2021 NFL Draft Prospects

[diamondbull424]

1 hour ago, DreamKid said:

PFF's Top 10 receivers, and explanations for each. No big shocks, pretty much lines up with what we've discussed- https://www.pff.com/news/draft-2021-nfl-draft-wide-receiver-rankings

1. Ja'Marr Chase

2. Jaylen Waddle

3. DeVonta Smith

4. Rashod Bateman

5. Rondale Moore

6. Elijah Moore

7. Kardarius Toney

8. Terrace Marshall Jr.

9. Dyami Brown

10. Tylan Wallace

Funny, Smith is seemingly dropping down some boards and could drop down boards getting closer to the draft. Now that the combine is back and guys will be competing in shorts, could easily see Smith’s stock decline to this 3rd receiver level and could push him out of the top 12 as I predicted all the way back when and was harshly criticized for around these parts.

You are the only one that was on one who was on that same path as to how NFL evaluators might judge him and push him down the board some. We’ll see if it happens, but either way, we could do a lot worse than to obtain a talent like Rashod Bateman. He’s going to be a legit player.

I still think he compares to Crabtree and Gallup, but looks like he has better length. Could play a part in making him more effective at the next level, be more of a fringe #1 guy than a top #2 guy.
———

Interesting that they’re saying next years class isn’t shaping to look as good though. If true, it definitely puts extra pressure on DeCosta to prioritize the WR position in this draft.

[DreamKid]

35 minutes ago, diamondbull424 said:

You are the only one that was on one who was on that same path as to how NFL evaluators might judge him and push him down the board some. We’ll see if it happens, but either way, we could do a lot worse than to obtain a talent like Rashod Bateman. He’s going to be a legit player.

I still think he compares to Crabtree and Gallup, but looks like he has better length. Could play a part in making him more effective at the next level, be more of a fringe #1 guy than a top #2 guy.

It all comes down to if DeVonta Smith is actually WR3 on these team's boards, which he very well might be. Then if a team that would've taken a WR Top 10, 14, etc is going to value Kyle Pitts over Smith. That's the scenario where he falls imo, and it's definitely not one to write off. I mean DK Metcalf was mocked higher than Smith in a lot of 2019 mocks and still found his *** at the bottom of the 2nd Round after blowing up the combine in the most viral way possible. If he can fall 50 or so picks there's no reason Smith can't fall 6 or 7.

Rashod Bateman might have 4 tiers of outcomes:

Tier 1   -Solid

Prime Michael Crabtree

Tier 2  -Good

Allen Robinson

Keenan Allen

Courtland Sutton

Tier 3  -Great

Chris Godwin

Tier 4 -Elite

Davontae Adams

 

He comes off, essentially, as bust proof-which is key for us. And I also see him landing on the higher end of these projections/comps. All in all he's a really good Mid 1st Round WR to have a shot at. I don't like him as much as I did similarly ranged Lamb or Jefferson last year, but that was just a rare year in general for the position. Rashod would be a great addition that would go a long way towards getting this passing game to the level we want it at.

[SalvadorsDeli]

What do we think Bateman's draft stock is? On the PFN mock draft machine they have him ranked like 35th so he's basically always there at 27. I get the sense he's rising up draft boards in the mock draft community but there's obviously no way of knowing how much of that is true among the teams themselves. 

I'm hearing a lot of McLaurin/Keenan Allen kin of comps and that's a style of receiver we'd greatly benefit from adding to the team. I'm hoping teams fall in love with Toney's freakish athleticism and Bateman ends up behind him on draft boards (assuming we don't sign Golladay or Robinson at which point WR is not a 1st round need). 

Edited February 19, 2021 by SalvadorsDeli

[DreamKid]

6 hours ago, SalvadorsDeli said:

What do we think Bateman's draft stock is? On the PFN mock draft machine they have him ranked like 35th so he's basically always there at 27. I get the sense he's rising up draft boards in the mock draft community but there's obviously no way of knowing how much of that is true among the teams themselves. 

I don't think he makes it to our current 1st Round Pick(27). Rather than rising up boards it's more likely that his stock is just returning to normal. Dude had a monster true sophomore season that put him in Top 10 talk. The COVID affect robbed him of some shine, as it did many players in 2020, but ultimately his stock has always been high.

6 hours ago, SalvadorsDeli said:

I'm hearing a lot of McLaurin/Keenan Allen kin of comps and that's a style of receiver we'd greatly benefit from adding to the team. I'm hoping teams fall in love with Toney's freakish athleticism and Bateman ends up behind him on draft boards (assuming we don't sign Golladay or Robinson at which point WR is not a 1st round need). 

The only option I could see jumping Bateman for WR4 on some team's boards would be D'Wayne Eskridge. If he drops something crazy like a sub 4.3 40 or close to it, it's conceivable that a team would fall in love with that. 

Kardarius Toney didn't go over 300 yards receiving until his Senior year and he has some question marks off the field. I'm not expecting even elite testing numbers for his size either. Should have a great Vert and maybe a solid 3C, but I don't see the extra gears/long speed on tape that would lead me to believe he'll notch a fortune changing 40. 

I know DJ had him at 20 in his latest mock, but I wouldn't be surprised if he ended up in Late 2nd/Early 3rd territory. Analytics on him are really god awful.

The scenario where WR options that aren't great fits for us push options that are down the board, would likely come in the 2nd Round. If Kardarius Toney and Rondale Moore could push down Dyami Brown, Elijah Moore, or Terrace Marshall. I think our FO would be pretty happy.

[DreamKid]

31 minutes ago, DreamKid said:

The scenario where WR options that aren't great fits for us push options that are down the board, would likely come in the 2nd Round. If Kardarius Toney and Rondale Moore could push down Dyami Brown, Elijah Moore, or Terrace Marshall. I think our FO would be pretty happy.

Tutu Atwell is another WR that could do us some favors.

[diamondbull424]

28 minutes ago, DreamKid said:

Tutu Atwell is another WR that could do us some favors.

Looks sort of like a Hollywood Brown clone playing in a less explosive collegiate offense. He could definitely provide assistance for our offense. I was definitely impressed with what I saw from him on tape.

Obviously just doesn’t the size and high pointing ability that this team still needs. Would make for a nice day 3 double dip selection. Whether we go WR in FA or the top of the draft, having depth behind Hollywood that can be a legit deep threat is certainly a spot we need to be concerned with. We’re currently a serious Hollywood and/or Mark Andrews injury away from an absolutely dismal offense.

[DreamKid]

 

[drd23]

17 hours ago, SalvadorsDeli said:

I get the sense he's rising up draft boards in the mock draft community but there's obviously no way of knowing how much of that is true among the teams themselves. 

Interesting, because this tweet based on aggregated data from a bunch of mock drafts says the opposite

 

[drd23]

A few other WRs based on his data:

I assume Waddle and Toney are WR3 and WR4 in his data, but I don't see graphs for them that he's tweeted

[diamondbull424]

3 minutes ago, drd23 said:

Interesting, because this tweet based on aggregated data from a bunch of mock drafts says the opposite

 

Yeah, this was sort of the sense I had been feeling, but I’m also not quite as plugged in with prospect draft stock.

But just based on the mock draft simulators I had never seen Bateman falling into that pick 25 slot or later until recently. Prior to that he seems like a consistent top 22ish type selection. The later his value, the more intrigued/less nervous about him panning out- I become.

[DreamKid]

I'm starting to really really like Elijah Moore. The more you dig the more confident you become in him. If he was just two inches taller no one would argue over a Top 20 pick spent on him. Legitimately flashes AB like ability at times. SEC mega producer at a young age, catches everything, separates, YAC ability, the entire package- but he's 5'9.

I know we already have Marquise Brown(5'9) and Devin Duvernay(5'10), but I really wouldn't be mad at Elijah Moore ending up a Raven after the 2021 draft. Worst case we get a massive upgrade over Willie Snead and best case we have a shot at the next AB. And that AB could be AJ Brown as well if you tag *smaller with it. Some very similar numbers to AJB coming out of Ole Miss, both had a 10.9 ADOT, Moore had 18 forced missed tackles in his final year and Brown had 17, Moore had 3.65 YPRR and Brown had 3.10. Both were slot guys that also had success when given their shot outside.

IDK, I do think we're primarily going to be looking at bigger options like Bateman, Marshall, Brown, etc. F&ck though does Elijah Moore looked poised to be a major steal in this class.

 

Edited February 23, 2021 by DreamKid

[DreamKid]

@diamondbull424

 

[DreamKid]

Thread - Putting forth the idea that there's a sizeable difference between BOA figures at regular schools vs power house programs. Overcoming 5 Star recruits at 18/19 is always going to be harder to do than beating out your routine CFB WR.

Terrace Marshall Jr. is obviously a star of this model as he nets a full -1 by attending LSU thus changing his BOA from to 19.2 to 18.2. So he goes from an 86th to 99th percentile score.

Edited February 23, 2021 by DreamKid

[diamondbull424]

2 hours ago, DreamKid said:

Thread - Putting forth the idea that there's a sizeable difference between BOA figures at regular schools vs power house programs. Overcoming 5 Star recruits at 18/19 is always going to be harder to do than beating out your routine CFB WR.

Terrace Marshall Jr. is obviously a star of this model as he nets a full -1 by attending LSU thus changing his BOA from to 19.2 to 18.2. So he goes from an 86th to 99th percentile score.

Does he explain the timeline as to his projected model in terms of how far it dates back? The last 5 years, 10 years, 20 years, etc? If it’s closer to the last 20 seasons, then I could be made to be interested in the changes as it sounds logical enough and something we’ve sort of hinted at here ourselves, but just as something that seemed to be head canon vs some sort of actual proven science.

Either way this would, if I’m not somehow mistaken, place Kyle Pitts breakout age also at a -1 and thus would have him at a ridiculously absurd 17.9 BOA.

3 hours ago, DreamKid said:

@diamondbull424

 

I don’t know what to take from this. Like he’s not their #1 TE, but does that mean he’s not WR#2 or something. Because from that perspective, I could easily see some team grading Pitts as WR2 above DeVonta Smith- more so because of Smith’s size concerns than anything else. He’s truly a hybrid player, but if he rips off a 4.4 forty and a legitimate 3-cone/SS... he instantly puts himself into that type of conversation IMO.

Either way, it seems like, if the Ravens position themselves around that #13 pick they should be able to obtain either Pitts or Smith (barring a team trading above them, which I find a very likely possibility, hence why I don’t view #13 on as safe a plane as the #10/11 picks). I think Smith is definitely the better player currently, but Pitts isn’t incredibly far behind and his potential is so enticing that if given the choice, I’d probably trade down 1 spot to force another team to make the choice for me.- but still get “my guy”. 😂

Either way, the first domino that needs to fall is the Orlando Brown Jr trade saga. The NFL Salary Cap is probably the only thing holding things up currently.

[DreamKid]

18 minutes ago, diamondbull424 said:

Either way this would, if I’m not somehow mistaken, place Kyle Pitts breakout age also at a -1 and thus would have him at a ridiculously absurd 17.9 BOA.

He has Florida under the -0.5 category, so Pitts would end up with a 18.4 BOA. Still elite though.

20 minutes ago, diamondbull424 said:

I don’t know what to take from this. Like he’s not their #1 TE, but does that mean he’s not WR#2 or something.

All it does really is boost his value for those teams that feel he can play WR. Just another feather in his cap. I think if a team wants Kyle Pitts over guys like Ja'Marr Chase, DeVonta Smith, Jaylen Waddle, etc. They'll do it regardless of if he's WR1 or TE1 on their board.