Which QB would you want?

[dll2000]

 

One of side purposes of poll is Dak is up for a big contract and I wanted to see what general fan opinion of him is against other comparable players and highly thought of prospects.   I had to take Watson out because it was clear near everyone puts Watson far ahead of him.

The Wentz/Dak debate is always interesting as well.  It is closer, but people seem to like Wentz better.   

@Matts4313keeps trying to influence the polls too, LOL.   No electioneering within 75 feet!   I think no amount of stats will ever tell the whole story in football because it is ultimate team game with most variables.   Why you can't convince people with stats I think.   I mean how many people would argue Emmitt Smith is greatest RB of all time?  Or could be convinced Marino or Favre were best ever when they retired?  Some thought that to be sure, but not most.  

 To be fair to Dak I do think some of his perception is clouded by him being a 4th round pick rather than a top 2 or 3 hyped pick.   But not a whole bunch anymore.  He has overcome that for most part now.   

Other is I want to see what people think of former high round picks doing well vs. some newer ones that are still unknown.  

Interesting people still like the unproven guys even if you have to pay them more than rookie scale and commit to them for 5 years.  Everyone wants the home run pick I think even with higher risk.  

It looks like I suspected, people look at Lawrence as a near can't miss prospect.  Best and most hyped since Luck.

Burrow gets a bit less love than I expected after his amazing season.  Longevity matters though and he kind of came out of nowhere.

So without doing math or figuring out how to properly way the votes in some way,  it looks like people would want in order:  Lawrence, Burrow, Wentz, Murray, Dak

Do I have that right?

 

 

 

[HTTRDynasty]

7 minutes ago, dll2000 said:

So without doing math or figuring out how to properly way the votes in some way,  it looks like people would want in order:  Lawrence, Burrow, Wentz, Murray, Dak

Do I have that right?

I think Murray is before Wentz, but yeah, those seem to be the results.

[Forge]

33 minutes ago, HTTRDynasty said:

I think Murray is before Wentz, but yeah, those seem to be the results.

Wentz may actually be last for me. It's actually pretty close between he and Dak in that regard. My concerns over Carson's health are a huge factor. 

[HTTRDynasty]

Just now, Forge said:

Wentz may actually be last for me. It's actually pretty close between he and Dak in that regard. My concerns over Carson's health are a huge factor. 

Yeah, I was speaking at a macro level.  Just going by the poll results, the order seems to be Lawrence, Burrow, Murray, Wentz, Dak.

Personally, I'd also probably take Dak over Wentz due to Wentz' unreliable health.  I think Wentz is a better QB when healthy; though the stats may not show it.

[Matts4313]

45 minutes ago, dll2000 said:

 

One of side purposes of poll is Dak is up for a big contract and I wanted to see what general fan opinion of him is against other comparable players and highly thought of prospects.   I had to take Watson out because it was clear near everyone puts Watson far ahead of him.

The Wentz/Dak debate is always interesting as well.  It is closer, but people seem to like Wentz better.   

@Matts4313keeps trying to influence the polls too, LOL.   No electioneering within 75 feet!   I think no amount of stats will ever tell the whole story in football because it is ultimate team game with most variables.   Why you can't convince people with stats I think.   I mean how many people would argue Emmitt Smith is greatest RB of all time?  Or could be convinced Marino or Favre were best ever when they retired?  Some thought that to be sure, but not most.  

 To be fair to Dak I do think some of his perception is clouded by him being a 4th round pick rather than a top 2 or 3 hyped pick.   But not a whole bunch anymore.  He has overcome that for most part now.   

Other is I want to see what people think of former high round picks doing well vs. some newer ones that are still unknown.  

Interesting people still like the unproven guys even if you have to pay them more than rookie scale and commit to them for 5 years.  Everyone wants the home run pick I think even with higher risk.  

It looks like I suspected, people look at Lawrence as a near can't miss prospect.  Best and most hyped since Luck.

Burrow gets a bit less love than I expected after his amazing season.  Longevity matters though and he kind of came out of nowhere.

So without doing math or figuring out how to properly way the votes in some way,  it looks like people would want in order:  Lawrence, Burrow, Wentz, Murray, Dak

Do I have that right?

 

 

 

I think ff.com is the absolute worst place in the world to ask anything about Dak. This website was created around the draft. The posters here suffer from delusions of their scouting ability. For instance, Reddit did a QB poll with 350k people, Dak came in 8th. On this website it wouldnt shock be if he was bottom 16. 

I like a lot of the dudes who post here. But this is not the mecca of intelligent football opinions. 

 

PS - you accused me of influencing the poll - - just a heads up that I didnt even vote. 

[dll2000]

1 hour ago, Matts4313 said:

I think ff.com is the absolute worst place in the world to ask anything about Dak. This website was created around the draft. The posters here suffer from delusions of their scouting ability. For instance, Reddit did a QB poll with 350k people, Dak came in 8th. On this website it wouldnt shock be if he was bottom 16. 

I like a lot of the dudes who post here. But this is not the mecca of intelligent football opinions. 

 

PS - you accused me of influencing the poll - - just a heads up that I didnt even vote. 

Most of what I say football wise on this forum is half in jest.  Don't take it personally.  

[Breesus mode]

On the topic of Dak

 

[Kmart128]

On 6/21/2020 at 11:53 AM, Daniel said:

How is Lawrence not everyone's obvious first choice?  Yall are nuts.

Because Burrow is better. Better in college and will be better in NFL 

Edited June 24, 2020 by marshawn lynch

[Forge]

45 minutes ago, marshawn lynch said:

Because Burrow is better. Better in college and will be better in NHL 

He probably should have played hockey then. Will he be better than Lawrence in the NFL? 

😁

[Kmart128]

9 hours ago, Forge said:

He probably should have played hockey then. Will he be better than Lawrence in the NFL? 

😁

lmao kinda ironic that my typo turned out to be a real sports league

[dll2000]

17 hours ago, Breesus mode said:

On the topic of Dak

 

Just like football forum future posters he is an idiot.  No one understands Dak like Matt.

 

[Matts4313]

18 hours ago, dll2000 said:

Just like football forum future posters he is an idiot.  No one understands Dak like Matt.

 

1. Brett was hired by ESPN and his opinions have been super 'hot-take' since then.

2. He is not even interpreting the #'s correctly. By his own admission 55% of playoff QBs are on second contracts. Additionally:

Quote

I think the discussion at @ 2:30 is flawed. Those percentages do not reflect ability to make the playoffs, they reflect the distribution of those categories in the NFL. Teams starting QBs on a rookie deal are more common than teams starting a QB on a top 10 deal, teams with a neither a starting QB on a rookie deal nor a QB with a top 10 QB deal are less common than either of the aforementioned groups, and teams that have both a starter on a rookie deal and another top 10 paid QB are very rare etc.

The proper way to compare these is to look at the ratio of teams within each of these categories that make the playoffs. I covered this in a post not long ago. I'll paste the relevant table from that post below (this is since 2011):

	<5% cap (73)	5-10% cap (90)	10-15% cap (95)	15%+ cap (30)
Made the playoffs	32.88% (24)	33.33% (30)	43.16% (41)	43.33% (13)
Advanced to Divisional	16.44% (12)	22.22% (20)	32.63% (31)	30.00% (9)
Advanced to Conference	9.59% (7)	11.11% (10)	14.74% (14)	16.67% (5)
Advanced to SB	5.48% (4)	5.56% (5)	7.37% (7)	6.67% (2)
Won the SB	2.74% (2)	3.33% (3)	4.21% (4)	0.00% (0)

 

[dll2000]

1 hour ago, Matts4313 said:

1. Brett was hired by ESPN and his opinions have been super 'hot-take' since then.

2. He is not even interpreting the #'s correctly. By his own admission 55% of playoff QBs are on second contracts. Additionally:

 

He is wrong a lot.  I guess so is most everyone. 

[dll2000]

2 hours ago, Matts4313 said:

1. Brett was hired by ESPN and his opinions have been super 'hot-take' since then.

2. He is not even interpreting the #'s correctly. By his own admission 55% of playoff QBs are on second contracts. Additionally:

 

If Dak is so elite why did Dallas lose to every good team they played last year and go 8-8 playing in worst division in football and against a fairly weakened NFCN?   Because all his teammates suck?  I am not buying it.   

I see he threw for 463 yards against GB which looks really good for yearly totals, but they were down 17-0 at half in that game and GB was in complete control.  This was at home too.   Stats can lie.   

For all your charts and graphs and arguments, Dak simply doesn't elevate this team and leaves Ws on the table.   Everyone sees it but you.   

2020 should be a good year because you have all your best players signed and had a real nice draft.  This should be a career year for Dak on paper.  

But once new key contracts come up and you have big Dak contract on books things will start to change rapidly - unless salary cap really is a myth.  It does seem most teams can keep guys they really want to keep.