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HTTRDynasty

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  • 4 weeks later...
3 hours ago, HTTRDynasty said:

Pretty interesting.  Designed runs and screen passes have a negative EPA.

 

 

Bruh, I made an enormous post about this ~2ish years ago and the collective NFL Gen hive mind basically called me a moron. I pulled stats and analysis from like 5-6 different sources and they all came to the same opinion that Sid Gilman figured out decades ago: "When a coach tells you they need to establish the run game, they are full of (poop)"

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1 minute ago, Matts4313 said:

Bruh, I made an enormous post about this ~2ish years ago and the collective NFL Gen hive mind basically called me a moron. I pulled stats and analysis from like 5-6 different sources and they all came to the same opinion that Sid Gilman figured out decades ago: "When a coach tells you they need to establish the run game, they are full of (poop)"

Yeah, but that was you.

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On 6/13/2021 at 3:30 PM, Matts4313 said:

Bruh, I made an enormous post about this ~2ish years ago and the collective NFL Gen hive mind basically called me a moron. I pulled stats and analysis from like 5-6 different sources and they all came to the same opinion that Sid Gilman figured out decades ago: "When a coach tells you they need to establish the run game, they are full of (poop)"

I'm with you. I'd much rather have a competent passing game, with "change of play" type of designed runs which are likely to yield higher YPC anyway

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On 6/13/2021 at 12:19 PM, HTTRDynasty said:

Pretty interesting.  Designed runs and screen passes have a negative EPA.

 

 

Screen passes are laughable calls. I worked in a stats office in Las Vegas in the early 2000s. The office would literally burst out into laughter when a team called a screen pass on third down. Nothing had a more miserable track record, especially on manageable distance. And it makes perfect sense. The opponent is not going to allow you to throw a safe wimpy pass behind the marker on third down and ramble for a vital first down.

There is no greater disconnect in the sport than between fan impression of screen passes and how valuable they really are. Somehow everyone loves the trickeration when it works and is willing to ignore the vastly greater number of times it does not work. 

Screen passes are fine when the opponent is totally outmatched. That's why they ramble in high school and also during college games with lopsided pointspreads. Somehow the coaches and coordinators from those games don't grasp that once they move up in class the opposing more aggressive more sophisticated defenses will wipe out those plays.

As a Canes fan I literally screamed when Miami ran a 3rd and 10 screen pass against Ohio State during a pivotal series of that famous national championship game in 2002. I was working in that stats office at the time. So I knew darn well how idiotic those play calls were. The Buckeyes had a phenomenal record against screen passes all season, totally destroying them especially on third down. But obviously the Canes offensive staff had no clue about that. The play not only was wiped out but it was the play that shredded Willis McGahee's knee, totally changing his pro draft status and career.

I always felt like McGahee had a proper lawsuit against his own coaching staff for calling a third down screen pass against that opponent. Never before or since has a severe injury been the result of such a moronic play call. 

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