2020 Busts

[JaguarCrazy2832]

10 hours ago, N4L said:

As someone who is picking #1 overall in a 10 team league (.5ppr) you're saying I should take a RB in the second and then a WR with the first pick in round 3? Or do I go WR/WR there and then take a stab at a few runners in the 5/6/7th rounds? 

Which WR should I be targeting there at the turn of the 2/3rd? Feels like I will have my pick of the second tier of WRs at that spot 

Obviously depends on how the board falls but I'm curious to hear exactly where those lines are for you 

 

PS, I also have Lamar Jackson as a keeper in that league (for an 11th!) So I am considering going kittle at the turn to have the best QB, best TE, and best RB in fantasy

I certainly wouldn't say to pigeon-hole your strategy already. Obviously CMC is your 1st pick but see what falls to you. 

Assuming its the standard 2-2-RB/WR main 5, I'd probably make sure to get a 2nd RB at the turn but if say Travis Kelce and idk Michael Thomas just magically fall into your lap then you have no choice but to take them. Thats not the best example because Thomas is going round 1 but its definitely possible Kelce falls that far. 

I do think if 1 of the Top-12 RBs falls to 19 you take 1-2 of them or a TE like Kelce

[titanrick]

16 hours ago, BoltsFan937 said:

I’m going Joe Mixon as my bust/player to avoid.  I had him last year and benched him halfway through for Miles Sanders and some weeks Montgomery.  A few reasons, Bengals oline was terrible and I don’t see much improvement this year, oh they see Baltimore and Pittsburgh twice, they get blown out early and throw the ball a ton. He’s a talented player no doubt, but I’m avoiding that situation in Cincinnati 

I agree.  I'm picking at the end of the first where the rankings are telling me to take him and I just can't see it.  This is his fourth season already - are we still expecting him to "break out"?  He's good for 5-8 TDs, a couple TD catches, inconsistent from game to game.  Burrow changes things hopefully but how much?  Those are not stats you can win with from your first round pick. You need a difference maker with your first round pick.

[Humble_Beast]

22 minutes ago, titanrick said:

I agree.  I'm picking at the end of the first where the rankings are telling me to take him and I just can't see it.  This is his fourth season already - are we still expecting him to "break out"?  He's good for 5-8 TDs, a couple TD catches, inconsistent from game to game.  Burrow changes things hopefully but how much?  Those are not stats you can win with from your first round pick. You need a difference maker with your first round pick.

what did the Bengals do to improve their offensive line? at the end of the day that will make or break Mixon

[JaguarCrazy2832]

Just to play devils advocate here because I dont love Mixon but he isnt all bad:

1. In the 2nd half of last season after the bye week(where he was banged up going into it and hurting most of the 1st half to begin with) he averaged 22 carries for 102 yards and 4.6 npc and scored all 5 TDs in the 2nd half. 

2. Even if the OL is no better, he had Andy Dalton and Ryan Finley throwing the ball to Tyler Boyd and...who else? Burrow cant be worse, plus AJ Green for more than 0 games...although maybe not much more and Tee Higgins. That alone has got to help him

3. Also in general Joe Burrow should be able to move the ball at least better which will also improve his TD numbers because 5 for a back his size is bad. 

[Humble_Beast]

2 hours ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

Just to play devils advocate here because I dont love Mixon but he isnt all bad:

1. In the 2nd half of last season after the bye week(where he was banged up going into it and hurting most of the 1st half to begin with) he averaged 22 carries for 102 yards and 4.6 npc and scored all 5 TDs in the 2nd half. 

2. Even if the OL is no better, he had Andy Dalton and Ryan Finley throwing the ball to Tyler Boyd and...who else? Burrow cant be worse, plus AJ Green for more than 0 games...although maybe not much more and Tee Higgins. That alone has got to help him

3. Also in general Joe Burrow should be able to move the ball at least better which will also improve his TD numbers because 5 for a back his size is bad. 

what are your thoughts on Bengals OL

[BoltsFan937]

10 hours ago, titanrick said:

I agree.  I'm picking at the end of the first where the rankings are telling me to take him and I just can't see it.  This is his fourth season already - are we still expecting him to "break out"?  He's good for 5-8 TDs, a couple TD catches, inconsistent from game to game.  Burrow changes things hopefully but how much?  Those are not stats you can win with from your first round pick. You need a difference maker with your first round pick.

This. I’ll reiterate that I think Mixon is a great talent, I just don’t like the situation. Similar to Steven Jackson way back with the Rams.  IMO I think I can find similar production in the 4th round out of Montgomery or possibly one of the rookies in Swift or Taylor.  

[BoltsFan937]

2 hours ago, Humble_Beast said:

what are your thoughts on Bengals OL

LT - Jonah Williams (1st rounder from 2019, missed last season with injury so basically a rookie year)

LG - Michael Jordan - 2nd year guy

C - Trey Hopkins

RG - Xavier Sua-Filo - average vet

RT - Bobby Williams/Hakeem Adeniji (it’s up but young players)

I would say there’s reason to be optimistic about improvement out of the oline. But it’s still a young group with not much experience playing together. Talented but raw

[N4L]

14 hours ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

I certainly wouldn't say to pigeon-hole your strategy already. Obviously CMC is your 1st pick but see what falls to you. 

Assuming its the standard 2-2-RB/WR main 5, I'd probably make sure to get a 2nd RB at the turn but if say Travis Kelce and idk Michael Thomas just magically fall into your lap then you have no choice but to take them. Thats not the best example because Thomas is going round 1 but its definitely possible Kelce falls that far. 

I do think if 1 of the Top-12 RBs falls to 19 you take 1-2 of them or a TE like Kelce

Right, thats why I said lets see how the board shakes out, but realistically there are 14 RBs I like in the first two rounds. Very, very real possibility that all 14 are gone by the time I pick in the 2nd, along with MT, Adams, Julio and Hill. Thats 18 players, so realistically hopkins or mahomes will go as well.

That leaves me in a weird spot, no RBs worth taking there, but not great value at WR because its the start of a new tier of players... and I will have to take two guys there. Thats why I was asking what WRs @Forge would be worth taking in that position, because I would hate to grab a WR in the 2nd that will be outproduced by someone in the 4th or 5th.

Its partly why I mentioned a TE there, but there are a bunch of TEs I really like this year so I am thinking of leaning away and making that plan B or C, but that requires a good plan A lol 

Curious to hear @The LBC's thoughts as well (what players I should target in the 2nd/3rd turn after having #1 overall 10 team .5ppr (after keeping Lamar Jackson for an 11th))

 

[JaguarCrazy2832]

12 hours ago, Humble_Beast said:

what are your thoughts on Bengals OL

Its not great and I realize its a reason for pause. I'm not saying draft him at 12 but I think their OL will be better or at least as bad as last year. Burrow will make them more competitive and therefore he'll be more likely to score more TDs and get touches in the 4th quarter

[Forge]

On 8/23/2020 at 10:44 PM, N4L said:

As someone who is picking #1 overall in a 10 team league (.5ppr) you're saying I should take a RB in the second and then a WR with the first pick in round 3? Or do I go WR/WR there and then take a stab at a few runners in the 5/6/7th rounds? 

Which WR should I be targeting there at the turn of the 2/3rd? Feels like I will have my pick of the second tier of WRs at that spot 

Obviously depends on how the board falls but I'm curious to hear exactly where those lines are for you 

 

PS, I also have Lamar Jackson as a keeper in that league (for an 11th!) So I am considering going kittle at the turn to have the best QB, best TE, and best RB in fantasy

In a 10 team league, it's a little different. My favorite would be to go RB / RB, and maybe even RB / RB / RB depending on how the board actually falls, tbh. You could have a somewhat reasonable chance of getting CMC / Jacobs / Drake / Ekeler,  and then coming back with WR in rounds 4 & 5 which would likely be Robert Woods and Keenan Allen, the latter of which I"m not really stoked about, but isn't the worst thing. Receiver is so deep that I can stack it on the back half with high upside plays, to be honest. So if I have a chance to draft 3 bonafide RB studs, I'm probably doing it. Thas just me though. 

[AFF]

22 hours ago, Humble_Beast said:

what did the Bengals do to improve their offensive line? at the end of the day that will make or break Mixon

Jonah Williams, their 1st rounder in 2019 is gonna be their LT...missed all last year due to injury and they signed Xavier Sua-Filo to fill in at Guard.

Lookat this way...their OL wasNt good last year and Mixon was a RB1.

Maybe with improved skill position play and a lil better OL, Mixon could be a top 6 type of guy.

[Humble_Beast]

this is my top 10 RBs

• CMC
• Barkley
• Zeke
• Kamara

-----------------------------

• Cook
• CEH
• Mixon
• Jacobs
• Henry
• Sanders or Drake

[BStanRamFan]

On 8/4/2020 at 11:24 AM, GordyTheGoffer said:

I explained some place but cant find it. Goff's best ability is his deep pass. I'm a fan. His deep pass is up there with the best. However the RAMs are short on speed this season after Cooks went to Texas. Through the WR, RB & TE groups they have middling speed at best. They seem to be going with the logic that if you have great route runners you don't need speed. Maybe that works, maybe it does not but every year we see teams lack offensive ability because a team lacks deep speed. It allows the secondary to squeeze up and take away the underneath and that allows the pass rush to pin back their ears and attack more. The Rams don't have the O line for that, well not that we know of from last year anyway. This is speculation thread, I'm speculating only but hopefully that explains it fella.

Fun Fact: Rams had a WR/TE brought down at the 1 yard line EIGHT times last year.

Gurley or Brown punched those in. If these guys get 6-24 more inches, Goff (and possibly the Rams) are viewed very differently going into this season. 

[Dr LBC]

12 hours ago, N4L said:

Curious to hear @The LBC's thoughts as well (what players I should target in the 2nd/3rd turn after having #1 overall 10 team .5ppr (after keeping Lamar Jackson for an 11th))

10-team?  I'd be saying prayers and sacrificing goats to try to get Kenyan Drake to fall to you.  In PPR formats, I think he's got strong potential to finish as a Top 5 fantasy back this year and be very much in the R1 conversation next year; I actually feel more strongly about him at his ADP than I do Kyler, even with them both in the same offense.  Elsewise... especially if you have the supplement of Lamar giving you points from ground yardage and TD's, I'd be perfectly comfortable in PPR format with Miles Sanders as my RB1.  Brandon Brooks being out for the season, I don't like, but Dougie has shown that he'll bell-cow a guy when the guy has the tools and Sanders has the tools.  With you being on the turn, even with it being 10-team I'd probably feel it necessary early on to try to get a volume-heavy WR1 (Thielen fits this bill, and limited camp/preseason preventing Cousins from having the chance to cement chemistry with new WR's early on should lend itself to this).  Godwin (especially over Evans, I don't think the way Evans is deployed in Arian's offense necessarily lends itself to how Brady prefers to run an offense - Evans will be way more deep-ball dependent which at the very least puts question marks on his weekly consistency which you need out of your top 2 WR's in PPR formats) is another.  And I wouldn't feel terrible with DJ Moore as my WR1 (that's probably the floor in PPR formats for me on WR1's... maybe I'd stretch to DJ Chark too since they're rolling with Gardner as the QB and, unlike Brady, Minshew is quite content to sling YOLO balls on the regular with Chark as his intended receiver) - I don't expect Teddy to be outstanding but I think Joe Brady can scheme similar production out of Moore that he got from Justin Jefferson last season (I don't know about 18 TD's, in fact, I doubt that; but 100+ receptions at a 12-15 YPC average, I think is doable).

Most important thing with the turn is that if you have to accept you're going to reach several times in a draft - it's just the way the turn works.  So if you're weighing fallen value against filling a need (and/or getting "your guys" that you've identified as the players you absolutely want to come out of the draft with), that better be tremendous value you're getting (my rule of thumb is in a clear tier above the guy you've specifically targeted).  Also, by reach, I mean a full round worth of value in terms of ADP (we're talking, in your case, 10-player rounds +/- 3 picks; which basically makes it clear that barring phenomenal luck there's no way you can expect them to make it back to you on your next turn of picks).

 

[Dr LBC]

3 hours ago, Humble_Beast said:

this is my top 10 RBs

• CMC
• Barkley
• Zeke
• Kamara

-----------------------------

• Cook
• CEH
• Mixon
• Jacobs
• Henry
• Sanders or Drake

This is nearly identical to mine.  That said, depending on format (PPR, dynasty, etc.) I wouldn't fault anyone for taking CEH ahead of Kamara or Cook.