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HTTRDynasty

Several Cowboys and Texans Players are COVID-19 Positive

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9 hours ago, mikemike778 said:

A player with no illness coming into contact with another player with no contact and there's no problem regardless of whether they are 1mm away. German Bundesliga test on the same day. All players get tested on the day and anyone positive can't play. Straight forward. You may need bigger rosters but so what.

If it turns out 30 players are infected per team then you rethink but other sports suggest this wont be the case. 

All of these arguments from people finding reasons why you couldn't restart Soccer went on . If you listened to some people then it was impossible but the German league has been going for weeks without problem. Yes there is less contact but they are all negative so it doesn't matter.

First off, congrats to Germany and the Bundesliga, they've done a fantastic job managing during this pandemic. The New York Times wrote a great article on how they've handled it and how Merkel, a scientist by training -  has been on top of it from the beginning.
But there's a few significant differences that need to be considered

First off, testing isn't 100% accurate, there are false positives/negatives. So while its a great step forward, its not infallible and we've seen people test differently on different days, going pos, neg, pos over a 3 day period. Which of those 3 tests determines if the player will play ? Who decides ?

Football has 90 players in summer/spring, 65 in the fall. Soccer has 25. Football teams have 20- 25 official coaches and a batch of interns on top of that.
The numbers are just so much higher in football and each additional person represents an additional risk for the "team bubble"  And once an infection is into a team it spreads like wildfire as we've seen already with the college kids and the NFLPA yesterday telling the players to stop hosting practices

In soccer, the field is wider & longer and the players are more spread out, in football - its a smaller field and the players are tightly bunched, both in the huddle and to start every play. In football they use their hands on the ball and on each other more frequently than in soccer and touching your face is one of the biggest infection concerns.

In soccer, the fullbacks, sweepers, goalies rarely interact with their counterparts on the other team, while all 11 in football bang into all 11 opponents for 3 hours. ( instead of 90 minutes)  Time & proximity are often listed as the 2 biggest determinants of viral transmission.

I'm not saying its impossible - and they're certainly going to do everything they can to have an NFL season.
But saying that frequent testing = no risk, really isn't consistent with what we know about testing
And using Germany's success with the Bundesliga as a proxy for the NFL in US -  just isn't a great fit for a variety of reasons.  

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Here's some revenue math to consider during the pandemic. And we know the owners love revenue.

The NFL is planning on not selling tix to first 6-10 rows of each stadium to protect players/coaches from the vermin, err fans.
So even if they open up other areas, the seats closest to the field will be empty.

Instead they will sell ads and tarp space to cover those seats.
If a fan paid $150 ticket + $40 to park + $30 for beer + $20 for food, that's a total of $240. Round up and we have $250 in revenue per fan

If the tarp covers 10 seats, that means they have to sell it for $2500 to cover the lost revenue of having actual humans in those seats
Those ad tarps will go for a LOT more than $2500, more like $25,000 or $250,000. Even if the tarp covers 20-30 seats, its still more lucrative to have ads

What that suggests is that the NFL is much better off without the messy humans in the stadium. No clean up, no plumbing issues, no water use, no security to watch over the fans. Don't need food, beverage,  vendors, cups plates, garbage collection. No ticket takers. Smaller electric bill. Fans are messy and needy compared to an ad on a tarp. They can re-create the cheering and fan noise with soundtracks.

At the end of the day, the NFL owners might decide they really don't need no stinkin' fans at the game.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Shanedorf said:

Here's some revenue math to consider during the pandemic. And we know the owners love revenue.

The NFL is planning on not selling tix to first 6-10 rows of each stadium to protect players/coaches from the vermin, err fans.
So even if they open up other areas, the seats closest to the field will be empty.

Instead they will sell ads and tarp space to cover those seats.
If a fan paid $150 ticket + $40 to park + $30 for beer + $20 for food, that's a total of $240. Round up and we have $250 in revenue per fan

If the tarp covers 10 seats, that means they have to sell it for $2500 to cover the lost revenue of having actual humans in those seats
Those ad tarps will go for a LOT more than $2500, more like $25,000 or $250,000. Even if the tarp covers 20-30 seats, its still more lucrative to have ads

What that suggests is that the NFL is much better off without the messy humans in the stadium. No clean up, no plumbing issues, no water use, no security to watch over the fans. Don't need food, beverage,  vendors, cups plates, garbage collection. No ticket takers. Smaller electric bill. Fans are messy and needy compared to an ad on a tarp. They can re-create the cheering and fan noise with soundtracks.

At the end of the day, the NFL owners might decide they really don't need no stinkin' fans at the game.

I'm currently watching the first Ravens-Steelers game from last year.  It's towards the end of the 1st qtr and I don't think I've seen a shot of the fans once...

I doubt those ads sell for as much as you're assuming, or that there will be many of them sold.

EDIT: The only exception are the seats directly behind the field goal post.  Those aren't enough seats to make up for the loss of fan revenue throughout the entire stadium.

Edited by HTTRDynasty

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I don’t think it will be weird at all to see the game without fans. I could care less if they play without fans for the next 5 years, so long as there is NFL football. 
 

I much prefer watching the games from home where I can be more analytical with the DVR. Going to the games makes it hard to see what happened a lot of times.

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On 2020-06-20 at 11:10 PM, Shanedorf said:

FreezerBowlV%2Bpittsburgh%2Bsteelers%2Bn

 

And this shot below from the Ice Bowl helps to "visualize" what it would be like in the stands. Of course at these cold temps it isn't as big a deal, but those clouds of aerosols are happening at warm temps too and that's how the virus is spread, you just can't see it like you do in these pics.

 

ice-bowl-2-650.jpg&f=1&nofb=1

This is, no joke, the most informative way to illustrate how the virus is spread that i've seen so far.

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