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What team unexpectedly collapses this year


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26 minutes ago, Daniel said:

Packers seem ripe for regression, at least, because they exceeded expectations last season and **** the bed during the draft.  They make a lot of sense.

If you were to go back and read my posts,  I've clearly stated they overachieved last year.....They had close games against Detroit twice and Washington....I believe the Mahome-less Chiefs also made them work for a win (and with a QB who had been out of the league for years)....This and GB will have a tougher schedule to hoe his year (if applicable)...

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4 hours ago, 40Year Pack Fan said:

To be honest, what concerns me far more than the lack of pass catchers added is the lack of DL additions.

 

On the pass catcher front, I think Lazard will continue on towards being a good 50 catch, 700yd kind of guy who also brings a lot of physicality and blocking. There is also Equinameous St. Brown who sneakily was a pretty big loss last year in my opinion, after a slow start he was beginning to look very promising in his rookie year, and Sternberger somewhat too who I was impressed with in the playoffs. Can't complain about injuries as we were lucky there last year, but I wouldn't be surprised to see those two fill a good bit of the void that was there. Then there's Funchess who's hardly a superstar but has shown he can be a 50-60 catch guy, and MVS/Kumerov. The former has huge flaws and I doubt will ever be more than a 30-40 catch player but still pulls off some big plays in the year, and the latter of which has a very low ceiling but whom I think is a very safe and rounded player to have 5th or 6th on the depth chart, while Tyler Ervin showed some skills last year too, I don't know much a out Deguera at TE though he is a blocking te much like Marcedes Lewis. And obviously there's Davante Adams. 

We've also bolstered ourselves to be set up to run the ball more this year, if AJ Dillon hits our RB trip could rival almost any in the league. Offense definitely has question marks, but could and hopefully should be more fluid and efficient than last season where we were 15th-17th in just about every meaningful stat outside of rushing TDs and penalties (8th best in each). Also 2nd lowest for picks, but that's kind of a given with Rodgers. 

I like our pass defense too, but we basically stayed still at ILB where Kirksey could prove a better fit than Martinez but also has considerable injury issues, and our depth is far from great. If love works out long term then taking him was definitely the right call, but man it hurts to have passed on Patrick Queen (a d Jordyn Brooks) like that, especially to see them picked up by two teams with a good eye for LBers immediately after. 

On the DL Clark is a superstar and Zadarius is great when plugged in for passing situations, but after that we're lacking. I actually like Lancaster and Lowry but as guys to rotate in a bit during a game, definitely not as starters. There's some hype around Kingsley but hype is only hype until its fulfilled. Someone like Snacks or Clowney could make a world of difference here in my opinion on top of playing heavier, but if we don't pick anyone up in very worried about the quite simple to emulate, incredibly effective blueprint the 49ers put up last year against us. 

 

Tldr: DL/ILB if anything will be our undoing. A signing at DL especially would be a huge bonus, we may be in trouble defe aivwky/against the run without one. WR/TE I'm not too worried about, our running game should be even better, and if anything I expect a fair but of improvement on offense in general. I doubt we're as fortunate again with injuries though. 

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1 hour ago, Billy86 said:

To be honest, what concerns me far more than the lack of pass catchers added is the lack of DL additions.

 

On the pass catcher front, I think Lazard will continue on towards being a good 50 catch, 700yd kind of guy who also brings a lot of physicality and blocking. There is also Equinameous St. Brown who sneakily was a pretty big loss last year in my opinion, after a slow start he was beginning to look very promising in his rookie year, and Sternberger somewhat too who I was impressed with in the playoffs. Can't complain about injuries as we were lucky there last year, but I wouldn't be surprised to see those two fill a good bit of the void that was there. Then there's Funchess who's hardly a superstar but has shown he can be a 50-60 catch guy, and MVS/Kumerov. The former has huge flaws and I doubt will ever be more than a 30-40 catch player but still pulls off some big plays in the year, and the latter of which has a very low ceiling but whom I think is a very safe and rounded player to have 5th or 6th on the depth chart, while Tyler Ervin showed some skills last year too, I don't know much a out Deguera at TE though he is a blocking te much like Marcedes Lewis. And obviously there's Davante Adams. 

We've also bolstered ourselves to be set up to run the ball more this year, if AJ Dillon hits our RB trip could rival almost any in the league. Offense definitely has question marks, but could and hopefully should be more fluid and efficient than last season where we were 15th-17th in just about every meaningful stat outside of rushing TDs and penalties (8th best in each). Also 2nd lowest for picks, but that's kind of a given with Rodgers. 

I like our pass defense too, but we basically stayed still at ILB where Kirksey could prove a better fit than Martinez but also has considerable injury issues, and our depth is far from great. If love works out long term then taking him was definitely the right call, but man it hurts to have passed on Patrick Queen (a d Jordyn Brooks) like that, especially to see them picked up by two teams with a good eye for LBers immediately after. 

On the DL Clark is a superstar and Zadarius is great when plugged in for passing situations, but after that we're lacking. I actually like Lancaster and Lowry but as guys to rotate in a bit during a game, definitely not as starters. There's some hype around Kingsley but hype is only hype until its fulfilled. Someone like Snacks or Clowney could make a world of difference here in my opinion on top of playing heavier, but if we don't pick anyone up in very worried about the quite simple to emulate, incredibly effective blueprint the 49ers put up last year against us. 

 

Tldr: DL/ILB if anything will be our undoing. A signing at DL especially would be a huge bonus, we may be in trouble defe aivwky/against the run without one. WR/TE I'm not too worried about, our running game should be even better, and if anything I expect a fair but of improvement on offense in general. I doubt we're as fortunate again with injuries though. 

One hopes GB can further develop their running game as to keep defenses more off balance....If memory serves me correctly last year we still struggled at times in this area....And how much of an effect is losing Bulaga going to have on furthering our running game?....I have to believe defenses will still continue to focus on Rodgers....Stuff the run game, pressuring Rodgers with the hopes of taking him out of his rhythm....

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3 minutes ago, 40Year Pack Fan said:

One hopes GB can further develop their running game as to keep defenses more off balance....If memory serves me correctly last year we still struggled at times in this area....And how much of an effect is losing Bulaga going to have on furthering our running game?....I have to believe defenses will still continue to focus on Rodgers....Stuff the run game, pressuring Rodgers with the hopes of taking him out of his rhythm....

I guess that depends on Wagner to an extent. Though you're right, I remember looking over the play by plays of MMS last few seasons about something else a while back, and couldn't help but notice just how little we ran the ball outside of first drives of halves. 

Now everyone knew we were very pass heavy (way too pass heavy, every GB fan knew AJ was a special RB from his rookie year yet he remained underused), but very often we would have like 6 run plays for the entire game when you removed scrambles and our opening drive of each half (which we'd often have 4-6 carries in each of). 

It was clear that coordinators noticed that too, and the perception may need some further shaking still. On the other hand, it gives us an opportunity to punish them if they don't. 

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On 7/24/2020 at 12:59 PM, Shanedorf said:

No kidding -  and the national media and public opinion are all piling on that one.
I can certainly see a regression from 14 down to 10 or 11 wins, but there's really no legit reason to expect a collapse except for the fantasy-driven narrative:
" But they didn't draft a WR !!!" 

Sweeping the division is a hell of an accomplishment and attributing that to luck is kinda silly - same with getting to the NFC-CG.
So be it, I'm often reminded that the masses are assses and you can profit handsomely by going in the opposite direction.

There's plenty of legit reasons to expect the Packers to collapse.  They played closer to a 9-10 win team last year than they did a 13 win team. 

When you watched teams like the Patriots, Ravens, Chiefs, Saints, and 49ers all of them looked like legit 12-13 win teams because all of them were dominant in atleast one phase of the game and it showed.

The Packers didn't have that. Both the offense and defense were inconsistent throughout the season and they haven't done anything worth of note to improve it.  The run game was the only part that remained consistent. 

They poured all of that money and resources into defense last offseason and they were still getting torched on the ground, just like before. 

And since you brought up luck and sweeping the division, let's not forget why......

 

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On 7/24/2020 at 10:12 AM, Forge said:

I mean, he did help the team get to the super bowl, so the super bowl caliber part is fine. Super bowl winning caliber is still up for debate, but people know that can be fairly random; Marino couldn't do it but Nick Foles could. 

Overpaid? Meh. The only thing he's really that high in is total value of the deal (4th), but as we know, that doesn't really mean anything in the NFL. He's 12th in AAV, I believe, and 12th in total guarantees. His cap hit is about right for what he brings to the table. 

Also, I have no idea why he's a BB system quarterback. Shouldn't he be a Shanny system quarterback (the answer is yes)? More to that point, for that purpose, I would totally just recycle underpaid and rookie deal quarterbacks under Shanny and see if I can continue to keep a fairly efficient offense without putting typical quarterback money into it. There are a few coaches that could do that with some degree of success (or at least enough projected success that they could take the shot) so if I were the niners I would totally do it. 

I do agree that most people would think that if the team wins the super bowl, its probably going to be Shanny getting more of the credit than Jimmy G, I have no problem thinking that will be the case. Though on one hand, it's important to remember that last year was legitimately his first full season of playing in the NFL, so there is a possibility of improvement, though I'm not bullish on it. 

i feel you. nice points made. But yeah i attribute most any success the Niners have to Shanny and very little to Jimmy.

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