2020 Busts

[Dr LBC]

On 8/24/2020 at 10:37 AM, titanrick said:

I agree.  I'm picking at the end of the first where the rankings are telling me to take him and I just can't see it.  This is his fourth season already - are we still expecting him to "break out"?  He's good for 5-8 TDs, a couple TD catches, inconsistent from game to game.  Burrow changes things hopefully but how much?  Those are not stats you can win with from your first round pick. You need a difference maker with your first round pick.

Disagree.  You need your first round pick to not bust versus ADP.  The guys you want in the 1st round are the guys who are going to give you strong, dependable baselines week-to-week (which is why, for the life of me, I can never understand the Tyreke Hill 1st round hype that came around at any point).  Mixon finished as the RB13 last year despite being on a team with an obliterated OL, Ryan Finley at QB, and a team that we getting blown out on the regular.  He's very clearly in a tier below the likes of Zeke, Saquon, and CMC, but Brian Westbrook was in a tier below LT in fantasy, that didn't make him any less a consistently worthy back-of-1st-round fantasy pick specifically because he was spectacularly consistent and dependable as a fantasy asset.

You can't just throw out the fact that Cincy had a rookie head coach last season; rookie head coaches tend to have growing pains (especially when they've got bad teams to work with), so 2nd half of the season is where you can draw most of your early judgments on them.  Looking at how the season broke down, it took Zac Taylor time to figure out that you've got to give Mixon a large portion of the snaps (even he admitted as such late in the season), but when they did Mixon was absolutely consistent game-to-game: He had 1 game in the second half of the season where he received 60% of snaps and finished worse than a Top 15 RB for the week (only 3 where he finished outside the Top 10) and that week was against one of the top-2 run-defenses in the league.

Personally, in a certain formats, would I take Kenyan Drake ahead of Joe Mixon?  Sure.  If I'm sitting on the turn however and I have the chance to take both, I'd do it.  Because that give me the kind of weekly consistency that I can hunt upside (if not damn near run a match-up dependent platoon at my flex spot.

[BoltsFan937]

^^ And that’s what you have to believe in if you’re drafting Mixon in the 1st round.  308 yards and 3 of his 5 rushing TD’s came against Cleveland (2 TD’s and over 150 yards in a meaningless week 17 game was one of those Cleveland games so you don’t even get to use that because your fantasy season was over by then most likely).  The tragedy of Mixon they don’t throw him the ball more.  He has good hands and a feel for it, but Cincinnati prefers Bernard in that role, maybe that’ll change this year.  Watched plenty of Bengals games last year and they’d go two minute offense and here comes Bernard to eat up all the flat passes. The schedule isn’t too hateful this year, Baltimore week 17 so you miss them once, the team should be improved on both sides as well. I’m not gonna take a chance on him in the top 2 rounds personally, I just feel like there’s better options there in my opinion 

[BStanRamFan]

On 8/25/2020 at 12:34 PM, Humble_Beast said:

this is my top 10 RBs

• CMC
• Barkley
• Zeke
• Kamara

-----------------------------

• Cook
• CEH
• Mixon
• Jacobs
• Henry
• Sanders or Drake

I'm sitting in the 8th seed this year out of 12.

Out of reach for the top 4 you mentioned + Henry and Cook.

I refuse to go WR first round after being burned, but I would be looking at Davante Adams, Deandre Hopkins, Michael Thomas. PASS.

 

I'm considering going Josh Jacobs at 8. Drake also intrigues me.

But CEH scares me as a rookie. Mixon I'm middle of the road on. 

[JaguarCrazy2832]

10 hours ago, BStanRamFan said:

I'm sitting in the 8th seed this year out of 12.

Out of reach for the top 4 you mentioned + Henry and Cook.

I refuse to go WR first round after being burned, but I would be looking at Davante Adams, Deandre Hopkins, Michael Thomas. PASS.

 

I'm considering going Josh Jacobs at 8. Drake also intrigues me.

But CEH scares me as a rookie. Mixon I'm middle of the road on. 

I'm in the same boat as you picking 8th Non-PPR out of 12. CEH or Jacobs is likely my pick there. I was hopeful Henry would be there until his ADP went up

[BStanRamFan]

13 hours ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

I'm in the same boat as you picking 8th Non-PPR out of 12. CEH or Jacobs is likely my pick there. I was hopeful Henry would be there until his ADP went up

In every mock I do, I see Michael Thomas and Davante Adams fall in my lap. I want neither that early lol so now I have to theoretically "reach".

CEH is boom or bust as rookie. I have to keep reading up on how he's doing in camp, but his ceiling justifies the pick.

Jacobs just seems more of a sure thing. 1200 yards 10-12 TDs. That's what I'm looking for in my early pick

[JaguarCrazy2832]

50 minutes ago, BStanRamFan said:

In every mock I do, I see Michael Thomas and Davante Adams fall in my lap. I want neither that early lol so now I have to theoretically "reach".

CEH is boom or bust as rookie. I have to keep reading up on how he's doing in camp, but his ceiling justifies the pick.

Jacobs just seems more of a sure thing. 1200 yards 10-12 TDs. That's what I'm looking for in my early pick

Its like I'm having a conversation with myself. YES, that's exactly how I feel. I'm not remotely tempted to take Adams at 8 and dont even have him as my #2 WR but Thomas being there is definitely possible and its tough to pass him because he is by far the best WR in fantasy but given the RB layout and in a non-PPR league too I just cant take him there. I agree the boom/bust with CEH is tough to handle but if the 1st 7 picks are: CMC-Zeke-Barkley-Cook-Kamara-Henry and either Jacobs or CEH, I'm taking whichever is left. I'm just not 100% sold on Sanders getting that many touches and I'd love to hear more about this injury he has before drafting him tomorrow night. Chubb is tempting in Non-PPR and even in the 2nd half of the season with Hunt there he rushed for like 700 yards plus another 100 receiving. Other than those 2 its no one else.

[SmittyBacall]

On 8/22/2020 at 3:01 PM, Forge said:

I'm not going to call this flat out bust type guys, but these are guys I'm fading because I don't think that they'll live up to their ADP. 

1. Deandre Hopkins. @N4L will tell you that I'm completely out on him this year. Nope nope nope. Dude is going as WR2 / WR3 and a fringe first round pick (on ESPN, his adp has recently slightly dropped to pick 12). That's insane. I'm not touching him before round 3 this year. 

2. Jonathan Taylor. I didn't get the love as a prospect, and I don't get the love from a fantasy perspective. He's going as high as RB15 on some sites. RB15! What in the world are people doing? ESPN has him a little better at RB23, overall pick 67. Still too high for me. So lets start with the historical stuff - day 2 rookie running backs do not have a good history fantasy wise their rookie season. But someone explain to me why you'd take Taylor where he's going as opposed to Mostert two or three rounds later? Awesome running blocking offensive line? Check & check for both. Splitting running down carries? Yeah, they both are. Marlon Mack is not going away. Lack of passing game contribution? Check and Check. Hines will get the passing down work in Indy, Jet in SF. Ball security issues? Check and check. They both fumble the ball. Mostert led the league last year in percentage of runs over 5 yards and 10 yards (17% on the latter, I believe). He scored 12 touchdowns in his last 9 games last year (including playoffs). #1 in RB dvoa by a huuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuge margin (the distance between he and #2 was the same as #2 and #7 almost) ,and with the 49ers, on 178 carries, the dude has averaged 6 yards a carry. That's not a huge sample size, but it's not tiny. So why are people gambling on Taylor 2 rounds and 20 spots higher? It's the same circumstance, and one has at least some track record of success in the NFL. 

3. Deebo Samuel. Yeah, just let this one go. It's not a big deal considering where he's going (between 85-95, wr4 territory), but the thing is, Jones fractures are highly likely to heal improperly or re-fracture, he may start the season on pup...there's really no reason to draft him. My guess is that he ends up on the waiver wire at some point. I'd rather shoot for the moon with Will Fuller in a similar spot, or even just grab Edelman. 

4. Almost all round 3/4 running backs. Seriously.  There is just nothing here that is enticing over the receivers at all. Your goal should be to go RB / RB, but even if you're forced to go elsewhere with one of those two picks, I'd still make rounds 3/4 about non RB positions and come back in round 5 and grab someone like James Connor or wait a few more rounds and grab Mostert to pair with some other young upside plays like Akers to compete at RB2. Your round 3/4 running backs include maybe Fournette, Gurley, Carson, Lev Bell and David Johnson. Your round 3/4 wide receivers? Golloday, Thielen, Juju, Dj  Moore, Allen Robinson, OBJ, Amari Cooper, etc. To me, this isn't even a question. Those runnings have limited upside in almost every case - they are high volume low efficiency types in my opinion. I think your team is much stronger  this way. 

5. Antonio Gibson. He's still not going super high, and if his ADP stays where its at, it's not the worst thing to gamble on, but I Think people are going to reach on him and his ADP will go up the closer we get to the season.  He's never going to get the volume in my opinion. In his area, there are even still guys that I'd rather gamble on like Damien Harris. Hell, Mattison is only going 4 picks before him, so if you have the choice, I'd definitely take Mattison. 

6. Gronk. Espn has him going in the 6th round right now in PPR. Waaaaaaaaaaaaay too early for me. I'm a subscriber to the first / last thing on tight ends, but I do think that there is some value in the late middle round at TE. Hunter Henry is going barely inside the top 10 at TE, just inside the top 100 overall, 3-4 rounds later, and I'd much rather take him at his position than Gronk. 

I have more, I'm sure, and I'll probably add to the list as we get closer. 

Great post. I couldn’t agree more with points 2 and 4. 

Though I admit I still like Deebo quite a bit.

[Humble_Beast]

Sony Michel a lost cause?(Full ppr)

 

He’s on waivers, Is he a good pick up because he might be a starting RB? I know Damian Harris is getting the hype by Sony with no draft capital worth rostering? Pats always have a well coached them, and might run more... thoughts on Sony?? might drop my kicker for him

 

Current RBs: CEH, Jacobs, Taylor, Monty, Moss

[AFF]

4 minutes ago, Humble_Beast said:

Sony Michel a lost cause?(Full ppr)

 

He’s on waivers, Is he a good pick up because he might be a starting RB? I know Damian Harris is getting the hype by Sony with no draft capital worth rostering? Pats always have a well coached them, and might run more... thoughts on Sony?? might drop my kicker for him

 

Current RBs: CEH, Jacobs, Taylor, Monty, Moss

In full ppr I’d stay away...you’re pretty set already.

[Humble_Beast]

1 hour ago, AlanFanecaFan said:

In full ppr I’d stay away...you’re pretty set already.

in full PPR

QB: Wentz

RB: CEH, Jacobs, Taylor, Monty, Moss

WR: Juju, Woods, Ridley, Chark, D Johnson, Reagor

TE: Engram, Hockenson

thinking of dropping my kicker to pick up: QB Baker, QB Burrow - dart throw, QB Carr, RB Sony, RB Love, RB Duke, RB Edmonds, WR A Miller, WR Campbell

I'm kinda leaning Duke because DJ might be washed/and get hurt. Sony is a starting RB tho

[AFF]

6 hours ago, Humble_Beast said:

in full PPR

QB: Wentz

RB: CEH, Jacobs, Taylor, Monty, Moss

WR: Juju, Woods, Ridley, Chark, D Johnson, Reagor

TE: Engram, Hockenson

thinking of dropping my kicker to pick up: QB Baker, QB Burrow - dart throw, QB Carr, RB Sony, RB Love, RB Duke, RB Edmonds, WR A Miller, WR Campbell

I'm kinda leaning Duke because DJ might be washed/and get hurt. Sony is a starting RB tho

I’d go Edmonds...highest upside of any RB and shown it for 2 games last year....Sony is at best your rb5 come week 3 after monty is back.