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2 hours ago, DannyB said:

Maybe, but several have put up comparable numbers.

But all the others are stone cold locks as perceived franchise QBs.

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3 hours ago, sammymvpknight said:

But all the others are stone cold locks as perceived franchise QBs.

I mean RG3 was one of the comparable season.

Marcus Mariota was a TD short.

Sam Bradford was close to those numbers.

Mike Glennon needed some more yards and 1 TD.

 

Yes, RG3 mostly had injury issues, but let's not pretend this is a lock. It's just a convenient cutoff.

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RG3, Mariota, and Bradford were all widely regarded as franchise QBs. Glennon was 50 yards off per game (huge difference), and while he was also one TD away from meeting the mark, he was also one INT away from missing the mark.

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25 minutes ago, sammymvpknight said:

RG3, Mariota, and Bradford were all widely regarded as franchise QBs.

When were Mariota or Bradford EVER widely agreed upon as franchise QBs? Hell no.

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1 minute ago, DannyB said:

When were Mariota or Bradford EVER widely agreed upon as franchise QBs? Hell no.

Their rookie season? Absolutely. 

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4 minutes ago, sammymvpknight said:

Their rookie season? Absolutely. 

Maybe they received praise during the season, but there was no preponderance of voices declaring either of them franchise quarterbacks after their rookie seasons (that full single season of data being what we're talking about here).

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On 6/18/2020 at 3:07 PM, Danger said:

He didn't start the whole season, and Rookie seasons for QBs are throwaway years. Technically yes, Goff was bad that year, but for all intents and purposes I discount Rookie QB seasons on principal.

What if you rookie season is your best season and its all downhill from there... asking for a friend.

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Posted (edited)
On 6/15/2020 at 3:19 AM, Hunter2_1 said:

And I remember seeing similar stats a few years ago - the teams that use the most motion are more successful. Wouldn't be surprised if it was a constant observation.

 

Its a huge help for the QB to read zone vs man or other keys on how the D is playing.

It can also isolate an otherwise double covered target.

One example is the Ertz game winning TD in the Super Bowl where the back in motion forced the help away from McCourty.

Edited by SkippyX

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4 hours ago, sammymvpknight said:

Their rookie season? Absolutely. 

There's a difference between a guy being considered a franchise QB because he has played at that level, and a guy being considered a franchise QB purely because of draft position. Bradford and Mariota were clearly the latter.

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15 minutes ago, Jakuvious said:

There's a difference between a guy being considered a franchise QB because he has played at that level, and a guy being considered a franchise QB purely because of draft position. Bradford and Mariota were clearly the latter.

And the guy who outdid both isn’t perceived as a franchise QB. 

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1 hour ago, sammymvpknight said:

And the guy who outdid both isn’t perceived as a franchise QB. 

Yes, outdoing Sam Bradford isn't going to make people see you as a franchise QB. Just because Sam Bradford was drafted 1st overall and was handed the keys to a franchise, does not mean outplaying him counts for anything.

It feels like you're being deliberately difficult here. Some guys get that label just because they're drafted high enough that the team is invested. Like, Burrow is already going to be seen as a franchise QB in that sense, without playing a snap. He has a few years of leading the franchise unless he goes Ryan Leaf/Jamarcus Russell level bad. Some guys get that moniker by playing that well. Russel Wilson earned that kind of investment and trust by exceeding expectations at every opportunity. Minshew is in neither category, yet. He played pretty well. Not spectacularly. He steps up next year he may be seen as such, but he certainly doesn't warrant it yet.

Hypothetical question for you. If Minshew stinks out loud in 2020, do you think the Jags stick with him in 2021? Because I don't, personally. I think they aren't long term committed yet to where they'd put up with a bad year and not start to look around. I think if he underperformed next year, they'd take it as 2019 being the outlier, and try to find another option. A franchise QB, to me, is the guy you're already committed to for longer than that. The Jets have endured two underwhelming seasons from Darnold and stuck with him because he's their franchise's plan right now. They need that to work. No matter what Burrow does on the field this year, he's still going to get 2021 to improve. If Deshaun Watson or Carson Wentz randomly just suck next year, Houston and Philly would absolutely still start them in 2021, because they're committed like that. I don't think Minshew is a guy you're that locked into. If he improves next year, hey, you keep moving along with him. But I don't think that commitment is justified yet, and that's the difference between who people consider a franchise QB, and who they don't.

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1 hour ago, Jakuvious said:

There's a difference between a guy being considered a franchise QB because he has played at that level, and a guy being considered a franchise QB purely because of draft position. Bradford and Mariota were clearly the latter.

Exactly. It's one thing for the reactionaries on TV to declare on draft night that those team found their next franchise QB. It's another thing to look back on their first season starting and say the same thing. The consensus was very much undecided on both Bradford and Mariota.

I realize Minshew isn't getting much love, but he'll have a chance.

And to be fair, those flat numbers in 2019 just don't mean as much as they did 10 or 20 years ago.

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On 6/18/2020 at 9:07 PM, Danger said:

He didn't start the whole season, and Rookie seasons for QBs are throwaway years. Technically yes, Goff was bad that year, but for all intents and purposes I discount Rookie QB seasons on principal.

Totally fair, good point

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22 hours ago, SkippyX said:
On 6/18/2020 at 3:07 PM, Danger said:

He didn't start the whole season, and Rookie seasons for QBs are throwaway years. Technically yes, Goff was bad that year, but for all intents and purposes I discount Rookie QB seasons on principal.

What if you rookie season is your best season and its all downhill from there... asking for a friend.

PFF did a study that showed the lowest correlation to career trajectory was actually the sophomore season. Wonder why Danger ignores that.

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4 minutes ago, Matts4313 said:

PFF did a study that showed the lowest correlation to career trajectory was actually the sophomore season. Wonder why Danger ignores that.

I haven't looked at it even though you linked it. I've seen nothing to actually suggest that to be the case frankly. How many players have done well in their 2nd year and just sucked otherwise? Not many. Compared to rookie seasons QB one hit wonders.

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