why I'm saying it is NOT the same thing as giving possession to the offense. The way I'm describing it, and I think would work best, be the most fair, etc., is that it would be a singular play independent from the ensuing drive if the possessing team converts. If it's from the 25 yard line, that means that the team needs to convert a play that gets the ball to at least their own 40 yard line. They can complete a 70 yard hail mary, do a screen pass, have the QB scramble and barely push the ball past the plane of the 40 before tiptoeing out of bounds, whatever, I don't care. As long as they get to-or-beyond that line, they are awarded possession, but NO extra progress. Then the question would be (and I'm not married to either of these options, so I'm open to ideas), do they begin their drive at their 25? Or at their 40, which was the point they had to get the ball to on that singularly play?

This single play would not, again, WOULD NOT be a potential scoring play for the offense. They couldn't score directly from that play. They would have the convert the play in order to have the opportunity to score.

Also, I DO know this about the Philly proposal: You could only attempt their idea a maximum of twice.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...