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15 minutes ago, kingseanjohn said:

 

I'm going to be that guy.... the threshold on this graph was specifically chosen to exclude Lamar Jackson. I don't know how to calculate EPA, but I would bet he's FAR ahead of anyone on this graph. Granted it's only 2 games (Mahomes has 3), but Lamar's week 1 stats are pro playing Madden on easy level absurd 

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7 hours ago, wackywabbit said:

I'm going to be that guy.... the threshold on this graph was specifically chosen to exclude Lamar Jackson. I don't know how to calculate EPA, but I would bet he's FAR ahead of anyone on this graph. Granted it's only 2 games (Mahomes has 3), but Lamar's week 1 stats are pro playing Madden on easy level absurd 

Lamar only has like 48 week 1 drop backs, so I don't think the threshold of 70 had anything to do with specifically keeping him out of the graph. They could've set the number higher or lower and still included Mahomes and excluded Lamar. Had it been like, greater than 50, and Lamar was at 48, I might agree. That would seem convenient. Normally it's when threshold's are very specific, or there are too many criteria, it's when it gets statistically suspicious.

If it played a factor, I don't think it would be to keep Lamar out, as much as how having the threshold low enough to get Lamar in, makes the whole thing look a good bit sillier. You can't include Lamar without also including Gardner Minshew, and Minshew is absurdly high in CPOE those two games he has to his name. So that's where the sample size gets low enough to include something that just doesn't seem to align with reality. You wind up with 2 guys with only two starts being insane outliers (Lamar and Minshew), which suggest the sample is too small.

I probably would've gone with 3+ games instead of dropbacks, because that would've removed Weeden as well, as an outlier on the other end. But then you might include guys who didn't actually play much of one or more of those games, but still started.

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The Lamar Jackson opening day thing is legit. 

He has 53 week 1 drop backs + however many of those runs started as drop backs.

  • If you count the total runs he's at 70 plays.

 

He was 1-4 for 24 yards and a 52.1 rating as a rookie

He was 17-20 for 320 and 5 TDs at 158.3 (perfect) rating in year 2

He was 20-25 for 275 and 3 TDs at 152.1 rating in year 3.

 

He did not hit 70 drop backs because he came out of the game early both years after the demolition was complete.

  • He left the game after 3 quarters in year 2 and with 8:30 left in the 4th in year 3.

 

Excluding him from that chart is extremely lame.

Edited by SkippyX
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14 hours ago, Matts4313 said:

Dak in his last 4 full games has attempted 224 passes.

Lamar Jackson in the full 2020 season attempted 242 passes. 

Some QBs who have led the league in attempts:

  • Matt Schaub (9 wins)
  • John Kitna (6 wins)
  • Don Majkowski (10 wins)
  • Vinny Testaverde (9 wins)
  • Trent Green (7 wins)
  • Bill Kenny (6 wins)
  • Neil Lomax (7 wins)
  • Joe Montana (3-6 in the strike year)
  • Jameis Winston (7 wins)
  • Jim Zorn (2 wins)
  • Matt Ryan 2020 (4 wins)
  • Steve DeBerg  (2 wins)
  • Joe Furgeson (3 wins)

 

Its not exactly correlated with winning and greatness.

 

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1 hour ago, SkippyX said:

Some QBs who have led the league in attempts:

  • Matt Schaub (9 wins)
  • John Kitna (6 wins)
  • Don Majkowski (10 wins)
  • Vinny Testaverde (9 wins)
  • Trent Green (7 wins)
  • Bill Kenny (6 wins)
  • Neil Lomax (7 wins)
  • Joe Montana (3-6 in the strike year)
  • Jameis Winston (7 wins)
  • Jim Zorn (2 wins)
  • Matt Ryan 2020 (4 wins)
  • Steve DeBerg  (2 wins)
  • Joe Furgeson (3 wins)

 

Its not exactly correlated with winning and greatness.

 

Because anyone with a sliver of football knowledge knows if you are throwing at those levels than chances are you are having to keep up with the other team score-wise. Im not sure what you are trying to prove here except that you have a base level understanding of pa/g...? 

😜

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4 hours ago, Matts4313 said:

Because anyone with a sliver of football knowledge knows if you are throwing at those levels than chances are you are having to keep up with the other team score-wise. Im not sure what you are trying to prove here except that you have a base level understanding of pa/g...? 

😜

I can figure out the difference between Lamar Jackson's 2020 completions and his attempts.

That's some truly basic knowledge and reading comprehension.

Feel free to flex though.

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