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Random stat: Julio Jones has the 3rd least TD receptions for WRs with at least 700 receptions


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5'9" slot receiver Wes Welker and Eric Moulds are the only WRs with less. They have 50 and 49 respectively. There are a total of 42 WRs in NFL history that meet this threshold and former fellow Falcons WR Roddy White had 6 more touchdowns on 11 more receptions while playing in mostly the same conditions minus Matt Ryan for 3 seasons.

Not a Julio Jones hate thread it's just an amazing and bizarre stat to me. Julio Jones is one of the most athletically gifted WRs ever. He's only been injured once. He plays at least 11 games every season in a dome/outside in warm weather. He has a great QB. He's had several other receiving options to take some pressure off.

He still can't score touchdowns. Conversely he dwarfs his peers with a 9.68 receiving yards per target. Marques Colston is 2nd with 8.88. Nearly a whole yard less. I'm struggling to think of another as gifted as Julio that similarly struggles in an important era of their game.

If 700 is an arbitrary threshold, I put up the link for 675. Only Gary Clark and Terance Mathis barely missed and they both scored more TDs than him still

http://pfref.com/tiny/h1jnU

 

 

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8 minutes ago, TakeTheBallDeep said:

Why is it though? Bad/average/non elite QB play or are their bodies (height/flexibility) just not meant for lots of RZ Targets? 

Might be a combo of things. They’re not twitchy guys like Brown or OBJ, able to get quick separation. They’re also not as physically imposing as Megatron or a Brandon Marshall. And as great as Julio is, he’s not the guy that plucks it out the air quite like an AJ Green or Deandre Hopkins. So if I had to guess, it’s the idea that the most imposing parts of their game, aren’t the best RZ skills - where you’re looking for monster size, great/twitchy footwork or quickness, or the uncanny ability to skywalk. 

But then again, TO sort of fit that mold too, and he did just fine. So who really knows.

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So, it's something I've noticed about Julio over the years, and it's something I also noticed in regards to Andre Johnson back at his peak, but like...would this make ANYBODY not want these guys on their team!? Oh my god I'd take them in a second.

I know touchdowns are necessary to win, but I feel like how teams actually get those TDs has a much higher...variance, I guess(?) compared to how teams manage to chew through yards effectively in order to get into range to get those points. I love gaudy TD stats as much as the next guy, but I think a better indicator of a player's true skill is yardage, and specifically efficient chunks of yardage.

In goal-to-go situations, teams just have so many different options for how they want to try to sneak that ball past the defense, and oftentimes I think trying to take the time to get the ball all the way out to the perimeter isn't the most prudent. Maybe it takes too much time to develop, too much room for error, or it's harder for a receiver to find space. On the flipside, handing the ball off, or hitting the RB in the flat, or letting a tight end body up to a safety that he has a 4 inch and 40 pound advantage on may be preferable.

So yeah, I generally don't massively discredit a receiver who has somewhat slight TD numbers, as long as they are catching a good number of balls at a good YPR/YPT. It's one thing if they somehow are only getting 2-3 TDs per year, but if they're getting 8-9, at the end of the day that isn't THAT different to me than 10-12.

Edited by DannyB
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57 minutes ago, DannyB said:

So, it's something I've noticed about Julio over the years, and it's something I also noticed in regards to Andre Johnson back at his peak, but like...would this make ANYBODY not want these guys on their team!? Oh my god I'd take them in a second.

I know touchdowns are necessary to win, but I feel like how teams actually get those TDs has a much higher...variance, I guess(?) compared to how teams manage to chew through yards effectively in order to get into range to get those points. I love gaudy TD stats as much as the next guy, but I think a better indicator of a player's true skill is yardage, and specifically efficient chunks of yardage.

In goal-to-go situations, teams just have so many different options for how they want to try to sneak that ball past the defense, and oftentimes I think trying to take the time to get the ball all the way out to the perimeter isn't the most prudent. Maybe it takes too much time to develop, too much room for error, or it's harder for a receiver to find space. On the flipside, handing the ball off, or hitting the RB in the flat, or letting a tight end body up to a safety that he has a 4 inch and 40 pound advantage on may be preferable.

So yeah, I generally don't massively discredit a receiver who has somewhat slight TD numbers, as long as they are catching a good number of balls at a good YPR/YPT. It's one thing if they somehow are only getting 2-3 TDs per year, but if they're getting 8-9, at the end of the day that isn't THAT different to me than 10-12.

I'll take a slightly less physically gifted WR that's going to get me 5-6 more touchdowns. The extra yard is cool but an extra touchdown definitely helps you win more games. It's like would you rather a your pass rusher have more hurries or sacks? You can do some roundabout logic about how hypothetically in a right situation a hurry could lead to a more disadvantage outcome (like an interception). A sack is always definitively a negative play though by definition.

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5 minutes ago, Malik said:

I'll take a slightly less physically gifted WR that's going to get me 5-6 more touchdowns. The extra yard is cool but an extra touchdown definitely helps you win more games. It's like would you rather a your pass rusher have more hurries or sacks? You can do some roundabout logic about how hypothetically in a right situation a hurry could lead to a more disadvantage outcome (like an interception). A sack is always definitively a negative play though by definition.

Give me an example of a less-physically gifted receiver who catches more TDs

Because it's a tough debate to have just in theory. Of COURSE actual TDs are nice. But my point is that yardage numbers are usually more consistent with a great WR, and that yardage contributes more heavily to team success (i.e., the TEAM scoring). Again, it's all a bit nebulous without real examples.

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14 hours ago, Malik said:

I'll take a slightly less physically gifted WR that's going to get me 5-6 more touchdowns. The extra yard is cool but an extra touchdown definitely helps you win more games. It's like would you rather a your pass rusher have more hurries or sacks? You can do some roundabout logic about how hypothetically in a right situation a hurry could lead to a more disadvantage outcome (like an interception). A sack is always definitively a negative play though by definition.

Is that less physically gifted WR demanding a DBL team? Opening up the rest of the field for others to thrive? Or is he the type benefitting from a True #1 on the field?

Curious would you rather of have

2017 Julio Jones 1440 yds, 3TD

Or

2017 Nelson Agholor 768 yds, 8TD

That's pretty much what you just described. 

Edited by Nabbs4u
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I was about to say he's predominately a field stretching, long-ranged type reciever - and was going to do some sort of analogy with a haulage truck being great everywhere except parking, but then that would be unfair to Julio's other skills like jumping, boxing DBs out, change of direction etc. All skills that you'd think would be useful in the RZ and when you're knocking on the door from short range.

Is it something to do with play-calling then?

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2 hours ago, Hunter2_1 said:

Is it something to do with play-calling then?

It's interesting to note that both Julio and AJ played in a variant of a Kyle Shanahan WCO - Shanahan was the OC for both of them at their respective peaks.

Is this an ominous sign for Deebo Samuel?

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3 hours ago, DannyB said:

Unimpressed GIF on GIFER - by Tojind

 

 

 

Vince Mc Mahon Falling GIF - VinceMcMahon Falling In GIFs

Extra yds don't mean that much, 5 extra TD do. Right? I mean I guess one could argue the Eagles did win the SB in 2017 with Agholor after Julio dropped his TD. Won't be me though!!!

Give me Julio!

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8 hours ago, DannyB said:

Give me an example of a less-physically gifted receiver who catches more TDs

Because it's a tough debate to have just in theory. Of COURSE actual TDs are nice. But my point is that yardage numbers are usually more consistent with a great WR, and that yardage contributes more heavily to team success (i.e., the TEAM scoring). Again, it's all a bit nebulous without real examples.

Antonio Brown was the obvious one before he went AWOL. DeAndre Hopkins is another. A healthy Odell. Tyreek Hill.

5 hours ago, Nabbs4u said:

Is that less physically gifted WR demanding a DBL team? Opening up the rest of the field for others to thrive? Or is he the type benefitting from a True #1 on the field?

Curious would you rather of have

2017 Julio Jones 1440 yds, 3TD

Or

2017 Nelson Agholor 768 yds, 8TD

That's pretty much what you just described. 

That's disrespectful. I'm comparing him to over great WRs. I'd much rather Devante Adams in 2018 who had 1386 yards and 13 touchdowns over Julio who had 1677 and 8TDs. I'll take 300 less yards for 5 more touchdowns.

Edited by Malik
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