You Get One Move

[MonserinNC]

Im not super invested in this argument because we already know what the Bears QB situation is, but I would argue that Dak has LESS potential than Cutler did when we traded for him......Trading for Cutler was like if we traded for Wentz right now.

I actually love Dak but he is clearly one of those guys who is either overpaid or or over traded for......in the NBA you see it all the time. Devin Booker is a max player but you clearly cant win a title with him.....Dak is the Devin Booker of the NFL haha

[Sugashane]

9 hours ago, JustAnotherFan said:

Gotta ride with Suga on this one on both accounts. 

Cutler was in no way better than Dak is. As Suga said, he may have had a stronger arm but that's about it. And that strong arm doesn't mean anything when it's as erratic as Cutler's was. 

I also agree 100% that if Mitch were to have an MVP season then you have to give him the Kirk Cousins treatment. In fact, I wouldn't be opposed to trading him and seeing what we can get for him in exchange. But that just shows my lack of faith in him is all.  

 

 

5 hours ago, MonserinNC said:

Im not super invested in this argument because we already know what the Bears QB situation is, but I would argue that Dak has LESS potential than Cutler did when we traded for him......Trading for Cutler was like if we traded for Wentz right now.

I actually love Dak but he is clearly one of those guys who is either overpaid or or over traded for......in the NBA you see it all the time. Devin Booker is a max player but you clearly cant win a title with him.....Dak is the Devin Booker of the NFL haha

You may be right, but with most of our QBs were aren't hoping to win the Super Bowl, just hoping to beat the Packers once and make a wildcard appearance occasionally. Lol

[topwop1]

On 6/23/2020 at 12:10 AM, JustAnotherFan said:

We're not only talking about Mitch just playing well. We're talking about Mitch being MVP of the league. Different levels there.

I'm tired of looking for a QB too. But I'm even more tired of settling for mediocrity at the position too only HOPING they reach their potential all because they look a tad bit better than what we as Bears fans are accustomed to seeing. I'm tired of settling with players like Jim Miller, Grossman, and Cutler.  All this does is set your franchise back for YEARS.

Even if Mitch played well enough to earn a MVP,  it would take alot more to convince me that the season was more of an anomaly than it is a true projection going forward. And I'm old school. I still believe it takes 5 years to see what you truly have in a QB. But only IF said QB has given me enough of a reason to give him that long of a leash and Mitch does not fall into that category. Mitch has shown me enough at this point to believe that his ceiling is a high-end career backup QB and his career average projection is equal to a Jacoby Brissett type. 

But Mitch isn't the answer--even if he did win MVP. It's best we cut our losses now and take another shot in the 2021 draft rather than spending big money and being stuck with another average -at-best QB for the next decade.

Not too mention, if Mitch did win MVP then we most likely do not win the SB either because MVP's don't usually make it to the Superbowl at all.....so that's NOT the best case scenario either. 

Basically what I'm saying is. If Mitch won the MVP, it would not be his norm. It would be disastrous. Because Pace would throw a party--no scratch that--he would throw a festival just to throw it back in the face of every critic, and this would lead to him signing Mitch to a long-term 30 million dollar a year deal and we would be stuck with another mediocre QB for the next decade all because he caught lighting in a bottle. 

I'm sorry, but I actually want proven reliable stability at the QB position instead of the same old banking on "what if potential" BS.  

Sorry man but I don't really get your post.

If Mitch wins MVP then how would that be disastrous?  That would mean he would have played like the best player in the NFL and likely would have meant the team having a very realistic chance at winning the Super Bowl. I'm not sure where you get the correlation between winning MVP and not having a chance at a SB, just because other QB's in recent years haven't done won the SB and MVP in the same season?  If it just means the Bears getting there then I'd take that as a success.

If Mitch plays good enough to be MVP then I do not see how you can take that as a fluke either.  Catching lightning in a bottle is one thing, but we are talking about the award that goes to the best player in the NFL.  How many one hit wonders have ever won MVP?

I mean I'm just dumbfounded at why anyone would think Mitch winning MVP would be bad.  If the guy accomplishes that feat then he deserves a big new contract quite frankly.

[beardown3231]

1 hour ago, topwop1 said:

Sorry man but I don't really get your post.

If Mitch wins MVP then how would that be disastrous?  That would mean he would have played like the best player in the NFL and likely would have meant the team having a very realistic chance at winning the Super Bowl. I'm not sure where you get the correlation between winning MVP and not having a chance at a SB, just because other QB's in recent years haven't done won the SB and MVP in the same season?  If it just means the Bears getting there then I'd take that as a success.

If Mitch plays good enough to be MVP then I do not see how you can take that as a fluke either.  Catching lightning in a bottle is one thing, but we are talking about the award that goes to the best player in the NFL.  How many one hit wonders have ever won MVP?

I mean I'm just dumbfounded at why anyone would think Mitch winning MVP would be bad.  If the guy accomplishes that feat then he deserves a big new contract quite frankly.

You know my thoughts on Trubisky, but I'm with you. If he wins the MVP that would not only be a fantastic individual accomplishment but also means the Bears win 13+ games and have a real shot at winning the entire thing.

Keep in mind, even if he were to win MVP they could still tag him twicw to make him prove it wasn't a fraud. It's not like an MVP = automatic 5 year deal.

[BEAR FACE DOWN ARROW]

I think we're arguing extremes here.  If Mitch manages to win MVP he's a keeper and we're good.  He's not going to win MVP. 

[The_Romen]

What if Mitch were to say he wants 3 years, 15m guaranteed each year, with incentives... Wins MVP makes 30m, wins SBMVP 40m. Something like that. Would anyone do it?

[JAF-N72EX]

4 hours ago, topwop1 said:

Sorry man but I don't really get your post.

If Mitch wins MVP then how would that be disastrous?

I've already explained why it would be disastrous. RE: Mitch winning the MVP would be an outlier....not the norm. 

And even though if Mitch did win MVP I would prefer for Pace to do what @Sugashane and I were talking about.

But realistically,  if Mitch won MVP,  there is no way in hell Pace is not signing him to a long-term deal after all of the flack he has received from the media and fans. That would be his big told ya so moment capped off with huge middle finger to everyone. 

5 hours ago, topwop1 said:

That would mean he would have played like the best player in the NFL and likely would have meant the team having a very realistic chance at winning the Super Bowl. I'm not sure where you get the correlation between winning MVP and not having a chance at a SB, just because other QB's in recent years haven't done won the SB and MVP in the same season?

I mean, I guess Mitch could reinvent the wheel but I'm not putting money on it. MVP is both a blessing and a curse. They don't win the Super Bowl. It hasn't happened in over 20 years despite being won by some of the greatest QB's to ever play the game (Brady, Manning, and Rodgers).

So not only would we still most likely be without a trophy but also stuck with an average QB who grossly overachieved in a single season for at least 5 more years. 

5 hours ago, topwop1 said:

If Mitch plays good enough to be MVP then I do not see how you can take that as a fluke either.  Catching lightning in a bottle is one thing, but we are talking about the award that goes to the best player in the NFL. 

It absolutely would be a fluke. MVP voters love raw statistics and Mitch would have to have one of the greatest statistical improvements over projected that we have ever seen in order for him to win the MVP. I'm talking about statistically better improvement along the likes of 2007 Brady, 2011 Rodgers, and 2013 Manning, and in some ways much more improved.

Let me explain. Throw out Mitch's rookie year and use only his last 2 seasons as a barometer to gauge what his expected numbers are for 2020. Then do the same thing for former MVP winners. Use their previous 2 years prior to winning to the MVP to get the expected based average and compare them to their final results and see what the difference is. Finally, combine them all to get a average and then compare it to Mitch's expected numbers to see how much better statistically he would need to be.  

To keep this fair, I'm only going to compare former MVP QB's since 2007 when the league really started to become a passing league. I'm also not going to include Mahomes or Jackson because they didn't have 2 years of production before winning MVP. 

 

So, let's total up. The average increase/decrease differential for completions and Attempts among all MVPs are +26 and +27, respectively. Mitch on the other hand would need 68 more completions on just 86 more attempts than expected which would increase his completion percentage by nearly 2%.

• 68 completions above expected would be the 2nd highest on this list behind only Tom Brady's historical 2007 season.
• 86 attempts above expected would be also be the 2nd highest on this list behind only Rodgers' 2014 season.

The average passing yards for MVP's is 4,640 yards. Mitch's expected passing yards is 3,181 yards. The average above expected differential in passing yards for MVP's is +541 yards. Mitch would need to nearly triple this amount (+1,460).  

The average passing TD's for MVP's is 39. Mitch's expected is 21. The average above expected differential in passing TD's for MVP's  is +10. Mitch would need to nearly double this (19).

• Passing for 1,460 yards above expected would be by far the highest differential on this list and it's not even close. The next two highest would be Brady's 2007 season with 987 yards and Rodgers in 2014 with 966 yards.  
• Passing for 19 TD's above expected would be the 3rd highest on the list behind only Brady's 50 TD's in 2007 and Peyton's 55 TD's in 2013.

In passer rating, the MVP;s average was 108.7 with a average differential of +10.2. Mitch's expected QB rating is 89.2 and would need to see an increase of 19.5 above expected. 

• A +19.5 QB rating above expected would be the 4th highest on this list behind 2007 Brady(+27.1), 2016 Matt Ryan (+25.7), and 2011 Rodgers(20.3).

The average passing yards per game for MVPs is 292.0. Mitch's expected is 219.7. The average differential for the MVP's is +23.7. Mitch would need to have a +72.3 increase above average differential.

• The highest on this list is once again 2007 Brady with +61.7 yards per game. The next highest is 2013 Peyton Manning with +49.8.

==========================

If that's not an outlier then I don't know what is. This would be the epitome of overachieving. No scratch that, it would redefine the meaning of overachieving. 

9 hours ago, topwop1 said:

How many one hit wonders have ever won MVP?

An argument could be made for Cam Newton. But nonetheless, most MVP's have shown potential prior to winning it. Mitch hasn't. That goes back my point about it being an outlier. 

 

 

[JAF-N72EX]

33 minutes ago, The_Romen said:

What if Mitch were to say he wants 3 years, 15m guaranteed each year, with incentives... Wins MVP makes 30m, wins SBMVP 40m. Something like that. Would anyone do it?

I don't know man, that's hard without seeing how the contract is structured. I mean, 45M for 3 years is alot of guaranteed money that doesn't even include his base and other incentives. 

This would also mean that you are expecting him to start and I just can't get behind that. *In my Denzel voice*--he has this year and this year only to prove who and what he's made off. 

This would also mean if he doesn't workout in say 2 years then releasing him would more than likely mean taking a huge cap hit because he would still be owed 15M for his third year. 

Edited June 25, 2020 by JustAnotherFan

[soulman]

You mean the 2021 offseason?  The 2020 offseason is almost over.

So.....what one move would I make in 2021 and I have to decide now????  OK, then I'm gonna take a nap then and wait 'til the 2020 season ends.  Maybe I'll dream up something good.

[CWood21]

On 6/18/2020 at 4:43 PM, Sugashane said:

Draft : I trade up for Lawrence 1st overall - I mirror the Goff trade with two first-round picks, two second-rounders, and two third-round selections. 

Honestly, there's not a chance that any team moves off that pick.  And honestly, I think it would smash that package.

[The_Romen]

15 hours ago, JustAnotherFan said:

I don't know man, that's hard without seeing how the contract is structured. I mean, 45M for 3 years is alot of guaranteed money that doesn't even include his base and other incentives. 

This would also mean that you are expecting him to start and I just can't get behind that. *In my Denzel voice*--he has this year and this year only to prove who and what he's made off. 

This would also mean if he doesn't workout in say 2 years then releasing him would more than likely mean taking a huge cap hit because he would still be owed 15M for his third year. 

Yes it's a lot, but is baseline Mitch worth average starting money? He's not even close to the top with that hit, it's just that it's 100% guaranteed... I think I would do it. Test it out for a year or so, get a rookie in there and have them ride it out for a year or so. Then he's off the books and you can start fresh. Get what you can outta him for fairly cheap.

The only thing that would "suck" is him getting MVP/SBMVP but I would absolutely take that in exchange for a SB win!

[JAF-N72EX]

13 hours ago, The_Romen said:

Yes it's a lot, but is baseline Mitch worth average starting money? He's not even close to the top with that hit, it's just that it's 100% guaranteed.

But 45M guaranteed for 3 years is well above the average---that's the deal breaker. Teddy Bridgewater didn't even get that much in the open market this offseason. He only got 33M gtd and 46% of that was a SB(15M). At 45M gtd, your talking about roughly a 20M SB. That's alot of coin for a player like Mitch. 

The structure of the contract would matter but I would not do this at all. Even if we had the cap space to do so. You would be looking at cap hits of (roughly) 15/APY.

13 hours ago, The_Romen said:

Test it out for a year or so, get a rookie in there and have them ride it out for a year or so. Then he's off the books and you can start fresh. Get what you can outta him for fairly cheap.

I would be okay with keeping Mitch if he would be willing to take on a back up role AND take backup QB money. In fact, I think it would be perfect for him and us.

My whole thing with Mitch is this. He is not a starting quality QB but he is also not a QB who is bad enough to just faze out completely. He will find a job somewhere IF he is willing to take on a backup role. By all accounts, he's a high character guy with a good work ethic who is very open and willing to listen and learn without any issues. All coaches love teaching him and every player loves playing with him. A good locker room guy. That alone can go along way in this league. Ironically, look no further than Nick Foles as a perfect example of this.

Backup QB's are valuable assets and I would love for Mitch to stay on the team because I do like him as an individual and I value backup QB's and I do think he could be a high end one. I just don't want him to be our starter.

My perfect QB scenario for next offseason (while also keeping it realistic) would be this.

Draft a QB in the 1st round and allow him to sit for a year and learn the system, speed of the game, and other nuances needed instead of just throwing him into the fire (ala Rodgers, Mahomes). 

So in order for that to happen, realistically, we would need a decent backup QB to carry us over for one more year in 2021 and I think we already have that in both Mitch or Foles. 

If I'm Pace, this is what my future schedule is looking like. 

Edited June 26, 2020 by JustAnotherFan

[JAF-N72EX]

18 hours ago, soulman said:

You mean the 2021 offseason?  The 2020 offseason is almost over.

So.....what one move would I make in 2021 and I have to decide now????  OK, then I'm gonna take a nap then and wait 'til the 2020 season ends.  Maybe I'll dream up something good.

Lol. We tank hard next season and grab Lawrence in 2021. Then we tank again in 2022 and grab Khail Mack...I mean...Nolan Smith.