Dynasty League Conundrum

[GordyTheGoffer]

Calling all Dynasty League enthusiasts,

Would like some help with a "potential" dilemma. I play in a high stakes dynasty league that supports trading of future 1st round picks. I would appreciate some thought and ideas that are in line with "fair competition" that deal with the below potential problem.

In the event that players within a league have A) already swapped first round picks for 2021 in a trade and B) The NFL season does not start or starts and crashes to the ground in the early portion of the season (due to Corona Virus) how would you....

1. Form a 2021 draft order without the previous seasons standing order?

2. Represent those swapped 1st round picks in the 2021 draft order?

Thanks

 

 

 

[squire12]

1.  Random draw for spots.  Any traded picks are then exchanged accordingly. 

2.  League wide vote on strongest to weakest teams of the other teams. Vote the other 11 in a 12 team league .  Tally the votes and use t j.g e cumulative total as the draft order.....percieved worst to best.

3.  Mimic in as best way possible how the NFL proceeds to set its draft order.

 

Put these and any other ideas to a league vote to determine the procedure. 

[GordyTheGoffer]

Hi Squire12,

Thanks for the suggestions.

I would not see 1 as absolute fair competition as the players would have swapped picks for a reason, likely to balance a trade out, clearly one person thought he was improving his side of the trade and therefore his position come the 2021 fantasy draft. Anything based on random factor would not represent the trade in my opinion however I do like 2 and 3 options.

Regards

[naptownskinsfan]

I would use the combined records from 2019 and 2020.  Or wait and see what the NFL decides and copy that.  

[GordyTheGoffer]

28 minutes ago, naptownskinsfan said:

I would use the combined records from 2019 and 2020.  Or wait and see what the NFL decides and copy that.  

Hi Fella,

I should have mentioned that the league is only going into its second year. Using this method was considered but it becomes an overpayment of draft picks based on previous form. Teams getting double the value for one poor season for example. It becomes unfair on those who did well for just one season. Its effectively 2 draft orders formed from 1 season.

Waiting to see how the NFL handles it is def an option.

Thanks

Edited June 28, 2020 by GordyTheGoffer

[winitall]

5 hours ago, squire12 said:

1.  Random draw for spots.  Any traded picks are then exchanged accordingly. 

2.  League wide vote on strongest to weakest teams of the other teams. Vote the other 11 in a 12 team league .  Tally the votes and use t j.g e cumulative total as the draft order.....percieved worst to best.

3.  Mimic in as best way possible how the NFL proceeds to set its draft order.

 

Put these and any other ideas to a league vote to determine the procedure. 

My suggestion would be to do a mixture of 1 & 2. If you aren't going to factor in previous records, you pretty much have to do something like #2. That would give you a pretty good base for a ranking. However, if we are being honest, people are going to play games with the lists. Even if there is no outright collusion between members to to raise their draft picks, people are going to try and help themselves. If person A thinks they have the 4th worst roster, they may overrate the rosters weaker than them in an attempt to improve their own draft slot. 

As a result, you just use this method as a base. The totals are calculated like squire said to get a perceived worst to best. At that point, you treat it like a draft lottery and give increased odds to the perceived worst teams. If you have 12 teams, the perceived worst gets 12 ping pong balls and the perceived best gets 1. Then, you just run it through a draft lottery simulator online. In this format, the perceived worst ends up with roughly a 15% chance at the 1st pick and the perceived best has roughly a 1.5% percent chance at it. More than likely the order stays roughly the same but it introduces some fun and excitement, as well as limiting the effects of unsavory rankings.

As far as the draft pick swaps, I don't think you have to do anything other than just enforce them. It's a part of Fantasy Football. If you make pick swaps there is always the chance that you come out on the losing end of it, even through no fault of your own. Its really no different than if their star player(s) got hurt and caused them to have a bad season. 

[GordyTheGoffer]

Excellent points winitall, thanks for taking the time.

Ultimately in my opinion the pick swaps are not about who traded with who, or even if one person does well out of it or not. I just feel that it needs to be represented to be fair. As an example: Lets say the the Jags wanted a decent player from the Saints and to get something in return the Saints agreed to swap what would seem like a late 1st for a seemingly early 1st. Both sides pull the trigger and the deal is done. Then a pandemic hits and the following years draft is upcoming. At this point I feel that the NFL would ensure they factor in the swapped picks into the draft, because to not factor it in means the Saints have been short changed, or not depending on how the season panned out. Its about maintaining competition standards as much as it is about being fair.

I totally agree with your logic about people ranking and tending to bias. Its not that I think anybody is a liar or cheat but actually that EVERYBODY is flawed and will tend to rank according to their own ideas re position strength and be more thorough with some valuations than others etc. I have heard the suggestion that the squads could be ranked by a 3rd party like fantasy pro's online tool and I thought that might work well. Even better when you include a lottery simulator as you say.

Rgds

Edited June 28, 2020 by GordyTheGoffer

[squire12]

7 hours ago, GordyTheGoffer said:

Hi Squire12,

Thanks for the suggestions.

I would not see 1 as absolute fair competition as the players would have swapped picks for a reason, likely to balance a trade out, clearly one person thought he was improving his side of the trade and therefore his position come the 2021 fantasy draft. Anything based on random factor would not represent the trade in my opinion however I do like 2 and 3 options.

Regards

Future picks are not an absolute value.  Team A may feel they are acquiring an early first from Team B.  Team B can make additional moves, catch hot players off waivers, squeak into the playoffs and end up with a late round pick slot.  Team A just went from expecting a top 3 pick to know getting a later in the round pick.  Stuff like this happens a fair amount

[GordyTheGoffer]

12 hours ago, squire12 said:

Future picks are not an absolute value.  Team A may feel they are acquiring an early first from Team B.  Team B can make additional moves, catch hot players off waivers, squeak into the playoffs and end up with a late round pick slot.  Team A just went from expecting a top 3 pick to know getting a later in the round pick.  Stuff like this happens a fair amount

Yes, totally agreed fella. Traded picks are a highly volatile currency. However, lets say player "A" felt he was moving a decent player to player "B" in return for a swap of 1st round picks because he felt there was a decent chance of improving his 1st round pick in the 2021 draft, to not represent that trade in the draft is the same as saying to player "A" - "Sorry but we are delivering you a loss on that trade and moving on, regardless of finishing positions".

Player B got the player they wanted, player A got nothing and the chance of something was wiped out.

Edited June 29, 2020 by GordyTheGoffer

[GordyTheGoffer]

I think we all agree that to swap picks is in some small way gambling with picks. There is a risk to it and there are times that it shall just not pan out as all players hoped. Absolutely true. Though in many cases the difference in quality between squads might indicate that it is more educated than blind gambling. Still a risk and still a gamble but not blind pot luck.

I would suggest that "not representing the traded/swapped picks" is the same as a person going to the race track, placing a bet on a horse in a race before that race was cancelled and for some bizarre reason the person then not being allowed to get their money back. The gambler gave away and received nothing in return.

Edited June 29, 2020 by GordyTheGoffer

[squire12]

2 hours ago, GordyTheGoffer said:

Yes, totally agreed fella. Traded picks are a highly volatile currency. However, lets say player "A" felt he was moving a decent player to player "B" in return for a swap of 1st round picks because he felt there was a decent chance of improving his 1st round pick in the 2021 draft, to not represent that trade in the draft is the same as saying to player "A" - "Sorry but we are delivering you a loss on that trade and moving on, regardless of finishing positions".

Player B got the player they wanted, player A got nothing and the chance of something was wiped out.

If team A moves a decent player to team B for a swap of first round picks.(teams A receives Team B first and Team B receives Team A First).

Season is canceled.  Fantasy league does random draw and team A gets 3rd pick while team B gets 10 pick.  Transfer picks based on the terms of the trade. Team B comes out ahead.

Season plays out as usual.  Team deals with injuries and subpar performances,  flukes losses etc and ends up with 3rd pick while Team B catches breaks, gets favorable waiver pickups, squeaks into playoffs and loses in the semis to the eventual champ and ends with the 10th pick.  Transfer the picks based on the terms of the trade.  Team B comes out ahead.

 

 

 

[squire12]

4 minutes ago, GordyTheGoffer said:

I think we all agree that to swap picks is in some small way gambling with picks. There is a risk to it and there are times that it shall just not pan out as all players hoped. Absolutely true. Though in many cases the difference in quality between squads might indicate that it is more educated than blind gambling. Still a risk and still a gamble but not blind pot luck.

I would suggest that "not representing the traded/swapped picks" is the same as a person going to the race track, placing a bet on a horse in a race before that race was cancelled and for some bizarre reason the person then not being allowed to get their money back. The gambler gave away and received nothing in return.

So are you suggesting to reverse all trades that involved a 2021 pick?

What if those picks were moved in 2019?

[GordyTheGoffer]

1 minute ago, squire12 said:

So are you suggesting to reverse all trades that involved a 2021 pick?

What if those picks were moved in 2019?

I'm not suggesting that all trades are reversed or anything like it fella, I am just looking for ways to represent trades that were previously made in a draft with no draft order.

As I say, the person who traded away a player for the chance of improving their 1st round pick in a future draft should not have that chance taken away from them. They sent resources to the other team for the chance of something in return. To not represent that chance later is unfair as I see it.

One suggestion I have heard elsewhere is to run a flat auction draft and delay the swapped picks for another year. Thats not ideal as squads can change a lot over time but it might be the closest we can get if we want to rely on a football result generated draft order (rather than fantasy player generated draft order).

Cheers

 

[squire12]

26 minutes ago, GordyTheGoffer said:

I'm not suggesting that all trades are reversed or anything like it fella, I am just looking for ways to represent trades that were previously made in a draft with no draft order.

When a future pick is traded, there is no set draft order.  It is a calculated process that can backfire

26 minutes ago, GordyTheGoffer said:

As I say, the person who traded away a player for the chance of improving their 1st round pick in a future draft should not have that chance taken away from them. They sent resources to the other team for the chance of something in return. To not represent that chance later is unfair as I see it.

They still get a chance for the pick to become a better pick than their pick.  The chance exists in a different process.  Instead of the season playing out, it would be a randomized draft order.

26 minutes ago, GordyTheGoffer said:

One suggestion I have heard elsewhere is to run a flat auction draft and delay the swapped picks for another year. Thats not ideal as squads can change a lot over time but it might be the closest we can get if we want to rely on a football result generated draft order (rather than fantasy player generated draft order).

Cheers

 

 

Auction with all teams having the same starting money?  So first person to get a player nomination max bids for the best rookie, Trevor Lawrence in a super flex format.  How is that nomination order determined?

 

What happens when those future picks have been traded?

[GordyTheGoffer]

"When a future pick is traded, there is no set draft order.  It is a calculated process that can backfire"

.....Yes, as above agreed - traded picks are not bankable and carry risk and can turn out as unexpected. However the trader who sent the player to the other team obviously believes there is some education to the move, not blind luck and therefore feels the risk is in his favour at the time of the trade. He paid for the risk and therefore deserves the outcome (good or bad) from that trade "in my humble opinion".

" They still get a chance for the pick to become a better pick than their pick.  The chance exists in a different process.  Instead of the season playing out, it would be a randomized draft order."

.....Absolutely but this is called blind luck, the gambler would have made the decision based on quality of the two squads at the time and believed he held a clear advantage. As you will appreciate you dont give away a decent player for a 50/50 chance.

" Auction with all teams having the same starting money?  So first person to get a player nomination max bids for the best rookie, Trevor Lawrence in a super flex format.  How is that nomination order determined"?

.... Yes level money - a flat draft for one year- where everybody has the same chance. However this was only discussed briefly and it remains unclear how tied bids would be processed/decided.

" What happens when those future picks have been traded"?

.... Can you elaborate pls dude?

Rgds

Edited June 29, 2020 by GordyTheGoffer