Packers should trade Rodgers in 2021

[VonKarman]

3 minutes ago, Outpost31 said:

And yeah, Rodgers wins Super Bowl this year, then we trade him coming off a Super Bowl win adds a first round pick.  Two first round picks and a player and we’ve got another Super Bowl win within 3 years I’d Love is even Matt Ryan level.

I'd be happy if our 2nd year in this offense makes us play better and that masks Rodgers' decline.

[squire12]

21 minutes ago, FAH1223 said:

Rodgers isn't getting traded in 2021, guys. 

He's our QB until 2022 at the earliest. I don't think the COVID-19 impact of the loss in revenue will impact the salary cap in 2021. It'd be too soon. 

 

 

That is not what is being reported and agreed to by the NFL owners and NFLPA

 

 

 

Edited July 26, 2020 by squire12

[Shanedorf]

2 hours ago, VonKarman said:

He's barely a Top 10 QB,

GASP ! Barely Top 10, perish the thought.
RCon posted his comments awhile back and said AR's about 12th in the league based on various metrics he uses. That seems about right.

Trading him in 2021 makes no sense economically, the Packers need every merchandise sale they can get, they need every home playoff game they can get and trading away a popular and talented QB doesn't help either of those goals, quite the opposite.

If you look at AR's deal, same thing - trading him away in 2021 makes no sense economically there either -  it was structured to give an out in 2022.

The Packers also invested in the Smith Bros, and economically speaking their time is now as well - and that fits with the idea that the Packers are going to make a run in 2020-2021.

That's also part of why they grabbed Love, because they are planning on drafting late the next 2 years and didn't think they'd have a shot at a QB of his talent in the upcoming 2021-2022 drafts. But he's a future pick, not a 2021 starter

Rodgers decline is relevant unless you actually have a better option, and the Packers don't, yet. You're trading away a "barely Top 10" QB and counting on a QB in Love who has never even played 1 down, that's just not very enlightened -  and that's the nicest way I can phrase that. Love was known as a raw but compelling talent who needed time to develop - your plan to throw him on the field despite the limitations from the pandemic makes zero sense. He's not ready and the Packers knew that when they turned in the card. They knew they had the luxury of time because AR was under contract and playing well.

The front office has taken deliberate steps to give an "aging/declining" QB the very tools he needs to succeed - a strong running game and a bolstered defense
Those fit perfectly with the Shanahan/MLF concept that the Broncos deployed with Elway - to the tune of back -to-back SB wins, despite Elway not being All-World for those runs.

There's really no compelling reason for the Packers trade Rodgers in 2021->  its not in sync with their plans, it makes zero sense economically and they have no suitable replacement available.

[squire12]

5 minutes ago, Shanedorf said:

GASP ! Barely Top 10, perish the thought.
RCon posted his comments awhile back and said AR's about 12th in the league based on various metrics he uses. That seems about right.

Trading him in 2021 makes no sense economically, the Packers need every merchandise sale they can get, they need every home playoff game they can get and trading away a popular and talented QB doesn't help either of those goals, quite the opposite.

If you look at AR's deal, same thing - trading him away in 2021 makes no sense economically there either -  it was structured to give an out in 2022.

The Packers also invested in the Smith Bros, and economically speaking their time is now as well - and that fits with the idea that the Packers are going to make a run in 2020-2021.

That's also part of why they grabbed Love, because they are planning on drafting late the next 2 years and didn't think they'd have a shot at a QB of his talent in the upcoming 2021-2022 drafts. But he's a future pick, not a 2021 starter

Rodgers decline is relevant unless you actually have a better option, and the Packers don't, yet. You're trading away a "barely Top 10" QB and counting on a QB in Love who has never even played 1 down, that's just not very enlightened -  and that's the nicest way I can phrase that. Love was known as a raw but compelling talent who needed time to develop - your plan to throw him on the field despite the limitations from the pandemic makes zero sense. He's not ready and the Packers knew that when they turned in the card. They knew they had the luxury of time because AR was under contract and playing well.

The front office has taken deliberate steps to give an "aging/declining" QB the very tools he needs to succeed - a strong running game and a bolstered defense
Those fit perfectly with the Shanahan/MLF concept that the Broncos deployed with Elway - to the tune of back -to-back SB wins, despite Elway not being All-World for those runs.

There's really no compelling reason for the Packers trade Rodgers in 2021->  its not in sync with their plans, it makes zero sense economically and they have no suitable replacement available.

So does a 2021 cap space of $175-180M with GB being at $185M in commitments change things?   Rollover the $11M and GB is hovering right around even, maybe $3-4M on the plus side.   Figure a few million for rookies and that might mean the departure of Bahktiari and King.... and even Clark.  

The next 12 months will be fascinating in terms of navigation in a NFL with limited cap space resources.....IF the reports of the 2021 cap dropping are accurate. 

[VonKarman]

I understand what you mean Shanedorf, and shared that thought for the first few weeks after the draft. However, assuming that Love doesn't look like a bust during 2020 during TC and during the season:

1 The return you are going to get is bigger in 2021 than in 2022. You give 3 years of AR instead of 2 with no guaranteed money. Rodgers is going to look better in 2020 than in 2021 as well.

2 You free up 73M by trading him instead of 51M. You only get an extra 5M in cap space in 2021, but it's still something, specially when it's going to be a tight year. And you free it without needing to invest extra money on QB.

3 I know that the contract was structured in a way that there is an easy out in 2022 so that our SB window stays open until 2021. However, we have a lot of FA signings coming next year and a probable 40M cap decrease, leaving us with virtually no room to make many of those moves. That (in my opinion) closes our window one year earlier.

 

 

You make a good point with the merchandising sales (that I hadn't thought about), and the shortened preseason is going to be hard on Love. But if Rodgers' decline follows its actual trend I believe it to be better to trade him in 2021 (specially when there are going to be many teams looking for starting QBs) than in 2022. We need to take advantage of Love's rookie contract and I believe the best way for him to learn is by being under center in actual NFL games.

[Mazrimiv]

I can't take any real stance on the idea of trading Rodgers prior to 2021 without seeing how 2020 plays out.  If (1) Love looks the part as a rookie, and (2) the passing game stagnates throughout 2020, it could make sense for Gute to shop Rodgers prior to 2021.

Above all else, Love needs to show something as a rookie.  If Love is flashing ability from the start, Gute should absolutely try to take advantage of that rookie deal.  If Love struggles as a rookie, there is no way Gute even considers trading Rodgers after the season.

Lets say Gute does trade Rodgers after the 2020 season to start taking advantage of the Love rookie deal.  How much is GB going to spend at QB2?  Do they go cheap there too?  I say lets shake up the NFL and go with a Love/Kaepernick QB room in 2021.  The 2021 Love/Kaep jersey sales should eclipse potential Rodgers/Love sales by a good margin.  Lets fill those coffers!

[40Year Pack Fan]

36 minutes ago, Mazrimiv said:

Lets say Gute does trade Rodgers after the 2020 season to start taking advantage of the Love rookie deal.  How much is GB going to spend at QB2?  Do they go cheap there too?  I say lets shake up the NFL and go with a Love/Kaepernick QB room in 2021.  The 2021 Love/Kaep jersey sales should eclipse potential Rodgers/Love sales by a good margin.  Lets fill those coffers!

Let's just throw the franchise completely into the toilet and add Antonio Brown as well....

[Beast]

On 7/26/2020 at 4:00 PM, FAH1223 said:

Rodgers isn't getting traded in 2021, guys. 

He's our QB until 2022 at the earliest. I don't think the COVID-19 impact of the loss in revenue will impact the salary cap in 2021. It'd be too soon. 

You're thinking is completely wrong, quite literally the NFL cap is set up so that one years revenues (or profits) directly effect the next year's.

It will directly effect next year, period.

That being said, the NFL and Union are working on a minimum cap, so that their limited pain next year, it will be effecting next year.

On 7/26/2020 at 5:18 PM, squire12 said:

So does a 2021 cap space of $175-180M with GB being at $185M in commitments change things?   Rollover the $11M and GB is hovering right around even, maybe $3-4M on the plus side.   Figure a few million for rookies and that might mean the departure of Bahktiari and King.... and even Clark.  

The next 12 months will be fascinating in terms of navigation in a NFL with limited cap space resources.....IF the reports of the 2021 cap dropping are accurate. 

Usually the first year of contract are heavy in signing bonus, and quite light on cap hit, so I think Bak and Clark are save. 

 

The rest could be questions though, and teams might have to look into making.cap saving moves.

 

Like can we resign OG Taylor for cheaper then keeping OG Turner and get similar production?

[Packerraymond]

What we do with Rodgers depends on Love, not the money Aaron is making. Forcing Love into the starting lineup before he's ready to save money could be the end of LaFleur and Gute so it won't happen.

[FAH1223]

I just don't see it happening in 2021. Even with the cap going down $20M

 

https://overthecap.com/the-packers-options-with-aaron-rodgers/

 

 

[MacReady]

Ideally Rodgers gets back on track for 4 more years, Love is a great backup for times Rodgers has to miss games here and there, we re-sign Love to a modest 5 year deal, trade Rodgers for a second round pick in 4 years and have a low end QB deal for 5 years.  
 

I’m hoping we trade Love before Rodgers if he flashes in relief duty.  Higher return on a younger QB.

[40Year Pack Fan]

3 hours ago, Outpost31 said:

Ideally Rodgers gets back on track for 4 more years, Love is a great backup for times Rodgers has to miss games here and there, we re-sign Love to a modest 5 year deal, trade Rodgers for a second round pick in 4 years and have a low end QB deal for 5 years.  
 

I’m hoping we trade Love before Rodgers if he flashes in relief duty.  Higher return on a younger QB.

Wishful thinking.....Rodger trajectory is currently on a downward slide, and has to perform a lot better under playoff conditions to get past teams like SF....A new start somewhere else may be what he needs, although he keeps saying he wants to stay in GB....

[40Year Pack Fan]

19 minutes ago, 40Year Pack Fan said:

Wishful thinking.....Rodger trajectory is currently on a downward slide, and has to perform a lot better under playoff conditions to get past teams like SF....A new start somewhere else may be what he needs, although he keeps saying he wants to stay in GB....

Further add, let's not get caught up in the potential productivity of the 40+ year old QB....Tom Brady is an anomaly...He's the Adrian Peterson of quarterbacks....In four years, Rodgers will be forty....By than Tom Brady may be long retired.....

[MacReady]

1 hour ago, 40Year Pack Fan said:

Wishful thinking.....Rodger trajectory is currently on a downward slide, and has to perform a lot better under playoff conditions to get past teams like SF....A new start somewhere else may be what he needs, although he keeps saying he wants to stay in GB....

Realistic thinking.  Favre got a third round pick and a no Vikings clause from the Jets and he had whaffled on retirement for four years.

The jersey sales alone for a crap team might push it to a first round pick. Trades aren’t always about player talentz

[OneTwoSixFive]

10 hours ago, Outpost31 said:

Ideally Rodgers gets back on track for 4 more years, Love is a great backup for times Rodgers has to miss games here and there, we re-sign Love to a modest 5 year deal, trade Rodgers for a second round pick in 4 years and have a low end QB deal for 5 years.  
 

I’m hoping we trade Love before Rodgers if he flashes in relief duty.  Higher return on a younger QB.

This looks like the worst of all worlds.

It is so hard to find a good QB that if Love is good enough to flash, he should be kept for two years and then (assuming he has the talent) take over from AR. Getting rid of your young QB who is showing signs of improving and keeping one so close to the end of his career, is madness.

I laughed out loud and ridiculed NE for dumping Garoppolo and keeping Brady.

Given the failure rate for drafting QBs the chances are rather better than 50/50 that anything you get from trading Love, is a wasted pick on another QB who fails to replace Rodgers. 

If Love looks like he can be starter-level quality, you look at the fates of teams that have chased a QB for decades without much luck (hello Bears) and you keep him.

Edited July 30, 2020 by OneTwoSixFive