Random stat: Julio Jones has the 3rd least TD receptions for WRs with at least 700 receptions

[LowMotorGuy]

Touchdowns win games.

Julio dropping a touchdown against the Eagles in a playoff game matters.

[GordyTheGoffer]

Yeh, its been a running story for 3 years now, they seem to use him as a decoy in the red zone.

Edited June 9, 2020 by GordyTheGoffer

[ILoveTheVikings]

7 hours ago, Duluther said:

This is exactly what I’m thinking every time people diss Julio because of his TD number. It’s textbook using stats rather than play to judge a player. Of course Julio could get more TD’s - what in his actual play and ability are actual predications that he can’t? But why force it to him when he’s double covered and another guy is left open? 

Sounds familiar

 

[scar988]

13 hours ago, Malik said:

I think extremely high of him of Julio. That's why his lack of TDs is bizarre to me.

 

I mean I guess. He has the least TDs ever for WRs of his class. You can make the same sort of arguments about any number of them. Some have had better QBs. Some have had worse. Some have had years in great offenses with a plethora of weapons. Some have been the only option. He still has the least.

And that's fine. But using individual TDs (which are SUPER high variance from player to player) isn't a good measure. Especially considering the function of the offense. Matt Ryan doesn't have a ton of passing TDs compared to his contemporaries, either. Because during Ryan's entire time in Atlanta, the Falcons like to actually run the ball in the red zone and use the backs to vulture TDs. Is that really a huge issue as long as the offense is scoring? I don't think it is.

 

10 hours ago, Duluther said:

This is exactly what I’m thinking every time people diss Julio because of his TD number. It’s textbook using stats rather than play to judge a player. Of course Julio could get more TD’s - what in his actual play and ability are actual predications that he can’t? But why force it to him when he’s double covered and another guy is left open? 

Bingo. If you have Julio Jones doubled, but Calvin Ridley, Roddy White, Tony Gonzalez, Tevin Coleman, Austin Hooper or Mo Sanu open in the red zone with 1/2 a zone defender covering them, what would you throw to?

 

5 hours ago, LowMotorGuy said:

Touchdowns win games.

Julio dropping a touchdown against the Eagles in a playoff game matters.

He was totally held on that play.

[Duluther]

7 hours ago, Malik said:

Do you think Julio Jones is the only great WR in the history of the NFL that gets double covered? He isn't. It isn't like he consistently on the most successful offensives in the history of the NFL where you could make the argument that the playstyle is more beneficial to his team winning. It's literally everyone. He's not middle of the road. 

When did I say he is the only great receiver to receive double coverage? Every receiver ever could be double covered every play and my premise would still be intact because that’s irrelevant to it.

 My premise is how the Falcons scheme and execute on offense. Below are yearly RedZone stats for Julio and his contemporaries.

——

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2019/redzone-receiving.htm (2019)

16th in RZ targets which is very low for a top flight receiver. That’s evidently due to scheme because his catch% and TDs are not at all in relation to the targets.

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2018/redzone-receiving.htm (2018)

Only 19th I’m targets but has a very high target/TD ratio.

 

2017 RZ stats weren’t favorable for him which makes sense as he played all games since the beginning of October with injuries (hip in October, ankle later).

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2016/redzone-receiving.htm (2016)

96th in RZ targets. Not a typo. Absurdly small sample size.

 

——

Now if Atlanta was not scoring TD’s with their primary RZ targets, then not targeting Julio amidst double coverage would not be justified. But that isn’t the case; the stats show Atlanta had good schemes and good execution. Julio did his part in making that work.

Atlanta was top 10 in RZ TD% in 4 of the last 6 seasons (2014, 2015, 2016, 2018). There’s no need for further justification for Julio’s lack of targets, and thus bulk TD stats.

[AkronsWitness]

On 6/7/2020 at 10:26 PM, Yin-Yang said:

Might be a combo of things. They’re not twitchy guys like Brown or OBJ, able to get quick separation. They’re also not as physically imposing as Megatron or a Brandon Marshall. And as great as Julio is, he’s not the guy that plucks it out the air quite like an AJ Green or Deandre Hopkins. So if I had to guess, it’s the idea that the most imposing parts of their game, aren’t the best RZ skills - where you’re looking for monster size, great/twitchy footwork or quickness, or the uncanny ability to skywalk. 

But then again, TO sort of fit that mold too, and he did just fine. So who really knows.

I was going to say the same thing. Hes not a 'plucky' guy with the ball like you mentioned and he isnt super quick to get fast separation in short space. I dont know if this is maybe overblowing it but he doesnt seem to have a consistently huge catch radius. I think he is similar to Demaryius Thomas in that way where they are both big bodies but dont go up and pluck the ball like Hopkins/OBJ can. 

Both DT/Julio both just seem a little stiff at times in their body movement to where they cant contort their bodies to make difficult tight window catches in the RZ. They are both great down the field and over the middle in space but they are both sort of stiff and non-plucky in short spaces.

Edited June 9, 2020 by AkronsWitness

[scar988]

1 hour ago, AkronsWitness said:

I was going to say the same thing. Hes not a 'plucky' guy with the ball like you mentioned and he isnt super quick to get fast separation in short space. I dont know if this is maybe overblowing it but he doesnt seem to have a consistently huge catch radius. I think he is similar to Demaryius Thomas in that way where they are both big bodies but dont go up and pluck the ball like Hopkins/OBJ can. 

Both DT/Julio both just seem a little stiff at times in their body movement to where they cant contort their bodies to make difficult tight window catches in the RZ. They are both great down the field and over the middle in space but they are both sort of stiff and non-plucky in short spaces.

Julio Jones is actually a lot quicker in short spaces than anyone here is giving him credit for. The schemes never call for those short slants for him though.

[DannyB]

I think at some point you just have to leave the stats out of it, watch the tape, and use your brain: The dude is a freaking Megazord on the field. There is no reason his lack of TDs has ANYTHING to do with his skillset or abilities as a football player. It's just kinda a matter of circumstance and flukiness.

[scar988]

2 hours ago, DannyB said:

I think at some point you just have to leave the stats out of it, watch the tape, and use your brain: The dude is a freaking Megazord on the field. There is no reason his lack of TDs has ANYTHING to do with his skillset or abilities as a football player. It's just kinda a matter of circumstance and flukiness.

It's a matter of coaches not centering the offense around him in the red zone and instead using the idea of focus outside of the red zone to Julio, and focus on creating other open men in the red zone with a tired, worn out defense.

[Kiwibrown]

Julio is dominant, he average the most ypg in nfl history, it doesnt matter he isn't scoring tds at a high rate, he is a hofer and one of the best wr to play.

[Chuck80]

On 6/7/2020 at 10:44 PM, DannyB said:

So, it's something I've noticed about Julio over the years, and it's something I also noticed in regards to Andre Johnson back at his peak, but like...would this make ANYBODY not want these guys on their team!? Oh my god I'd take them in a second.

I know touchdowns are necessary to win, but I feel like how teams actually get those TDs has a much higher...variance, I guess(?) compared to how teams manage to chew through yards effectively in order to get into range to get those points. I love gaudy TD stats as much as the next guy, but I think a better indicator of a player's true skill is yardage, and specifically efficient chunks of yardage.

In goal-to-go situations, teams just have so many different options for how they want to try to sneak that ball past the defense, and oftentimes I think trying to take the time to get the ball all the way out to the perimeter isn't the most prudent. Maybe it takes too much time to develop, too much room for error, or it's harder for a receiver to find space. On the flipside, handing the ball off, or hitting the RB in the flat, or letting a tight end body up to a safety that he has a 4 inch and 40 pound advantage on may be preferable.

So yeah, I generally don't massively discredit a receiver who has somewhat slight TD numbers, as long as they are catching a good number of balls at a good YPR/YPT. It's one thing if they somehow are only getting 2-3 TDs per year, but if they're getting 8-9, at the end of the day that isn't THAT different to me than 10-12.

The thing about Julio is even when he's doubled or triple teamed he still catches it, that's one reason the running game and offense did so well in 2016..

 

Same with Andre Johnson and Megatron their impact of making clutch catches opened up so much for the slot or running backs to get into the rz , teams would of been delusional to not double team them , Bill Belicheck mentioned what I just said I'm paraphrasing but basically he said it's not just the catches with Julio it's how he catches it and he's a good yards after the catch talent plus he opens up things for Sanu who's very fast ...

[SmittyBacall]

At some point you got to find a way of doing a better job of scheming the guy open. He’s too talented for him not to be scoring. I don’t but that he “can’t do it”. Also, Matt Ryan doesn’t strike me as the guy to force it his direction if more opportune options can be found elsewhere on the play. 

What do his redzone targets look like? You would really have to analyze the game tape to get some semblance of a definitive answer.

[scar988]

13 hours ago, Chuck80 said:

The thing about Julio is even when he's doubled or triple teamed he still catches it, that's one reason the running game and offense did so well in 2016..

 

Same with Andre Johnson and Megatron their impact of making clutch catches opened up so much for the slot or running backs to get into the rz , teams would of been delusional to not double team them , Bill Belicheck mentioned what I just said I'm paraphrasing but basically he said it's not just the catches with Julio it's how he catches it and he's a good yards after the catch talent plus he opens up things for Sanu who's very fast ...

Basically. Having Ridley out there now makes it even easier for the Falcons to attack teams. They also REALLY like Hurst.

12 hours ago, SmittyBacall said:

At some point you got to find a way of doing a better job of scheming the guy open. He’s too talented for him not to be scoring. I don’t but that he “can’t do it”. Also, Matt Ryan doesn’t strike me as the guy to force it his direction if more opportune options can be found elsewhere on the play. 

What do his redzone targets look like? You would really have to analyze the game tape to get some semblance of a definitive answer.

Matt Ryan is definitely a guy who finds the open man in the red zone. He and Julio are besties, but he's not gonna force it to a doubled Julio if a singled Hurst or Ridley are open this year. 

And Julio's red zone targets are the ones where he's either schemed open, are RPO situations (Ex: Quick slant vs the Seahawks in the 2016 playoffs) or ones where he's the No. 1 target on a play that the Falcons need late (See SF TD from the 5). Sometimes he gets in a fade where he has to pluck it (See catch vs. the Pats in 2017.).

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

On 6/8/2020 at 6:37 AM, ET80 said:

It's interesting to note that both Julio and AJ played in a variant of a Kyle Shanahan WCO - Shanahan was the OC for both of them at their respective peaks.

Is this an ominous sign for Deebo Samuel?

Oh no. 😂 

@N4L

 

[Malik]

14 hours ago, SmittyBacall said:

At some point you got to find a way of doing a better job of scheming the guy open. He’s too talented for him not to be scoring. I don’t but that he “can’t do it”. Also, Matt Ryan doesn’t strike me as the guy to force it his direction if more opportune options can be found elsewhere on the play. 

What do his redzone targets look like? You would really have to analyze the game tape to get some semblance of a definitive answer.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/J/JoneJu02/splits/#advanced_splits::none