Jump to content

Random stat: Julio Jones has the 3rd least TD receptions for WRs with at least 700 receptions


Malik

Recommended Posts

On 6/9/2020 at 5:38 AM, GordyTheGoffer said:

Yeh, its been a running story for 3 years now, they seem to use him as a decoy in the red zone.

That's simply not true and never has been...

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2019/redzone-receiving.htm

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2018/redzone-receiving.htm

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2017/redzone-receiving.htm

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2016/redzone-receiving.htm

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2015/redzone-receiving.htm

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2014/redzone-receiving.htm

 

There's only been two years in the last 6 where Jones wasn't a top 15 Red Zone Target... 2014 and 2016.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 6/10/2020 at 2:54 PM, scar988 said:

Julio Jones average year:

Red Zone: 7.8 catches on 14.3 targets (54.3% catch rate), 59.2 yards, 3.3 TDs.

Inside the 10: 3.6 catches on 7.4 targets (47.7% catch rate), 16.1 yards, 2.1 TDs.

Matt Ryan average year:

Red Zone: 39.4 completions on 69.9 attempts (56.3% completion %), 267.1 yards, 25.1 TDs.

Inside the 10: 18.2 completions on 33.5 attempts (54.1% completion %), 81.6 yards, 12.6 TDs.

 

Julio Jones sees:

Red zone: 20%  completion share, 20% target share, 22% yards share, 13% TD share

Inside the 10: 20%  completion share, 22% target share, 20% yards share, 17% TD share

 

He's not being targeted in the red zone the same way other big names have been. That's why he doesn;t have as many TDs. Falcons use him as a primary decoy in the red zone.

You can't ignore that 7% drop off... That's SIGNIFICANT. And let's not pretend that a 20% Red Zone Target Share is minimal...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 6/13/2020 at 4:21 PM, BlaqOptic said:

You can't ignore that 7% drop off... That's SIGNIFICANT. And let's not pretend that a 20% Red Zone Target Share is minimal...

20% target share of a 60-40 run-pass split for the Falcons... They run the ball in the red zone. Julio doesn’t see as many targets inside the 10 as he should. And he isn’t schemed open when he does get those targets. Lots of trying to beat two on ones or matchup zones. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 6/8/2020 at 5:37 AM, ET80 said:

It's interesting to note that both Julio and AJ played in a variant of a Kyle Shanahan WCO - Shanahan was the OC for both of them at their respective peaks.

Is this an ominous sign for Deebo Samuel?

Deebo has crazy releasing ability. And he's getting pre-snap motion. Doesn't really have a weakness to his game skill-set wise. He's not the biggest WR, not the fastest, but he's good in every area going back to college and dynamite with the ball in his hands. Also, you figure that Jalen Hurd SHOULD be drawing double teams in the red zone. I mean, he's the same type of wingback as Deebo, and he's several inches taller and noticeably bigger. Heck, Hurd was a star RB in the SEC at one point. And then you have Aiyuk... This San Francisco offense is going to be very interesting. All these WRs have some skill-set differences where they could be used differently, but they ALL also can be deployed the same way in a wing-type role. So I figure that Deebo could have better total red zone numbers than Julio, as Deebo is getting used somewhat frequently in a way that Julio/AJ really never were. Lots of pre-snap motion to pull man, and if teams counter with zone, Deebo is pretty good at sitting in soft spots. His ability to do so is very much like Christian Kirk or Randall Cobb, if that makes any sense, except Deebo can rip the ball away and punish people in contested situations in a way that Kirk or Cobb can't.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 6/13/2020 at 9:17 PM, BlaqOptic said:

Its all relative buddy, some would tell you that there are few true no 1 WR'S in the league and that Julio is absolutely one of the best.

To say he has been in the "top 15" in red zone receptions most years out of a bunch of recent years, is not a strong argument for a true no 1 WR. Since I was talking about the last 3 years lets focus on that...

2017 - total targets = 148 (9th most in league) / Red Zone Targets = 18 (14th most in league)

2018 - total targets = 170 (4th most in league) / Red Zone Targets = 17 (19th most in league)

2019 - total targets = 157 (6th most in league) / Red Zone Targets = 16 (18th most in league)

So as you can see, during the last 3 seasons Julio saw a noticeable dip in targets when the birds reached the end zone, the QB starts to look at other players when the field shrinks and if they are not using Julio as a decoy in these situations, then what the hell are they doing? They are not handing him the ball as much as they do elsewhere on the field and they are not giving him a high percentage of targets in the red zone. Compared to other no 1's he's suffering.

Rgds

Edited by GordyTheGoffer
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Julio was drafted in 2011.

Here are the Falcons rankings in scoring in every year that he played more than 5 games.

  • 7,7,12,21,1,15,10,13  - That's 1 bad year in 8 seasons.

Here are the rankings in yards in those 8 seasons:

  • 10,8,8,7,2,8,6,5 - That's 8 very good to great years.

The one year he missed 11 games they ranked 20 in points and 14 in yards.

 

I think its safe to say that Julio Jones has been the best player on a pretty special offense throughout his career.

If he gets a bunch more double teams in the Red Zone and Ryan finds the open man then they still get the 7 points.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Here are some raw red zone splits on some elite receivers. I include DeSean Jackson for the speed WR example, not as a knock on him.

I also included Megatron because Megatron and Andre Johnson because he was a great WR who also did not put up huge TD numbers.

Lots of these players fall somewhere around that 25%-31% red zone TD catch rate

 

Jones has 30 TDs on 129 Red Zone targets. (15.2 per catch average overall)

Megatron had 48 TDs on 151 targets.  (15.9 per catch overall)

Michael Thomas has 27 TDs on 80 targets  (11.7 per catch overall)

Gronk has 56 TDs on 135 targets (15.1 per catch overall)

Antonio Brown has 37 TDs on 154 targets (13.4 per catch overall)

Mike Evans has 26 TDs on 90 targets (15.7 per catch overall)

Andre Johnson had 48 TDs on 193 targets (13.4 per catch overall)

OBJ has 27 TDs on 97 targets (14.0 per catch overall)

Davante Adams has 32 TDs on 105 targets (12.1 overall)

DeSean Jackson has 13 TDs on 91 red zone targets (17.4 per catch overall)

Amari Cooper has 13 TDs on 49 targets  (14.3 per catch overall)

Fitzgerald has 82 on 287 targets   (12.4 per catch overall)

 

So it looks like Gronk may be the best pass catcher post-1994 (41.5% red zone TD rate and 15.1 per catch).

Calvin Johnson is not far behind (31ish but 15.9 per catch) 

Thomas is clearly a red zone beast but his 11.7 trails everyone.

Julio does lag a bit behind most of this field in his red zone TD%. You can decide if his yards per catch and bulk catches and yards make up for it.

NOTE: These are just raw stats. Fitz gets penalized for getting old for example (13.6 per catch through his first 9 years but I have no red zone data)

Additional Note:  Pro Football Reference has great splits breakdowns since 1994. That's where I got the data.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 6/16/2020 at 6:18 AM, GordyTheGoffer said:

Its all relative buddy, some would tell you that there are few true no 1 WR'S in the league and that Julio is absolutely one of the best.

To say he has been in the "top 15" in red zone receptions most years out of a bunch of recent years, is not a strong argument for a true no 1 WR. Since I was talking about the last 3 years lets focus on that...

2017 - total targets = 148 (9th most in league) / Red Zone Targets = 18 (14th most in league)

2018 - total targets = 170 (4th most in league) / Red Zone Targets = 17 (19th most in league)

2019 - total targets = 157 (6th most in league) / Red Zone Targets = 16 (18th most in league)

So as you can see, during the last 3 seasons Julio saw a noticeable dip in targets when the birds reached the end zone, the QB starts to look at other players when the field shrinks and if they are not using Julio as a decoy in these situations, then what the hell are they doing? They are not handing him the ball as much as they do elsewhere on the field and they are not giving him a high percentage of targets in the red zone. Compared to other no 1's he's suffering.

Rgds

Relative? He's had 5 total less red zone targets than DeAndre Hopkins over that time and 12 less than Michael Thomas who gets absolutely force-fed the ball. Let's not sit here and pretend Julio is used as a decoy any more than any other elite WR. 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 hours ago, BlaqOptic said:

Relative? He's had 5 total less red zone targets than DeAndre Hopkins over that time and 12 less than Michael Thomas who gets absolutely force-fed the ball. Let's not sit here and pretend Julio is used as a decoy any more than any other elite WR. 

I'm not against you fella, but yes its again all relative. Thomas posted 48 RZ targets over the last 2 years, compared to 33 for Julio, thats a reasonable difference imo and the only reason it levels out slightly over 3 years is because 2017 was Thomas's 2nd year in the league, he was still on his way up then and was not yet a true no 1 WR. You make a fair point about Hopkins RZ targets tho, I would have expected more. But at the end of the day, discussions about Julio's lack of TD's over the last several years is common place, inside and outside of the media.

Edited by GordyTheGoffer
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...