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GordyTheGoffer

Dynasty League Conundrum

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2 hours ago, GordyTheGoffer said:

"When a future pick is traded, there is no set draft order.  It is a calculated process that can backfire"

.....Yes, as above agreed - traded picks are not bankable and carry risk and can turn out as unexpected. However the trader who sent the player to the other team obviously believes there is some education to the move, not blind luck and therefore feels the risk is in his favour at the time of the trade. He paid for the risk and therefore deserves the outcome (good or bad) from that trade "in my humble opinion".

Example from a league I am in.  May 2018, Team LUCKY trades with team Snakebitten.   12 team, 0.5 ppr and 1 QB

Team Lucky sends 2019 1st for Dez Bryant and 2019 1st (pick swap of 2019 firsts)

Team Lucky later trades OBJ for Patrick Mahomes as a "throw in filler" in a deal for JuJu .

Trades Jimmy Graham for an unproven George Kittle and a future 3rd

Picks up Phillip Lindsay off waivers in late August.  

Drafts Nick Chubb at 1.3 after trading down from pick 1.2 and picking up an extra 2nd

Rides the starting core of Mahomes, Lindsay, Chubb, JuJu, Thielen, Woods, Kittle to a semifinals appearance while the other owner misses the playoffs.  

2 hours ago, GordyTheGoffer said:

" They still get a chance for the pick to become a better pick than their pick.  The chance exists in a different process.  Instead of the season playing out, it would be a randomized draft order."

.....Absolutely but this is called blind luck, the gambler would have made the decision based on quality of the two squads at the time and believed he held a clear advantage. As you will appreciate you dont give away a decent player for a 50/50 chance.

" Auction with all teams having the same starting money?  So first person to get a player nomination max bids for the best rookie, Trevor Lawrence in a super flex format.  How is that nomination order determined"?

.... Yes level money - a flat draft for one year- where everybody has the same chance. However this was only discussed briefly and it remains unclear how tied bids would be processed/decided.

Strongly advise avoiding that.   you have to have a process to determine a winner and the first person to bid would get the player, skewing the process to the nomination order, which effectively goes back to a random draft order.

2 hours ago, GordyTheGoffer said:

" What happens when those future picks have been traded"?

.... Can you elaborate pls dude?

Rgds

If a 2022 pick is traded already, how do you push the concept of pushing the 2021 picks that have been traded ahead a another year?

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Yes it is possible that a team over performs compared to how it looked at the point of the initial trade. I believe we agree on that. That is factored in. But in making your point you have also kinda made my own point too...... As we all know, Dynasty is a long winded game where in the end those who are competing each year should be those who are good at making the most out of their opportunities and making sound decisions over the longer term. The Dynasty format removes some of the good fortune (in time) that can occur in re-draft leagues. Every decision made can have huge consequences down the line due to the domino affect, which is why its so important in dynasty leagues to ensure a fair battle. You and others make the fair point that the gambler took a risk that does not always pan out as he expected. However nobody is making the point (except maybe myself) that actually some times it does work out, sometimes it works out that the gambler was either lucky or simply made a very good judgement and the difference in draft picks could be anything from 1.1 to 1.14 in a 14 man league. That is huge cheese in dynasty and could define the gambler as a contender for a few years to come, or not. The point I am making is, its wrong/unfair to not let that trade play out in some form.

In our auction the order in which bids are received would have no say in which bids won the player. The only factors would be bid amount and a pre defined way to settle tied bids when they occur.

Neither manager in the trade has traded away their 2022 1st round pick, they would become locked in any situ where the league agreed to move the trade back 1 year.

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, GordyTheGoffer said:

Yes it is possible that a team over performs compared to how it looked at the point of the initial trade. I believe we agree on that. That is factored in. But in making your point you have also kinda made my own point too...... As we all know, Dynasty is a long winded game where in the end those who are competing each year should be those who are good at making the most out of their opportunities and making sound decisions over the longer term. The Dynasty format removes some of the good fortune (in time) that can occur in re-draft leagues. Every decision made can have huge consequences down the line due to the domino affect, which is why its so important in dynasty leagues to ensure a fair battle. You and others make the fair point that the gambler took a risk that does not always pan out as he expected. However nobody is making the point (except maybe myself) that actually some times it does work out, sometimes it works out that the gambler was either lucky or simply made a very good judgement and the difference in draft picks could be anything from 1.1 to 1.14 in a 14 man league. That is huge cheese in dynasty and could define the gambler as a contender for a few years to come, or not. The point I am making is, its wrong/unfair to not let that trade play out in some form.

In our auction the order in which bids are received would have no say in which bids won the player. The only factors would be bid amount and a pre defined way to settle tied bids when they occur.

Neither manager in the trade has traded away their 2022 1st round pick, they would become locked in any situ where the league agreed to move the trade back 1 year.

 

 

 

I have never said it was a more fair way to decide a draft order.   you asked for thougths, I provide some and it was met with a continued issue of that not being fair when the general game is not something is fair and always follows a pre-determined process.   We are potentially going to go through an uncharted process if the NFL season is canceled or altered in a big way.

Some form of league rank vote and a random weighted lottery for draft order based on that makes some strong sense to balance as many moving parts as possible.  I am not seeing how an auction process would be fair if every one has the same amount of money.   you then have to decide on what to do with those picks that should have changed hands during the 2021 season.  pushing those picks back another year now lessens the value of the pick that was traded.    a future pick 1 year out is more valuable than a future pick 5 years out.

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15 minutes ago, squire12 said:

I have never said it was a more fair way to decide a draft order.   you asked for thougths, I provide some and it was met with a continued issue of that not being fair when the general game is not something is fair and always follows a pre-determined process.   We are potentially going to go through an uncharted process if the NFL season is canceled or altered in a big way.

Some form of league rank vote and a random weighted lottery for draft order based on that makes some strong sense to balance as many moving parts as possible.  I am not seeing how an auction process would be fair if every one has the same amount of money.   you then have to decide on what to do with those picks that should have changed hands during the 2021 season.  pushing those picks back another year now lessens the value of the pick that was traded.    a future pick 1 year out is more valuable than a future pick 5 years out.

Hi Dude, your thoughts and ideas are absolutely appreciated. I'm not against them. Your explaining one aspect and I'm simply trying to explain the other angle. I would say so far we have had 3 "good as it gets" suggestions...

1. Wait and follow the methods of the NFL  2. Team wide ranking of all squads with those rankings injected into a lottery to give poorer "looking" teams a larger chance of an early pick 3. A flat draft (possibly auction) with pushing back the trade to the following years draft (which I agree is maybe not as good as having that pick 1 year earlier).

Happy to hear other ideas.

Thanks

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