Jakuvious Posted June 16, 2021 Share Posted June 16, 2021 6 hours ago, Awsi Dooger said: Screen passes are laughable calls. I worked in a stats office in Las Vegas in the early 2000s. The office would literally burst out into laughter when a team called a screen pass on third down. Nothing had a more miserable track record, especially on manageable distance. And it makes perfect sense. The opponent is not going to allow you to throw a safe wimpy pass behind the marker on third down and ramble for a vital first down. There is no greater disconnect in the sport than between fan impression of screen passes and how valuable they really are. Somehow everyone loves the trickeration when it works and is willing to ignore the vastly greater number of times it does not work. Screen passes are fine when the opponent is totally outmatched. That's why they ramble in high school and also during college games with lopsided pointspreads. Somehow the coaches and coordinators from those games don't grasp that once they move up in class the opposing more aggressive more sophisticated defenses will wipe out those plays. As a Canes fan I literally screamed when Miami ran a 3rd and 10 screen pass against Ohio State during a pivotal series of that famous national championship game in 2002. I was working in that stats office at the time. So I knew darn well how idiotic those play calls were. The Buckeyes had a phenomenal record against screen passes all season, totally destroying them especially on third down. But obviously the Canes offensive staff had no clue about that. The play not only was wiped out but it was the play that shredded Willis McGahee's knee, totally changing his pro draft status and career. I always felt like McGahee had a proper lawsuit against his own coaching staff for calling a third down screen pass against that opponent. Never before or since has a severe injury been the result of such a moronic play call. I don't think teams are really trying to convert when they run screen passes on long downs, though. I think most coaches know exactly what they're doing when they call a screen pass on 3rd and 15. They're running a safe play to gain some field position because they don't trust their offense to not screw it up if they actually run routes with a chance to convert. There is no real expectation of conversion. It's exactly the same as the 3rd and long draw play. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DannyB Posted June 16, 2021 Share Posted June 16, 2021 On 6/13/2021 at 12:19 PM, HTTRDynasty said: Pretty interesting. Designed runs and screen passes have a negative EPA. Why don't coaches just run the play off_touchdown all the time? Seems obvious 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugashane Posted June 16, 2021 Share Posted June 16, 2021 11 hours ago, DannyB said: Why don't coaches just run the play off_touchdown all the time? Seems obvious Or at least use 3 QBs for a triple option. I'd still label it a scramble and it has 177.6% chance if success. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeT14 Posted June 16, 2021 Share Posted June 16, 2021 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iknowcool Posted June 16, 2021 Share Posted June 16, 2021 (edited) On 6/13/2021 at 3:30 PM, Matts4313 said: Bruh, I made an enormous post about this ~2ish years ago and the collective NFL Gen hive mind basically called me a moron. I pulled stats and analysis from like 5-6 different sources and they all came to the same opinion that Sid Gilman figured out decades ago: "When a coach tells you they need to establish the run game, they are full of (poop)" Nobody is saying you have to be the Ravens, but there are plenty of valid reasons to run the ball despite the fact you are more likely to get a chunk play throwing the ball. Passing is riskier turnover wise. If you go 3-and-out and only throw the ball, you barely ran any clock. If you go 3-and-out and only ran the ball, you still wasted a couple of minutes off the clock. Helps to control field position. This is especially important late in the game when you are trying to maintain a lead and give the other team as little time as possible to mount a comeback. If it was as simple as "run = bad" and "pass = good," then teams wouldn't run the ball. But that isn't the case, and I think only looking at EPA fails to account for an abundance of other reasons to run the ball. Same with screens, as Jak pointed out. It isn't always about trying to get that 25, 30 yard play. You need to control time of possession and field position. Both things that running the ball effectively can help you do well. Passing is important, and likely more important than running the ball, I don't think many people would disagree with that. But if I remember that thread correctly, you were trying to make it seem like running the ball was pointless or a waste of time. And to me that's just wrong. Edited June 16, 2021 by iknowcool 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HTTRDynasty Posted June 17, 2021 Author Share Posted June 17, 2021 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jakuvious Posted June 17, 2021 Share Posted June 17, 2021 7 minutes ago, HTTRDynasty said: Yeah, this was talked about a lot in the Chiefs forum throughout the season. Once we hit a few injuries, Mahomes stopped trusting the OL, and started bailing regardless of whether there was pressure or not. His internal clock got messed up a bit. Was easily his biggest flaw on the year. It was better in the post season, actually, and then Tampa happened. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mse326 Posted June 17, 2021 Share Posted June 17, 2021 1 hour ago, HTTRDynasty said: While it's something to pay attention to there is a reason all the QBs with the highest percentage are scramblers/good runners and on broken plays. That is part of the game. They will get pressured and sacked more, but also get more positive plays than the guys that just throw it away or force a pass to a guy that isn't really open. It is a balance, so this really only shows part of the equation. You also have to know how many positive plays were obtained by holding onto it longer. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matts4313 Posted June 17, 2021 Share Posted June 17, 2021 1 hour ago, mse326 said: They will get pressured and sacked more, but also get more positive plays than the guys that just throw it away or force a pass to a guy that isn't really open. I have strong doubts this is true. The list of GOAT/HOF caliber QBs is stacked with guys who were quick with diagnosing a defense, not quick with their feet. I think being uber athletic can be a crutch that stymies the most important tribute of a QB: Being able to read a defense and deliver an accurate ball quickly. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mse326 Posted June 17, 2021 Share Posted June 17, 2021 7 hours ago, Matts4313 said: I have strong doubts this is true. The list of GOAT/HOF caliber QBs is stacked with guys who were quick with diagnosing a defense, not quick with their feet. I think being uber athletic can be a crutch that stymies the most important tribute of a QB: Being able to read a defense and deliver an accurate ball quickly. That's a self fulfilling prophecy. It wasn't until recently that being able to run wasn't used as a negative. With that said the list of GOAT/HoF caliber QBs also includes Otto Graham, Fran Tarkenton, John Elway, Steve Young and Aaron Rogers as well as most of the young stud QBs in todays game Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matts4313 Posted June 17, 2021 Share Posted June 17, 2021 9 minutes ago, mse326 said: That's a self fulfilling prophecy. It wasn't until recently that being able to run wasn't used as a negative. Im not sure that it still isnt somewhat negative. 9 minutes ago, mse326 said: With that said the list of GOAT/HoF caliber QBs also includes Otto Graham, Fran Tarkenton, John Elway, Steve Young and Aaron Rogers as well as most of the young stud QBs in todays game Good point. Those arent really running QBs, but do fall under the scrambler stereo type. They are also some of the most arm-talented QBs in the history of the league. Their legs were a secondary tool; not a crutch (as opposed to a Vick or Tebow). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mse326 Posted June 17, 2021 Share Posted June 17, 2021 1 hour ago, Matts4313 said: Im not sure that it still isnt somewhat negative. Good point. Those arent really running QBs, but do fall under the scrambler stereo type. They are also some of the most arm-talented QBs in the history of the league. Their legs were a secondary tool; not a crutch (as opposed to a Vick or Tebow). but what do Vick and Tebow have to do with QBs like Mahomes, Watson, Wilson, Allen etc who clearly have arm talent as well and augment with their ability to move. My point is only that holding the ball does invite more pressures and sacks, but also gives time for a mobile QB to make a play where a WR can get themselves open or the QB finds a running lane. Where an individual's optimum is depends on his abilities both to scramble and throw. So you need to know what benefit they are gaining before you can say a player is holding onto it too long. (I also want to recognize that we are talking overall play but this is also situation specific. While it may be generally beneficial for a QB the QB has to recognize which pressures he can't get out of and also what situations you can't risk the negative result) 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matts4313 Posted June 17, 2021 Share Posted June 17, 2021 https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-2021-quarterback-rankings-analytical Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mse326 Posted June 17, 2021 Share Posted June 17, 2021 3 hours ago, Matts4313 said: https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-2021-quarterback-rankings-analytical Looks like a lot of mobile QBs at the top there. In fact only Brady and Ryan are below the average percentage of pressures caused of the top 15 (I'm counting Herbert as average and Garappolo isn't on that chart). And the only one above average not in the top 15 is Drew Lock. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matts4313 Posted June 17, 2021 Share Posted June 17, 2021 (edited) 10 minutes ago, mse326 said: Looks like a lot of mobile QBs at the top there. In fact only Brady and Ryan are below the average percentage of pressures caused of the top 15 (I'm counting Herbert as average and Garappolo isn't on that chart). And the only one above average not in the top 15 is Drew Lock. This chart is specifically designed to enhance/showcase running ability. The three best metrics for gauging a QB are passing EPA, PFF ranking and ANY/A. They have the most correlation to explaining current success as well as predicting future success. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Final Verdict / TL;DR Top Tier EPA: Most important, not stable, fine predictor, best process/formula PASS EPA: Important, more stable, good predictor, great process/formula QBR: Very Important, not stable, fine predictor, great process/formula PFF Grade: Important, most stable, best predictor, great process/formula ANY/A: Very Important, more stable, good predictor, decent process/formula https://mfootballanalytics.com/2020/04/06/which-qb-stats-are-the-most-important/ Edited June 17, 2021 by Matts4313 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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