2021 MLB Draft Thread(Prospect Top 10s)

[devils1854]

1 hour ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

Leiter gonna be 1?

We will see. He is going to be the analytical darling in the draft as you can tell from that tweet. He's 6', 6'1. Not that big. He's compared to Sony Gray, and just look at him. Its an apt comparison physically. More old school teams are going to probably prefer Rocker because he checks every single box. He would be the next Roger Clemens in 1991.

I said Pittsburgh would draft Jud Fabian at #1 a few weeks ago. Cherrington helped to build Boston with mostly hitting through the draft, and had that organization flushed with minor league talent. Both analytics and old school are going to love Fabian. If he has the junior year many think he has, I think he has as good a shot as any to go #1. 

[devils1854]

Here is my favorite prospect at the moment. If he does in 2021, what he did in 11 innings in 2020, he's my #1. The size. The analytics. The passion. It all points upward. 

 

 

[devils1854]

Benny Montgomery, CF, Red Land PA

He might be my guy this year following PCA last year and Hankins in 19. Dont focus on the swing yet. If you want old school. His 60 and home to first times are elite. His arm is elite. He shows power and a good hitting profile against good pitching. Analytics? There might not be another player in the draft with his consistently high exit velos. Launch angle is optimal. He's excellent at everything.....and he will play center field.

Now the swing is going to scare a lot of people away. The good news is apparently its looking a little better this summer. Less of a lunge to hit the ball. The more conservative, college leaning, teams are going to probably push him way down the board. Right now I could see a team like Boston taking him somewhere between 5-8. They obviously have a model. They shocked everyone with it in the 2020 draft. If he fits? He could go............Virginia commit. Something to watch.

 

Edited August 9, 2020 by devils1854

[devils1854]

MOCK DRAFT 1.0

We have 20 teams in MLB that have reached the 20 game mark and most of the summer season is complete, so its time for a mock. First, the draft order is from before action today and is done by winning percentage, not games back. Playoffs will be determined by winning percentage since played games will be different from team to team, and I assume thats how they will line up the draft. Second, the CBA round is my projections based on past years. I wanted to showcase more than 30 players but two full rounds is more than I can do at the moment. All/Most high school prospects are starting to be known and after the summer, I can somewhat put a order together. College is still murky with the shortened season and no major summer ball. I still have a lot of prospects to look at, and Im learning new names weekly.

My next project is college based. I want to highlight the 10 or so pitchers that flashed during the 2020 season, but dont have a resume at this point. After that, I want to get a list together of college guys to watch on major college teams. It will give a good look at what teams to watch in 2021 and who will be loaded for college baseball fans.....hint: SEC/Louisville/UCLA and a few sleeper teams.

The second name under the pick the other player I considered for the pick.

 

1.Pittsburgh-Jud Fabian||CF||Florida
-------Kumar Rocker
Jud Fabian is my number one player for the 2021 MLB Draft. He is an explosive athlete, and I cant get past how quick his hands are and that bat speed. I dont think the Pirates are going to see Leiter as true option at the moment. I dont think the org is quite there analytically, so it comes down to Fabian and Rocker. Im going with a potential MVP type player in center.

2.Boston-Kumar Rocker||RHP||Vanderbilt
-------Jack Leiter
Kumar Rocker is a star already in college baseball. Thats unheard of. Should that factor in who you choose at #2? Probably not, but I think it does. Rocker is a #1 type talent anyway, so I think the decision is an easy one.

3.Seattle-Jack Leiter||RHP||Vanderbilt
-------Alex Binelas
Could this be Jaden Hill in a year? Absolutely, I love that kid, but Leiter is in that top tier of players at the moment. He doesnt fit the mold of what the Mariners have taken recently, but I dont think that matters here. Its like the Royals taking Witt Jr. It might not be your organizational philosophy to take this type of guy, but he is too good to pass up. You select Leiter.

4.LA Angels-Matt McLain||SS||UCLA
-------Benny Montgomery
Reid Detmers was an appropriate pick in 2020 and they gave him slot. Will Wilson was given slot in 2019 and was an adequate pick in the first. Artie Moreno is giving money to draftees. He might trade them later, but he is at least picking talent. Matt McLain is a SoCal boy. Taken in the first in 2018 by Arizona. He decided to go to UCLA. Its worked. He might not be a SS at the next level, but he will get the chance, and he should be able to play center. Small, but exit velos are elite for any player at this level.

5.San Francisco-Jaden Hill||RHP||LSU
-------Alex Binelas
The Giants havent taken a pitcher in the first round since Phil Bickford in 2015. They need impact pitchers in the org, and Jaden Hill is the BPA here and has the talent to be a true #1. He just needs the innings in college. You cannot pass hill up here.

6.Washington-Jordan Lawlar||SS||Jesuit Prep, TX
-------Andrew Painter
Carter Kieboom in 2016 was the last time the Nationals took a position player in the first. They arent usually drafting this high, and a pitcher here does not work unless you want to reach for Andrew Painter. Lawlar is the best all around SS at the high school level in the 2021 draft at the moment. I think the Nats will value the SS over a 3B in House or a non fit in Montgomery.

7.NY Mets-Brady House||3B/RHP||Winder Barrow, GA
-------Braylon Bishop
The Mets have been going high school hitter for a while now, and at #7, they are positioned to get one of the two best. Benny Montgomery is my top high schooler, but House has top three talent. He has been a little average this summer according to reports, but the tools are elite, and the past production is there. He could also be a first round pitching prospect if the hitting didnt work out.

8.Kansas City-Adrian Del Castillo||C||Miami
-------Gunnar Hoglund
Kansas City goes college. Bobby Witt was a outlier in 2019. Their first two picks in 2020 were from the college level. After taking Witt #2 overall in 2019, they didnt take another HS player until the 16th round, and in 2018, their first 11 picks were from the college level. Del Castillo is the top college player here, and the Royals will be needing to find a future catcher soon.

9.Toronto-Andrew Painter||RHP||Calvary Christian, FL
-------Izzac Pacheco
The big 6'7 righty has been flying up draft board this summer. He has the spin rates that some org's covet and he has the old school numbers that others want in a player. Toronto's top two picks in 2019 were 6'6 pitchers and their first pitcher in 2018(Adam Kloffenstein) comes in at 6'5, and their top prospect is 6'6. They love big right handed pitchers.

10.Philadelphia-Benny Montgomery||RF||Red Land, PA
-------Gunnar Hoglund
This is where a team takes a chance on the quirky Benny Montgomery. He is a analytical wet dream. It could be four plus tools in right field as long as you are ok with the swing or at least have a plan for the swing. Dont let Moniak scare you away. This kid has top 5 talent.

11.Cincinnati-Izaac Pacheco||3B||Friendswood, TX
-------Marcelo Mayer
I dont know if its coincidence or a pattern, but the Reds have tklen college pitchers and high school hitters early the past two years. It was completely flipped in 2018, so Im not sure, but I do think a high school hitter is the play here. Pacheco plays short currently, but he is going to grow to third, and he could grow into monster power, along with maybe a plus hit tool.

12.Milwaukee-Alex Binelas||3B||Louisville
-------Marcelo Mayer
Before the college season, Binelas was being hyped as a top 5 player. He spent the shortened season injured, and has slipped a little. He had a monster freshman season at Louisville. He has the tools to be an elite all around hitter. Defensively, he might not be a 3B too long, but he will get a shot at the position. He just needs to come back strong in 2021.

13.Arizona-Braylon Bishop||CF||Texarkana, AR
-------Marcelo Mayer
Arizona really has been focusing on high school players recently, and have had good results in taking athletic CF'ers(Carroll/Thomas). Bishop is more tools than production at the moment, but they are very loud tools in center field. Someone will probably take a chance on him in the top 15.

14.Chi Sox-Gunnar Hoglund||RHP||Ole Miss
-------Hunter Goodman
The White Sox broke the pattern and took a college pitcher in the first round last year. I think they repeat that in 2021. Hoglund is right around BPA here, and there really arent any college hitters that deserve to go here, and Im not willing to project a high schooler going in the first round right now.

15.San Diego-Marcelo Mayer||SS||Eastlake, CA
-------Christian Little
San Diego takes BPA and high schoolers. Marcelo Mayer has not played in tournaments this summer so we really dont know what we have. He looks to be a speed and defense guy at the moment, but there could be some power in there once he matures. Mayer is a guy that could rise quickly once he plays in top events in the coming months.

16.Houston-Chase Petty||RHP||Mainland, NJ
-------Hunter Goodman
Chase Petty is a perfect fit for the Astros. Spin rates are through the roof, and he hits 100 in games. He's raw, and probably only 6'1, but its easy gas. I could see him rising to be the top high school pitcher with more good production against top competition.

17.Detroit-Jonathan Cannon||RHP||Georgia
-------Steve Hajjar
Detroit solely focuses on hitters in the 2020 draft and didnt take a pitcher until the 7th round in 2019. Its time for them to grab a pitcher. They love the SEC, so Jonathan Cannon gets the call here. He will be sophomore eligible, and only has about 12 innings to his name in college, so this is a projection like many other college players at the moment.

18.Texas-Christian Little||RHP||Christian Brothers, MO
-------Christian Franklin
College hitters have been the picks in the first round the past two drafts, but they still love tools and high schoolers, and the organization has not shyd away from taking high school arms early. Christian Little is the third high school pitcher off the board mainly because he does not touch 100, but he is the more polished guy with a couple of off speed pitches with potential, and it does look like he has some projection in his body.

19.Atlanta-Ethan Wilson||LF||South Alabama
-------Ty Madden
The Braves have demonstrated under Alex Anthopoulos that signability and savings are what he is looking for early in the past two drafts. I could see him going either with the small school Ethan Wilson, who struggled a lot this year at South Alabama, but had a huge freshman year, or Ty Madden. The starter from Texas that flashed upper 90s in the short year for the Longhorns. I went Wilson because I hate Madden.

20.Cleveland-Ian Moller||C||Walhert, IA
-------Michael Braswell
Blake Swihart and Reese McGuire are the most successful high school catchers drafted in the first round in the 2010s decade. The position is volatile and players drop. Moller is an athletic guy, so he should be able to stick at the position, but his bat is the reason he has a chance to go top 20. He has been one of the more impressive players on the circuit this summer, overshadowing bigger named players on the same team. Cleveland has preferred high schoolers over the past few years, and actually took a catcher in the first in 2018.

21.Tampa Bay-Michael Braswell||SS||Campbell, GA
-------Chase Burns
I dont see the Rays reach for players early in the draft. They also love all pitchers, especially falling pitchers, and middle of the diamond guys. I dont have any pitchers falling to 22, and its too early for my next rated pitcher, so SS Michael Braswell is the pick. He shows everything you need to believe he will stay at short for the long term, and the bat is projectable.

22.St Louis-James Wood||RF||Olney, MD
-------Ty Madden
I did not know the name James Wood a month ago. He has come out of nowhere(literally MD) to be maybe the most impressive hitter so far this summer. The kid is 6'6 230 and looks like a basketball player. As a baseball player, it seems like he has just now figured it out. I dont know exactly where this kid will end up, but the power is plus plus, speed is plus, and the arm is a plus.

23.Colorado-Hunter Goodman||C||Memphis
-------Christian Franklin
If Goodman had more of a position, he could be a top ten guy. He might be able to catch with robot umps, otherwise its either 1st or left for him. The power is a easy plus, and even though there are some swing and miss concerns, he could become a good hitter. He has shown the tools at Memphis.

24.Baltimore-Christian Franklin||CF||Arkansas
-------Chase Burns
The Orioles took the Arkansas RF Kjerstad in the first in 2020, so why not take his teammate and fellow outfielder, Christian Franklin, in the first? Franklin broke out over the short 2020 season. He really showed some pop for the first time, and its the reason he is a potential first rounder in 2021. He has a good feel for hitting and should stick in center, so if the power is real, he could make a team very happy.

25.Minnesota-Alex Mooney||SS||Orchard Lake St Mary's Prep, MI
-------Robby Martin
Mooney is a northern kid that has been on radars, but his good play this summer has started to move him up draft boards. He is a hit first shortstop that could have plus power at the position. I also think he can grow and move out of the position, but the bat would also profile at third.

26.Miami-Steve Hajjar||LHP||Michigan
-------Sal Frelick
Hajjar has pitched 20 total innings in his Michigan career. He struck out 7 and gave up no runs in 6 innings in his first career action against a Spencer Torkelson led Arizona State team. He was sitting around 94-95 from the left side this spring with the workings of a couple offspeed pitches.

27.LA Dodgers-Luke Leto||SS||Portage Central, MI
-------Ty Madden
A month ago Luke Leto was seen as a top 10 lock and potentially the best prep in the draft. There has been a lot of hype surrounding the Michigan native, but this summer has been a very bad one. Everyone is reporting that he looks lost a short, and the bat looks good, but not great. There is still a long way to go, but I wouldnt think he would get past the Dodgers, even with bonus concerns.

28.NY Yankees-Ty Madden||RHP||Texas
-------Colson Montgomery
We really needed to see more of Ty Madden in 2020. He came out strong, hitting 96 in games, dominating teams. Those teams were not good teams. Against Arkansas, he gave up 4 2B and a HR in 6 innings. You can add him to the list of guys we need to see a lot of in 2021.

29.Oakland-Tyree Reed||CF||American Canyon, CA
-------Sal Frelick
After a few of uninspiring drafts, I liked the pick of high school catcher Tyler Soderstrom last year. He did cost 700k overslot. Im not sure if Tyree Reed would be overslot here, but he is another California kid that would bring much needed talent to the organization. He is a top of the order guy with plus plus speed and should give good defense in center.

30.Chi Cubs-Jay Allen||CF||John Carroll Catholic, FL
-------Jack Perkins
In 2018, the Cubs took two high school outfielders with their picks in the second round. Its early, but the picks are looking very good. They took a raw, but talented high school kid in the first round this year. That my justification of taking Jay Allen over a more bland college pitcher that the team has been known to pick. Allen is jacked and probably isnt too projectable unless he grows, but he is very fast and very exciting. The power is there if he can unlock it. He's also Elite 11 and a QB commit for the football Gators.

 

 

31.Miami-Chase Burns||RHP||Station Camp, TN
-------Robby Martin
Miami could save some money with Hajjar, and take Burns with pick #31. They did Meyer/Fulton with their 1/2 picks in 2020, and Burns is BPA here and could go even higher.

32.Tampa Bay-Hagen Smith||LHP||Bullard, TX
-------Lorenzo Carrier
I have Tampa taking a position player with their first pick, so you know a pitcher is here, and Smith is a very projectable lefty that screams sandwich round.

33.Cincinnati-Jack Perkins||RHP||Louisville
-------Colson Montgomery
We took a hitter first their first pick so the front office's history says that a pitcher is the pick here. Add Perkins to the list of guys that we need to see a lot in 2021.

34.Detroit-Robby Martin||RF||Florida State
-------Sal Frelick
The last college hitter went at 24, and Detroit took a pitcher with their first pick, so a sliding Robby Martin makes sense here. If Martin could hit for power, he has a chance at the top 20.

35.Oakland-Sal Frelick||CF||Boston College
-------Tommy Mace
After taking a position player in the first round, I have constantly been giving the A's a under the slot type guy here like Tommy Mace out of Florida. They've done that trick a few times over the past few seasons, but I decided to stay with a hitter. Frelick is speed and defense, but he could be a leadoff type guy with his plus exit velos.

36.Milwaukee-Ben Specht||RHP||Florida
-------Colson Montgomery
Because of their depth, Ben Specht has been a reliever for his first two seasons in Gainesville. With Mace, Leftwich, and Barco coming back, and his dominating stuff, he might be the closer again in 2021. Plus fastball. Plus curveball. High spin rates.

 

Edited August 16, 2020 by devils1854

[devils1854]

Huge news for the draft and for college baseball. I had him in the top 20, so a draft that looks to be a little weak, just got weaker. For college baseball, you just added Little to probably the best pitching staff in 2021. Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter are the two huge names right now, but you also have returning starter Ethan Smith(probably a top 5 round guy in 2021), Huge Fisher coming back from injury(I think closer), Spencer Jones the highly touted recruit this past year who just played the field because of coming back from a fractured elbow, and finally you have the freshman that pitched lights out in the pen in 2020(Hliboki, Schultz, and Doolin). They will be the favorites, along with Florida, for the title next year.

[hrubes20]

On 9/6/2020 at 7:10 AM, devils1854 said:

Huge news for the draft and for college baseball. I had him in the top 20, so a draft that looks to be a little weak, just got weaker. For college baseball, you just added Little to probably the best pitching staff in 2021. Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter are the two huge names right now, but you also have returning starter Ethan Smith(probably a top 5 round guy in 2021), Huge Fisher coming back from injury(I think closer), Spencer Jones the highly touted recruit this past year who just played the field because of coming back from a fractured elbow, and finally you have the freshman that pitched lights out in the pen in 2020(Hliboki, Schultz, and Doolin). They will be the favorites, along with Florida, for the title next year.

I saw that.  Not much "probably" anymore in the statement about Vandy having the best 2021 pitching in the country.  

[naptownskinsfan]

The Orioles done messed up our chances for Leiter or Rocker.  I'm a bit pissed.  

[DirtyDez]

Hazen is high key tanking.  

[devils1854]

On 9/8/2020 at 11:07 AM, hrubes20 said:

I saw that.  Not much "probably" anymore in the statement about Vandy having the best 2021 pitching in the country.  

Florida has Barco(top5 22), Mace(top75 21), and Leftwich(top75 21) in its weekend rotation and Ben Specht(top50 21), who might be the best of them all, as closer. Returning big time freshmen in Sproat, Nesbitt, and Mink. Plus their own heralded incoming freshman in Timmy Manning.

Id also throw in Virginia's pitching staff for 2021. Savino, Vasil, Abbott, and McGary. Savino enrolled early last year and is in the running for top 5 in 22. Vasil is a first round type if his velo rebounds. He was sitting in the high 80s in starts this past year. Abbott is the undersized electric reliever that will go top 100 next year, and McGary has the stats and is someone that the analytic community loves(I havent looked).

College baseball in 2021 can be historic if it goes as planned. There is so much talent in the college ranks at the moment. The 2022 draft could be legendary if both the high school and college kids continue to progress.

[Slateman]

As of today, the Nats would have the number 5 pick in the draft. Hill would 100% be a Mike Rizzo pick 

[hrubes20]

On 9/12/2020 at 8:01 AM, devils1854 said:

Florida has Barco(top5 22), Mace(top75 21), and Leftwich(top75 21) in its weekend rotation and Ben Specht(top50 21), who might be the best of them all, as closer. Returning big time freshmen in Sproat, Nesbitt, and Mink. Plus their own heralded incoming freshman in Timmy Manning.

Id also throw in Virginia's pitching staff for 2021. Savino, Vasil, Abbott, and McGary. Savino enrolled early last year and is in the running for top 5 in 22. Vasil is a first round type if his velo rebounds. He was sitting in the high 80s in starts this past year. Abbott is the undersized electric reliever that will go top 100 next year, and McGary has the stats and is someone that the analytic community loves(I havent looked).

College baseball in 2021 can be historic if it goes as planned. There is so much talent in the college ranks at the moment. The 2022 draft could be legendary if both the high school and college kids continue to progress.

Florida is definitely really good, for sure.  But I was already high on Ethan Smith taking that next step and establishing himself as a top 50 draft pick this year (to go along with the potential top 1-2 overall in Rocker/Leiter) and then the addition of Little as an early entry just puts the cherry on top for clearly the best collegiate staff for me.  

Absolutely agree on both of the bolded statements.  I can't wait.  

[devils1854]

On 9/16/2020 at 11:10 AM, hrubes20 said:

Florida is definitely really good, for sure.  But I was already high on Ethan Smith taking that next step and establishing himself as a top 50 draft pick this year (to go along with the potential top 1-2 overall in Rocker/Leiter) and then the addition of Little as an early entry just puts the cherry on top for clearly the best collegiate staff for me.  

Absolutely agree on both of the bolded statements.  I can't wait.  

Im curious to see if Brett Hansen is on Vanderbilt's roster this year. His two year mission is up. Lots of people arent even sure if he is apart of the team anymore, but he could be a potential first rounder if his stuff is there.

 

Also, speaking of 22, Connor Prielipp might be the best pitching prospect since Strasburg, and maybe better.

 

[devils1854]

College baseball started this weekend and I just started flipping through channels watching some guys.

I hope to have my top 50 by Friday. I have a long way to go with fall info.

• Jud Fabian has Kd three times today and I saw one where he could catch up to low 90s heat three times down the middle of the plate
• Michael Rothenburg has a cannon at the catcher position. He threw out possible top 100 prospect Parker Chavers of Coastal Carolina by a mile. He is a hit first catcher whose lack of defense has hurt his stock. If he can catch, he could be first round material. Was not drafted last year.
• Parker Chavers just made an awful read from center with a dive. Hitter ended up with a double. Two bad plays so far.
• Its only Evansville, and the kid is only a freshman, but HAHA for teams not drafting a top 75 high school catching prospect in Corey Collins. I love this as a Georgia fan. He has DHed the first two games. 4-5, HR, RBI, 3 R, 2 BB, 1 K. Third game is coming up in the next few mins.
• I was wrong about game time for Georgia. 5th inning already. Corey Collins is going to be an all american. Low outside fastball and he effortlessly hits it to the oppo gap against the wall on a line. It was caught, but a freshman being that impressive in less than 10 ABs is impressive....or Im really bias because I am a UGA fan.

[devils1854]

Im going to try and do this as much as I can since I should be able to watch some live college baseball regularly and it secretly lets me just comment on college baseball since its become my second favorite sport behind the MLB. It will be UGA and SEC dominant since its my conference and I watch it more than anything else, but I do try to watch as many big prospects and big teams as I can.

My preseason top 10 if anyone cares-1.Florida, 2.Virginia, 3.Louisville, 4.UCLA, 5.Vanderbilt, 6.Texas Tech, 7.Mississippi State, 8.Ole Miss, 9.UCSB, 10.Alabama

• Reading box scores, my 22 #1 and best player in the country, Connor Prielipp, went against McNeese State yesterday. 5 In, 4 H, 0 BB, 8 K, O R, 74 pitches
• In the State Farm Classic, Texas vs Mississippi State was the biggest matchup today. Ty Madden(UT) vs Christian MacLeod(MSU). Madden showed a velo bump this past fall and was being pushed as possibly a high first round pick. MacLeod is a kid that has the tools to be a first round pick, but because of the pandemic, we only got 21 great innings innings from him last year. Madden-4 IP, 4 H, 3 BB, 5 K, 3 ER, 79 pitches. MacLeod-4 IP, 6 H, 0 BB, 7 K, 1 R, 73 pitches.
• Jaden HIll, RHP, LSU vs Air Force-4 IP, 3 H, 0 BB, 5 K, 0 R, 62 IP.
• Ethan Wilson, possible top 20 pick, has not started yet for South Alabama. He came in to pinch hit last night but thats been his only AB so far. Not sure if he is injured.
• Carson Seymour is one of two Kansas State pitchers that have been getting helium since last season. Seymour throws hard and only has 20 innings under his belt at Kansas State. Vs Gonzaga....3 IN, 6 H, 3 BB, 2 K, 4 ER, 74 pitches
• Boston College has a trio of guys that could be drafted early.The best could be the light hitting CF Sal Frelick. 3-5, RBI, BB, SB vs Charleston Southern for a two game total of 4-10, 2 BB, 2 K, 2 SB, 4 singles. I dont see his value without any power because I dont see any other part of his game as elite.

[devils1854]