scar988 Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 24 minutes ago, Malik said: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/J/JoneJu02/splits/#advanced_splits::none That literally tells you nothing that a film study would. A film study would show how he's actually used in the red zone. Not just bulk career stats like you posted. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fl0nkerton Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 I guess my line of thinking is: Why wouldn't you try to get your best playmaker the ball in the RZ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scar988 Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 Julio Jones average year: Red Zone: 7.8 catches on 14.3 targets (54.3% catch rate), 59.2 yards, 3.3 TDs. Inside the 10: 3.6 catches on 7.4 targets (47.7% catch rate), 16.1 yards, 2.1 TDs. Matt Ryan average year: Red Zone: 39.4 completions on 69.9 attempts (56.3% completion %), 267.1 yards, 25.1 TDs. Inside the 10: 18.2 completions on 33.5 attempts (54.1% completion %), 81.6 yards, 12.6 TDs. Julio Jones sees: Red zone: 20% completion share, 20% target share, 22% yards share, 13% TD share Inside the 10: 20% completion share, 22% target share, 20% yards share, 17% TD share He's not being targeted in the red zone the same way other big names have been. That's why he doesn;t have as many TDs. Falcons use him as a primary decoy in the red zone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scar988 Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, Fl0nkerton said: I guess my line of thinking is: Why wouldn't you try to get your best playmaker the ball in the RZ Because if he's covered by 2-3 people, why would you try to force it to him when you have other talented players through the years like Tony Gonzalez, Roddy White, Calvin Ridley, Austin Hooper, Devonta Freeman, Tevin Coleman, Michael Turner, etc available. And when you can run the ball inside the red zone. Atlanta calls ~60% run rate inside the 10 during Matt Ryan's career. So Julio Jones getting targeted on 20% of 40% of targets puts his overall red zone usage rate around 8% of the offense. When his usage outside the red zone is around 15% of the offense. That's why his TDs aren't as good as they could be. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fl0nkerton Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 Paying $20mm for a red zone decoy seems like hustling backwards tho lol 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DannyB Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 6 minutes ago, Fl0nkerton said: Paying $20mm for a red zone decoy seems like hustling backwards tho lol I'm generally against paying a premium for a #1 WR, so my comment has nothing to do whether he's worth it or not, HOWEVER, just calling him a red zone decoy is insanely reductive and completely disingenuous. And you know it. Get a better argument. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fl0nkerton Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 3 minutes ago, DannyB said: I'm generally against paying a premium for a #1 WR, so my comment has nothing to do whether he's worth it or not, HOWEVER, just calling him a red zone decoy is insanely reductive and completely disingenuous. And you know it. Get a better argument. My remark was tongue-in-cheek. He's obviously much more than that, I'd just think that he'd be schemed open or something because he can outrun and outjump most DBs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swoosh Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 1 hour ago, scar988 said: Julio Jones average year: Red Zone: 7.8 catches on 14.3 targets (54.3% catch rate), 59.2 yards, 3.3 TDs. Inside the 10: 3.6 catches on 7.4 targets (47.7% catch rate), 16.1 yards, 2.1 TDs. Matt Ryan average year: Red Zone: 39.4 completions on 69.9 attempts (56.3% completion %), 267.1 yards, 25.1 TDs. Inside the 10: 18.2 completions on 33.5 attempts (54.1% completion %), 81.6 yards, 12.6 TDs. Julio Jones sees: Red zone: 20% completion share, 20% target share, 22% yards share, 13% TD share Inside the 10: 20% completion share, 22% target share, 20% yards share, 17% TD share He's not being targeted in the red zone the same way other big names have been. That's why he doesn;t have as many TDs. Falcons use him as a primary decoy in the red zone. I think this just goes to show what a terrible red zone offense the Falcons have had recently. Some interesting stats from the five past seasons: 2019: 5th in yards; 13th in scoring; 25th in red zone scoring (TDs only) 2018: 6th in yards; 10th in scoring; 10th in red zone scoring (TDs only) 2017: 8th in yards: 15th in scoring; 23rd in red zone scoring (TDs only) 2016: 2nd in yards: 1st in scoring; 8th in red zone scoring (TDs only) 2015: 7th in yards: 21st in scoring; 18th in red zone scoring (TDs only) Averages: 6th in yards; 12th in scoring; 17th in red zone scoring. Red zone offense is why they're only 12th in scoring despite being 6th in yards. 17th in red zone scoring for an offense this good with as many playmakers as they have had is just inexcusable. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N4L Posted June 11, 2020 Share Posted June 11, 2020 (edited) 12 hours ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said: Oh no. 😂 @N4L Im fine with deebo not having too many receiving touchdowns, as long as he gets those rushing touchdowns (old FF emoticons ftw) I watched Deebo kill it during senior bowl redzone drills. He has strong hands and goes over the middle. I think he can be Anquan Boldin esque - boldin is a HOFer and deebo isn't close to that yet, but stylistically they are similar. Boldin scored plenty of TDs in his career. Also, Kyle Shanahan's offense's inconsistencies in the RZ don't matter if you catch a 10 yard pass over the middle and score a 40 yard TD On 6/8/2020 at 8:36 AM, Forge said: Hard to say. I don't think Deebo is an elite number one type receiver, nor is he particularly big or twitchy, so on the surface, he honestly wouldn't seem like a red zone monster. Kittle should probably be number 1 in that regard, and then the running backs, and honestly, out of the receivers, Kendrick Bourne the last two years has been very clearly the most comfortable receiver in the red zone. I guess you and I have different opinions on 'twitchy'. I think guys with good short area burst would fall into that category but I guess you don't agree. I really think he turned a corner late in the year and am hoping he takes a step forward this offseason. There is a ton of WR talent out there right now so I understand why you say he wont ever be 'elite' (which really should mean top 5 at most) but he is a very skilled WR who makes the most out of every opportunity. His mindset and attitude is why I expect so much from him moving forward Would you consider anquan boldin an elite number one receiver? Julio doesn't get a lot of touchdowns because teams either double him, or matt ryan doesn't even look at him. Ryan basically always assumes that julio is double covered and immediately looks elsewhere. Either that or he just throws a duck out of bounds and hopes julio comes down with it. I know @scar988 is saying that ryan isn't going to force it to him and I get that, but it just seems like the falcons don't make a concerted effort to get julio redzone targets unless its a gotta have it type of situation. They need to motion him, stack him in trips, line him up in the backfield or something to get him a free release. Its like they only have 3 plays they run to actually try and get him the ball inside the 10 and want to 'save it' for later in the year or something. Just score the damn TDs and then once teams adjust from the film you can make adjustments as well. That's football. Edited June 11, 2020 by N4L Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted June 11, 2020 Share Posted June 11, 2020 1 hour ago, N4L said: I guess you and I have different opinions on 'twitchy'. I think guys with good short area burst would fall into that category but I guess you don't agree Could just be that my bar for classifying a guy as twitchy is higher in my totally arbitrary and subjective tier classification system Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scar988 Posted June 11, 2020 Share Posted June 11, 2020 7 hours ago, N4L said: Julio doesn't get a lot of touchdowns because teams either double him, or matt ryan doesn't even look at him. Ryan basically always assumes that julio is double covered and immediately looks elsewhere. Either that or he just throws a duck out of bounds and hopes julio comes down with it. I know @scar988 is saying that ryan isn't going to force it to him and I get that, but it just seems like the falcons don't make a concerted effort to get julio redzone targets unless its a gotta have it type of situation. They need to motion him, stack him in trips, line him up in the backfield or something to get him a free release. Its like they only have 3 plays they run to actually try and get him the ball inside the 10 and want to 'save it' for later in the year or something. Just score the damn TDs and then once teams adjust from the film you can make adjustments as well. That's football. It's definitely coaching that's an issue in the red zone. I think the best thing they could do is go back to the model that worked the best in 16 and 18 which is give Ryan 2-3 calls in the huddle and let him choose the play on the line based on the defensive look. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N4L Posted June 12, 2020 Share Posted June 12, 2020 On 6/10/2020 at 10:31 PM, N4L said: I watched Deebo kill it during senior bowl redzone drills. He has strong hands and goes over the middle. I think he can be Anquan Boldin esque - boldin is a HOFer and deebo isn't close to that yet, but stylistically they are similar. Boldin scored plenty of TDs in his career. Alright, which one of yall is David Lipinski / Running the 4th and 9 page ? LOL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scar988 Posted June 12, 2020 Share Posted June 12, 2020 On 6/10/2020 at 4:49 PM, swoosh said: I think this just goes to show what a terrible red zone offense the Falcons have had recently. Some interesting stats from the five past seasons: 2019: 5th in yards; 13th in scoring; 25th in red zone scoring (TDs only) 2018: 6th in yards; 10th in scoring; 10th in red zone scoring (TDs only) 2017: 8th in yards: 15th in scoring; 23rd in red zone scoring (TDs only) 2016: 2nd in yards: 1st in scoring; 8th in red zone scoring (TDs only) 2015: 7th in yards: 21st in scoring; 18th in red zone scoring (TDs only) Averages: 6th in yards; 12th in scoring; 17th in red zone scoring. Red zone offense is why they're only 12th in scoring despite being 6th in yards. 17th in red zone scoring for an offense this good with as many playmakers as they have had is just inexcusable. I completely agree. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DannyB Posted June 12, 2020 Share Posted June 12, 2020 On 6/11/2020 at 2:41 AM, Forge said: Could just be that my bar for classifying a guy as twitchy is higher in my totally arbitrary and subjective tier classification system Within a few years, I've heard that top scientists will have developed a Universal Standard Scale of Twitchification, which takes a multitude variables, puts them through an algorithm, and measures an individual's composite Twitchosity. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted June 12, 2020 Share Posted June 12, 2020 1 hour ago, DannyB said: Within a few years, I've heard that top scientists will have developed a Universal Standard Scale of Twitchification, which takes a multitude variables, puts them through an algorithm, and measures an individual's composite Twitchosity. And they will still be wrong. Everyone knows it's my measure of twitch that matters because I'm a dude on a message board with an opinion. Dude on message board with opinion >>>>>>>>>>> scientists Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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