Right and Wrong: Offense

[Dcash4]

Wanted to start a little two part series to kill some of this offseason from hell boredom. Going to ask: What goes right for team success and what could go wrong to keep us from moving forward. Also, for fun throwing in a little bonus for some hot take calls - what YOU will be right about at the end of the season and what YOU will be wrong about. I’ll start. 

What goes Right: Variety 

While I still think we lack a bit of diversity, this offense is unique. We have a lot of guys who can line up in multiple areas and perform a variety of jobs. Our additions of Watt, Ebron, and then Claypool give us a lot of options in traditional sets. While I’m fully willing to commit to Chase as a WR, I think his ultimate calling card will be the pseudo TE, like Ebron as a big slot. I love the idea of facing a base defense with Ebron, Claypool, Watt, McDonald and JuJu/Washington (exceptional blocking receivers). We can be spread, we can be 2-3 tight, we can run, we can pass — we can go no huddle and absolutely kill a team. Trying to keep it short and simple, but we can offer a variety of formations and playing styles with our personnel and keep teams off balance to make up for the lack of diversity.

What goes wrong: Separation

Surprise! I didn’t say Fitchner! Which, we’ll, is the correct answer, but I’m trying to forget he is out OC so I’m taking a different route...

While we can be varied, if our receivers can’t separate, it’s not going to matter.  I think there is a lot of hope right now that Claypool can stretch the field and DJ takes the next step in becoming AB 2.0, but Claypool doesn’t play like his 4.4 and DJ is still growing. If teams can play us like they did the year Bryant was suspended and Coates got hurt and just sit in Man 2 (effectively doubling the field) on key downs...we are going to be in trouble without a go to man beater on the field in the short area or ability to take the top off. We have a lot of combat catch players who don’t separate well, and while that’s a valuable trait, it’s not a long term success plan in the NFL to have your entire core made up of that. Separation is king, and we don’t know that we have a lot of it. 

Where I am right: James Connor

Just book mark this when he plays 12+ games and is a top 5 RB in all purpose. I get the concerns, but I really feel like people forgot just how damn good he was in 2018 and also missed his moments in 2019 when he was just as good in a terrible situation. I think he is easily a top 8 RB and the missed tackle numbers support that. Go watch the Bills game last year where he made guys in a 10 man box look foolish. 

He has a history of being injured but he doesn’t have an injury history. Makes me believe it’s more coincidental than his body being a problem. 

Big things coming from a guy who has really been tremendous but has spent the offseason hearing about how we needed a running back  

Where I’m wrong: Offensive Line 

I spent a good chunk of last season defending them instead of acknowledging that it could have been regression (outside of Foster who couldn’t even get in his stance at the end of the year). The QB play cause a lot of undue criticism at the OL (Hi, Miami game) my stance is that with Ben back and the returns of a passing attack, audibles, and hots....this will be a top third unit again. 

Having said that...our key guys are all on the wrong side of 30. Did Munchak just maximize the talent available or did someone like Villy just fall off a bit? I still don’t see the OL being issues when I watch the games back, but it wouldn’t be overly surprising if the unit begins to slide again. 

My plan is to let this run it’s course a little (if people enjoy the convo) before starting the Defensive side, but I have been fairly hit and miss with availability so if we get a few days in and someone wants to start the defense, feel free. 

Edited May 27, 2020 by Dcash4

[turtle28]

Great topic @Dcash4, I love these sorts of topics in the offseaon.

As far as Claypool goes, I’m torn on this one. I can see him being used outside as a bigger version of Martavis Bryant. I’ve said it before when people keep saying a Claypool doesn’t separate well, the Notre Dame QBs sucked and honestly they’ve sucked since Brady Quinn and as we found out, even he wasn’t that good. I mean, we keep seeing Notre Dame position players hit the NFL and play a lot better than they did at ND, and a lot of that is bc of the school’s crappy QB play going back a decade plus. 
 

So, when you’re watching highlights or film of Claypool and seeing all he’s trying to do is make contested catches you’re assuming that’s bc he can’t separate rather than looking at the other - and most likely probability - that the ND QB sucks and is underthrowing him or throwing an off target pass that Claypool is adjusting to and trying to catch.

Anyways, needless to say I’m torn on Claypool and where he will end up playing. I can totally see him as a TE/big slot type but given his speed, I can see him as a Martavis Bryant type. I can also see him as a Vernon Davis type TE where he is playing TE but running a lot of vertical routes. It’s really any of those 3 things. IMO I’d like to have him focus on being a Martavis Bryant type WR first - since that’s what he was at ND and if that doesn’t work out this year then, in the future make him a big slot or a true TE.

I’d also point out that James Washington can stretch the field. Last year Washington didn’t really get the chance to develop like we had hoped he would. Was that bc of him and his lack of development or bc Big Ben got hurt and Rudolph/Duck weren’t good enough to push the ball downfield? I tend to lean towards the latter. 
 

Then, of course Juju missed a lot of time last year and we all know he can separate both on the outside and in the slot. So, I don’t think it’s as big of an issue as you are suggesting.

James Conner

I agree with you on James Conner. I can’t accept that a player is just always going to get injured all the time - as some suggest - after the player has just one year where they battled a few injuries. I think the Conner the Steelers had in 2018 is the one that they’ll get for most of his career. 
 

And if not, I fully have faith in Snell to grind out the tough first down and short yardage yards while McFarland provides a change of pace and some lightning to that thunder. 
 

I’m not sure what to expect of Jaylen Samuels right now. Again, like Conner I think that the Samuels that we saw in 2018 is more what he is rather than the one we saw last year. 
 

Just like with the passing game last year, the running game was affected by Rudolph & Duck’s inabilities to push the ball downfield consistently. If Ben is back, that will help the running game as well as the downfield/separation in the passing game.
 

Bottomline
 

Having Ben back fixes a lot of things on offense - maybe even everything. With Ben back the following should look better:

• Downfield passing

• Running game bc w/ the better threat to the downfield passing game, teams won’t stack the box.

• OL will look better bc Ben will get rid of the ball and make better decisions than Rudolph & Duck which in turn again will help the running game.

• TEs will look better as Ben has always been a quick and accurate passer to the TEs. I expect that Ebron & McDonald will have good - maybe even great - years with Ben back.

Edited May 27, 2020 by turtle28

[MOSteelers56]

I think separation is a little overblown. With a really accurate QB you don’t need it as much. Look at some of JuJu’s highlights with Ben. He was throwing into some really tight windows. Also, DJ has already proven he can separate. Look at his average distance of defender on his catches. He was wide open a lot. Plus, I agree with @turtle28 about Washington. We saw him get open deep for Ben last year before the injury. I really do think scheme is important for deep routes. WR’s have the advantage deep when single covered. It’s all about getting your deep guy singled up. 

[MOSteelers56]

This is a great post. Very well thought out.

[Dcash4]

5 hours ago, turtle28 said:

I’ve said it before when people keep saying a Claypool doesn’t separate well, the Notre Dame QBs sucked

The only problem I have with this is that you can tell if a guy separates well before the ball gets close to the target. There’s a good saying “if he’s even, he’s leavin’” for a receiver who is about to separate from a corner on a go....but Claypools saying would be more, “if I am even, I’m staying even but don’t worry I’ll win at the POA”. Even in his highlights, dudes are right in his pocket often, he doesn’t seperate from them. I question that that will change when pro corners are just faster and more athletic. 

3 hours ago, MOSteelers56 said:

I think separation is a little overblown. With a really accurate QB you don’t need it as much. Look at some of JuJu’s highlights with Ben. He was throwing into some really tight windows. Also, DJ has already proven he can separate. Look at his average distance of defender on his catches. He was wide open a lot. Plus, I agree with @turtle28 about Washington.

I probably didn’t get into enough detail because I didn’t want to make too big of a wall of text,  but I don’t think combat catch vs separation is a problem, but it can be if that’s all you have. Completions to guys that separate are far more repeatable at the pro level.  Giving defenders chances to make a play too often leads them to do just that — make the play. 

You can have success, but can you have success when it matters? That was the same issue we ran into when Bryant and Coates were both out. AB was the only person who could get himself open. Teams like the Ravens went as far as to triple team him and when no one else could get open, it’s off the field on a key 3rd because you played 50/50 balls in tight window s and wound up on the wrong side of the odds. 

Washington is an interesting case because the more I watch, the less I see any separation...which is weird considering his downfield success last year. Even his highlights, big play against the Bengals looked like the corner behind him thought he was getting a pick floated to him, the score against the Browns will never happen again that way, he had a bit play against the Pats that McCourty just stopped running, and two more against the Browns that had dudes all over him, but Duck had perfect ball placement against Washington and the sideline. I thought he was awesome last year, but it still comes down to can you repeat the good? I’m not sure thing group can continually win against good competition in tight situations. We can’t rely on things falling out way consistently. 

I think DJ is going to be the killer of the group. And I think JuJu and Washington are good receivers, but if we rely on perfect too much, 3rd and 8s I’m big games are going to be frustrating not being able to dictate coverages with only one true guy that separates. 

[Chieferific]

1 hour ago, Dcash4 said:

I think DJ is going to be the killer of the group. 

Yep.  I expect big things from him.  The AB comparison isn't a fair but one I get.  I don't think he has the hands of AB (yet) but he is every bit as explosive (and perhaps even more) as AB. His quickness out of breaks is elite.  I'm excited to see how much he flourishes with Ben feeding him the rock.   

Edited May 27, 2020 by Chieferific

[Chuck80]

The Steelers draft Wide receivers and linebackers well for the most part I expect Claypool to get his stride in season two 

[MOSteelers56]

@Dcash4 in my view Claypool is Vincent Jackson. You should watch some VJ highlights. He was a great deep threat for a long time. He didn’t get a ton of separation either. He just won darn near every time he was singled deep. Claypool doesn’t need separation because he’s so good at winning matchups. 

The issue our offense had when Bryant and Coates went out was that our next guy was Cobi Hamilton(tall guy, dreads, generally bad at being an NFL WR, I can’t remember if that’s his name, Cobi Something). We’ve now got one of the deepest pass catching groups I’ve ever seen for this team.

I do agree with both you and @Chieferific Diontae Johnson is going to be a stud.

[Chuck80]

2 hours ago, MOSteelers56 said:

@Dcash4 in my view Claypool is Vincent Jackson. You should watch some VJ highlights. He was a great deep threat for a long time. He didn’t get a ton of separation either. He just won darn near every time he was singled deep. Claypool doesn’t need separation because he’s so good at winning matchups. 

The issue our offense had when Bryant and Coates went out was that our next guy was Cobi Hamilton(tall guy, dreads, generally bad at being an NFL WR, I can’t remember if that’s his name, Cobi Something). We’ve now got one of the deepest pass catching groups I’ve ever seen for this team.

I do agree with both you and @Chieferific Diontae Johnson is going to be a stud.

I agree about Vincent Jackson I remember how well he played against the Steelers when the bucs played them in Pittsburgh their 2-14 season (one win against Pittsburgh) ...just got injured alot ...

Edited May 28, 2020 by Chuck80

[Dcash4]

2 hours ago, MOSteelers56 said:

@Dcash4 in my view Claypool is Vincent Jackson. You should watch some VJ highlights. He was a great deep threat for a long time. He didn’t get a ton of separation either. He just won darn near every time he was singled deep. Claypool doesn’t need separation because he’s so good at winning matchups. 

The issue our offense had when Bryant and Coates went out was that our next guy was Cobi Hamilton(tall guy, dreads, generally bad at being an NFL WR, I can’t remember if that’s his name, Cobi Something). We’ve now got one of the deepest pass catching groups I’ve ever seen for this team.

I do agree with both you and @Chieferific Diontae Johnson is going to be a stud.

Love the VJax comparison, and hope it’s right. Always liked watching him play. Ultimately I hope your correct, but I have concerns making an entire receiving core out of guys who need everything to go right and have to rely on contested catches. To me; it’s not a winning strategy to play with a guy in your pocket and be comfortable with a “you win some, you lose some”. That’s now how you pick up key 3rd and 5’s in a fourth quarter. 

I’m gonna say the name I didn’t want to talk about in this thread, but any body but Fitchner and I might be less worried. But he showed last year when he needed to create for his squad that he still relied on guys making plays (much like 2018, just with far, far less success for obvious reasons). 

[Chieferific]

No words...

https://twitter.com/Steelersdepot/status/1265779290005594112?s=20

[MOSteelers56]

1 hour ago, Chieferific said:

No words...

https://twitter.com/Steelersdepot/status/1265779290005594112?s=20

He looks like he can fly with those lats.

[turtle28]

 

[Dcash4]

Dude, that’s gotta be fake......right?? Looks like a bad guy from the Batman video games. 

[turtle28]

1 hour ago, Dcash4 said:

Dude, that’s gotta be fake......right?? Looks like a bad guy from the Batman video games. 

I’d say a lot of NFL RBs, LBs, DEs TEs & safeties Lats look that big and are that defined but we just don't see pictures of them. Just think if a guy is 220-270 pounds and has little body fat, their muscles probably look like that.