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Hunter2_1

How do you see the TB/TB experiment going?

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3 hours ago, Yin-Yang said:

If Jameis sucks, wouldn’t it be sort of impressive for the cast/coaching to get him to be productive? And wouldn’t the team have to be pretty good to get to 8-8 with a QB that sucks and turns it over 30+ times? 

TB isn’t an all-star team but they’re pretty talented. Aside from Jameis-to-Brady & Gronk, they also added a blue chip OL prospect and retained pretty much the entire defense, which was young last year. Another year of experience for the young secondary and Devin White, I don’t see a reason to predict regression (aside from Barrett regressing to his mean)

EDIT: As a side note, I’ve been saying they should‘ve bit the tender bullet and just signed Kareem Hunt. Having Hunt in that backfield is the (second) most obvious move to really hammer home the SB expectations. The first would involve going to the dark side and rolling the dice on AB...

Not necessarily.  It just means that they have a productive offensive scheme because they have great receivers.  I'm saying there's a cap on how much more productive the offense can be.  Where they should improve is turnovers, but they'll probably be regressing a tad in actual yardage.

And I don't worry about regression elsewhere.  They need to do better than regress if they're gonna win the NFCS.  They need improvement, and while I looooved White as a prospect, and I think they had a pretty good draft this year, but I don't expect Wirfs to immediately turn around their pass blocking when that's where he struggled.  And yeah, Barrett probably won't match his 2019 season, so I'm skeptical that they'll have enough improvement to take them to Super Bowl contention.

There's one issue they have, and you're dead on correct.  I liked Calais and Vaughn, but as late rounders.  Neither is enough to turn the run game on the way it needs to to be balanced in  TB.  And Brady is better than Jameis, but that doesn't mean he'll be a world beater.  Arm strength is his big weakness now, which is gonna make it hard for him to capitalize on Evans and Godwin as much as he could.

Mostly, if you don't expect at least dropoff in Brady's play when he's leaving the best coach in the NFL, you're kidding yourself.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Daniel said:

  Arm strength is his big weakness now, which is gonna make it hard for him to capitalize on Evans and Godwin as much as he could.

 

What is your evidence to this?

“He can make all the throws,” Arians said of Brady, whose 43% completion rate in 2019 on passes of 20 or more air yards was his third-highest since it’s been tracked and the seventh-highest in the league in 2019, according to ESPN Stats & Information. (The league average was 38%.) He also threw seven touchdown passes of 20 or more air yards last year, his most since 2006"

Edited by Hunter2_1
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3 hours ago, Daniel said:

Not necessarily.  It just means that they have a productive offensive scheme because they have great receivers.  I'm saying there's a cap on how much more productive the offense can be.  Where they should improve is turnovers, but they'll probably be regressing a tad in actual yardage.

How many other teams with good receivers had sucky QBs that were less productive? Or teams with good offensive schemes? 

It stands to reason that if a team goes 8-8 with a sucky QB that turns it over more than anyone else in the league, then the team is probably pretty solid. 

Quote

And I don't worry about regression elsewhere.  They need to do better than regress if they're gonna win the NFCS.  They need improvement, and while I looooved White as a prospect, and I think they had a pretty good draft this year, but I don't expect Wirfs to immediately turn around their pass blocking when that's where he struggled.  And yeah, Barrett probably won't match his 2019 season, so I'm skeptical that they'll have enough improvement to take them to Super Bowl contention.

Well...yeah. But are you predicting rookie and first year players to get worse? 

The question before was asking about the quality of the Buccaneers team. So if we’re not predicting regression amongst it’s young players on defense (except from maybe Barrett), and the offense is talented with good coaching, then it seems like a solid team to me. Add in Brady, Gronkowski, and a new draft class, I don’t see any glaring roster holes (aside from guard). 

I get it’s the offseason so optimism is in the air, but at the same time, it’s a prediction thread. 

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Mostly, if you don't expect at least dropoff in Brady's play when he's leaving the best coach in the NFL, you're kidding yourself.

Maybe, maybe not. The drop off in quality of HC is obviously significant, but it’s also a massive swing up in talent and offensive scheming. So no one’s expecting TB to be New England or the south, but strictly from the QB’s POV, lots of things are getting better. 

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37 minutes ago, sammymvpknight said:

I'm not going to bet on a 43 year old QB. I don't care if he is the greatest of all-time. 

Right, I like the Saints because they use all of their QBs in a rotation almost like a regular position....its really crazy too see.....Payton is a genius.....whats sort of crazy is I think the Bucs should of done the same thing.....the same way I said Winston should play for free to get a year to learn from Brees.....it would have been the same scenario with a year to learn from Brady!

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22 minutes ago, MonserinNC said:

Right, I like the Saints because they use all of their QBs in a rotation almost like a regular position....its really crazy too see.....Payton is a genius.....whats sort of crazy is I think the Bucs should of done the same thing.....the same way I said Winston should play for free to get a year to learn from Brees.....it would have been the same scenario with a year to learn from Brady!

LOL for the record, I wouldn't bet on a 41 year old Brees either. Statistically, both should have dropped off by now. I think that both HAVE dropped off to a certain extent, but if they play long enough they have to either get hurt or drop off a cliff. And you are right, the Saints back-up situation is infinitely better than the Bucs. I think that the Saints could still easily be a playoff team without Brees at this point.

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3 hours ago, Hunter2_1 said:

What is your evidence to this?

Watching games in the past couple of years?  I put zero stock in Arians saying it isn't.

Tom's arm strength has gone down.  I really didn't think anyone disputed that.

1 hour ago, Yin-Yang said:

How many other teams with good receivers had sucky QBs that were less productive? Or teams with good offensive schemes? 

It stands to reason that if a team goes 8-8 with a sucky QB that turns it over more than anyone else in the league, then the team is probably pretty solid. 

"Sucky QB" is oversimplifying it.  There was a point during the season where some were thinking Jameis was coming back, if you'll recall.  What's sucky about him is that he holds the ball too long and throws a ton of INTs, but that does not mean that he does that every game.  He had good games and bad.

So while I acknowledge that yes, the Bucs have several strengths, they also still have glaring weaknesses.

1 hour ago, Yin-Yang said:

Well...yeah. But are you predicting rookie and first year players to get worse? 

The question before was asking about the quality of the Buccaneers team. So if we’re not predicting regression amongst it’s young players on defense (except from maybe Barrett), and the offense is talented with good coaching, then it seems like a solid team to me. Add in Brady, Gronkowski, and a new draft class, I don’t see any glaring roster holes (aside from guard). 

Again, no.  I only said it's unlikely that Barrett plays as well as he did last year.  I'm saying that just "not regressing" isn't good enough for the holes they have.

And yeah, everyone looks better on paper.  And yet, some teams will be worse.  RB is still a significant hole.

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19 minutes ago, sammymvpknight said:

LOL for the record, I wouldn't bet on a 41 year old Brees either. Statistically, both should have dropped off by now. I think that both HAVE dropped off to a certain extent, but if they play long enough they have to either get hurt or drop off a cliff. And you are right, the Saints back-up situation is infinitely better than the Bucs. I think that the Saints could still easily be a playoff team without Brees at this point.

A Payton coached Jameis Winston with Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara. And Hill playing his same role.....to me is easily better than any situation in the NFC south.....then oh yeah, lets just toss in Brees

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Posted (edited)
On 12/06/2020 at 7:57 PM, Daniel said:

Watching games in the past couple of years?  I put zero stock in Arians saying it isn't.

Tom's arm strength has gone down.  I really didn't think anyone disputed that.

 

 

Well, people should definitely despute "his arm strength is his big weakness now". This needs backing up. And I have seen plenty of people state the arm strength is still there. Whilst it may have declined, it certainly isn't a big weakness now. He didn't have THE strongest arm even at his peak, and he can still throw strong outs, or flat intermediate balls. If you can show me stats that show a big decline in his arm strength, I'd believe you.

 

The most noticeable drop-off in his play last season was actually decision making. Made some uncharacteristically poor throws (in terms of why he throw it, not how).

Edited by Hunter2_1

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5 hours ago, Hunter2_1 said:

Well, people should definitely despute "his arm strength is his big weakness now". This needs backing up. And I have seen plenty of people state the arm strength is still there. Whilst it may have declined, it certainly isn't a big weakness now. He didn't have THE strongest arm even at his peak, and he can still throw strong outs, or flat intermediate balls. If you can show me stats that show a big decline in his arm strength, I'd believe you.

The most noticeable drop-off in his play last season was actually decision making. Made some uncharacteristically poor throws (in terms of why he throw it, not how).

OK, my bad, I should have been clearer on what I meant by that.  I'm not saying his arm is super weak.  By big weakness, I meant that that seems to be his biggest limitation as a QB right now.  It has declined, and with him getting older, I expect, as I think is reasonable, we'll see it decline even more by the finish of next season.

And I'm no expert, so you might be correct.  I can't speak to his decisionmaking off the top of my head, and IIRC, you're a Pats fan, so I can't dispute you too much on that.

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10 hours ago, The Helicopter said:

I really wanted to see this play out, for both TB and NE. Thanks to COVID-19, we may never know the answer...

I'm sure we will. Europe has already restarted soccer, so I don't see why the NFL season can't go ahead now.

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On 6/14/2020 at 9:35 AM, Daniel said:

OK, my bad, I should have been clearer on what I meant by that.  I'm not saying his arm is super weak.  By big weakness, I meant that that seems to be his biggest limitation as a QB right now.  It has declined, and with him getting older, I expect, as I think is reasonable, we'll see it decline even more by the finish of next season.

And I'm no expert, so you might be correct.  I can't speak to his decisionmaking off the top of my head, and IIRC, you're a Pats fan, so I can't dispute you too much on that.

Put it this way, Brady’s arm now is still better just on eye test than Peyton’s when he came back from his neck injury and lost a ton of velocity. And he was still good enough to win an MVP after that with a strong supporting cast. 
 

At the QB position it’s a fine line between it barely being good enough and it barely not being good enough. Brady last years was still more than good enough. Unless he experiences a massive decline this year, he should be fine with that offense. 
 

Brady was actually pretty good on deep balls last year because he kinda needed to be with the Pats offense compared to other years. His biggest problem last season was that he finally lost all faith in the offense and started making some desperate throws and I’ll advised throws to get something going. He isn’t going to have they problem in Tampa. 
 

The only thing stopping him from putting up big numbers in Tampa is going to be an injury 

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On 6/16/2020 at 3:21 AM, Hunter2_1 said:

I'm sure we will. Europe has already restarted soccer, so I don't see why the NFL season can't go ahead now.

I defer to the chaos of MLB

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9 hours ago, The Helicopter said:

I defer to the chaos of MLB

What's happening?

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