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20 hours ago, ChazStandard said:

There's ten straight up drops, 3 more bad balls that would have been miracle plays by a diving DB, and 3 more called back by penalty/ruled down. 10 dropped interceptions is a lot. Why is that a controversial thing to say?

Whether or not the 16 count is accurate, there's no denying that Chiefs have been on the receiving end of a decent amount of luck this year. I don't understand why so many people have an issue with that.

Mahomes has played worse than his numbers indicate this year. It happens. He's been lucky with a lot of dropped picks (including several possible game-losing plays), and his TD numbers are flattered by something like 6 "passes" that were essentially forward hand-offs. That's not saying Mahomes is bad, it's not hating anybody, it's just an opinion based on observation.

10? No way. 8 at the very most. Like it’s been said already context matters. The idea of dropped interceptions is so subjective that it makes the stat somewhat meaningless no matter the source whether it’s FO, PFF, ESPN etc. Also what about for other QBs. Now for instance is it a surprise that Mahomes would have more dropped INTs than Rodgers? Nope because Mahomes is much more aggressive and it’s gonna lead to more risky throws 

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20 hours ago, Jakuvious said:

Because unless you're also counting them as strictly for other QBs in the league and unless you're looking for bad luck as well you can't actually claim this. They said it was 16 with no proof. Then someone added a video it's clearly way less than 16. There's no equivalent tally for other QBs by the people saying it is 16, so counting diving attempts and picks out of bounds, we don't know how many any other QB has had. And there isn't a corresponding count in dropped TDs or TDs called back due to penalty. So the number does not actually give us any information at all, between being inaccurate and lacking context.

There's also not 10 straight drops. You're the only person in the thread so far to say a number higher than like 6 or 7.

Like, if Mahomes has 6 dropped picks, and Rodgers has 4, and Allen has 8, and Brady has 7, has he been lucky, or are we just only looking for this for one guy? If Mahomes has 8 picks dropped or offset by penalty, but also has had 10 TDs dropped or called back by penalty, has he been lucky, or are we just looking at the luck that went in one direction?

This whole thing has been a confirmation biased based witch hunt since week one when there was one nationally televised bad pass that wasn't picked and people who didn't like Mahomes got up in arms about it.

Yes, that's right, everyone is just out to get Mahomes and decided to make up a theory based on no evidence. OR he's just been a bit lucky with dropped picks this season. I know which is more likely, do you?

It happens. There was a season where Benjarvis Green Ellis was once 5th in rushing TDs but 30th in rushing yards, because the Pats WRs kept getting tackled at the 1. The incredibly mediocre Vic Beasley lead the league in sacks based on a statistically very unlikely pressure/sack ratio. Little statistical quirks of fortune happen every season, and this season Mahomes has just been very lucky with dropped INTs, INTs called back by penalty, and the general run of the ball.

 

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5 hours ago, ChazStandard said:

Yes, that's right, everyone is just out to get Mahomes and decided to make up a theory based on no evidence. OR he's just been a bit lucky with dropped picks this season. I know which is more likely, do you?

It happens. There was a season where Benjarvis Green Ellis was once 5th in rushing TDs but 30th in rushing yards, because the Pats WRs kept getting tackled at the 1. The incredibly mediocre Vic Beasley lead the league in sacks based on a statistically very unlikely pressure/sack ratio. Little statistical quirks of fortune happen every season, and this season Mahomes has just been very lucky with dropped INTs, INTs called back by penalty, and the general run of the ball.

 

All you have to do is look at the video to see how bias effects people trying to find evidence. Diving attempts where the ball hit the ground before the DB, passes where defenders were already out of bounds when they caught them, etc. People are seeing what they want to see, and maybe that includes me a little bit as well. But people want to find a reason to believe Mahomes isn't actually that good, the same way they did with years for Brady. Dropped INTs is the current equivalent of Brady being a system QB. It's a delusion.

And I've posted a source he multiple times that actually tracks interceptable passes for everyone, that has 26 players with more than Mahomes. No one cared about that. They care about the random dude on twitter that claimed he has 16 dropped picks, with no context of how many anyone else has, and the most biased interpretation ever of what a dropped pick is. Because that's what people want to believe.

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On 12/28/2020 at 2:24 PM, SkippyX said:

Trubisky's Strength of Schedule in his starts this year is 30-75 (.286)

  • Det x2, NYG, Atl, Min, Hou, Jax
  • No playoff hunt teams

Foles SoS was 73-47 (.608)

  • Ind, Tampa, Car, Rams, NO, Ten, Min, GB
  • 6 playoff hunt teams

 

Trubisky's SoS this week is 12-3 (.800)

FYI, The scoring defenses Trubisky has faced are ranked

  • 32, 32, 31, 28, 26, 19, 11
    • He was benched against the 19th D

 

Don't hold your breath for a big Trubisky game this week and a deep playoff run.

Oh believe me sir, I'm not. I was rooting to lose out and clean house. Lol

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14 minutes ago, Forge said:

The Texans have run 6 screens this year. Six. 

I feel like you should run more than that in a season if only to keep a defense honest. 

Just an eye test opinion, but I feel like the Texans run the ‘drop back and see what Watson can do when the play breaks down’ play on the majority of their snaps. So this screens stat isn’t surprising.

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17 minutes ago, Forge said:

The Texans have run 6 screens this year. Six. 

I feel like you should run more than that in a season if only to keep a defense honest. 

This is why Tim Kelly isn't going to have a job in football anytime soon...

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24 minutes ago, ET80 said:

@Trentwannabe - curious, why did Buffalo let him get away? I think he was drafted by Buffalo, right?

 

No Browns fan saw this coming either. We had hoped he could be a starter that we would eventually upgrade.

 

He has been our pound for pound best player.

Edited by candyman93
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23 minutes ago, Forge said:

The Texans have run 6 screens this year. Six. 

I feel like you should run more than that in a season if only to keep a defense honest. 

You should, but one small caveat to consider.
The best time to call a screen is when the D has their ears pinned back, rushing the passer full speed.
But a lot of DCs play Watson differently, imploring their rushers to stay in their lanes and under control to hem him in. Is it possible that screen-inducing defenses were fewer than normal vs Deshaun ?  You'd still expect to see more than 6.

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4 minutes ago, Shanedorf said:

You should, but one small caveat to consider.
The best time to call a screen is when the D has their ears pinned back, rushing the passer full speed.
But a lot of DCs play Watson differently, imploring their rushers to stay in their lanes and under control to hem him in. Is it possible that screen-inducing defenses were fewer than normal vs Deshaun ?  You'd still expect to see more than 6.

Chicken and egg though...if you know that they are just going to drop back traditionally, you can justify sending the house more often. I don't know what his rate is this year, but last year he was blitzed at a top 10 rate in the league. 

*edit* 

Take that back...the data I had was a little old...looks like he slipped out ot the top 10 and was 11/12 on a per game basis. This year he is middle of the pack according to football reference (yay, didn't know they had that stuff lol) 

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