Jonathan Wood/Grading the Bears 2020 Offense

[soulman]

Grading the 2020 Chicago Bears Roster: Offense

Johnathan Wood | July 27th, 2020  https://dabearsblog.com/2020/grading-the-bears-roster

Camp is here, which means it’s time for me to grade the roster. Like I did last year, I’ll grade on a 1-10 scale, with 1 being the worst in the NFL, 10 being the best, and 5 being an average NFL unit. Let’s get right down to it.

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Quarterback: 3

Key Players: Mitchell Trubisky, Nick Foles

Roster Depth: Tyler Bray

Mitchell Trubisky was one of the 5 worst quarterbacks with significant playing time in the NFL last year. Nick Foles is on his 3rd team in 3 years and hasn’t started more than 5 games in a season since 2015. The Bears don’t have a good quarterback on the roster, which is a real problem in a quarterback-driven league.

If I were grading just on the starter, this would be a 2. But the Bears are probably going to end up with one of the worst starters and best backups in the NFL, so the better depth bumps it up slightly.

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Running back: 3

Key Players: David Montgomery, Tarik Cohen

Roster Depth: Ryan Nall, Artavis Pierce, Napoleon Maxwell

David Montgomery struggled as a rookie, averaging only 3.7 yards/carry and failing to establish himself in the passing game, which was supposed to be the reason why the Bears traded up for him after getting rid of Jordan Howard. Tarik Cohen followed up a stellar 2018 with the worst season of his career. I think both of these players have the potential to be really good in 2020, but neither was last year, so it’s hard to be super confident in them right now.

Still, I might be willing to give them a 4 as the “starters,” but the atrocious roster depth knocks this down a peg. All 3 backups are undrafted players who have yet to show they can do anything in the NFL. If David Montgomery gets hurt, the Bears don’t have a runner on the roster who you can reasonably trust.

 

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Wide Receivers: 5

Key Players: Allen Robinson, Anthony Miller, Ted Ginn, Cordarrelle Patterson, Riley Ridley, Javon Wims

Roster Depth: Darnell Mooney, Trevor Davis, Reggie Davis, Thomas Ives, Ahmad Wagner

Allen Robinson was 13th in receiving yards among WRs last year, while Anthony Miller was 48th. That puts them both right around average for a WR1 and WR2, respectively, and I think Miller is poised to significantly outperform that in 2020. Ted Ginn was 68th, which makes him a better than expected WR3.

The starting trio probably earns a 6, but it gets dicey in a hurry behind them. Cordarrelle Patterson is a bit weapon, not a full-time WR, and the only other player with meaningful experience is Javon Wims, who was awful in 2019. It would really help the Bears if 2019 4th round pick Riley Ridley takes a step forward this year.

Two additional concerns at WR are special teams and run blocking. Nobody in their top 7 aside from Cordarrelle Patterson can be relied upon as a core ST performer, which is a pivotal role for backup WRs. The Bears also had serious issues with run blocking from their WRs last year, and are bringing back the same coach with basically the same players (just swap out Taylor Gabriel and Ted Ginn).

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Tight Ends: 4

Key Players: Jimmy Graham, Cole Kmet, Demetrius Harris

Roster Depth: Jesper Horsted, JP Holtz, Eric Saubert, Darion Clark

The Bears had a truly atrocious group of tight ends last year, and completely overhauled the position this offseason. However, it’s hard to think any of their additions will be particularly good in 2020. Jimmy Graham is on the downside of his career, though he’s not completely terrible yet, while 2nd round pick Cole Kmet should not be expected to do much as a rookie. Demetrius Harris is competent veteran depth, while the rest of the guys are fighting for 1-2 spots on the end of the roster this year.

This group should definitely be better than 2019, though that’s not exactly saying much, and I don’t know that I can call them good.

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Offensive Tackles: 5

Key Players: Charles Leno, Bobby Massie, Jason Spriggs

Roster Depth: Lachavious Simmons, Badara Traore

Leno and Massie are both solidly established NFL starters, but they both had down years last year. Many fans seem to have taken most issue with Leno, but I thought Massie was appreciably worse, especially in the run game. Both players need to bounce back in 2020, but based on their larger body of work, it’s hard to call them worse than average. Jason Spriggs is also a suitable swing tackle, though it would be very nice if they had managed to add a promising tackle in the draft to fill that role and maybe eventually replace Massie. Instead, they swung on Lachavious Simmons in the 7th round, but he shouldn’t be expected to do anything as a rookie while making the jump from Tennessee State.

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Interior Offensive Line: 3

Key Players: Cody Whitehair, James Daniels, Germain Ifedi, Rashaad Coward

Roster Depth: Alex Bars, Arlington Hambright, Sam Mustipher, Corey Levin, Dieter Eiselen, Dino Boyd

Cody Whitehair is a really solid player who seems locked in on center now after moving to left guard temporarily last year, but the two spots around him are pretty big question marks. James Daniels is the starting left guard, but he struggled mightily in his sophomore season in 2019, though he was less bad when moved back to guard from center. Germain Ifedi was brought in from Seattle to be the starting right guard, a position we haven’t seen him play since his rookie year in 2016. Ifedi and Daniels are both very physically gifted and could end up surprising, but it’s hard to count on either as a plus player right now. The hope is that they can avoid being negatives.

Depth here is a serious concern as well. The only player with real playing experience is Rashaad Coward, but he was awful when pressed into action last year. Lots of fans like 2019 UDFA Alex Bars, but he wasn’t good enough to supplant Coward last year, and college coach Harry Heistand is no longer with the Bears, so he is no lock to make the roster. Seventh round pick Arlington Hambright is very athletic but raw, so nothing should be expected of him as a rookie.

[WindyCity]

Reported for being critical of Pace’s personnel work on offense.

Edited July 27, 2020 by WindyCity

[WindyCity]

The offense is bad.

Very little was done personnel wise to help them.
 

I am not sure where significant improvement is going to come from.

[soulman]

Not very optimistic is he?  So.....how do I see it all?

QB:  Maybe I have a bit more faith in Mitch at the moment than Wood does.  His career as an NFL starter is on the line and he knows it.  The physical stuff is mostly all there so the question is can DeFilippo get his head screwed on straight and get him making better decisions?  If not I'm good with Foles taking over but in either case if we can't sustain a decent running game from week to week and get our TEs involved as major pass catchers it won't make any difference whose playing QB.  Both will struggle.

RB: I gotta rate us higher than that if only based on potential.  Montgomery didn't do any worse than Payton did as a rookie and I do see some similarities in them as far as their style and toughness.  Cohen can also do far better if used correctly.  Last season was a disaster for a whole lot reasons that led to poor coordination of our run blocking and a ton of missed block.  Tough for any back to survive that looking good so Lazor and Castillo need to work it out.  Depth however is still a concern.

WR:  Here again poor pass blocking, bad play calling, and inconsistent QB play had it's impact.  ARob is a solid #1 guy.  It's now or never time for Miller to break out as a slot guy.  Ginn can still cause secondaries some nightmares 'til Mooney gets his game down and I do think like Miller, he'll surprise some people as a rookie.  Other than that I see Ridley moving up as a dependable possession guy.  Patterson is a utility only guy and Wims is on the bubble and ARob's backup.

TE:  Much better crew than last season yet still somewhat of a mystery.  Not much else to say.

OL:  I'm gonna take them as a whole and give them a partial pass for 2019.  We already know they can play better what we don't know is exactly why they didn't in 2019 but I suspect much of it was due to some bad decisions, unexpected injuries and the failure of Long to make a comeback, and enough confusion cause by inexperience to make them look like they were holding a Chinese Firedrill at times.  I expect as much or more improvement here as anywhere.  Without it we are screwed.

[WindyCity]

The only one I disagree with is WR, I think it is above average because Robinson who is elite and the depth is solid.

OT is a 4-5 based on careers, but last season they were really bad and who knows if they bounce back.

[JAF-N72EX]

This is why Pace/Nagy replaced damn near the entire offensive personnel with 4 guys who have about a combined 100 years of coaching experience between them.  All of which who have seen success. 

This is Nagy's first HC job and having that much veteran experience on the staff to help with the day to day is invaluable. 

Lazor and Flip both have play-calling experience so they can hopefully help fine tune Nagy's scheme and playbook.  They also have experience working directly with QB's and Mitch needs all the help he can get. Castillo has alot of experience as a run game coordinator and OL coach. TE coach Clany Barone has improved every single NFL team that he has coached and has OL coaching experience.

The biggest improvement we've seen is at the TE position which will be huge for the offense in general. Kmet, Graham, and Harris are a much better group than last year. Barone has worked with TE's like Gates and Rudolph and I think he's a great fit to help develop Kmet. 

 

[soulman]

3 minutes ago, JustAnotherFan said:

This is why Pace/Nagy replaced damn near the entire offensive personnel with 4 guys who have about a combined 100 years of coaching experience between them.  All of which who have seen success. 

This is Nagy's first HC job and having that much veteran experience on the staff to help with the day to day is invaluable. 

Lazor and Flip both have play-calling experience so they can hopefully help fine tune Nagy's scheme and playbook.  They also have experience working directly with QB's and Mitch needs all the help he can get. Castillo has alot of experience as a run game coordinator and OL coach. TE coach Clany Barone has improved every single NFL team that he has coached and has OL coaching experience.

The biggest improvement we've seen is at the TE position which will be huge for the offense in general. Kmet, Graham, and Harris are a much better group than last year. Barone has worked with TE's like Gates and Rudolph and I think he's a great fit to help develop Kmet. 

 

I tend to agree thinking that we aren't as devoid of talent as we have been getting them all lined up and playing to their maximum ability.

Any gains we see on offense this year will be almost entirely due to the coaching staff and Pace having plugged as many key holes as he could.

[JAF-N72EX]

10 minutes ago, soulman said:

I tend to agree thinking that we aren't as devoid of talent as we have been getting them all lined up and playing to their maximum ability.

Any gains we see on offense this year will be almost entirely due to the coaching staff and Pace having plugged as many key holes as he could.

Yep. We'll see if it translates onto the field but I def see the offense being better this season (if there is a season).  How much better? I don't know, but better nonetheless.  With this defense we don't need a top-10 offense, just one that is consistent enough to keep the defense rested. 

[WindyCity]

1 hour ago, JustAnotherFan said:

Yep. We'll see if it translates onto the field but I def see the offense being better this season (if there is a season).  How much better? I don't know, but better nonetheless.  With this defense we don't need a top-10 offense, just one that is consistent enough to keep the defense rested. 

I think we need an offense better than that to be an actual contender.

Going from 29th to 16th is a massive improvement, I just don’t see enough improvement to make a jump to the middle of the pack.

[JAF-N72EX]

1 hour ago, WindyCity said:

I think we need an offense better than that to be an actual contender.

Going from 29th to 16th is a massive improvement, I just don’t see enough improvement to make a jump to the middle of the pack.

The offense was 25th in DVOA last year (-10.7%) and finished with a weighted DVOA of -9.4%.  We made the playoffs with a 20th ranked offense (-3.4%) in 2018 and a weighted DVOA of -2.3%.  FYI, -3.4% would've been good for 18th in the league last year, and -2.3% would've been good for 17th.

For the reasons said above, I like the staff that Pace/Nagy has put together and I don't think it's a stretch to say that we could have a slightly better offense this year than we did in 2018. 

For that to happen though, Nagy needs to step up. The fact that he brought in some experienced coaches tells me that he is at least willing to listen and learn. 

The relatively light defensive schedule offers a good opportunity for the offense to succeed.

@Detroit Lions
New York Giants
@Atlanta Falcons
Indianapolis Colts
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
@Carolina Panthers
@Los Angeles Rams
New Orleans Saints
@Tennessee Titans
Minnesota Vikings
Bye Week
@Green Bay Packers
Detroit Lions
Houston Texans
@Minnesota Vikings
@Jacksonville Jaguars
Green Bay Packers

 Vikes, Rams, Saints, Titans and Bucs are all tough defenses but DET x2, NYG, JAX, HOU, CAR were all bottom-10 defenses last year, while GB x2, ATL and IND finished 15th, 17th and 20th, respectively. That's 10 games against average-to-bad defenses. Some of them improved on paper, some got worse, and others stayed the same.

---The Lions defense was revamped this offseason but they are still likely a year or two away from being competitive. 

---The Packers defense are the Packers defense. Piled all of that money and resources and still only finished 15th last year and still had trouble stopping the run (23rd). And that was staying healthy, something I doubt happens again. 

----I won't question a Zimmer led defense until he gives me a reason to but they did lose 3 key starters in Linvel Joseph, Everson Griffen and Xavier Rhodes. That's over 2,000 snaps combined that need to be accounted for. 

[abstract_thought]

2 hours ago, JustAnotherFan said:

The offense was 25th in DVOA last year (-10.7%) and finished with a weighted DVOA of -9.4%.  We made the playoffs with a 20th ranked offense (-3.4%) in 2018 and a weighted DVOA of -2.3%.  FYI, -3.4% would've been good for 18th in the league last year, and -2.3% would've been good for 17th.

For the reasons said above, I like the staff that Pace/Nagy has put together and I don't think it's a stretch to say that we could have a slightly better offense this year than we did in 2018. 

For that to happen though, Nagy needs to step up. The fact that he brought in some experienced coaches tells me that he is at least willing to listen and learn. 

The relatively light defensive schedule offers a good opportunity for the offense to succeed.

@Detroit Lions
New York Giants
@Atlanta Falcons
Indianapolis Colts
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
@Carolina Panthers
@Los Angeles Rams
New Orleans Saints
@Tennessee Titans
Minnesota Vikings
Bye Week
@Green Bay Packers
Detroit Lions
Houston Texans
@Minnesota Vikings
@Jacksonville Jaguars
Green Bay Packers

 Vikes, Rams, Saints, Titans and Bucs are all tough defenses but DET x2, NYG, JAX, HOU, CAR were all bottom-10 defenses last year, while GB x2, ATL and IND finished 15th, 17th and 20th, respectively. That's 10 games against average-to-bad defenses. Some of them improved on paper, some got worse, and others stayed the same.

---The Lions defense was revamped this offseason but they are still likely a year or two away from being competitive. 

---The Packers defense are the Packers defense. Piled all of that money and resources and still only finished 15th last year and still had trouble stopping the run (23rd). And that was staying healthy, something I doubt happens again. 

----I won't question a Zimmer led defense until he gives me a reason to but they did lose 3 key starters in Linvel Joseph, Everson Griffen and Xavier Rhodes. That's over 2,000 snaps combined that need to be accounted for. 

FWIW the Colts, Lions, Panthers, and Falcons put big emphasis on improving their defenses this offseason.

I think estimating these things based on previous years is challenging but I'll just say that in 2018 the Bears had a historically great defense by the standards of DVOA. It's highly unlikely that the 2020 unit will repeat that performance. Most likely the Bears will need an average offensive output to make the playoffs.

[JAF-N72EX]

31 minutes ago, abstract_thought said:

FWIW the Colts, Lions, Panthers, and Falcons put big emphasis on improving their defenses this offseason.

I think estimating these things based on previous years is challenging but I'll just say that in 2018 the Bears had a historically great defense by the standards of DVOA. It's highly unlikely that the 2020 unit will repeat that performance. Most likely the Bears will need an average offensive output to make the playoffs.

I agree with the bolded. I always hate when people base it on previous years. That's why I said some of them improved and some didn't. IMo, the ones that did improve just haven't improved enough to be a real concern. 

Example, IMO, all 4 of those defenses you listed are still a year out from competing. The Colts, Falcons, and Lions are in total rebuild mode. The Panthers defense just lost the heart and soul of their team in Keuchly. Plus, the defense is going to be supported by an offense led by Teddy Bridgewater and a RB in McCaffery, who is coming off of a season where he had over 400 touches. That's alot of wear and tear for a RB. And history hasn't been too nice to RB's with that many touches in a season. 

[WindyCity]

I think that the X factor to the offense being better is Cole Kmet.

If the Bears can get a TE who is a consistent blocker and also adds some what of a threat in the passing game it would make them less predictable 

[JAF-N72EX]

1 hour ago, WindyCity said:

I think that the X factor to the offense being better is Cole Kmet.

If the Bears can get a TE who is a consistent blocker and also adds some what of a threat in the passing game it would make them less predictable 

 It would also keep from having to use Cohen as much too. 

[abstract_thought]

13 hours ago, JustAnotherFan said:

I agree with the bolded. I always hate when people base it on previous years. That's why I said some of them improved and some didn't. IMo, the ones that did improve just haven't improved enough to be a real concern. 

Example, IMO, all 4 of those defenses you listed are still a year out from competing. The Colts, Falcons, and Lions are in total rebuild mode. The Panthers defense just lost the heart and soul of their team in Keuchly. Plus, the defense is going to be supported by an offense led by Teddy Bridgewater and a RB in McCaffery, who is coming off of a season where he had over 400 touches. That's alot of wear and tear for a RB. And history hasn't been too nice to RB's with that many touches in a season. 

Certainly, just pointing out that all of those teams made significant investments in their defenses this season. Indianapolis traded for DeForest Buckner. The Panthers spent every draft pick on defense.

Bottom line - trying to predict something as fickle as the strength of individual NFL units is a big challenge. The amount of roster change, coaching change, schedule change, and injury can make results very inconsistent from season to season.