RuskieTitan Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 GG @pwny. Running game has disappeared the last 3 games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pwny Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 15 minutes ago, Tk3 said: Week 12 power rankings Norway Knights (9-3) - UP 2 Egypt Starfall (9-3) - DOWN 1 Phoenix Rattlers (8-4) - DOWN 1 Rocket City Trash Pandas (8-4) - UP 1 Rio de Janeiro Pirates (7-5) - DOWN 1 Chicago Fire (8-4) - unchanged Hanoi Viet Kong (7-5) - unchanged South Africa Woolley Mammoths (7-5) - unchanged Freiburg Venom (7-5) - unchanged Reykjavik Direwolves (6-6) - UP 2 Scranton Papermakers (6-6) - UP 3 Miami Sharks (6-5) - DOWN 1 Indianapolis Predators (5-7) - DOWN 3 Tacoma Thunder (5-7) - DOWN 1 Seattle Sonics (4-7-1) - unchanged Iowa Jagwads (4-8) - unchanged Southview Saints (4-8) - unchanged Anchorage Eskimos (4-8) - unchanged Little Rock Uni Royals (3-9) - unchanged Richmond Flying Squirrels (2-9-1) - unchanged A lot of bad teams beat a lot of good teams, but overall, not a ton of shakeup this week Playoff odds Norway Knights (9-3) (proj 12.1 wins) - >99% playoff chance Rio de Janeiro Pirates (7-5) (proj 10.2 wins) - 74% playoff chance Chicago Fire (8-4) (proj 10.1 wins) - 69% playoff chance Hanoi Viet Kong (7-5) (proj 9.7 wins) - 58% playoff chance South Africa Woolley Mammoths (7-5) (proj 9.4 wins) - 52% playoff chance Reykjavik Direwolves (6-6) (proj 8.4 wins) - 31% playoff chance Tacoma Thunder (5-7) (proj 6.7 wins) - 11% playoff chance Seattle Sonics (4-7-1) (proj 6.0 wins) - 5% playoff chance Anchorage Eskimos (4-8) (proj 4.5 wins) - <1% playoff chance Little Rock Uni Royals (3-9) (proj 4.1 wins) - <1% playoff chance This race continues to be super interesting with another week of wins for the Kong, Mammoths, and Direwolves. Pirates dropping another game takes them away from near-certainty and right in the mix again. Knights look safe, and Fire are trending upwards. but the 4 red teams are going to be very interesting to follow. Wk 13 Pirates/Mammoths and Kong/Direwolves will tell a lot, and in total these teams play each other 5 more times in the remaining weeks. There will be a lot of attrition knocking each other down and it will be exciting to see how that plays out. Egypt Starfall (9-3) (proj 11.7 wins) - >99% playoff chance Phoenix Rattlers (8-4) (proj 10.9 wins) - >99% playoff chance Rocket City Trash Pandas (8-4) (proj 10.3 wins) - 84% playoff chance Freiburg Venom (7-5) (proj 9.2 wins) - 51% playoff chance Scranton Papermakers (6-6) (proj 7.7 wins) - 23% playoff chance Miami Sharks (6-6) (proj 7.6 wins) - 21% playoff chance Indianapolis Predators (5-7) (proj 7.2 wins) - 17% playoff chance Iowa Jagwads (4-8) (proj 5.8 wins) - 2% playoff chance Southview Saints (4-8) (proj 5.7 wins) - 2% playoff chance Richmond Flying Squirrels (2-9-1) (proj 3.1 wins) - eliminated Another bad week for the conference. Top 3 teams all took losses, but maintain their status as frontrunners. Venom continue to be hot, but only a 1 game lead on the Papermakers and Sharks. A few of these middle teams are showing no desire to win games, while the bottom teams are closing that gap. Its a muddled mess that will end between 6 and 8 wins. Did you settle on a change for your formula? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SirA1 Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 2 hours ago, EaglesPeteC said: The Venom are my white whale. I just can't beat them. Their defense just shut me down. 2 4th quarter redzone turnovers ain't gonna get it done Gg. I was on vacation this weekend and forgot to reset my sliders. I may lead the league in FF I will have to check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pwny Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 21 minutes ago, RuskieTitan said: GG @pwny. Running game has disappeared the last 3 games. I assumed this was a guaranteed loss, especially after you lost last week. I know it doesn’t make sense to think the sim would do it, but I’m always terrified of bounce back games against great teams and bad teams on a big losing streak. But my defense stepped up big time. 6 sacks, a pick and 2 forced fumbles. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tk3 Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 1 hour ago, RuskieTitan said: GG @pwny. Running game has disappeared the last 3 games. Imagine being the best PWNY team (by a couple TDs) but only being 7-5 Squirrels had that kind of luck last year, not clinching until week 16 and ended up winning it all 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tk3 Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 1 hour ago, pwny said: Did you settle on a change for your formula? I used the 5.3 I agree that I like the results a bit better. By its nature, W/L is always going to be the driving factor as we get later into the season, but I like having the heavier PD influence to separate out some of the "luck" factor and close wins/losses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EaglesPeteC Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 1 hour ago, SirA1 said: Gg. I was on vacation this weekend and forgot to reset my sliders. I may lead the league in FF I will have to check. So basically “I beat your *** even though I forgot to try” 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tk3 Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 Z through 3 games.. Za'Darius Smith [3 GS]: 16 tackles (3 stuffs), 0 coverage, 5 sacks, 0 forced fumble. Looking like the NSFL DPOY early on Za'Darius Smith through 12 games Za'Darius Smith [12 GS]: 44 tackles (11 stuffs), 1 coverage, 6 sacks, 1 forced fumble. Still getting some decent stuffs, but just 1 sack in the last 9 games Week 11: Za'Darius Smith: 0 tackles. Week 12: Za'Darius Smith: 4 tackles. Think he just decided to quit playing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pwny Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 1 minute ago, Tk3 said: I used the 5.3 I agree that I like the results a bit better. By its nature, W/L is always going to be the driving factor as we get later into the season, but I like having the heavier PD influence to separate out some of the "luck" factor and close wins/losses Another thing I was thinking you could also do if you wanted win percentage to play a larger role, but then also still have projections make sense is to weigh the projected PWNY at like 2/3 or something and then do 1/3 win percentage already accumulated. That should give you more reasonable win totals than the standard Pythag formula, while not solely relying on PWN as a means of projection. You could even use it on a sliding scale based on the week we’re in, to give more or less emphasis on projection as time goes on. Just something to think about if the league continues and you want to adjust things for future years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RuskieTitan Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 1 hour ago, Tk3 said: Z through 3 games.. Za'Darius Smith [3 GS]: 16 tackles (3 stuffs), 0 coverage, 5 sacks, 0 forced fumble. Looking like the NSFL DPOY early on Za'Darius Smith through 12 games Za'Darius Smith [12 GS]: 44 tackles (11 stuffs), 1 coverage, 6 sacks, 1 forced fumble. Still getting some decent stuffs, but just 1 sack in the last 9 games Week 11: Za'Darius Smith: 0 tackles. Week 12: Za'Darius Smith: 4 tackles. Think he just decided to quit playing? Must have joined Justin Houston over on the "mailing it in" bench. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SirA1 Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 2 hours ago, Tk3 said: Z through 3 games.. Za'Darius Smith [3 GS]: 16 tackles (3 stuffs), 0 coverage, 5 sacks, 0 forced fumble. Looking like the NSFL DPOY early on Za'Darius Smith through 12 games Za'Darius Smith [12 GS]: 44 tackles (11 stuffs), 1 coverage, 6 sacks, 1 forced fumble. Still getting some decent stuffs, but just 1 sack in the last 9 games Week 11: Za'Darius Smith: 0 tackles. Week 12: Za'Darius Smith: 4 tackles. Think he just decided to quit playing? 1 hour ago, RuskieTitan said: Must have joined Justin Houston over on the "mailing it in" bench. Is this the sim version of defenses start out dominate at the beginning of the year and then the offenses take over by the midway point of the season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SirA1 Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 2 hours ago, EaglesPeteC said: So basically “I beat your *** even though I forgot to try” Yep 22 Forced Fumbles (12 recovered). Next highest is 17 and then its like 12-10. My only defensive player without one is Kevin King. This man likes to take it to the house. Matthew Ioannidis [12 GS]: 39 tackles (9 stuffs), 2 coverages, 2 sacks, 2 forced fumbles, 2 recoveries, 2 touchdowns. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adrenaline_Flux Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 how do i keep winning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RandyMossIsBoss Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 1-7 since beautiful 4-0 start. I mean I knew RNG must have been favorable to go 4-0 but my gawd, this team is fighting to go .500 now. Rough year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malfatron Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 3-7 on predictions but i got the Malf lock of the week correct, as well as Rammys demise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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