TheRealMcCoy Posted August 15, 2020 Share Posted August 15, 2020 (edited) Eagles..... but in 2021 Edited August 15, 2020 by TheRealMcCoy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
diamondbull424 Posted August 15, 2020 Share Posted August 15, 2020 Going to go with the Bucs. Enough have them as a SB contender, they have quality betting odds for it. I think they’re going to miss the playoffs. Conversely I think the Pats once again win their division and make the playoffs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VigilantZombie Posted August 15, 2020 Share Posted August 15, 2020 18 hours ago, 40Year Pack Fan said: Sounds like you're buying into GB being a legitimate 13-3 team last year.... They were the best team in their division Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hunter2_1 Posted August 16, 2020 Share Posted August 16, 2020 (edited) Look for stats that a team benefitted from and will probably expect a regression toward mean I'm talking fumbles against, strength of schedule, key player had a career year...etc. Does anyone have those kind of stats? Edit: Seen Cowherd (I know...lol) says Buffalo had an easy schedule last year and will face a tougher one + apparently the teams faced has loads of fumbles. Not sure if true and I don't expect BUF to collapse at all, but I guess the rationale makes sense Edited August 16, 2020 by Hunter2_1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe_is_the_best Posted August 16, 2020 Share Posted August 16, 2020 2 hours ago, Hunter2_1 said: Look for stats that a team benefitted from and will probably expect a regression toward mean One such stat is pythagorean wins. If we compare it to actual wins, these are the teams whose record was inflated: Team Wins Expected Wins Difference GB 13 9.8 -3.2 SEA 11 8.2 -2.8 HOU 10 7.8 -2.2 NO 13 10.9 -2.1 OAK 7 5.2 -1.8 NYJ 7 5.6 -1.4 MIA 5 3.6 -1.4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deadpulse Posted August 16, 2020 Share Posted August 16, 2020 19 minutes ago, Joe_is_the_best said: One such stat is pythagorean wins. If we compare it to actual wins, these are the teams whose record was inflated: Team Wins Expected Wins Difference GB 13 9.8 -3.2 SEA 11 8.2 -2.8 HOU 10 7.8 -2.2 NO 13 10.9 -2.1 OAK 7 5.2 -1.8 NYJ 7 5.6 -1.4 MIA 5 3.6 -1.4 Out of those three, I would say NO would be the most likely to dip. Brees is a year older (despite showing little decline thus far) with a much less insurance policy without any big additions this offseason. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soko Posted August 16, 2020 Share Posted August 16, 2020 2 hours ago, Hunter2_1 said: Look for stats that a team benefitted from and will probably expect a regression toward mean I'm talking fumbles against, strength of schedule, key player had a career year...etc. Does anyone have those kind of stats? Edit: Seen Cowherd (I know...lol) says Buffalo had an easy schedule last year and will face a tougher one + apparently the teams faced has loads of fumbles. Not sure if true and I don't expect BUF to collapse at all, but I guess the rationale makes sense Allen fumbled a lot, like 14 times and only lost, I want to say 2? Something minuscule like that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oregon Ducks Posted August 16, 2020 Share Posted August 16, 2020 Chiefs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted August 16, 2020 Share Posted August 16, 2020 4 hours ago, Hunter2_1 said: Look for stats that a team benefitted from and will probably expect a regression toward mean I'm talking fumbles against, strength of schedule, key player had a career year...etc. Does anyone have those kind of stats? Edit: Seen Cowherd (I know...lol) says Buffalo had an easy schedule last year and will face a tougher one + apparently the teams faced has loads of fumbles. Not sure if true and I don't expect BUF to collapse at all, but I guess the rationale makes sense I'd recommend reading Bill Barnwell's articles on regression / improvement teams, listening to his podcasts covering that. I'm not sure what all stats that he uses to make his judgments, but he's been very accurate with his calls in the past. They mentioned his record in one of the recent podcasts with Mina Kimes. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkippyX Posted August 16, 2020 Share Posted August 16, 2020 On 8/14/2020 at 8:40 PM, TheRealMcCoy said: Eagles..... but in 2021 That... HURTS! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRealMcCoy Posted August 16, 2020 Share Posted August 16, 2020 Just now, SkippyX said: On 8/14/2020 at 6:40 PM, TheRealMcCoy said: Eagles..... but in 2021 That... HURTS! Just mentally preparing myself. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oregon Ducks Posted August 16, 2020 Share Posted August 16, 2020 On 8/14/2020 at 6:40 PM, TheRealMcCoy said: Eagles..... but in 2021 He said “unexpectedly “ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBreezy Posted August 16, 2020 Share Posted August 16, 2020 On 8/14/2020 at 8:53 PM, Joe_is_the_best said: The Cowboys. They’ve added a bunch of names. Names don’t always translate to success. It would certainly be unexpected. I like you're line of thinking, but they were incredibly mediocre last year so I'm not sure there's much to collapse from lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkippyX Posted August 16, 2020 Share Posted August 16, 2020 If you go by Barnwell metrics then its probably the Seahawks. They were only +30 (8.2 expected wins) They were 10-2 in one score games. Their SOS was a very good 136-120 (.531) but it was top heavy. They were 1-3 against the 13 or 14 win teams that boosted their SOS. They were 10-2 against a schedule with an SOS of 83-109(.432) They were also 3-3 against their division Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkippyX Posted August 16, 2020 Share Posted August 16, 2020 Texans Maybe? They were -7 (7.8 expected wins) 8-3 in one score games Good SOS though 133-127 (.520) They were 2-2 against the 12+ win teams on their schedule Intangibles: Their coach is insanely bad. They traded their best weapon Their offense is relying on people who are constantly hurt. (Cooks head, Fuller's legs) or a huge question mark (David Johnson) JJ Watt has missed half of the teams games over the last 4 years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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