What position do you ideally want to target in the 2021 first round?

[sp6488]

2 hours ago, Boodgyman5220 said:

I wonder if it would make sense to use the transition tag on Zeus. That way they could try to negotiate a reasonable salary and if the market isn’t as hot for him we could still match. If we do that does it effect the company pick?

Great question...

https://overthecap.com/comment-compensatory-picks-transition-tag/

Quote

 

However, I’m not so sure if the Dolphins needed to worry about rescinding the transition tag. That’s because there is precedent to suggest that transition tagged players qualify as CFAs. That precedent was from 2007, when Steve Hutchinson qualified in the aftermath of the infamous poison pill war between the Seahawks and Vikings.  However, Schefter is one of the most respected insiders in the NFL, so it bears considering if the rule on transition tagged players has changed since 2007, perhaps as part of the change to the CBA.  While I can’t say for sure, I wonder if perhaps the Dolphins inquired to the league office about what consequences their actions regarding Vernon would occur with regards to compensatory picks.

The good news is that we should get a definitive answer on this question in a few weeks–and if there’s a change, that could be even better news for the Buffalo Bills. That’s because last offseason, they signed transition tagged Charles Clay to an offer sheet that the Dolphins did not match. In my final 2016 compensatory picks projection (in which I have Clay qualifying), I did not list Buffalo as getting any picks, but did make a note that they have a very good chance to get a 6th round comp pick for CJ Spiller if Alex Carrington does not qualify.  But if Clay does not qualify, he will change the cancellation chart for the Bills even more favorably.  If Clay, with a 4th round value, is removed from the chart, it will open up a respective 4th or 5th round comp pick for Da’Norris Searcy (as he is on the bubble between the two rounds).

 

https://overthecap.com/evaluating-otcs-2016-compensatory-draft-picks-projection/

Quote

Because Charles Clay did not qualify, Buffalo got a 4th for Da’Norris Searcy.  Thankfully, due to Olivier Vernon’s recent adventures with the transition tag, this is one I was able to catch just in time.  We now know for sure that while transition tagged players once counted in the formula as recently as 2007, they no longer do. Thus, the Dolphins were indeed wise to rescind their tag on Vernon to ensure eligibility for a 3rd round comp pick for him in 2017.

Not sure if any of this has subsequently changed.

[SalvadorsDeli]

Any trade package for Stanley is likely going to have to involve multiple 1st round picks, so if we do trade him I think you basically just end up using one of our 2 2021 1st rounders on a tackle prospect and still a 1st rounder left over to invest in any of the other needs mentioned in this thread. 

If Stanley's the one who gets an extension and we approach next offseason with Zeus just having 1 more year left on his rookie year with little hope for an extension, I might still insist on a 1st round pick as compensation to trade him. You'd need the compensation to be significantly higher than the likely 3rd round comp pick we'd eventually get back for him, especially factoring in that we'd b losing a year of cost-controlled Pro Bowl production right in the middle of our championship window. 

Edited July 8, 2020 by BaltimoreTerp

[wackywabbit]

6 hours ago, drd23 said:

As much as I understand your logic and somewhat agree with it, it would be a brave move to move on from an All-Pro left tackle so that you can lock up lesser calibre players (even if those players are Pro-Bowlers)

The problem is that we have to sign Lamar and Marlon who are also all-pros at premium positions. Mandrews is a TE, and their market is team friendly for top players. So it's a question of how much different will the contract demands be for Stanley and Brown and what can we fit in. And then you have to factor in trade value. 

A similar but non-exact scenario would be the 49ers trading Buckner and keeping Armstead, even though Buckner is the better player. Our talent isn't grouped in one spot like theirs, but we will almost certainly have to make a tough choice on one of our top home grown players. My guess is that it's going to be ONE of the tackles.

[diamondbull424]

I can’t imagine the team will give up either tackle anytime soon. Would be willing to bank on the “franchise” talents on the offensive end being Lamar, Stanley, Hollywood, and Brown Jr... in that order.

I think Andrews is the guy that finds himself closer towards that bubble. TE is more replaceable, we’ve historically done a great job at replacing the position as well. I think it’s more likely that we invest in DB through the draft and move on from Earl Thomas than to leave our QB exposed to less protection. 

[Boodgyman5220]

So I guess it comes down to, would the pay more money for the better left tackle, or do they pay less for the lesser right tackle and have more money to spend elsewhere. It’s an intriguing question. 
 

Another thought, if Hollywood turns into an elite option like many think he might, and our other wife receivers make adequate strides, it would  be difficult for a franchise that has struggled to draft a plus wideout Let him leave. If Andrews continues to play really well, but get banged up and miss a couple games every year could they opt to pay Hollywood instead of him with our track record as a franchise to continuously draft and develop great TE’s.

 I can only think of two seasons when we had Dallas Clark and Another when we had Ben Watson as our best TE’s where it felt like we were average to below average.

[SalvadorsDeli]

I'd be shocked if we let Andrews walk.  He's not just a run of the mill above average TE, he's produced at a level that is historically good for his position thus far in his career, and he and Lamar have amazing chemistry. He projects as a Kelce/Gronk level player as a receiver. You don't let guys like that go. 

The hope would be that he's not always dealing with the kind of niggling injuries he had in 2019 but it's not like he wasn't a massive net positive even through those injuries last season. Even if we're assuming the offense and Lamar evolve more and bring the wide receivers into the offense more/throw more to the perimeter, it's not like those throws over the middle to TE's are going to disappear entirely. 

Trading Hurst was also a big statement to me about how highly we view Andrews. Even if Hollywood develops like we hope he does, we're likely looking at a 1a/1b situation with him and Andrews. He's on a special trajectory as a player, there's no way in hell we look at him and think he's more replaceable than a right tackle. 

[diamondbull424]

2 hours ago, BaltimoreTerp said:

I'd be shocked if we let Andrews walk.  He's not just a run of the mill above average TE, he's produced at a level that is historically good for his position thus far in his career, and he and Lamar have amazing chemistry. He projects as a Kelce/Gronk level player as a receiver. You don't let guys like that go. 

The hope would be that he's not always dealing with the kind of niggling injuries he had in 2019 but it's not like he wasn't a massive net positive even through those injuries last season. Even if we're assuming the offense and Lamar evolve more and bring the wide receivers into the offense more/throw more to the perimeter, it's not like those throws over the middle to TE's are going to disappear entirely. 

Trading Hurst was also a big statement to me about how highly we view Andrews. Even if Hollywood develops like we hope he does, we're likely looking at a 1a/1b situation with him and Andrews. He's on a special trajectory as a player, there's no way in hell we look at him and think he's more replaceable than a right tackle. 

In a vacuum maybe, but both players are pro bowl options at each position. The positional value of a RT is at worse on the same level as the positional value of a TE. Throw in the teams’ sentimental history with Orlando Brown Jr (I’m sure he’s like a nephew to many in the organization) and that would play a significant part in their willingness to not simply deal him away.

Brown Jr is also a player that is very much not focused on athleticism. His length and strength make him very likely to have far longer career longevity with the team.

While projecting for Andrews, he’s a type 1 diabetic. Nothing against that diagnosis, but at a position that already shows wear and tear second only to RB on the offensive end, the fact that Andrews has already struggled with recovery (which is consistent with type 1 athletes)... and there’s no way I’m moving on from a durable PB offensive lineman that can protect the QB, especially when the contract values for both spots will likely not be too different once the next TE gets paid. I’d expect both Andrews and OBJr to be similarly valued, considering Brown isn’t a fit for every offensive scheme, while Andrews has type 1 but is a stud. I think both are likely to be valued in that $11-13m range when their time comes.

Andrews is a stud, but would the team be far worse with a Dennis Pitta or Kyle Juszczyk (FB but plays that flex spot similar to a move TE) at the position with Lamar? Time and again we’ve found guys that can be legit threats along the inside at TE... how many PB right tackles have we had? If we let Brown walk that’s one more OL position that we have to address... considering we no longer have Yanda, I’d rather bank on the OL being consistent than one of Lamar’s weapons.

JK Dobbins IMO will start to siphon some of Andrews value over the next couple seasons anyway. I say this fully realizing that Andrews is right after Brown Jr as a franchise option so we will do everything in our power to bring them both back, but when the choice comes down to it... we will choose Brown Jr first.

[Danand]

I am always for building from the oline and then adding skill position players. I think Andrews is a luxury, but also someone we should try to extend.

I was an Orlando Brown fan from the beginning, and so far he has been so consistent from college to NFL, no injuries, puts in the work, knows how to use his frame. There is no negative thing about him besides being less athletic than smaller tackles, but how many times last year did that seem like it was an issue?

The caveat is that we have to see him play without Yanda, but nevertheless, what Brown offers as a right tackle is not something that will disappear as he gets older. His play doesn't rely on being super athletic, but rather being smart with his movement and use his size to his advantage.

Along with Marlon Humphrey, Orlando Brown is one of our young guys I am most intrigued with and least concerned about long term.

[SalvadorsDeli]

1 hour ago, diamondbull424 said:

Andrews is a stud, but would the team be far worse with a Dennis Pitta or Kyle Juszczyk (FB but plays that flex spot similar to a move TE) at the position with Lamar? Time and again we’ve found guys that can be legit threats along the inside at TE... how many PB right tackles have we had? If we let Brown walk that’s one more OL position that we have to address... considering we no longer have Yanda, I’d rather bank on the OL being consistent than one of Lamar’s weapons.

I think some of this just comes down to a difference in evaluation on Andrews, because the answer is easily yes to me on that question. Andrews is one of the best slot receivers in the league (and I'm not just talking about among TE's) - he led the NFL in yards-per-route from the slot by a comically large margin last year. He also offers us a big play threat at TE that very few players in the league can replicate (2nd among TE's in average depth of target at 10.8 yards). Nothing about what he does for our offense is of a dime a dozen variety. And in terms of being a fit in our offense whose QB likes throwing it down the middle to this TE's and wants to punish teams who stack the box with chunk passing plays, you couldn't ask for a better target for Lamar than Andrews. Prime Pitta might be able to replicate a lot of the intermediate stuff Andrews offers but he wasn't as explosive a deep threat. And Dennis Pitta's don't grow on trees either! Jusyczk wouldn't replace anything that Andrews offers, he'd be a supercharged version of Boyle or Ricard though. 

In fact, factoring in age, there's probably no TE other than Kittle who is a better fit for this offense for the next 5-7 years running as Lamar's wingman than Andrews is. 

And in any case, I think the Pitta example is a good one in terms of how people are really overstating how easy it is to just plug in new TE's. Joe and Pitta had a similar kind of chemistry/connection that Andrews and Lamar did. And we saw how badly things fell apart for Flacco when Pitta's career got derailed by injury. We spent several years trying to fill his void through veteran FA signings and relatively high draft picks on guys like Maxx Williams and Crockett Gilmore.... and none of it worked. We didn't actually solve our problem at TE until we drafted Andrews (and Hurst, though Andrews being as good as he is made him expendable). If we nuke our TE corps, our offense is going to suffer. 

As frustrating as the injury issues were for Andrews last year we haven't seen enough yet to actually know whether that's going to be a consistent thing. NFL seasons are short, sometimes it just happens that you pick up an injury and because you can't fully rehab in-season like you'd like, you end up carrying it for the rest of that season. If it happens again with Andrews this season and the next that's one thing, but it's strange to me to hear everyone talking about Andrews as a walking injury even as this sub has also basically been fast-tracking Hollywood for Canton when he's a 5'9 receiver with a much more serious injury history. 

The other thing I'll say here is that to me is just the cause and effect here in terms of who is offering the most value to our offense. Our offensive line is getting a lot of hype for blocking for Lamar, justifiably so, but they're being set up to succeed. I firmly believe Lamar makes life easier for our offensive line, and in that sense, he's helping make Zeus look better than he is. Andrews, on the other hand, is a receiver who helps elevate Lamar. Tossing aside our elite QB's favorite target would be  foolish IMO. 

Edited July 9, 2020 by BaltimoreTerp

[wackywabbit]

19 hours ago, diamondbull424 said:

I think Andrews is the guy that finds himself closer towards that bubble. TE is more replaceable, we’ve historically done a great job at replacing the position as well. 

Andrews will likely have half of the cap hit of Stanley and be much cheaper than Brown too. Saving money by the letting TE go does the least to help the problem of having to pay the Lamar/Stanley/Humphrey/Andrews/Brown group. Because of that and the Hurst trade Andrews is the guy I am most certain we will not move. Outside Lamar of course. With the Hurst trade, the decision to resign Andrews (barring catostrophic injury) has already been made, IMO. Otherwise we would have kept Hurst through year 5 at least.

Decosta is well aware of the positional economics. I couldn't find the quote with a couple minutes of search effort, but I definitely remember him (or Ozzie) pointing out that one of the factors that went into the Hurst over Calvin Ridley decision was that it was much cheaper to keep a TE on a second contract than a WR if they hit. Obviously we substituted Andrews into the Hayden Hurst role in that plan now.

Side note: just remembered Ridley and Hurst are teammates now.

Edited July 9, 2020 by wackywabbit

[wackywabbit]

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/rankings/average/

Just throwing some wild guesses out there. Keep in mind this is for a negotiation 1-2 years into the future, with general assumptions of the world being normal.

Highest paid QB by AAV: 45M
Lamar's asking price: 40M

Highest paid LT by AAV: 22M
Stanley's asking price (after getting the tag slapped on him): 23M

Highest paid CB by AAV: 16.68M (it's Darius Slay, no TOP guy has gotten paid super recently)
Marlon Humphrey's asking price: 19M

Highest paid RT by AAV: 18M
Orlando Brown's asking price: 18M

Highest paid TE by AAV: 10.6M (pre-Kittle deal)
Mark Andrews' asking price: 12M

 

That's be a total of 112M for those 5. Even with clever balancing and spreading out of cap hits, I am 85% sure we need to move one of those top 4.

Edited July 9, 2020 by wackywabbit

[sp6488]

3 hours ago, wackywabbit said:

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/rankings/average/

Just throwing some wild guesses out there. Keep in mind this is for a negotiation 1-2 years into the future, with general assumptions of the world being normal.

Highest paid QB by AAV: 45M
Lamar's asking price: 40M

Highest paid LT by AAV: 22M
Stanley's asking price (after getting the tag slapped on him): 23M

Highest paid CB by AAV: 16.68M (it's Darius Slay, no TOP guy has gotten paid super recently)
Marlon Humphrey's asking price: 19M

Highest paid RT by AAV: 18M
Orlando Brown's asking price: 18M

Highest paid TE by AAV: 10.6M (pre-Kittle deal)
Mark Andrews' asking price: 12M

 

That's be a total of 112M for those 5. Even with clever balancing and spreading out of cap hits, I am 85% sure we need to move one of those top 4.

Don't forget it will likely take a few years to reach the AAV as a cap hit for those deals (because of bonus proration). Doesn't invalidate your point, but it's worth noting.

[berlin calling]

feels good to discuss the luxury of having several pro bowl players in important positions reach the end of their rookie contracts and who to extend for once.

haven't had that with this team at least as long as i am following them to this extent.

 

[diamondbull424]

On 7/9/2020 at 4:02 PM, wackywabbit said:

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/rankings/average/

Just throwing some wild guesses out there. Keep in mind this is for a negotiation 1-2 years into the future, with general assumptions of the world being normal.

Highest paid QB by AAV: 45M
Lamar's asking price: 40M

Highest paid LT by AAV: 22M
Stanley's asking price (after getting the tag slapped on him): 23M

Highest paid CB by AAV: 16.68M (it's Darius Slay, no TOP guy has gotten paid super recently)
Marlon Humphrey's asking price: 19M

Highest paid RT by AAV: 18M
Orlando Brown's asking price: 18M

Highest paid TE by AAV: 10.6M (pre-Kittle deal)
Mark Andrews' asking price: 12M

 

That's be a total of 112M for those 5. Even with clever balancing and spreading out of cap hits, I am 85% sure we need to move one of those top 4.

Disagree on this assessment. Look again at the top 5-10 paid players at each position.

Right Tackle
1. Lane Johnson- $18m (2019)
2. Trent Brown- $16.5m (2019)
3. Jack Conklin- $14m (2020)
4. Juwaun James- $12.75m (2020)
5. Mitchell Schwartz- $11.25m (2019)
6. Bryan Bulaga- $10m (2020)
7. La’El Collins- $10m (2019)

* Lane Johnson was the succession plan at LT and was an All Pro talent at RT, which got him paid extra. Johnson said as much in an interview from 2020.

What’s more while Trent Brown plays RT, he also has shown that he can play LT for the Patriots at a high capacity, which is what got him paid. His position flexibility earnEd him additional dollars.

Conklin is the highest paid Right Tackle that hasn’t shown Left Tackle flexibility. He’s the true starting precedent for the positional pay. Removing the “outliers” the top 5 at the position are making between $10-14m. These are all recent deals and I wouldn’t expect Brown to fall outside of the recent contract trends for the position; Brown is a true RT who had one of the worst combines in NFL history in terms of athletics. He’s not going to be viewed as scheme flexible or side flexible as someone like Lane Johnson to command anything in the realm of that $18m deal. What’s more as we’ll discover later, even Lane Johnson isn’t likely to see that money. He’s only got 6.25m AGPY while Conklin got $6.7m AGPY. Johnson’s deal is for the record books only, the Eagles have outs in that deal in the next few years that will have him see drastically less. All that truly matters is his fully guaranteed cash for that reason.

Tight End
1. Hunter Henry- $10.6m (2020- tag)
2. Austin Hooper- $10.5m (2020)
3. Travis Kelce- $9.4m (2016)
4. Kyle Rudolph- $9m (2019)
5. Rob Gronkowski- $9m (2012)
6. Zach Ertz- $8.5m (2016)
7. Jimmy Graham- $8m (2020)
8. Jared Cook- $7.5m (2019)
9. Darren Waller- $7.5m (2019)
10. Tyler Higbee- 7.3m (2019)

* There literally hasn’t been a stud tight end that has hit the market since 2016, everyone else has been past their prime options or average to above average options. The current expectations for Kittles’ deal that resets the market is that of a top 10 WR due to him being possessed of similar receiving production and being an elite blocker. That would be a deal worth roughly $17m/season. If Kittle gets paid something in that tier, Henry could see something in that $14m range as the next up, and thus Andrews would likely be somewhere around $17m on the high end. On the low end of this scale, he would receive AT LEAST 12m as you’ve projected. With a “realistic” landing spot being somewhere around $15m.

Honestly I hadn’t paid as much attention to the new deals around the league for those positions until this difference of opinion, but after looking it over... I could easily see Andrews, who has no reason to be loyal to the Ravens franchise for a “hometown” discount, asking for something closer to $15m. While Brown Jr will likely be negotiating with the deal that Conklin just got. Lane Johnson at the time was the highest paid TACKLE, not just right tackle because of his elite athleticism and flexibility. These again are completely not comparable scenarios so Conklin will be the target. Meaning Brown likely also finds himself in that $15m range.

Lastly while I leave the possibility for Stanley to ask for $23m open, I think unless another OT similarly gets another deal of that magnitude (or close to it) that will be looked at as an outlier due to the unnatural negotiation leverage Laremy Tunsil found himself within after that boneheaded trade. Thus more likely the team will see the Lane Johnson deal as the negotiation precedent while Stanley’s representative will argue the Tunsil deal. So let’s breakdown both “record” deals.

Lane Johnson- 4 years, $72m, $25m fully guaranteed; $18m APY, $6.25m AGPY (2019)

Laremy Tunsil- 3 years, $66m, $40m fully guaranteed; $22m APY, $13.3m AGPY (2020)

So to give Stanley clout they have two options, they can give him a shorter deal, likely 4 years where he breaks the AGPY record with something closer to $13.5m per year fully guaranteed at signing... OR they could perhaps more realistically go for the years and make him the first OT to be paid over $100m. This will likely be the true negotiation battleground. But in both scenarios I see Stanley closer to roughly $18.5-19m/year.

So I see two possible deals, otherwise the team decides to trade Stanley for capital... though I see a much higher chance Stanley settles on one of these two options:

6 years, $115m, $60m fully guaranteed at signing; $19.16m APY, $10m AGPY

OR

4 years, $75m, $54m fully guaranteed at signing; 18.75m APY, $13.5m AGPY

In both scenarios Stanley in some way or another “sets the market” as the premier player at his position. The first concentrates on bulk numbers and the second would be on average guaranteed cash allotted. FWIW, I see option 1 as the deal most likely for both Stanley to want and the team. Earns more cash and locks him up in one destination long term. The team can also more easily spread his guaranteed cash in the most fiscally responsible manner to keep the team most competitive. Stanley gets more money guaranteed upfront than his predecessors and the team can use Stanley as a restructure candidate if more cap is needed in future seasons.

Edited July 11, 2020 by diamondbull424

[sp6488]

1 hour ago, diamondbull424 said:

 

Lastly while I leave the possibility for Stanley to ask for $23m open, I think unless another OT similarly gets another deal of that magnitude (or close to it) that will be looked at as an outlier due to the unnatural negotiation leverage Laremy Tunsil found himself within after that boneheaded trade. Thus more likely the team will see the Lane Johnson deal as the negotiation precedent while Stanley’s representative will argue the Tunsil deal. So let’s breakdown both “record” deals.

Lane Johnson- 4 years, $72m, $25m fully guaranteed; $18m APY, $6.25m AGPY (2019)

Laremy Tunsil- 3 years, $66m, $40m fully guaranteed; $22m APY, $13.3m AGPY (2020)

So to give Stanley clout they have two options, they can give him a shorter deal, likely 4 years where he breaks the AGPY record with something closer to $13.5m per year fully guaranteed at signing... OR they could perhaps more realistically go for the years and make him the first OT to be paid over $100m. This will likely be the true negotiation battleground. But in both scenarios I see Stanley closer to roughly $18.5-19m/year.

So I see two possible deals, otherwise the team decides to trade Stanley for capital... though I see a much higher chance Stanley settles on one of these two options:

6 years, $115m, $60m fully guaranteed at signing; $19.16m APY, $10m AGPY

OR

4 years, $75m, $54m fully guaranteed at signing; 18.75m APY, $13.5m AGPY

In both scenarios Stanley in some way or another “sets the market” as the premier player at his position. The first concentrates on bulk numbers and the second would be on average guaranteed cash allotted. FWIW, I see option 1 as the deal most likely for both Stanley to want and the team. Earns more cash and locks him up in one destination long term. The team can also more easily spread his guaranteed cash in the most fiscally responsible manner to keep the team most competitive. Stanley gets more money guaranteed upfront than his predecessors and the team can use Stanley as a restructure candidate if more cap is needed in future seasons.

I'm with you. I think all the freak outs over the AAV of Tunsil's deal neglects that it's only three years and even though the guarantee percentage is high, percentages don't pay bills, total dollars do. Something like option 1 above still gives Stanley the biggest deal for a LT ever and would pay him far more if both he and Tunsil were to get injured/cut on day 2 of their respective deals and never play football again.