Jonathan Wood: Grading the Bears 2020 Defense/ST

[soulman]

Grading the 2020 Chicago Bears Roster: Defense & Specials

Johnathan Wood | July 28th, 2020  https://dabearsblog.com/2020/grading-the-2020-chicago-bears-roster-defense-specials

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Defensive Line: 7

Key Players: Akiem Hicks, Eddie Goldman, Bilal Nichols, Roy Robertson-Harris

Roster Depth: Brent Urban, Abdullah Anderson, John Jenkins, Trevon McSwain, Lee Autry

I went back and forth between a 7 and an 8 for this one. Akiem Hicks is a monster, assuming he can return to his pre-injury form in 2020. Eddie Goldman is a really good run-stuffing nose tackle, and Roy Robertson-Harris provides some nice juice as a situational pass rusher.

The wild card here is Bilal Nichols, who took a step back last year after a promising rookie season in 2018. If he can step up, this group should be really good. If he doesn’t, then they look a bit more like Hicks and a bunch of situational pieces. Brent Urban and Abdullah Anderson are both fine end of the roster players who won’t get pushed around too badly against the run but don’t offer much as pass rushers.

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Edge rushers: 9

Key Players: Khalil Mack, Robert Quinn, Barkevious Mingo

Roster Depth: Trevis Gipson, Isaiah Irving, James Vaughters, LaCale London, Ledarius Mack

Mack and Quinn are the headliners here, as the duo might be the best pass-rushing tandem in the NFL. Just don’t look too closely at the depth behind them, because it’s ugly. Mingo is a suitable coverage player and run defender, but offers nothing in the way of pass rush. Nobody else has any notable NFL experience.

If Mack and Quinn stay healthy, this is one of the best groups in the NFL. If one (or God forbid both) of them gets hurt, the Bears are in trouble.

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Inside linebackers: 7

Key Players: Danny Trevathan, Roquan Smith, Joel Iyiegbuniwe, Josh Woods

Roster Depth: Rashad Smith, KeAndre Jones

Stop me if you’ve heard this before: the starters are really good, but the depth is scary. Trevathan in particular is a really solid, smart player, while Roquan Smith has flashed all-pro ability through two years but needs to be more consistent. Both players ended 2019 on injured reserve and need to stay healthy this year, because the guys fighting for time behind them haven’t done much outside of special teams. Nick Kwiatkoski and Kevin Pierre-Louis, who both played very well for extended stretches in 2019, are gone.

 

If Trevathan returns to pre-injury form and Smith takes the next step, this could be among the best ILB duos in the NFL. If Smith stays inconsistent and Trevathan starts to show signs of age, or if one or both of them get hurt again, the Bears could be in trouble in the middle of their defense.

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Cornerbacks: 6

Key Players: Kyle Fuller, Jaylon Johnson, Buster Skrine, Kevin Toliver, Artie Burns

Roster Depth: Duke Shelley, Kindle Vildor, Tre Roberson, Sherrick McManis, Michael Joseph, Stephen Denmark, Xavier Crawford

Kyle Fuller had a down year in 2019 but is generally a top 10-15 CB. Buster Skrine is a good nickel back. 2nd round pick Jaylon Johnson is expected to grab the starting CB2 job sooner rather than later, but he’ll have to beat out Kevin Toliver and Artie Burns to do so. That shouldn’t be too difficult, as neither player has impressed much in their NFL careers so far.

If Johnson can step in at an acceptable level fairly quickly, this group is probably more of a 7, but it’s hard to have confidence in them with a question mark at CB2. Depth is something of strength here though, as there are 9 guys (the 5 named above plus Duke Shelley, Kindle Vildor, Tre Roberson, and Sherrick McManis) with a real shot to make the roster.

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Safeties: 8

Key Players: Eddie Jackson, Tashaun Gipson, Deon Bush, Jordan Lucas

Roster Depth: DeAndre Houston-Carson

Eddie Jackson is one of the best coverage safeties in the NFL. Tashaun Gipson is a solid player next to him, assuming he can return to health. Deon Bush provides quality depth, while Jordan Lucas has some decent playing experience as well. This is one of the rare spots where the Bears should feel good both about their starters and their depth.

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Specialists: 4

Key Players: Pat O’Donnell, Patrick Scales, Eddy Pineiro

Roster Depth: Ramiz Ahmed

O’Donnell and Scales are both perfectly adequate, but nothing special. They’re pretty much the definition of a 5. Pineiro had a decent debut season last year, but struggled to make kicks from beyond 40 yards, and he’ll be pushed in training camp this year by Ramiz Ahmed. The lack of clarity at kicker – easily the most important specialist role – drops this ranking.

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Overall: 5.3

The overall average for all 12 position groups is a 5.3, which fits the Bears’ projected win total of 8.5 fairly well. This is far from a balanced roster, however, as the offense averaged a 3.8, with no group above a 5, while the defense averaged a 7.4, with no group below a 6. Basically, the worst position group on defense is still better than the best position group on offense.

The offense is weird because there aren’t any positions that I expect to be a total dumpster fire (unlike QB, TE, and interior OL ended up being last year), but there also aren’t any positions that I see as clearly strengths. Anthony Miller emerging at WR could change that, as could David Montgomery having a breakout year at RB. Still, the top-end talent on offense is clearly lacking, as only Allen Robinson and Cody Whitehair are clearly high quality players on that side of the ball.

On defense, the lack of depth (especially at edge rusher and ILB) is a real concern, but otherwise they have several clear strengths and no real weaknesses except maybe CB2. That’s how you build a really strong unit, though a few key injuries could change that in a hurry.

Still, I think it’s fair to say the defense has a likely range of outcomes somewhere between great and good, while the offense is hoping to avoid a repeat as a terrible unit, with a realistic best-case scenario as somewhere around average. It’s really hard to win a Super Bowl with an average or worse offense, but teams like the 2015 Broncos have shown that you can ride a dominant defense to a championship. It’s not a likely outcome for the Bears this year, but it’s not completely out of the realm of possibility if everything clicks.

 

[soulman]

50 minutes ago, soulman said:

On defense, the lack of depth (especially at edge rusher and ILB) is a real concern,

Here is where I believe Wood hits the nail squarely on the head but we could just as easily say the same about all three of our NFCN opponents as well at the very least.

With two top and highly paid edge rushers no team is likely to have the kind of depth that could easily replace either of them.  This is where we have to depend on someone rising from the ranks and over producing based on their draft status.  As a rookie Irving showed some stuff in preseason but has never been able to ascend beyond that during the regular season.   He seems to have topped out. 

This years version of Irving is Trevis Gipson and he'll have a shot at learning from two of the very best in the NFL.  Will it help or will he also fade into being no more than a backup caliber player?  One guy who intrigues me as a pure pass rusher is Vaughters.  At 6'1/256lbs he's cut more from the mold of a Dwight Freeney type and he's already full grown at age 27 but he has the same kind of non-stop motor that makes Khalil Mack so effective.  He's worth watching.

Beyond that Mingo can probably do most of what Leonard Floyd provided in coverage but as far as pass rush goes he's not the guy to look for help from.  As much as anything I believe he was signed as a ST honcho and a general purpose OLB.  Let's hope one of the others breaks out a bit and shows some upside.  He has "Baby Mack" listed as an OLB but I think of him more as a Shea McClellin type of ILB you can move around use to rush from there.  But whatta I know?

Having lost both Kwit and KP-L in FA ILB may be any even bigger concern but then we found these two so we just need to replicate their success with two others.

IMHO "Iggy" is very much a poor man's Roquan Smith and almost strictly a coverage ILB we can also blitz and play almost like a SS.  Much like Smith he's at a huge size disadvantage when forced to handle blockers so he has to be kept "clean".  Josh Wood is a little bigger and a former college SS beefed up to ILB size.  He has to prove he can handle the role as DT's backup and be as good in coverage as DT while still being effective against the run.

Behind these four we got nuttin' but two undersized rookies so we might expect Pace to keep his eye on the waiver wire looking for another KP-L with a little more size and experience.  This is why I also favor trying "Baby Mack" at ILB or possibly Vaughters.  We could use more depth than we have for sure.

The rest shapes up pretty well as far as both starting talent and depth.  We can always use a little more on the DL so hopefully Bilal Nichols gets back on track and RRH steps up big time in this contract year.  Other than that we've got five guys competing for one backup spot and/or a PS role.

As for ST I'm more focused on our coverage and return teams.  We have two top level return men we should be breaking loose more than we have.  O'Donnell is a sufficient punter who knows the SF winds and an experience PK holder.  Piniero had one bad stretch last season but showed enough so far to get another year to improve a bit more.  He has good leg strength and they've had him add weight hoping to enhance that even more so I expect him to stay on for another year.  We both could and have done far worse.  Gimme 90% accuracy on all PKs and he's our guy longer term.

 

Edited July 28, 2020 by soulman

[WindyCity]

We need the big contracts to stay healthy. A lot invested in the defense in terms of cap resources.