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Who Is Worth 40M a Year Today?


JaguarCrazy2832

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If all players were currently FAs and you started from scratch with todays projected cap(roughly 200M) who would be worth a contract of 4 years, 160M(130M guaranteed) assuming guarantees are:

Year 1 & 2: Fully guaranteed

Year 3: 30M

Year 4: 20M 

With the cap increasing year over year it helps but 40M a year is still a huge chunk of money for 1 player(presumably a QB)

Thoughts?

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Value is based on what someone is willing pay you.
A lot of teams base contract offers on similar contracts have been used in the past. Sometimes teams have signed players to contracts that don’t fit the normal structure and are considered outliers. Players/agents try to push those deals while most teams will ignore them. 

I wouldn’t be surprised to see teams get extensions done on players like Prescott and Watson,  before Mahomes and Jackson get theirs done, to beat the explosion that is bound to happen. Especially since the Texans and Cowboys already have a few large contract obligations. 
 

 We can look at how the DL market slowed down. At one point in time DEs and DTs were starting to get $16M/yr while QBs were at $22-25M. Now 8 QBs are over $30/APY and the highest paid DL are just over $20 M/APY (K. Mack, A. Donald, D. Lawrence, F. Clark and D. Buckner). J. Jones and A. Cooper are the only WRs over $20 M/APY and Tunsil is the only OT over $20M/APY. (Cowboys: Lawrence and Cooper and Texans: Tunsil)  

I think Mahomes and Jackson will get $40M whether they deserve it or not is certainly up for debate. 
In a free for all type situation I could see maybe 5 QBs get that type of money (don’t ask me to name them because situational fit is important when determining that) 

I doubt any other positions get close to that 

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As expected, a lot of people out here trying to win the "most cap space" championship. Give me a good or at least serviceable QB and I'm good with avoiding high paid veteran  players elsewhere and having ONLY having 80% of the cap left to work with.

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NFL should just adopt a Max Contract for QBs and once they hit that Max Contract, that's it
The QBs have significant earning power outside of the salary cap, more than any other player/position- so its not like they'd be an aggrieved party here.   Agree on some percentage of the cap = max compensation.

It takes the competitive nature out of these contract negotiations: 
"I'm better than that guy ! "
It also helps other teams: When one dumb team re-sets the QB market, the other teams all have to play along and be compared to that deal
With a Max Contract, that issue goes away

A Max Contract helps the team build around that QB, while allowing the QB and the agent to puff out their chest and say they got Max.
It could potentially eliminate hold outs and it would allow teams to use the tags on non-QB players

Edited by Shanedorf
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Seeing as though this is a four year deal: I think it will be valuable to have QBs that will still likely be either in their primes or still heavily thriving over that span of time so I would say QBs worth the IDEA of $40m: Patrick Mahomes, Russell Wilson, Lamar Jackson, Deshaun Watson, and Kyler Murray as tier one options.

Tier Two options would include guys who I’d feel a little more nervous about spending such cash on for one reason or another, but in a competitive league it would be better to “fail” at over paying than settling for a far more average talent at the position: Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan, Dak Prescott, Carson Wentz, Matthew Stafford, Jimmy G, Kirk Cousins, Drew Lock, Baker Mayfield, and Sam Darnold.

After that I think it’s reasonable that most of the QBs will each either age out or I don’t have nearly as good a feel about the QB. It may be shocking that I have Lock, Darnold, and Baker on here but I think their potential are all high enough that they could increase their value... and I’d rather take one of those guys rather than settle for less.

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