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What team unexpectedly collapses this year


patriotsheatyan

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22 hours ago, LeonKennedy said:

How the hell do people mistake Mahomes for the kind of player who's only in it for the hustle? His contract is the richest in sports history and yet even though he had all the leverage to do so he's probably never actually going to be the top paid player in the league at any point over his career because he knows better than to throw his teammates under the bus for instant gratification. A big part of why he's been so scary to me as a divisional opponent is that he always seemed more likely than not to be the kind of guy who would take a pay cut for the sake of the team, now i'm possibly staring down 20 more regular season losses over the next decade to remind me that I was right.

When two people—well, when two siblings fall in love, they get together and have babies. And then 9 months later, @Bearerofnews happens. And that’s how you come to said conclusions. 

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Just now, MonserinNC said:

I get you're a fan but you guys totally maxed out every position. Nick Bosa basically had the greatest rookie season ever, a sort of no name OL had a great year, Emmanuel Sanders dominated, Sherman turned back time, and a group of DL's who had been together for a while all of a sudden became the best in the league.

Like I said, I get you're a fan but its not really hard to understand you guys caught lighting in a bottle last year. I dont mean that as an insult, I save my hate for the Packers haha

Trust me, I've damn near always realistic with the team. What I said has nothing to do with being a homer, just reality.

A no name OL had a great year? I mean I certainly wouldn't call them having a great year last season. They are average to below average in pass protection and were good in run blocking. But Kittle/Juice helped the run game immensely and it was not nearly the same when those two were injured.

Emmanuel Sanders dominated? In 10 games in the regular season he had 502 yards. That is dominating? Don't get me wrong, he was valuable and the passing game was much better after he arrived. But that is considered dominating now? 

A group of DL that all of a sudden became the best in the league? Huh? You don't think that had to do with the additions of Bosa and Ford? Everyone expected the DL to be dominant as all anyone ever mentioned was how the DL consists of five first rounders! The DL was always good in the interior, just had no edge rushers at all and that changed with getting Bosa/Ford. 

Again, mind you the dominant season happened while ranking among the worst in the league in injury luck. Luckily, the team got healthy at the right time just before the playoffs. 

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3 minutes ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

Trust me, I've damn near always realistic with the team. What I said has nothing to do with being a homer, just reality.

A no name OL had a great year? I mean I certainly wouldn't call them having a great year last season. They are average to below average in pass protection and were good in run blocking. But Kittle/Juice helped the run game immensely and it was not nearly the same when those two were injured.

Emmanuel Sanders dominated? In 10 games in the regular season he had 502 yards. That is dominating? Don't get me wrong, he was valuable and the passing game was much better after he arrived. But that is considered dominating now? 

A group of DL that all of a sudden became the best in the league? Huh? You don't think that had to do with the additions of Bosa and Ford? Everyone expected the DL to be dominant as all anyone ever mentioned was how the DL consists of five first rounders! The DL was always good in the interior, just had no edge rushers at all and that changed with getting Bosa/Ford. 

Again, mind you the dominant season happened while ranking among the worst in the league in injury luck. Luckily, the team got healthy at the right time just before the playoffs. 

Haha, fair enough, Im in Chicago so Im not gonna act like I know the 49ers super well.

Maybe, "Got hot at the right time" is a better description

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3 hours ago, MonserinNC said:

Nick Bosa basically had the greatest rookie season ever,

What? Holy hyperbole, batman. I'm not even sure that it was the best defensive player rookie season for the 49ers in the last decade. I mean, he was great, don't get me wrong, but if anything, I'd expect some positive regression with regards to his sack numbers based on his pressures / hits. He falls down a lot

3 hours ago, MonserinNC said:

a sort of no name OL had a great year,, 

But they didn't? They weren't particularly great at all. They had one of the lowest pass block win rates in the NFL. They were 15th in the NFL in adjusted sack rate, and for as good of a team as they are in run blocking, they are also wildly inconsistent, which is why they manage to only be 12th in rushing offense dvoa. The scheme and Jimmy's release mask a lot of flaws with the team in the passing offense. 

I'd also argue the "no name" offensive line which included a borderline hall of famer in Joe Staley, a recent top 10 pick in Mike McG, and Weston Richburg, who has been known for years. Laken Tomlinson is a former first round pick. If anything, I'd say the line under performs compared to the "value" of their names, though in fairness they did have some injuries throughout the season. 

 

3 hours ago, MonserinNC said:

Emmanuel Sanders dominated

Seriously, where are you getting this? He played 10 regular season  games with the 49ers. In 7 of those games, he had less than 50 yards receiving. In 5 of those 10, he had 25 yards or less. Seriously, half the games he played, he had 25 yards or less. How is that dominating? In 3 playoff games, he had 5 catches for 70 yards. He had two big games (most notably the one against New Orleans, which was just a barn burner) 

3 hours ago, MonserinNC said:

Sherman turned back time,

Yeah, I expect regression here. How much, it's hard to say. 

3 hours ago, MonserinNC said:

a group of DL's who had been together for a while all of a sudden became the best in the league

They did add some pivotal pieces in Dee Ford and Nick Bosa, which is kind of important. 

 

Like, I'm good with them as a regression candidate (I have them regressing myself, in both total wins and playoffs), but a lot of what you are saying here isn't really true while also discounting things like injuries which would hopefully regress in a positive way for the niners. 

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4 minutes ago, Forge said:

What? Holy hyperbole, batman. I'm not even sure that it was the best defensive player rookie season for the 49ers in the last decade. I mean, he was great, don't get me wrong, but if anything, I'd expect some positive regression with regards to his sack numbers based on his pressures / hits. He falls down a lot

But they didn't? They weren't particularly great at all. They had one of the lowest pass block win rates in the NFL. They were 15th in the NFL in adjusted sack rate, and for as good of a team as they are in run blocking, they are also wildly inconsistent, which is why they manage to only be 12th in rushing offense dvoa. The scheme and Jimmy's release mask a lot of flaws with the team in the passing offense. 

I'd also argue the "no name" offensive line which included a borderline hall of famer in Joe Staley, a recent top 10 pick in Mike McG, and Weston Richburg, who has been known for years. Laken Tomlinson is a former first round pick. If anything, I'd say the line under performs compared to the "value" of their names, though in fairness they did have some injuries throughout the season. 

 

Seriously, where are you getting this? He played 10 regular season  games with the 49ers. In 7 of those games, he had less than 50 yards receiving. In 5 of those 10, he had 25 yards or less. Seriously, half the games he played, he had 25 yards or less. How is that dominating? In 3 playoff games, he had 5 catches for 70 yards. He had two big games (most notably the one against New Orleans, which was just a barn burner) 

Yeah, I expect regression here. How much, it's hard to say. 

They did add some pivotal pieces in Dee Ford and Nick Bosa, which is kind of important. 

 

Like, I'm good with them as a regression candidate (I have them regressing myself, in both total wins and playoffs), but a lot of what you are saying here isn't really true while also discounting things like injuries which would hopefully regress in a positive way for the niners. 

Well crap, @J-ALL-DAY  already said all this. Please feel free to ignore

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Chiefs are going 3-13. You guys getting emotional isnt changing that. 3-13 lock that in. The fall will be greater than the rise.  I mean no ill will. What ive noticed is my predictions are always a year too early.  Literally ALWAYS. So look for Dolphins to go 11-5 this year.

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Probably Tampa Bay.  

Brady needs Belichick and Belichick needs Brady.  He doesn't have McDaniels either.  

I can't see Brady pulling off the same kind of success in Tampa that he did in New England.  

And, Gronk has been out of the league for a year.  You just can't pick up where you left off after being out of the league for that amount of time.  

They don't have much of a defense either.  

Edited by RamblinMan99
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2 minutes ago, RamblinMan99 said:

Probably Tampa Bay.  

Brady needs Belichick and Belichick needs Brady.  He doesn't have McDaniels either.  

I can't see Brady pulling off the same kind of success in Tampa that he did in New England.  

And, Gronk has been out of the league for a year.  You just can't pick up where you left off after being out of the league for that amount of time.  

They don't have much of a defense either.  

So much of this is factually incorrect. Brady needing BB is up for debate but BB does not need Brady. He won 11 games with Matt freaking Cassel at QB. He won 3 out of 4 with first time starter Jimmy G and ultra green and never amounted to much rookie Jocoby Brissett. Also Brady does not need McD, he was plenty successful before him and after him despite him returning. 

Gronk being out of the league and picking up where he left off has also proven to be false. He missed an enitre year of action and returned to dominant form. Yes, the circumstance was different as it was due to injury but I would argue he'd be more ready to return now as he wasnt rehabbing he was simply resting. 

Tampa's D stats were middle of the road in most categories but they were top 5 in total takeaways. You take out the most turnover prone QB in recent memory and put in the most turnover conscious QB maybe ever and you stop having the defense both playing from behind and defending short fields. 

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On 7/15/2020 at 11:12 PM, Bearerofnews said:

Chiefs are going 3-13. You guys getting emotional isnt changing that. 3-13 lock that in. The fall will be greater than the rise.  I mean no ill will. What ive noticed is my predictions are always a year too early.  Literally ALWAYS. So look for Dolphins to go 11-5 this year.

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I think this will be a weird season, assuming there is a season.

Logically you would say the Ravens and expect teams to pressure Jackson instead of playing soft and allowing him all of the time in the world to throw and take your chances with him running but it didn't happen last year so maybe it won's again.

 

Teams with 20-1 or better SB odds:

Pats
Ravens
Chiefs
Cowboys
Packers
Saints
Bucs
49ers
Seahawks

Of those I'd look at which defense has the best chance of failing and it's probably the Seahawks or Packers.

I'd probably go Seahawks since they are in a tougher division.

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A part of me wants to say Chiefs because Chiefs and literally every team is going to show up to the game against us like it's the ******* Superbowl this year. But Mahomes is too good.

 

So I'm picking The Browns. I thought they would be a CONTENDER last season so I just decided to go back to betting against the Browns year after year.

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2 hours ago, Kirill said:

So I'm picking The Browns. I thought they would be a CONTENDER last season so I just decided to go back to betting against the Browns year after year.

You think they’re going to collapse coming off of a 5-11 season? I’d love to see the mental gymnastics logic here.

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