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Questions and Projections for ‘20


jimkelly02

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I read this article and it peaked my interest to get everyone’s input....

https://justblogbaby.com/2020/07/24/raiders-5-questions-training-camp-2020/6/

* What will our record be; will we make playoffs and if so how far will we go.

* What major questions are their going into the season and what do you think will happen.

* What are some of your specific player projections this year; ie stats of players or just general projections like how they will play.

* Any other projections or claims you want to put on record.

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I’ll add more over time but just a few for now:

Ferrell will make a major jump in his play. I don’t think he’ll ever be the 15 sack type of player some expect #4 overall should become but I think he’ll prove to be a very good DE for us.  I think he will improve even more as a run defender and will really step up his pass rush.  I’m not saying he’ll be a better pass rusher than Josh Allen, but I think he will give us 7-8 sacks (4.5 in ‘19) with 32-36 pressures (15 in ‘19).  His run defense, which was very good last year, should also take a big step as well.

Maxx Crosby has another good year. His 10 sacks and 31 pressures in ‘19 jumps to 12 sacks and 40-44 pressures.

I think PJ Hall proves to be a solid contributor at the DT position.  He’ll give us solid run stuffing alongside Hankins and while Hurst and Collins gets most reps on passing downs, I think Hall will give us a pleasant surprise as a pass rusher.  I think he gives us 2.5 sacks and 13-15 pressures.

 

I think we finish 10-6 and make the playoffs.

I think Carr plays well enough to lockdown his role as starting QB in ‘21. However, fans and the media will always be questioning if we don’t move on from him.  And let’s face it barring 40TDs, 4500yds, and a 12-4 season fans will still be Carr haters.

I think Ruggs gets 45-50 catches (70-75 targets, 65’ish% comp), 700-850yds, 6 TD.  I think he will play well and have us very excited for his growth and development in future years.  I think if people are expecting 70 catches/900+ yds they’re setting themselves up for disappointment.  We will spread the ball around so much that he will not get the number of targets required to meet those expectations.

Waller cements himself as a top 3 TE.  I don’t think he has a drop in production like some have said.  I think his production will change slightly though.  I think with the improvement in WRs and TEs (adding Witten and Moreau’s progression) he will be used more as a playmaker.  He won’t just be the high volume target we say last year, due to not having other options.  I think he gets 85-90 catches, 1100-1150 yards, and 6 TDs.

Edited by jimkelly02
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4 hours ago, jimkelly02 said:

I read this article and it peaked my interest to get everyone’s input....

https://justblogbaby.com/2020/07/24/raiders-5-questions-training-camp-2020/6/

* What will our record be; will we make playoffs and if so how far will we go.

* What major questions are their going into the season and what do you think will happen.

* What are some of your specific player projections this year; ie stats of players or just general projections like how they will play.

* Any other projections or claims you want to put on record.

I think we sneak into the playoffs with a 9-7 record but make some noise and win away from home the wild card round before losing in heartbreaking fashion in the divisional round. Plaudits all round.

Major questions going into the season will centre around Carr but he will play well, although within our system and still not excite everyone. Question marks will also be around our revamped DBs as theres so much youth and expectations but i think some will rise to the expectations like Abrams but one or two will falter maybe Johnson or Randall.

I expect Ruggs to gave a major impact although his stats will look a little pedestrian, maybe 50 receptions for 700 yards but 6 or 7 TDs. I think Jacobs hits 1200 rushing yards but only 200 to 300 receiving yards and makes the Pro Bowl. The Condor will get 10+ sacks and continue his rise to the Pro Bowl, Ferrell plays really solid adds 6 sacks and is a great run defender despite the media dogging him for lack of flashy stats. Nassib surprises and finishes second on the team in sacks, leads the team in passes batted and intercepts one too. Littleton is a star and excells in coverage, Kwit is solid. Joyner plays well and Arnette starts midway through the season due to injuries and looks good apart from a few PIs.

One other thing I think unfortunately is that Bowden underwhelms, we've seen so many of these gadget/swiss army knife players and so few of them actually produce outside a few flashes. I don't think he'll be a good relief RB sadly.

Edited by Darbsk
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22 hours ago, Darbsk said:

I think we sneak into the playoffs with a 9-7 record but make some noise and win away from home the wild card round before losing in heartbreaking fashion in the divisional round. Plaudits all round.

Major questions going into the season will centre around Carr but he will play well, although within our system and still not excite everyone. Question marks will also be around our revamped DBs as theres so much youth and expectations but i think some will rise to the expectations like Abrams but one or two will falter maybe Johnson or Randall.

I expect Ruggs to gave a major impact although his stats will look a little pedestrian, maybe 50 receptions for 700 yards but 6 or 7 TDs. I think Jacobs hits 1200 rushing yards but only 200 to 300 receiving yards and makes the Pro Bowl. The Condor will get 10+ sacks and continue his rise to the Pro Bowl, Ferrell plays really solid adds 6 sacks and is a great run defender despite the media dogging him for lack of flashy stats. Nassib surprises and finishes second on the team in sacks, leads the team in passes batted and intercepts one too. Littleton is a star and excells in coverage, Kwit is solid. Joyner plays well and Arnette starts midway through the season due to injuries and looks good apart from a few PIs.

One other thing I think unfortunately is that Bowden underwhelms, we've seen so many of these gadget/swiss army knife players and so few of them actually produce outside a few flashes. I don't think he'll be a good relief RB sadly.

I also think Bowden “underwhelms”.... but I Believe it will be more of a lack of playing time and usage (carries, Targets/catches, etc) then him making plays when given the opportunity.  He’s making a major position change and hasn’t really stayed at the same position long in college, not to mention making the jump to the NFL on a good team with solid depth.  I’m not saying he’ll be electric but not often used, I think he’ll be solid but not spectacular AND not often used.

I think Joyner rebounds and plays solid but  not spectacularly.  The calls for him to be bench will be put to bed, but ultimately due to his cap number and the future being Robertson it’s inevitable he’s gone next offseason.

I’m HOPING Kwiatkoski is solid vs the run, decent in coverage.  I do think he will be Moderately successful on A-gap blitzes.  That’s a not so commonly spoken feature of his game.  It’s probably one of the main reasons he was so appealing or more appealing that other options to Guenther.

Speaking of Guenther, I think the defense will play well enough under him (mainly because he finally has the talent to run his scheme) that calls for his firing will be put to bed.  Then again us fans always want an upgrade, lol.

I know your high on Nassib, but I think he’ll be solid but Unspectacular.  “Solid but unspectacular” just sums him up.  He’ll be a solid 3rd DE.... very solid versus the run (might have his best season to date as he’s hitting his prime with an upward trajectory) and decent versus the pass.  If he were to get 600-650 snaps and give us 40-45 tackles, 12 TFL, 7.0 sacks, 5-6 PD, 25 pressures then that would be a good year.

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1 hour ago, jimkelly02 said:

I’m HOPING Kwiatkoski is solid vs the run, decent in coverage.  I do think he will be Moderately successful on A-gap blitzes.  That’s a not so commonly spoken feature of his game.  It’s probably one of the main reasons he was so appealing or more appealing that other options to Guenther.

Speaking of Guenther, I think the defense will play well enough under him (mainly because he finally has the talent to run his scheme) that calls for his firing will be put to bed.  Then again us fans always want an upgrade, lol.

Even though I think Kwuatkoski is a key player I font think its critical he pkays at an all star level, simply that he does his job, gets the calls right and communicates well, he needs to be solid if you know what I mean. The flashy stuff can he done by Crosby, Littleton, Abrams etc. I think he needs to be the organiser and glue that holds the D together so solid against the run and decent in coverage will be fine if he's the field general in there.

Guenther is in a but of a hot seat, he's had ready made excuses the last couple years but even though it could be a very difficult year for coaches and getting the D installed with so many new parts and the Covid difficulties he really has to show not just improvement but a real turnaround as Marinelli is a highly regarded coach and there will be constant comparisons between the two. Good for us as if Guenther gets things worked out we're ok and if he doesn't we gave a ready made replacement who's been on board all off season.

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21 minutes ago, Darbsk said:

Even though I think Kwuatkoski is a key player I font think its critical he pkays at an all star level, simply that he does his job, gets the calls right and communicates well, he needs to be solid if you know what I mean. The flashy stuff can he done by Crosby, Littleton, Abrams etc. I think he needs to be the organiser and glue that holds the D together so solid against the run and decent in coverage will be fine if he's the field general in there.

Guenther is in a but of a hot seat, he's had ready made excuses the last couple years but even though it could be a very difficult year for coaches and getting the D installed with so many new parts and the Covid difficulties he really has to show not just improvement but a real turnaround as Marinelli is a highly regarded coach and there will be constant comparisons between the two. Good for us as if Guenther gets things worked out we're ok and if he doesn't we gave a ready made replacement who's been on board all off season.

Yeah we don’t need / I don’t think we should expect Kwiatkoski to be on some type of near pro bowl level.  He just need to be (and I think he will) above “replacement level starter”.  I think he’ll actually be a tad better then that.  
 

Honestly I’m not super impressed by Marinelli as our DC.... if PG doesn’t get the players playing up to expectations.  Marinelli wouldn’t be a bad option to finish the year but shouldn’t be considered For DC in ‘21. He’s Just turned 71 and while his experience is good for developing The young DL I think a younger, more inventive and cutting edge DC should be brought in at that point.

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23 minutes ago, jimkelly02 said:

Honestly I’m not super impressed by Marinelli as our DC.... if PG doesn’t get the players playing up to expectations.  Marinelli wouldn’t be a bad option to finish the year but shouldn’t be considered For DC in ‘21. He’s Just turned 71 and while his experience is good for developing The young DL I think a younger, more inventive and cutting edge DC should be brought in at that point.

You raise a good point about Marinelli's age and our young D but I think the main thing for me would be not necessarily to get a young DC but to get a guy that has similar scheme requirements and is very competent. We dont want to be changing to a 3-4 zone cover scheme for example and having to move guys around or bring in a whole new bunch of guys after specifically hand picking these free agents and investing so much draft capital recently. I'm hoping it will all be academic as the D should be much improved and I expect a wild card type season and maybe a surprise playoff win. We've given Guenther the tools to work with now we'll see if he can make chicken soup out of actual chicken rather than chicken feathers. 😀

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1 hour ago, Darbsk said:

You raise a good point about Marinelli's age and our young D but I think the main thing for me would be not necessarily to get a young DC but to get a guy that has similar scheme requirements and is very competent. We dont want to be changing to a 3-4 zone cover scheme for example and having to move guys around or bring in a whole new bunch of guys after specifically hand picking these free agents and investing so much draft capital recently. I'm hoping it will all be academic as the D should be much improved and I expect a wild card type season and maybe a surprise playoff win. We've given Guenther the tools to work with now we'll see if he can make chicken soup out of actual chicken rather than chicken feathers. 😀

That’s a good point we need to get a DC who runs a similar system.  That’s something I totally agree to the point I just skipped over it completely as if it was a given.  But yes that’s a very good point that  should be addressed. Not only do we need to stay with a 4-3 but it should be a man heavy (not zone scheme) to maximize Mullen, Arnette, etc.  we have too much invested in draft picks and recent FAs to switch.  
 

What I absolutely don’t want though is another “RE-TREAD” coach.... which PG kinda was/is.  We should go with someone  whose established and highly successful or I prefer a young, innovative Coach who is able to adapt to the current NFL landscape and will be here for several years.

Im tired of the Rex Ryan types.... coaches who were good then basically got figured out and couldn’t adapt, then by the time they get here we get a few stale years out of them until their run out of town.

Edited by jimkelly02
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Raiders finish 10-6 or 9-7 they make the playoffs but out after one game. Getting that playoff spot and playing a playoff game would be huge for this team and for the city of Vegas. 
 

My major concern is Gruden and his ability use everyone correctly including Ruggs and Bowden. Also a concern with Gruden is Carr tbh. When Carr was at his best he was free to open up the passing game and take shots down field. I understand that this will be a run first team and should be with a RB like Jacobs, but you still have to allow Carr to open up the offense. 
 

Jacobs gets 1,400 yards rushing 

Waller and Tyrell both have a 1,000 yard receiving year. 

Randall finishes the season with at least 4 picks and Littleton gets at least 2.

Other predictions is Amik replaces Joyner by week 9 and Arnette will start after the bye week.

First 5 weeks Carr has to come out blazing. That’s when he needs to win the job and not give the Raiders any thoughts on going to Mariota. First 5 games are tough, but have to at least go 2-3. If Carr can do that and play well his job is safe for the rest of the year. Raiders go 1-4 and then they have a bye week it would be the perfect time to make the switch to Mariota to give him that two weeks of practice before the Bucs game. 
 

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I guess this fits in this thread instead of making a new one. 2020 is a make or break season for the following starters 

T Williams

G Jackson

M Hurst/M Collins

N Morrow

D Randall

 L Joyner 

I also wonder if we see progression from 

Jacobs

Renfrow

Z Jones

Waller

Moreau

K Miller

B Parker

D Sharpe

A James

Ferrell

Crosby

Key

Hurst

 Hall 

Mullen,

I Johnson

K Dixon

Abram

I also wonder how are rookie class is going to perform. Will there be a an UDFA or two who surprise? Nick Bowers??? (Lol just wanted JimKelly2 reaction)

 

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