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GDT Week 4: Sunday Afternoon – Oakland Raiders @ Denver Broncos


Who's going to win Sunday?  

14 members have voted

  1. 1. Who's going to win Sunday?

    • Denver Broncos
      9
    • Oakland Raiders
      4
    • Colorado Rockies
      2
    • Milwaukee Brewers
      0


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Oakland Raiders (2-1)  Denver Broncos (2-1)
Image result for oakland raiders @ Image result for denver broncos
Sunday Afternoon Football, October 1, 2017 – 2:25PM MST - Denver, CO
Line: 2.5 points

 

Injuries: Update

Key Matchups:
Amari, Crabtree and Cook vs #NoFlyZone: What a matchup this will be. Both sides will want to prove who the best is especially after both groups had bad games last week (Oakland got shutdown by Washington DB’s and No Fly Zone gave up some splash plays). Last year we had a hard time against them for our first contest but Talib was out that game and Roby had his worst game as a pro. I think Talib and CHJ lock it down this game, which leaves Roby and our Safeties playing well to stop Cook, Roberts/Patterson and Richard out of the backfield. Also, look for Amari to drop a few passes as he is DT lite.

Siemian vs Oakland’s Secondary: Will we get the Siemian, who shredded weak pass defenses (LAC and DAL) or the Siemian, who could not get it going against the upper pass defenses (BUF). I actually do not put the blame on Siemian for the Buffalo game, I thought he was moving the chains but faltered down there in the RZ and he forced two bad throws late but he was trying to make something happen. The whole team gets an “L” for that game. I think for him to have success this game, we need to keep him clean on crucial downs and he needs to protect the ball. If he can keep the chains moving and score when we are in the RZ we got this game. The Raiders defensively do not scare me aside from Mack, so here is to hoping McCoy game plans away from him.

Oakland’s OL vs Denver’s Front 7: I believe this matchup to be critical for both teams. Aside from Sunday Night's performance, Oakland had only given up 2 sacks in 2 games (currently 6 total). They also have run the ball fairly well averaging 4.7 years per carry. With that said, our defense has been outstanding at stopping the run (opponent's average 2.6 yards per carry) and as we all know, we have two legit pass rushers in Shaq and Von (4 total sacks). I expect Oakland to try to pound the ball up the middle with Beast Mode and execute a lot of short passes to negate our pass rush. The key is the same for every opponent we play, stop the run and have them in 3rd and long so we can pin our ears back.

Other Matchups: Denver’s OL vs Oakland’s Front 7 and Denver's ST vs Oakland's ST.

My Prediction:

The homer in me says we win 28-24. The first half is going to be ugly as both teams hold each other in check but both teams coming out firing in all cylinders in the 2nd half. Late turnover by Carr sets up a nice game winning drive for Siemian and Co.
 

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I think you hit the nail on the head with the key match.ups, @iLikeDefense. Well done. 

The good news for us is that, even with a new Head Coach, our coordinators both know Oakland well and our QBs coach was on their staff last year. I think that gives us a slight edge, somewhat akin to what Dennison had on our defense last week in Buffalo. I'm optimistic right now that last week's games were aberrations for both teams and each will look and play like they did in weeks one and two. Being at home gives us another edge. This is going to be a close, hard-fought game but I think we can (and frankly need) to pull it out. Going into the bye having lost two-straight and sitting at .500 would make for a bad two weeks while we wait to play the Giants on Sunday night. 

Denver: 24

Oakland: 20

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15 minutes ago, AnAngryAmerican said:

I think you hit the nail on the head with the key match.ups, @iLikeDefense. Well done. 

The good news for us is that, even with a new Head Coach, our coordinators both know Oakland well and our QBs coach was on their staff last year. I think that gives us a slight edge, somewhat akin to what Dennison had on our defense last week in Buffalo. I'm optimistic right now that last week's games were aberrations for both teams and each will look and play like they did in weeks one and two. Being at home gives us another edge. This is going to be a close, hard-fought game but I think we can (and frankly need) to pull it out. Going into the bye having lost two-straight and sitting at .500 would make for a bad two weeks while we wait to play the Giants on Sunday night. 

Denver: 24

Oakland: 20

Thanks, @AnAngryAmerican!

I totally did not consider the advantage of having Musgrave, slipped my mind. 

I absolutely loathe Pagano but the dude knows how to play us really well when he was with the Chargers, now he's the Assistant HC and I am sure him and Norton will compare notes when making their game plan.

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3 hours ago, iLikeDefense said:

Thanks, @AnAngryAmerican!

I totally did not consider the advantage of having Musgrave, slipped my mind. 

I absolutely loathe Pagano but the dude knows how to play us really well when he was with the Chargers, now he's the Assistant HC and I am sure him and Norton will compare notes when making their game plan.

 

Pagano literally coached two good games out of ten when he was with the Chargers. The 2013 and 2016 Thursday night football games. Every other time we played, our offense ate him for breakfast.

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48 minutes ago, paul-mac said:

 

Pagano literally coached two good games out of ten when he was with the Chargers. The 2013 and 2016 Thursday night football games. Every other time we played, our offense ate him for breakfast.

False.

Looking back at all the games.

In 2013 and 2014, we pretty much scored at will against them and that happened to be an amazing offensive years for us. Not many defenses limited us. And they did have that one game where they did limit us on TNF.

In 2015 season, the chargers held us to 17 points and prior to the miraculous return of PFM during our last game of the year, we were getting out butts kicked by the chargers.

In 2016 season, he really coached well in both games and the one you left out was impressive considering we forced 3 Rivers INT's (one went for a TD) and they held us to 17 points until late when the Chargers were desperate and we scored 10 pts.

 

 

 

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Rule of thumb - when it's a division game and the personnel hasn't changed much, expect a lower-scoring game than advertised.  

@iLikeDefense already hit the high notes on the top matchups, here are the hidden matchups that I suspect both teams will look to exploit:

1.  Seth Roberts vs. our nickel guy - not just Jared Cook vs. Simmons (which I expect they'll test), but Seth Roberts has hit us for big plays, while Talib & Harris have keyed on Cooper / Crabtree.   

2.  Which RT holds up with help - I know it's Watson vs. his ex-teammates, but there's no way we leave him alone against Mack.  Right now, much like Von brings most of the pressure with no Ray, Mack is a one-man show in OAK.  Contain him, and you go a long way in containing their pass rush.  It's why WAS gained a huge advantage in the pass game last week.   On the flip side, OAK's RT has been a hot mess as well with Marshall Newhouse (anyone who saw the SNF game will concur), so this is an area for Von & co. to exploit.  Getting extra TE help from OAK would help negate one of their weapons, so it's a win-win if we can generate pressure.  

3.  Home Field Advantage - pretty clear from last week that we benefitted from the home field, being a half-beat quicker off the ball in Weeks 1-2.   Not a knock against us, it's there pretty much everywhere (maybe not LAC right now, lol).   Hopefully we get key false-start penalties, or we generate more QB pressure with that extra jump off the ball.

4. Special Teams - given the advantage we hold with crowd noise, winning the field position game is huge in a tight battle.   Hopefully we pin them deep, and let the noise work in our favour.

5.  Pass-catching RB's - not just JC, because he can only hold up for so many total plays, but I suspect Booker gets activated - the Raiders LB's are very suspect vs. the RB pass game, Chris Thompson exposed this in spades last week, but we saw that last year in Week 17 too.   CJ is still our lead guy,  but JC & Booker could get more looks in the flats, as we try and really stretch their D.  Which brings me to....

6. Time of Possession - any game at Mile High is a game where owning the clock wears out the D eventually.  We got steamrolled in OAK by their OL, we control the clock and the field position, we're in great shape to expose their weaknesses.  WAS did an awesome job in this regard.

I'm going with the 24-17 score, lower than expected, and hoping we get to celebrate a hard-fought intra-divisional game.

One Q - anyone know if Tony Romo is doing the color for this game?  He's been AMAZING to listen to - he's called at least 7-8 plays a game exactly spot on (not just run/pass, but exact playcall), and then broken it down.  He called the gamescript switch for CIN/GB last week - once CIN stopped their scripted plays, they couldn't score after GB adjusted.   I'd love to hear him call this game and get his take on both O's and Siemian.

 

Edited by Broncofan
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12 hours ago, germ-x said:

Honestly, unless the defense play lights out, which is definitely possible with the talent on that side of the ball, I think Denver gets throttled.

I don't think we're going to get throttled at home. I would be shocked if that were the case. It's hilarious how after 2 good games and one down game, suddenly we're an awful team. Broncos fans are so reactionary.

I think it's a close one, and I would expect us to win at home coming off a poor performance against Buffalo. Oakland is not quite as good as advertised, particularly their defense, which has been dreadful to date.

I'll say Denver 24-21

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It would take Denver playing one of their worst games in the Elway era to get blown out by a team at home who they match up pretty well against. I'd somewhat consider the possibility of KC coming in here and rolling, but the Raiders? I don't see the ingredients for a road blowout in Denver from them at all. It would take Siemian turning into Ryan Fitzpatrick.

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13 hours ago, Broncofan said:

FWIW, it will be Nantz/Romo....looking forward to their PBP and analysis...

Oh, so now Tony Romo visiting the Broncos. Romo and Jim Nantz calling the DEN-OAK game Sunday. #9sports

506 Sports is a good website to answer this question each week. They post NFL broadcast information, which games are shown in in which market(s) by which networks and with witch announcers. NFL is posted on Wednesday each week, college football each Thursday. 

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3 hours ago, BroncoBruin said:

It would take Denver playing one of their worst games in the Elway era to get blown out by a team at home who they match up pretty well against. I'd somewhat consider the possibility of KC coming in here and rolling, but the Raiders? I don't see the ingredients for a road blowout in Denver from them at all. It would take Siemian turning into Ryan Fitzpatrick.

Well we did basically blow you guys out in Oakland last year. And most likely would've swept last year had Carr not gotten hurt. But i agree, I don't see a blowout for either team. This will be a good throwback AFC west game.

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29 minutes ago, SilverNBlackFan said:

Well we did basically blow you guys out in Oakland last year. And most likely would've swept last year had Carr not gotten hurt. But i agree, I don't see a blowout for either team. This will be a good throwback AFC west game.

We had a 3-4 front with a 270 pounder and 280 pounder lining up against the biggest offensive line in the NFL and didn't have Talib. That's why it was a blowout. That game wasn't in Denver either, which should always be treated as essentially a touchdown swing. Home field matters. 

And there's a good chance Denver still wins in Week 17 with a healthy Carr, I'd argue it's far more likely than not. That game was a blowout, even really good QBs don't move a line 19 points.

Edited by BroncoBruin
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11 minutes ago, SilverNBlackFan said:

Well we did basically blow you guys out in Oakland last year. And most likely would've swept last year had Carr not gotten hurt. But i agree, I don't see a blowout for either team. This will be a good throwback AFC west game.

Home-field advantage is such a huge equalizer though.  No doubt you guys were the better team by far last year - but we still won at home, and frankly, after watching last week's game, hard to believe Carr would make that much difference, when the OL breaks down as much as they did week 17 and last week.   One only need look at last week to see the impact of home vs. road, and pressure (that OL usually leaves it clean for Carr to get rid of the ball to his guys).

It's a testament to your team's talent that it's a close match this week - if your team didn't a clearly talented team on O with an elite run game, top 5 OL, Carr, Coop/Crabtree and Mack, playing at Mile High you'd be significant dogs.   The noise really helps make OL's that half-step slower, though, @ DEN.  Certainly saw that with DAL week 2.  Either way, should be a good game.  Looking forward to seeing Romo break it down.

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