Notable Stats

[Matts4313]

Superbowl %:

 

Just now, Matts4313 said:

Show our quarterback-adjusted Elo forecastShow our traditional Elo forecast

						AVERAGE SIMULATED SEASON		PLAYOFF CHANCES
ELO WITH TOP QB	1-WEEK CHANGE	CURRENT QB ADJ.		TEAM	DIVISION	RECORD	POINT DIFF.	MAKE PLAYOFFS	WIN DIVISION	1ST-ROUND BYE	WIN SUPER BOWL
1691	+8			Buccaneers6-1	NFC South	13-4	+172.7	98%	86%	25%	17%
1659				Bills4-2	AFC East	12-5	+201.7	96%	92%	25%	14%
1644	-3			Cardinals7-0	NFC West	14-3	+172.0	99%	67%	36%	12%
1650	+6			Rams6-1	NFC West	13-4	+119.7	97%	32%	16%	10%
1617	+10			Packers6-1	NFC North	12-5	+59.9	94%	84%	10%	7%
1613		-8		Cowboys5-1	NFC East	12-5	+113.2	94%	92%	10%	6%
1575				Chargers4-2	AFC West	11-6	+52.0	82%	55%	16%	6%
1596	-59			Ravens5-2	AFC North	11-6	+55.9	80%	37%	13%	6

 

Just now, Matts4313 said:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2021-nfl-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo

 

[RaidersAreOne]

 

[childofpudding]

7 hours ago, scar988 said:

We've been using him all over the formation. Sometimes WR, sometimes slot, a lot of RB, some TE, he's been doing everything and he's been doing it all very well. How did no other NFL Coach see that he wasn't a true anything and just a chess piece? I was under the impression the Falcons were going to use him the way they used Tevin Coleman in 2016 and haven't really been wrong there.

There was always the idea that he couldn't handle the whole playbook and route tree. Whether he's improved on that or it was a misconception all along I don't know, but he is doing great down there.

[scar988]

1 hour ago, childofpudding said:

There was always the idea that he couldn't handle the whole playbook and route tree. Whether he's improved on that or it was a misconception all along I don't know, but he is doing great down there.

They definitely don’t have him on a full WR route tree. And that’s fine. He’s not a WR. They do have him on a RB who aligns at WR sometimes route tree. Screens, sticks, slants, and a few other things.  

[Matts4313]

NFL Power Rankings (Combined) Week 7 (self.nfl)

Submitted 2 minutes ago by mikebiox

	Team	Wapo	SN	Y!	B/R	CBS	USA	NFL	ESPN	Reddit	Avg	SD	538	CGPR
1	Arizona	3	1	1		1	1	1	1		1.3	0.8	4	1
2	Tampa Bay	2	3	2		4	3	2	2		2.6	0.8	1	3
3	LA Rams	4	2	3		3	2	5	3		3.1	1.1	3	4
4	Green Bay	1	4	5		2	5	6	4		3.9	1.8	5	5
5	Dallas	6	5	4		5	4	4	6		4.9	0.9	6	2
6	Buffalo	8	7	6		6	7	3	5		6.0	1.6	2	10
7	Cincinnati	7	8	7		7	8	7	7		7.3	0.5	12	6
8	Tennessee	5	6	9		8	6	10	9		7.6	1.9	11	9
9	Baltimore	10	10	8		9	9	8	8		8.9	0.9	7	7
10	LA Chargers	13	11	10		10	10	9	10		10.4	1.3	8	8
11	Las Vegas	12	9	11		11	11	11	11		10.9	0.9	17	11
12	New Orleans	9	15	12		12	12	12	13		12.1	1.8	9	12
13	Cleveland	11	12	14		13	14	13	12		12.7	1.1	13	13
14	Kansas City	19	13	13		17	13	14	14		14.7	2.4	10	18
15	Minnesota	14	16	18		14	15	15	17		15.6	1.5	15	15
16	Pittsburgh	16	14	17		15	16	17	15		15.7	1.1	20	14
17	Indianapolis	18	18	16		16	17	16	16		16.7	1.0	14	17
18	New England	17	17	15		18	21	18	18		17.7	1.8	18	19
19	Atlanta	15	19	20		19	25	20	19		19.6	2.9	23	24
20	San Francisco	20	22	19		20	18	19	20		19.7	1.3	19	26
21	Chicago	21	20	24		22	19	23	22		21.6	1.7	24	16
22	Denver	25	24	22		24	20	21	21		22.4	1.9	22	22
23	Seattle	26	21	23		23	22	22	23		22.9	1.6	16	21
24	Carolina	24	23	21		21	27	25	24		23.6	2.1	28	27
25	Philadelphia	23	25	25		26	23	26	25		24.7	1.3	25	23
26	NY Giants	22	27	27		25	26	24	27		25.4	1.9	26	20
27	Washington	27	26	26		27	24	27	26		26.1	1.1	21	25
28	Jacksonville	28	29	28		28	28	28	29		28.3	0.5	29	28
29	Miami	30	30	29		29	29	29	28		29.1	0.7	27	31
30	NY Jets	29	28	30		32	31	31	30		30.1	1.3	31	30
31	Detroit	32	32	31		31	30	30	32		31.1	0.9	32	29
32	Houston	31	31	32		30	32	32	31		31.3	0.8	30	32

[Matts4313]

[SBLIII]

[SBLIII]

[Blackstar12]

Home run picks.

[Joe_is_the_best]

21 hours ago, ET80 said:

That Jags game killed my prediction...

With Tyrod coming back, it’s probably a moot point anyway

[RaidersAreOne]

2 hours ago, agarcia34 said:

 

 

[mse326]

10 hours ago, Matts4313 said:

NFL Power Rankings (Combined) Week 7 (self.nfl)

Submitted 2 minutes ago by mikebiox

	Team	Wapo	SN	Y!	B/R	CBS	USA	NFL	ESPN	Reddit	Avg	SD	538	CGPR
1	Arizona	3	1	1		1	1	1	1		1.3	0.8	4	1
2	Tampa Bay	2	3	2		4	3	2	2		2.6	0.8	1	3
3	LA Rams	4	2	3		3	2	5	3		3.1	1.1	3	4
4	Green Bay	1	4	5		2	5	6	4		3.9	1.8	5	5
5	Dallas	6	5	4		5	4	4	6		4.9	0.9	6	2
6	Buffalo	8	7	6		6	7	3	5		6.0	1.6	2	10
7	Cincinnati	7	8	7		7	8	7	7		7.3	0.5	12	6
8	Tennessee	5	6	9		8	6	10	9		7.6	1.9	11	9
9	Baltimore	10	10	8		9	9	8	8		8.9	0.9	7	7
10	LA Chargers	13	11	10		10	10	9	10		10.4	1.3	8	8
11	Las Vegas	12	9	11		11	11	11	11		10.9	0.9	17	11
12	New Orleans	9	15	12		12	12	12	13		12.1	1.8	9	12
13	Cleveland	11	12	14		13	14	13	12		12.7	1.1	13	13
14	Kansas City	19	13	13		17	13	14	14		14.7	2.4	10	18
15	Minnesota	14	16	18		14	15	15	17		15.6	1.5	15	15
16	Pittsburgh	16	14	17		15	16	17	15		15.7	1.1	20	14
17	Indianapolis	18	18	16		16	17	16	16		16.7	1.0	14	17
18	New England	17	17	15		18	21	18	18		17.7	1.8	18	19
19	Atlanta	15	19	20		19	25	20	19		19.6	2.9	23	24
20	San Francisco	20	22	19		20	18	19	20		19.7	1.3	19	26
21	Chicago	21	20	24		22	19	23	22		21.6	1.7	24	16
22	Denver	25	24	22		24	20	21	21		22.4	1.9	22	22
23	Seattle	26	21	23		23	22	22	23		22.9	1.6	16	21
24	Carolina	24	23	21		21	27	25	24		23.6	2.1	28	27
25	Philadelphia	23	25	25		26	23	26	25		24.7	1.3	25	23
26	NY Giants	22	27	27		25	26	24	27		25.4	1.9	26	20
27	Washington	27	26	26		27	24	27	26		26.1	1.1	21	25
28	Jacksonville	28	29	28		28	28	28	29		28.3	0.5	29	28
29	Miami	30	30	29		29	29	29	28		29.1	0.7	27	31
30	NY Jets	29	28	30		32	31	31	30		30.1	1.3	31	30
31	Detroit	32	32	31		31	30	30	32		31.1	0.9	32	29
32	Houston	31	31	32		30	32	32	31		31.3	0.8	30	32

The ranking of Detroit is just lazy. They are not a bottom 5 team.

[Ray Reed]

 

[Shanedorf]

37 minutes ago, mse326 said:

The ranking of Detroit is just lazy. They are not a bottom 5 team.

Sagarin Ratings says they are bottom 3
http://sagarin.com/sports/nflsend.htm

Vegas Futures says they are tied for bottom 3
https://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/futures/

NFL Standings says they are the worst in the league

https://www.nfl.com/standings/league/2021/REG
 

Football Outsiders has them as 6th worst team

Personally, I think they are better than that -  but there really isn't much to support that notion

[mse326]

1 hour ago, Shanedorf said:

Sagarin Ratings says they are bottom 3
http://sagarin.com/sports/nflsend.htm

Vegas Futures says they are tied for bottom 3
https://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/futures/

NFL Standings says they are the worst in the league

https://www.nfl.com/standings/league/2021/REG
 

Football Outsiders has them as 6th worst team

Personally, I think they are better than that -  but there really isn't much to support that notion

The 3 posts below the one I quoted give some pretty good support for it. As does simply watching them and watching teams like Jax, Hou, NYJ, NYG, Miami. Hell even in their own division they have looked better than Chicago, imo

As to a couple of your links: Vegas futures is for a superbowl win, obviously a team that has less wins will generally be longer odds. NFL standings I mean really. The whole point is just going by wins and losses is lazy. Sagarin I generally like but anyone, including him, using a purely mathematical model recognizes that it is incomplete. There are just too many variables during a game for a result to be reduced to mathematical inputs.