Jump to content

Browns General Discussion


candyman93

Recommended Posts

Thoughts from a guy we know who does some breakdowns...

This growing hate for Denzel Ward is absolutely insane. He hasn't suffered any major injury and I believe this year especially he was held out longer than he needed to be out because of the long term goals of the team. I believe he would have missed 1 game for his calf if the team felt they needed him the next week or if it were a playoff game. Then missing for Covid should not be held against any player. Ward has played 4 more games than Howard, same number of games as Chris Harris. Played 1 less game than Marlon Humphry, and 5 less games than Patrick Peterson and Jaire Alexander all in the last 3 seasons essensially 1 game per season. There are 11 CBs in the NFL that separate themselves from the rest of them and only 3 of those guys have missed less than 5 games the last 3 seasons(Peters,White and Jones) neither playing all 48 games.
 
**I thought about Marshon Lattimore but he would have ranked 11th or 12th in every category except Targets Per Game and Pass Defense Rate where he would have placed 7th. He is not elite in any single area other than over the top agressive hand shakes.**
 
Targets Per Game
1. Byron Jones 4.82 
2. Chris Harris 4.92
3. Patrick Peterson 5.05
4. Tre'Davious White 5.07
5. Marcus Peters 5.50
6. Stephon Gilmore 5.69
7. Xavien Howard 5.75
8. Jalen Ramsey 5.86
9. Jaire Alexander 6.69
10. Denzel Ward 6.86
11. Marlon Humphrey 7.45
 
Completions Per Game
1. Byron Jones 2.67
2. TreDavious White 2.72
3. Stephon Gilmore 2.91
4. Xavien Howard 3.10
5. Chris Harris 3.17
6. Patrick Peterson 3.24
7. Jalen Ramsey 3.30
8. Marcus Peters 3.37
9. Denzel Ward 3.51
10. Jaire Alexander 3.79
11. Marlon Humphrey 4.16
 
Well he is only 9th and 10th in Targets and Completions per game. QB's aren't as worried about him as the other guys and he gives up more completeion, right? Okay well where do those completeions go? He ranks 3rd in yards per game. So he is giving up far less on far more targets than the other guys. You can give up 3 catches in a single series of downs but if they all only go for 3 yards the offense is no punting.
 
Yards Per Game
1. Stephon Gilmore 31.24
2. TreDavious White 33.45
3. Denzel Ward 35.28
4. Byron Jones 39.03
5. Patrick Peterson 40.48
6. Jalen Ramsey 40.91
7. Marlon Humphrey 41.11
8. Chris Harris 41.46
9. Xavien Howard 42.10
10. Marcus Peters 42.53
11. Jaire Alexander 47.96
 
TD/TO Differenial
1. Tre'Davious White +8
2. Xavien Howard +7
3. Marlon Humphrey +7
4. Stephon Gilmore +6
5. Jalen Ramsey +2
6. Marcus Peterson +2
7. Denzel Ward -1
8. Jaire Alexander -4
9. Patrick Peterson -5
10. Chris Harris -5
11. Byron Jones -6
 
Middle of the pack here in TD/TO differential which surprised me but at the same time didn't. I was expecting higher but then I came to recall Ward doesn't have a high volume of INTs but when he gets INTs it is always in a big moment. I wish there were a way I could study out 3rd down, game winning drives, redzone ect. I believe Ward shows up biggest in the biggest moments and I believe he is the #1 CB in NFL in that category.
 
Ward is only 9th in completions per game but we already seen those completions are going nowhere. Also, of those per game completions his 51.11% completion against is still #2 to only Stephon Gilmore 51.02 both being a full 2 points higher than the next closest CB. Below is the rate at which the CB is actually asked to make a play on a throw. A CB could have a very low completion % against him, but who is really making the play? Is it the CB or is it awful QB play and errant passes? 
 
Pass Defense Rate
1. Xavien Howard 36 on 190 .189
2. Stephon Gilmore 43 on 245 .175
3. Denzel Ward 40 on 254 .158 3rd highest win rate for the elite CBs in the game. QB's aren't missing he is defending
4. Tre'Davious White 36 on 228 .157
5. Jaire Alexander 41 on 281 .146
6. Marlon Humprey 40 on 283 .141
7. Marcus Peters 31 on 253 .122
8. Byron Jones 24 on 217 .110
9. Jalen Ramsey 27 on 252 .107
10. Chris Harris 18 on 182 .099
11. Patrick Peterson 20 on 212 .095
 
Furthermore, Denzel Ward is the ONLY corner in the NFL to not let up a single 80 yard game in the last 3 seasons.
 
Jalen Ramsey 43 Games 252 Targets 142 Completions 1759 Yards 6   TDs 10 MTck 27 PD  5 INT 3 FF
Stephon Gilmore 43 Games 245 Targets 125 Completions 51.02% 1343 Yards 6   TDs 14 Mtck  43 PD 9 INT 3 FF
Xavien Howard 33 Games 190 Targets 102 Completions 53.7%  1389  Yards 12 TDs 15 Mtck 36 PD 18 INT 1 FF
Chris Harris 37 Games  182 Targets 117 Completions 64.28% 1534 Yards 11 TDs 11 Mtck 18 PD 5 INT 1 FF
Patrick Peterson 42 Games  212 Targets 136 Completions 64.15%  1700 Yards 13 TDs 17 Mtck 20 PD 7 INT 1 FF
Marcus Peters 46 Games 253 Targets 155 Completions 61.2%    1956 Yards 14 TDs 29 Mtck 31 PD 12 INT 4 FF
Byron Jones 45 Games 217 Targets 120 Completions 55.3%    1756 Yards 10 TDs 14 Mtck 24 PD 2 INT 2 FF
Marlon Humphrey 38 Games 283 Targets 158 Completions 55.8%     1562 Yards 10 TDs 33 Mtck 40 PD 6 INT 11 FF
Tre'Davious White 45 Games 228 Targets 122 Completions 53.5%      1505 Yards 6 TDs 23 Mtck 36 PD 11 INT 3 FF
Jaire Alexander 42 Games 281 Targets 159 Completions 56.6%       2014 Yards 10 TDs 21 Mtck 41 PD 4 INT 2 FF
Denzel Ward; 37 Games 254 Targets 130 Completions 51.18%     1305 Yards 10 TDs 27 Mtck 40 PD 7 INT 2 FF
 
 
Browns fans drive me crazy sometimes. They seem to think we need 22 pro bowl starters or we will always suck. Every player should play every single snap like Joe Thomas, sorry but we were spoiled. Elite players on other teams miss games plenty. We just don't notice it as much 
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

^^^

Nice post.  I wasn't aware of too many people bad-mouthing Ward, but I'm sure they're out there.

Honestly, he's the one good CB we have. Mitchell tries hard, but he's really not very good.  Not only has Greedy been down with injury, but he was pretty bad when he played.

CB is still a big need for us.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

Thoughts from a guy we know who does some breakdowns...

This growing hate for Denzel Ward is absolutely insane. He hasn't suffered any major injury and I believe this year especially he was held out longer than he needed to be out because of the long term goals of the team. I believe he would have missed 1 game for his calf if the team felt they needed him the next week or if it were a playoff game. Then missing for Covid should not be held against any player. Ward has played 4 more games than Howard, same number of games as Chris Harris. Played 1 less game than Marlon Humphry, and 5 less games than Patrick Peterson and Jaire Alexander all in the last 3 seasons essensially 1 game per season. There are 11 CBs in the NFL that separate themselves from the rest of them and only 3 of those guys have missed less than 5 games the last 3 seasons(Peters,White and Jones) neither playing all 48 games.
 
**I thought about Marshon Lattimore but he would have ranked 11th or 12th in every category except Targets Per Game and Pass Defense Rate where he would have placed 7th. He is not elite in any single area other than over the top agressive hand shakes.**
 
Targets Per Game
1. Byron Jones 4.82 
2. Chris Harris 4.92
3. Patrick Peterson 5.05
4. Tre'Davious White 5.07
5. Marcus Peters 5.50
6. Stephon Gilmore 5.69
7. Xavien Howard 5.75
8. Jalen Ramsey 5.86
9. Jaire Alexander 6.69
10. Denzel Ward 6.86
11. Marlon Humphrey 7.45
 
Completions Per Game
1. Byron Jones 2.67
2. TreDavious White 2.72
3. Stephon Gilmore 2.91
4. Xavien Howard 3.10
5. Chris Harris 3.17
6. Patrick Peterson 3.24
7. Jalen Ramsey 3.30
8. Marcus Peters 3.37
9. Denzel Ward 3.51
10. Jaire Alexander 3.79
11. Marlon Humphrey 4.16
 
Well he is only 9th and 10th in Targets and Completions per game. QB's aren't as worried about him as the other guys and he gives up more completeion, right? Okay well where do those completeions go? He ranks 3rd in yards per game. So he is giving up far less on far more targets than the other guys. You can give up 3 catches in a single series of downs but if they all only go for 3 yards the offense is no punting.
 
Yards Per Game
1. Stephon Gilmore 31.24
2. TreDavious White 33.45
3. Denzel Ward 35.28
4. Byron Jones 39.03
5. Patrick Peterson 40.48
6. Jalen Ramsey 40.91
7. Marlon Humphrey 41.11
8. Chris Harris 41.46
9. Xavien Howard 42.10
10. Marcus Peters 42.53
11. Jaire Alexander 47.96
 
TD/TO Differenial
1. Tre'Davious White +8
2. Xavien Howard +7
3. Marlon Humphrey +7
4. Stephon Gilmore +6
5. Jalen Ramsey +2
6. Marcus Peterson +2
7. Denzel Ward -1
8. Jaire Alexander -4
9. Patrick Peterson -5
10. Chris Harris -5
11. Byron Jones -6
 
Middle of the pack here in TD/TO differential which surprised me but at the same time didn't. I was expecting higher but then I came to recall Ward doesn't have a high volume of INTs but when he gets INTs it is always in a big moment. I wish there were a way I could study out 3rd down, game winning drives, redzone ect. I believe Ward shows up biggest in the biggest moments and I believe he is the #1 CB in NFL in that category.
 
Ward is only 9th in completions per game but we already seen those completions are going nowhere. Also, of those per game completions his 51.11% completion against is still #2 to only Stephon Gilmore 51.02 both being a full 2 points higher than the next closest CB. Below is the rate at which the CB is actually asked to make a play on a throw. A CB could have a very low completion % against him, but who is really making the play? Is it the CB or is it awful QB play and errant passes? 
 
Pass Defense Rate
1. Xavien Howard 36 on 190 .189
2. Stephon Gilmore 43 on 245 .175
3. Denzel Ward 40 on 254 .158 3rd highest win rate for the elite CBs in the game. QB's aren't missing he is defending
4. Tre'Davious White 36 on 228 .157
5. Jaire Alexander 41 on 281 .146
6. Marlon Humprey 40 on 283 .141
7. Marcus Peters 31 on 253 .122
8. Byron Jones 24 on 217 .110
9. Jalen Ramsey 27 on 252 .107
10. Chris Harris 18 on 182 .099
11. Patrick Peterson 20 on 212 .095
 
Furthermore, Denzel Ward is the ONLY corner in the NFL to not let up a single 80 yard game in the last 3 seasons.
 
Jalen Ramsey 43 Games 252 Targets 142 Completions 1759 Yards 6   TDs 10 MTck 27 PD  5 INT 3 FF
Stephon Gilmore 43 Games 245 Targets 125 Completions 51.02% 1343 Yards 6   TDs 14 Mtck  43 PD 9 INT 3 FF
Xavien Howard 33 Games 190 Targets 102 Completions 53.7%  1389  Yards 12 TDs 15 Mtck 36 PD 18 INT 1 FF
Chris Harris 37 Games  182 Targets 117 Completions 64.28% 1534 Yards 11 TDs 11 Mtck 18 PD 5 INT 1 FF
Patrick Peterson 42 Games  212 Targets 136 Completions 64.15%  1700 Yards 13 TDs 17 Mtck 20 PD 7 INT 1 FF
Marcus Peters 46 Games 253 Targets 155 Completions 61.2%    1956 Yards 14 TDs 29 Mtck 31 PD 12 INT 4 FF
Byron Jones 45 Games 217 Targets 120 Completions 55.3%    1756 Yards 10 TDs 14 Mtck 24 PD 2 INT 2 FF
Marlon Humphrey 38 Games 283 Targets 158 Completions 55.8%     1562 Yards 10 TDs 33 Mtck 40 PD 6 INT 11 FF
Tre'Davious White 45 Games 228 Targets 122 Completions 53.5%      1505 Yards 6 TDs 23 Mtck 36 PD 11 INT 3 FF
Jaire Alexander 42 Games 281 Targets 159 Completions 56.6%       2014 Yards 10 TDs 21 Mtck 41 PD 4 INT 2 FF
Denzel Ward; 37 Games 254 Targets 130 Completions 51.18%     1305 Yards 10 TDs 27 Mtck 40 PD 7 INT 2 FF
 
 
Browns fans drive me crazy sometimes. They seem to think we need 22 pro bowl starters or we will always suck. Every player should play every single snap like Joe Thomas, sorry but we were spoiled. Elite players on other teams miss games plenty. We just don't notice it as much 

This would only hold weight if you needed one CB. No one is expecting pro bowlers on every level. Our secondary (outside of Denzel) was abused on a weekly basis. Even if Greedy recovers we need two starting quality CBs.

Lattimore for a third would be a no-brainer. Signing a vet in F/A could fill in the fourth.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

53 minutes ago, Don Roshi said:

This would only hold weight if you needed one CB. No one is expecting pro bowlers on every level. Our secondary (outside of Denzel) was abused on a weekly basis. Even if Greedy recovers we need two starting quality CBs.

Lattimore for a third would be a no-brainer. Signing a vet in F/A could fill in the fourth.

Agree completely.

Which raises an interesting question; namely: Should we fill this hole through the draft, FA or trade?

I like your solution for CB, although the FA I would sign is Mitchell.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, bruceb said:

Agree completely.

Which raises an interesting question; namely: Should we fill this hole through the draft, FA or trade?

I like your solution for CB, although the FA I would sign is Mitchell.

Yes.

Ward/Lattimore/Williams/FA/Mitchell/Draft. This would cost us a bit of cap space, a third and a late rounder.

If we don't resign Lattimore, then the following year we'll still have Ward/Williams/Draft pick to start with at least. That and a future comp pick for losing Lattimore.

So we still have plenty of draft capital to find a way of covering TEs and finding a deep threat.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Don Roshi said:

This would only hold weight if you needed one CB. No one is expecting pro bowlers on every level. Our secondary (outside of Denzel) was abused on a weekly basis. Even if Greedy recovers we need two starting quality CBs.

Lattimore for a third would be a no-brainer. Signing a vet in F/A could fill in the fourth.

I think it'll cost a lot more to get Lattimore, imo. I'd say a 2nd at the absolute minimum. He's only 24 and is a high quality starter. He'll command a high price in a bidding war. Jalen Ramsey went for two 1sts. Would you trade your 1st for him? I would, if we can sign him without wrecking our cap future.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 hours ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

Every player should play every single snap like Joe Thomas, sorry but we were spoiled.

I still hate that this mindset tho, cost us long term joe Thomas. He probably played through injuries that made things worst. I bet you if he would had sat out a game or two to take care of an injury when needed. He probably would still be our starting LT. Dude beat the crap out of his body for what, to win 4-5games a year. He was such a technician that probably could have carried him to a king career like Whitworth

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.




×
×
  • Create New...