Best 2nd Year WR

[sammymvpknight]

AJ Brown is the answer. But lots of other really good ones, including those not listed like Williams and Hardman. 

[SaveOurSonics]

On 6/15/2020 at 7:55 AM, Forge said:

Johnson being slept on. I think he lead not only so rookies, but all receivers in average seperation per route run last year. Random statistic I heard on a fantasy podcast lol

Which sounds like a cool stat at face value until you dive into what it actually entails. Defenses typically shift less attention to lesser receivers, which promotes more separation. That stat (per my understanding) also only factors in routes in which the receiver was targeted, which typically implies that receiver isn't trusted to win contested catch situations. Most top WRs in the league will have a low average separation figure because of this. 

For the sake of evidence, here are players that were above or around Diontae's average separation (3.6): 

Jimmy Graham (3.9) 
Vance McDonald (3.8)
Nick Boyle (3.6) 
Albert Wilson (3.5) 
Jacob Hollister (3.5)
Hunter Renfrow (3.5) 
Nelson Agholor (3.4) 
Jordan Akins (3.4) 
Kyle Rudolph (3.4) 
DaeSean Hamilton (3.3) 

[HTTRDynasty]

8 minutes ago, SaveOurSonics said:

Which sounds like a cool stat at face value until you dive into what it actually entails. Defenses typically shift less attention to lesser receivers, which promotes more separation. That stat (per my understanding) also only factors in routes in which the receiver was targeted, which typically implies that receiver isn't trusted to win contested catch situations. Most top WRs in the league will have a low average separation figure because of this. 

For the sake of evidence, here are players that were above or around Diontae's average separation (3.6): 

Jimmy Graham (3.9) 
Vance McDonald (3.8)
Nick Boyle (3.6) 
Albert Wilson (3.5) 
Jacob Hollister (3.5)
Hunter Renfrow (3.5) 
Nelson Agholor (3.4) 
Jordan Akins (3.4) 
Kyle Rudolph (3.4) 
DaeSean Hamilton (3.3) 

Exactly what I was getting at in my question to @BlaqOptic, which he still hasn't answered.

[Forge]

17 minutes ago, SaveOurSonics said:

Which sounds like a cool stat at face value until you dive into what it actually entails. Defenses typically shift less attention to lesser receivers, which promotes more separation. That stat (per my understanding) also only factors in routes in which the receiver was targeted, which typically implies that receiver isn't trusted to win contested catch situations. Most top WRs in the league will have a low average separation figure because of this. 

For the sake of evidence, here are players that were above or around Diontae's average separation (3.6): 

Jimmy Graham (3.9) 
Vance McDonald (3.8)
Nick Boyle (3.6) 
Albert Wilson (3.5) 
Jacob Hollister (3.5)
Hunter Renfrow (3.5) 
Nelson Agholor (3.4) 
Jordan Akins (3.4) 
Kyle Rudolph (3.4) 
DaeSean Hamilton (3.3) 

I am ashamed to admit that I didn't think about the bolded...for some reason, I heard the stat and just thought that it was all routes run, though thinking on it now, I don't know why I just assumed that. 

Though I don't think that there's anything wrong with not being a "contested catch" guy. Some aren't, some are. Obviously the best will be trusted in those situations because they are "the guy", which will help to inflate their volume numbers, but I still think that you can be a good receiver without being a contested catch guy is basically what I'm saying. It may cap your ceiling, but you can still be good. 

[SaveOurSonics]

As for my opinion, I think it's a toss-up between AJ Brown and Terry McClaurin. Brown has the makings of a dominant possession receiver, whereas McClaurin can threaten you all over the field. It really depends on what system you're seeking a WR for. 

If you're the Patriots for example, AJ Brown is the ideal WR (gotta be kicking themselves for going N'Keal Harry). 

If you're the Eagles, Terry McClaurin is a far better fit for how you want to attack defenses. 

 

With all of that said, I could very easily see DK Metcalf end the 2020 season with the best stats because he plays with the most efficient QB and is an absolute ideal scheme fit with what Seattle likes to do. He also came on very strong late in the season with his route tree and versatility in beating defenses. If that carries over into 2020, the sky is the limit. 

[SaveOurSonics]

2 minutes ago, Forge said:

Though I don't think that there's anything wrong with not being a "contested catch" guy. Some aren't, some are. Obviously the best will be trusted in those situations because they are "the guy", which will help to inflate their volume numbers, but I still think that you can be a good receiver without being a contested catch guy is basically what I'm saying. It may cap your ceiling, but you can still be good. 

I would very much agree with that point. I'm not trying to say Diontae is a bad or even mediocre receiver. But when discussing "who is the best from a historical class", a capped ceiling is a pretty big differentiator. 

[Forge]

Just now, SaveOurSonics said:

I would very much agree with that point. I'm not trying to say Diontae is a bad or even mediocre receiver. But when discussing "who is the best from a historical class", a capped ceiling is a pretty big differentiator. 

Fair to say, for sure. 

[EAGLES3658]

1. Brown

2. McLaurin

[Letsch80]

I am biased but Marquise is going to have a monster season.. He's finally healthy!! 

[RaidersAreOne]

No love for 3rd and Renfrow!?

In all seriousness, last year's WR class produced so well early. Metcalf has the best QB so I'll go him as far as stats next year goes.

[HoboRocket]

On 4/1/2019 at 12:30 AM, NYRaider said:

Who's better AJ Brown or Hollywood Brown? 

 

On 4/1/2019 at 9:13 AM, HoboRocket said:

Honestly, people say DK opened that offense, but he was gone for a lot of his college career and the offense kept chugging. AJ Brown opened things up for everybody else letting DK and then DeMarkus Lodge get freed up to make deep plays. Brown legitimately WAS facing a ton of double teams and took so much pressure from opposing defenses but still played clutch and had good production.

 

On 4/1/2019 at 9:14 AM, HoboRocket said:

His Auburn tape is a good example.

 

On 4/1/2019 at 9:29 AM, BleedTheClock said:

Great question. I have both tied in my grades. Probably AJ Brown, but only by a tick. I'd probably take Hollywood over AJ because of the big play potential and upside, but AJ Brown is more refined, has more consistent hands, and is a beast in his own right.

 

AJ Brown doesn't get the pub he should around here. He could be the 1st WR taken and I wouldn't bat an eye.

 

On 4/1/2019 at 10:26 AM, HoboRocket said:

Really reminds me of a better version of DJ Moore. And his 40 was good for his size.

 

On 4/1/2019 at 10:56 AM, BleedTheClock said:

DJ Moore is more of a burner. AJ Brown is a man child at WR that runs good routes, is a nightmare after the catch, and works all levels of the field. I really don't mind the DJ Moore comparison from a play comparison actually. I just think Moore had more juice and wasn't able to RAC truck people nearly as effectively because of his size. Moore is still a biznitch after the catch, but it's not on Brown's level.

 

On 4/1/2019 at 1:41 PM, HoboRocket said:

I'll give you that. Moore is definitely more of that deep threat. Brown may be able to run a go route, too, but Moore does run a better forty.

AJ Brown is the truth. I'll try to pull up my stuff on Renfrow and McLaurin as well. I was pretty vocal about Renfrow and McLaurin's skill-set translating to the NFL.

Renfrow was Kupp-lite to me as far as play-style goes, or like a smaller Keenan Allen maybe. Loved his intangibles, route-running, reliable hands, clutch factor, and especially the sharp movement skills that make it all come together.

I was actually not in love with Metcalf, but he landed in the perfect spot in Seattle. Still, he's a .50 call bullet. Flies and smacks, but he still hasn't shown me the ability to move sharply the way that Scary Terry and Third-And-Renfrow do. He doesn't need to, though. He has reliable hands and a demigod's body.

I was a fan of Slayton, believe I posted about him in the Giants subforum as their potential #1, the week of the Corey Coleman season-ending injury. He was raw coming out, but everyone slept on his athleticism that made him so coveted at Auburn pre-draft. He's a missile with change-of-direction ability, and has the body of a #1 NFL WR. 

Hollywood Brown is kind of like Kyler Murray at WR. Like, if you dig into what he CAN do, he does pretty much everything from an athletic and technical standpoint. The questions are in his size and ability to survive in the NFL. He's lightning-fast, very quick, and a refined route-runner with great hands. He separates and plays MUCH tougher than you'd think at his size. He has all the dog to him that we all wish Collin Johnson had.

A lot of people here compared Diontae Johnson very heavily to Antonio Brown, and I think that still holds true from a stylistic standpoint. I don't see Johnson being on the same level, but nobody expects that. He could be a good WR.

Mecole Hardman was also talked about a lot, especially as a return specialist. I believe I wrote about the slept-on heroes of that Georgia offense pre-draft in Hardman, Nauta, Godwin, and Galliard. Really thought that all four had something valuable to contribute to an NFL team. If it's not on here, then it's in my email.

When some people pooped on Preston Williams for a poor 40, I stated that I actually liked him and was more interested in his ability to change direction at his size. It sparked a whole debate about whether Metcalf or Renfrow/Stanley Morgan were better. Luckily, I hedged my bets by answering that I liked all three lol. I believe @Jeezla liked Preston Williams and was among the first to point out his ability, but I think he was also disappointed in his athletic testing and cooled off a bit if I remember correctly.

Lots of great WRs from last year, and I think that group may end up growing. Parris Campbell's similarity to Tavon Austin as far as being really fast but not having much success downfield is a bit concerning, but I think he could break out this year. N'Keal Harry still has upside, and could turn things around. Some people had Hakeem Butler as WR1 pre-draft, and I know @SmittyBacall was crushing on him HARD, but he missed his entire rookie season due to an injury. Andy Isabella also missed most of last season, but also showed some flashes when he was on field and gave some reason for optimism moving forward. 

Anyways, I know I didn't answer the question. If I had to pick ONE, it would probably be AJ Brown, but Terry McLaurin is RIGHT THERE WITH HIM in my opinion, and both have All-Pro potential. I hyped up Terry in the "Where do you see these guys in 5 years" thread, and I mean it. His talent is real.

 

[SmittyBacall]

1 hour ago, HoboRocket said:

Some people had Hakeem Butler as WR1 pre-draft, and I know @SmittyBacall was crushing on him HARD, but he missed his entire rookie season due to an injury. Andy Isabella also missed most of last season, but also showed some flashes when he was on field and gave some reason for optimism moving forward. 

I remember that. The more I watched, the more I liked. Not sure what happened to him this past year, but I still have high hopes.

[BleedTheClock]

2 hours ago, SmittyBacall said:

I remember that. The more I watched, the more I liked. Not sure what happened to him this past year, but I still have high hopes.

He was injured. And then they had Damiere Byrd show up big for them and earn some PT. He will be good methinks. I liked him a lot. 

[Jeezla]

19 hours ago, HoboRocket said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

AJ Brown is the truth. I'll try to pull up my stuff on Renfrow and McLaurin as well. I was pretty vocal about Renfrow and McLaurin's skill-set translating to the NFL.

Renfrow was Kupp-lite to me as far as play-style goes, or like a smaller Keenan Allen maybe. Loved his intangibles, route-running, reliable hands, clutch factor, and especially the sharp movement skills that make it all come together.

I was actually not in love with Metcalf, but he landed in the perfect spot in Seattle. Still, he's a .50 call bullet. Flies and smacks, but he still hasn't shown me the ability to move sharply the way that Scary Terry and Third-And-Renfrow do. He doesn't need to, though. He has reliable hands and a demigod's body.

I was a fan of Slayton, believe I posted about him in the Giants subforum as their potential #1, the week of the Corey Coleman season-ending injury. He was raw coming out, but everyone slept on his athleticism that made him so coveted at Auburn pre-draft. He's a missile with change-of-direction ability, and has the body of a #1 NFL WR. 

Hollywood Brown is kind of like Kyler Murray at WR. Like, if you dig into what he CAN do, he does pretty much everything from an athletic and technical standpoint. The questions are in his size and ability to survive in the NFL. He's lightning-fast, very quick, and a refined route-runner with great hands. He separates and plays MUCH tougher than you'd think at his size. He has all the dog to him that we all wish Collin Johnson had.

A lot of people here compared Diontae Johnson very heavily to Antonio Brown, and I think that still holds true from a stylistic standpoint. I don't see Johnson being on the same level, but nobody expects that. He could be a good WR.

Mecole Hardman was also talked about a lot, especially as a return specialist. I believe I wrote about the slept-on heroes of that Georgia offense pre-draft in Hardman, Nauta, Godwin, and Galliard. Really thought that all four had something valuable to contribute to an NFL team. If it's not on here, then it's in my email.

When some people pooped on Preston Williams for a poor 40, I stated that I actually liked him and was more interested in his ability to change direction at his size. It sparked a whole debate about whether Metcalf or Renfrow/Stanley Morgan were better. Luckily, I hedged my bets by answering that I liked all three lol. I believe @Jeezla liked Preston Williams and was among the first to point out his ability, but I think he was also disappointed in his athletic testing and cooled off a bit if I remember correctly.

Lots of great WRs from last year, and I think that group may end up growing. Parris Campbell's similarity to Tavon Austin as far as being really fast but not having much success downfield is a bit concerning, but I think he could break out this year. N'Keal Harry still has upside, and could turn things around. Some people had Hakeem Butler as WR1 pre-draft, and I know @SmittyBacall was crushing on him HARD, but he missed his entire rookie season due to an injury. Andy Isabella also missed most of last season, but also showed some flashes when he was on field and gave some reason for optimism moving forward. 

Anyways, I know I didn't answer the question. If I had to pick ONE, it would probably be AJ Brown, but Terry McLaurin is RIGHT THERE WITH HIM in my opinion, and both have All-Pro potential. I hyped up Terry in the "Where do you see these guys in 5 years" thread, and I mean it. His talent is real.

 

Preston Williams also had character red flags, but yeah, his pro day was terrible. He's a gamer though. Shame he got hurt.

[titwio]

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