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Which team will win their first Super Bowl next?


$andtrap

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31 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said:

I like Kyler a lot. I was big on him coming out, and he does have better arm talent than Deshaun. But equating arm talent with quarterbacking success isn’t smart. There are plenty of talented arms that didn’t amount to anything in this league.

 

Fair, his father is a huge football qb coach across the country and his uncle was a major leaguer. He will without a doubt get even better

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10 hours ago, $andtrap said:

Which one will be the next off the list? Here is the list:

Buffalo - They look set up very well to contend. Great coaching. It depends on whether Allen can take the next step.

Cincinnati - Too far away from real contention anytime soon. 

Cleveland - On paper they’re talented but I just can’t trust that organization under current ownership. 

Houston - Not with BOB. 

Jacksonville - Too far away from real contention anytime soon. 

Tennessee - I don’t think they have the defense, and I wonder about Tannehill long-term. Under Vrabel, though, it’s possible. 

Los Angeles Chargers - Depends on the QB situation.

Detroit - Nah, not with Patricia.

Minnesota - Sure, they could do it.

Atlanta - As ever, I have doubts about their defense. 

Carolina - Too far away right now; Rhule’s plan is long-term though. 

Arizona - Sure, they look to be on the up.

 

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This year is crap or get off the pot for Baker Mayfield.

This is a pretty important year from a progression standpoint for Josh Allen. Can he improve his accuracy and stop fumbling?

Cincinnati, Arizona, Detroit, and Jacksonville look on paper to be a long way's off.

Carolina is trying to shore up that defense but I don't personally see a "Franchise QB" in that situation.

The Chargers are always an enigma/intriguing.

The Texans have the best QB, and that always makes them dangerous...but you have the BOB factor.

The Titans have the right coaching staff IMO and the best overall roster of the bunch...but the QB is a major question mark.

Minnesota definitely has the pieces and Cousins is in the "above average to good" tier.

So, give me Minnesota, Tennessee, or Buffalo, with maybe Cleveland if Baker looks like 2018 Baker or better.

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these teams would not shock me if they won it all within 2 yrs:

Cle( the young core is there)

titans(they were a game away last yr, not sure if tanny can be the answer at QB yearly tho, but I like the foundation being built there)

Texans( having a top 3-5ish QB who's getting better should always keep them in the run even with BOB)

Vikings( a team that's ready to win now, can do it if they get hot in the postseason)

ATL(although they've been down recently, I can see them being one of those teams that has a great yr no one expects and ends up with a high seed to set them up for a SB run)

Bills(one of the better rosters in the NFL, and if Allen takes another step up they can be a real force)

need to see more from Ari. Cin, Car and the Jags could be setting themselves up to be in a good spot, but that might be a few yrs away. LAC and Det always seem to be stuck in the mud.

 

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1 hour ago, MWil23 said:

Minnesota definitely has the pieces and Cousins is in the "above average to good" tier.

When I want to predict the coming year, one thing I like to look at is how a team did vs Top Competition the previous season
Its often illuminating. In the case of the vikings, their performance vs Top 10 teams was 1-5. Their performance vs Top 16 teams was 4-7

http://sagarin.com/sports/nflsend.htm

You can do the same thing for Tennessee, ATL, Hou and any others on the list.
Things certainly change from year to year, but you can get some insight into up and coming teams.

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2 minutes ago, Shanedorf said:

When I want to predict the coming year, one thing I like to look at is how a team did vs Top Competition the previous season
Its often illuminating. In the case of the vikings, their performance vs Top 10 teams was 1-5. Their performance vs Top 16 teams was 4-7

http://sagarin.com/sports/nflsend.htm

You can do the same thing for Tennessee, ATL, Hou and any others on the list.
Things certainly change from year to year, but you can get some insight into up and coming teams.

Which is a fair way of looking at it as well, but I'd like to see the split on things like home/away and games decided by under 7 points, because those things can swing in a hurry. 

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3 hours ago, notthatbluestuff said:

Tennessee - I don’t think they have the defense, and I wonder about Tannehill long-term. Under Vrabel, though, it’s possible. 

Don't have the defense?  What Tennessee team are you talking about?  The Titans have one of the league's best defenses.  The only weak spot last season was Edge, and they've already added Vic Beasley and might add Clowney.

The question mark there is QB.  If Tannehill regresses drastically, they'll have problems long term.

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17 minutes ago, Daniel said:

Don't have the defense?  What Tennessee team are you talking about?  The Titans have one of the league's best defenses.

Needless to say, I don't agree. They played well down the stretch last season and had a great playoff run but I'm not convinced they'll maintain that form going forward with their personnel. Casey was their best defensive player and is gone now. Vic Beasley doesn't come close to filling that void. They don't have much on the edge of the line, in fact they still need help along the entire front. Their cornerbacks are scarce. We'll see if Fulton can impress, but there are no guarantees. In terms of total defense, they were middle of the pack last season, so I'm not sure why you consider them one of the league's best. I guess we'll see. 

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50 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

Which is a fair way of looking at it as well, but I'd like to see the split on things like home/away and games decided by under 7 points, because those things can swing in a hurry. 

@Shanedorf what I'm saying is that the Vikings were also 6-2 at home and 4-4 on the road. They lost to the Chiefs on the road by 3, and the Packers and Bears twice each, as well as to the Seahawks on the road. Obviously, losing 4 games in division play isn't good, but those are tough games, and losing to the Seahawks/Chiefs aren't bad losses. 

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51 minutes ago, notthatbluestuff said:

Needless to say, I don't agree. They played well down the stretch last season and had a great playoff run but I'm not convinced they'll maintain that form going forward with their personnel. Casey was their best defensive player and is gone now. Vic Beasley doesn't come close to filling that void. They don't have much on the edge of the line, in fact they still need help along the entire front. Their cornerbacks are scarce. We'll see if Fulton can impress, but there are no guarantees. In terms of total defense, they were middle of the pack last season, so I'm not sure why you consider them one of the league's best. I guess we'll see. 

Casey used to be our best defensive player.  He wasn't in the top 10 last season.  Jeffery Simmons was a beast in limited playing time as a rookie, which is why they felt comfortable trading Casey away for peanuts.  He's Casey's replacement

Yeah, I know.  It's the one weakness.  But they're adding back injured rookie D'Andre Walker, adding a 8-9 sack guy into the rotation.  They don't have an elite edge group, but it's already drastically improved from last season, and I still expect them to add Clowney.

Cornerback is possibly their deepest position.  Malcolm Butler, Adoree Jackson, and now Kristian Fulton is an excellent group.

Total defense is a bad stat, especially with a team that was as injured as Tennessee was last season.  They were great down the stretch because they're a stacked defense that can run the ball once they got healthy.  They're pretty much the only defense last season that stopped Lamar Jackson, and they were able to limit Patrick Mahomes too (the first time they played him).  I don't know what more argument I need.

 

EDIT: His name is Jeffery, not Justin.  Revoke my fan card now.

Edited by Daniel
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