Is Geno Atkins a Hall of Famer?

[THE DUKE]

15 hours ago, RaidersAreOne said:

Are his stats good enough? 368 tackles, 100 TFL, 75.5 sacks, 8 FF.

Warren Sapp career stats (played through age 35)

578 tackles
96.5 sacks
19 FF
91 TFL
4 double digit sack seasons

Geno Atkins (through age 31 season)

383 tackles
75.5 sacks
8 FF
100 TFL
3 double digit sack seasons

If Geno plays 4 more years like Sapp, he has a shot at catching him in sacks and could possibly break 100 for his career, likely falls short in FF and tackles (although tackles he could get within 30-40), but already has more tackles for loss in his career than Sapp did, which shows his value in the run game as well as being a pass rusher.  If Geno passes 100 sacks, i'd call him a lock, and even as it stands, as long as he plays a few more years I'd say he has a decent shot at it considering he made the All Decade team for the 2010's.  Geno is regarded higher by football people than the average fan.

[indifference]

No. Great player but was never on quality teams to receive accolades to his resume. Atkins is Hall of Very good 

[diamondbull424]

I have Atkins in the Hall of Very Good.

For me, I view Atkins on the same level as Ngata to this point in their respective careers. Ngata also had 2 All Pro awards and his peak seasons were just as dominant as Geno Atkins with both having 18 and 17 AV graded seasons respectively. Though 10 seasons in Atkins is currently sitting at 104 AV points while Ngata was at 113 AV points.

Throw in the fact that Ngata was on multiple top 5 defenses and won a SB ring; whereas Atkins has produced and landed on the All Decade team, but it hasn’t led to a lot of wins (His overall record is 72-79-2 in the regular season) and I find their cases similar. Ngata ended up finishing his career on a bit of a low note. I felt he would’ve needed an additional All Pro team (15 AV) type season and another good (8-10 AV) type of season after 30.

So again, if I don’t think Ngata was a HOF, I’m holding Atkins to those same standards. For him to make it, I would need to see him have an additional AP type season, finish above a .500 career record, and to either win a SB or have an additional good season.

[TecmoSuperJoe]

9 hours ago, diamondbull424 said:

I have Atkins in the Hall of Very Good.

For me, I view Atkins on the same level as Ngata to this point in their respective careers. Ngata also had 2 All Pro awards and his peak seasons were just as dominant as Geno Atkins with both having 18 and 17 AV graded seasons respectively. Though 10 seasons in Atkins is currently sitting at 104 AV points while Ngata was at 113 AV points.

Throw in the fact that Ngata was on multiple top 5 defenses and won a SB ring; whereas Atkins has produced and landed on the All Decade team, but it hasn’t led to a lot of wins (His overall record is 72-79-2 in the regular season) and I find their cases similar. Ngata ended up finishing his career on a bit of a low note. I felt he would’ve needed an additional All Pro team (15 AV) type season and another good (8-10 AV) type of season after 30.

So again, if I don’t think Ngata was a HOF, I’m holding Atkins to those same standards. For him to make it, I would need to see him have an additional AP type season, finish above a .500 career record, and to either win a SB or have an additional good season.

You're trotting out W/L record for a defensive lineman? Quick, someone kick Cortez Kennedy out of the HOF!!!  

[Forge]

Using the win / loss record of a players team to evaluate a defensive lineman's HOF worthiness...what a time to be alive. 

[Shanedorf]

43 minutes ago, Forge said:

Using the win / loss record of a players team to evaluate a defensive lineman's HOF worthiness...what a time to be alive. 

For the most part, yes...but there's some validity to the overall sentiment in terms of the HOF debate

As I mentioned in the Matt Ryan thread, the HOF voters are predominantly sports writers and as such - they're mythmakers and storytellers.
Had Geno played in more "Big Games", critical playoff match-ups and even SBs,  his worth would be more widely appreciated and his accomplishments more widely lauded.

Its certainly not his fault his team didn't win more, but winning more surely would have helped his HOF candidacy  (FAME being the operative word)

[Forge]

2 minutes ago, Shanedorf said:

For the most part, yes...but there's some validity to the overall sentiment in terms of the HOF debate

As I mentioned in the Matt Ryan thread, the HOF voters are predominantly sports writers and as such - they're mythmakers and storytellers.
Had Geno played in more "Big Games", critical playoff match-ups and even SBs,  his worth would be more widely appreciated and his accomplishments more widely lauded.

Its certainly not his fault his team didn't win more, but winning more surely would have helped his HOF candidacy  (FAME being the operative word)

For QBs, I understand this narrative. In a sense, I suppose it even makes sense, though I think the QB win loss record is vastly overrated. But to put that on a defensive lineman is insanity. 

[Forge]

That's not to say that I disagree with the idea that narratives are important...just as I believe personal relationships are important to possible enshrinement because voters are people. It's why I think Eli gets in, why I think Gore gets in. 

Would having a huge game in a big moment for a good team help? Sure...I Don't know that not being that situation actively hurts or is graded against someone for enshrinement.

[diamondbull424]

13 hours ago, TecmoSuperJoe said:

You're trotting out W/L record for a defensive lineman? Quick, someone kick Cortez Kennedy out of the HOF!!!  

If that’s all you got from my post then sure. More accurately I said that Atkins has been on a losing franchise and on a defense that has achieved a lot less. I’m all about rewarding players, however if there are two players that I believe were similarly dominant, i side with the guy that won more.

10 Seasons- Atkins

30, 28, 17, 17, 10, 14, 5, 10, 17, 17

9 Seasons- Ngata
8, 7, 19, 1, 6, 4, 2, 5, 1

As it stands I acknowledge Atkins to have been a force. I also acknowledge that he’s got a strong case for the HOF, but I think he needs more juice. Just like I thought Ngata still needed more juice. Ngata played on far better defenses, only being in double digits once in his Baltimore career while Atkins has only been in single digits once in his career. Both had similar peak dominance. Ngata just sort of fell off to end his career and thus he has no shot. Atkins, like I said still needs more juice. Whether it’s ending his career on a strong winning note along with a few more really good (dare I say pro bowl level) seasons; an AP type season and more wins; an AP type season and another PB level season. You can mix and match.

But sure, with the explosiveness of that offense, with a QB prospect that just had the greatest season in college football history... I see no reason why the Bengals should continue a trend of those defensive finishes and team losing when you’ve got a guy who should be able to lead that defensive room to better heights. To me a no questions asked HOF player has a specific amount of pride and would refuse to ever see their unit perform as less than.

Ngata proved to me that with his career in Detroit, he wasn’t that guy. His defense finished 32nd in the league. If Atkins continues to lead defenses that finish in the bottom 5 of the league and that team continues to lose... than no, I don’t view him as a HOF player.

3 hours ago, Forge said:

Using the win / loss record of a players team to evaluate a defensive lineman's HOF worthiness...what a time to be alive. 

I suppose that’s all you got out of that as well. The thing I love about the NFL HOF to a degree is that it’s still remained exclusive to a degree. The NBA opened up the HOF to almost every player who made a few All Star games in the 00s.

Sure are there players in the NFL HOF that I don’t agree with, sure. But when guys part of legendary units (that won a lot) like Torry Holt with a similar success resume but with more wins aren’t in the HOF than it’s hard for me to include guys who haven’t had that same level of team success. Some will discount that and that’s fair, but I’d rather the HOF be a sort of magnum opus of football.

I don’t discriminate against just specific teams or players. Haloti Ngata was IMO the 5th best player in Ravens history when at his peak only behind Ray, Lamar, Reed, and JO. He was better than Yanda and Suggs. However he needed a little more juice. Suggs I think gets in because of his longevity, his extra SB, and his playoff stats. Yanda needed a little bit of extra juice, but then closed his career off by being a part of the most productive rushing attack in NFL history and blocking for the second ever unanimous MVP, finished with the most wins in team history. Another ring would have been the icing on the cake, however both players closed out their career on a bang and have erased all doubt about their worthiness going to the HOF in my eyes. Though two years ago I was still, for both players, in the team of “Hall of Very Good”.

Atkins is still on the precipice. Could he make the HOF? Absolutely. I just think he needs to do a few things to erase my doubt. Could he retire today and still get in? Sure, but I’m only answering this question from how my mentality would be if I were a voter.

[TecmoSuperJoe]

5 hours ago, diamondbull424 said:

If that’s all you got from my post then sure. More accurately I said that Atkins has been on a losing franchise and on a defense that has achieved a lot less. I’m all about rewarding players, however if there are two players that I believe were similarly dominant, i side with the guy that won more.

10 Seasons- Atkins

30, 28, 17, 17, 10, 14, 5, 10, 17, 17

9 Seasons- Ngata
8, 7, 19, 1, 6, 4, 2, 5, 1

As it stands I acknowledge Atkins to have been a force. I also acknowledge that he’s got a strong case for the HOF, but I think he needs more juice. Just like I thought Ngata still needed more juice. Ngata played on far better defenses, only being in double digits once in his Baltimore career while Atkins has only been in single digits once in his career. Both had similar peak dominance. Ngata just sort of fell off to end his career and thus he has no shot. Atkins, like I said still needs more juice. Whether it’s ending his career on a strong winning note along with a few more really good (dare I say pro bowl level) seasons; an AP type season and more wins; an AP type season and another PB level season. You can mix and match.

But sure, with the explosiveness of that offense, with a QB prospect that just had the greatest season in college football history... I see no reason why the Bengals should continue a trend of those defensive finishes and team losing when you’ve got a guy who should be able to lead that defensive room to better heights. To me a no questions asked HOF player has a specific amount of pride and would refuse to ever see their unit perform as less than.

Ngata proved to me that with his career in Detroit, he wasn’t that guy. His defense finished 32nd in the league. If Atkins continues to lead defenses that finish in the bottom 5 of the league and that team continues to lose... than no, I don’t view him as a HOF player.

That's not all I took from what you stated, but regardless, utilizing W/L for a defensive lineman is just looney tunes, and I wanted to spotlight that as an outlier to the rest of your case in regards to Atkins' chances for the HOF. **** Butkus never even went to the playoffs, and he's a HOF player. Cortez Kennedy was defensive player of the year on a 2-14 team, and only played in one career playoff game. He's in. For a QB, the one position that most influences wins and losses, it's an easier pill to swallow. Even then arguing it's logic for importance is a highwire act at best, and a nutty pitfall at worst. For a defensive lineman though, just no. Obviously more exposure helps any player, and winning is important, but the best defensive lineman isn't going to push the needle far enough to consistently churn out wins without substantial help. It's more about the defensive unit no matter how good the player is.  

[BlaqOptic]

At first I thought "No" but upon further looking at this resume he's got Two 1st Team All-Pros, 8 Pro Bowls, and an All-Decade nod. He will probably be a Vet Committee inductee.

[RandyMossIsBoss]

Suh, Atkins and Cox (the other all-decade DTs besides Donald who is obviously a shoe-in) will all probably end up with similar resumes, but I highly doubt all 3 get in. Maybe 1 will. Suh is the biggest name among that group (combination of amazing college career, living up to hype immediately, and then the dirty play), has 3 1st teams, but it doesn't look like he will have longevity of the other 2 and the dirty play might hurt him? Atkins is the best pass rusher so will end up with best numbers, but he has spent most of his career on one of the "quietest" teams in the in the league, playing for only 1 "good" team (2015) which unfortunately was 1 and done due to Dalton injury. Cox has most team success with his SB ring, but much of his reputation comes from his run defense, which historically hasn't been held in very high regard by the committee.

 

I would say 1 more 1st team for Suh gets him in (a resurgence would make his resume look very impressive IMO, 4 1st teams over 11 seasons?), 2 more 1st teams for Cox gets him in (6 total all-pros), and for Geno just piling on the numbers for a few more years. Hit 100 sacks for sure, get to like 10 pro bowls, those would both be nice benchmarks that I think could get him in. Either way, I don't think any of these DTs will do enough to be a "lock" when their career ends, and again, I think only 1 gets in when it's all said and done.

 

McCoy deserves to be in this convo as well, HOF potential DTs of the 2010s, but not getting on the all-decade team instantly hurts the HOF chances a bit and like Suh, he looks like his out of gas. 

 

 

PFR's "HOF Monitor" tool assigns a score, based on numbers and accolades, for a players careers. Average DT who has been inducted has a score of 114.18 (Lilly leads w/ 159.2, lowest in the hall is Curley Culp who retired in 1981 w/ 50.85.

Donald- 102.83 in 6 seasons

Atkins- 75.60 in 10 seasons

Suh- 73.73 in 10 seasons

Cox- 67.28 in 8 seasons

McCoy- 42.95 in 10 seasons (all decade team must be huge for this metric since nearly every HOFer at a position w/ 4 spots was on the all-decade team)

 

Kevin Williams has highest score while not being in HOF at 103.28. Only just became eligible.

Edited August 4, 2020 by RandyMossIsBoss

[diamondbull424]

9 hours ago, RandyMossIsBoss said:

Suh, Atkins and Cox (the other all-decade DTs besides Donald who is obviously a shoe-in) will all probably end up with similar resumes, but I highly doubt all 3 get in. Maybe 1 will. Suh is the biggest name among that group (combination of amazing college career, living up to hype immediately, and then the dirty play), has 3 1st teams, but it doesn't look like he will have longevity of the other 2 and the dirty play might hurt him? Atkins is the best pass rusher so will end up with best numbers, but he has spent most of his career on one of the "quietest" teams in the in the league, playing for only 1 "good" team (2015) which unfortunately was 1 and done due to Dalton injury. Cox has most team success with his SB ring, but much of his reputation comes from his run defense, which historically hasn't been held in very high regard by the committee.

 

I would say 1 more 1st team for Suh gets him in (a resurgence would make his resume look very impressive IMO, 4 1st teams over 11 seasons?), 2 more 1st teams for Cox gets him in (6 total all-pros), and for Geno just piling on the numbers for a few more years. Hit 100 sacks for sure, get to like 10 pro bowls, those would both be nice benchmarks that I think could get him in. Either way, I don't think any of these DTs will do enough to be a "lock" when their career ends, and again, I think only 1 gets in when it's all said and done.

 

McCoy deserves to be in this convo as well, HOF potential DTs of the 2010s, but not getting on the all-decade team instantly hurts the HOF chances a bit and like Suh, he looks like his out of gas. 

 

 

PFR's "HOF Monitor" tool assigns a score, based on numbers and accolades, for a players careers. Average DT who has been inducted has a score of 114.18 (Lilly leads w/ 159.2, lowest in the hall is Curley Culp who retired in 1981 w/ 50.85.

Donald- 102.83 in 6 seasons

Atkins- 75.60 in 10 seasons

Suh- 73.73 in 10 seasons

Cox- 67.28 in 8 seasons

McCoy- 42.95 in 10 seasons (all decade team must be huge for this metric since nearly every HOFer at a position w/ 4 spots was on the all-decade team)

 

Kevin Williams has highest score while not being in HOF at 103.28. Only just became eligible.

Good stuff. Yeah I saw their HOFm tool as well when I was looking this up. Either they have to become more lax with DI moving forward or it’s unlikely any of these guys make it based off of those averages it would seem.

But like you said, perhaps one more will be there to help represent the generation. I think you’re right Cox suffers from a similar run stuffing quality as Ngata, the voters will likely hold that against him, he would require a big finish. So it comes down between Suh and Atkins probably. We know who the higher character guy is in Atkins, but Suh’s definitely got the superior name recognition.

I think with Suh playing on that Bucs team with Brady and Atkins stuck in Cincy, chances are Atkins has a higher chance of going out with a whimper. If Suh keeps his on field behavior clean and Brady says a couple nice works about him to the media... I can easily see a scenario where suddenly his image is reframed some as “misunderstood” and “a competitor that sometimes let his emotions get the best of him” If he can even just make another 2 PBs to close his career and especially if he gets a ring, which given his 9 AV season last year it’s possible he could make the PBs if the Bucs make some noise... than I think he could make it as the second guy over Atkins.

We know Donald is making it though, voters might just leave it at him. We know DI isn’t the most sexy HOF position around.

[JAF-N72EX]

10 hours ago, RandyMossIsBoss said:

Suh, Atkins and Cox (the other all-decade DTs besides Donald who is obviously a shoe-in) will all probably end up with similar resumes, but I highly doubt all 3 get in. Maybe 1 will. Suh is the biggest name among that group (combination of amazing college career, living up to hype immediately, and then the dirty play), has 3 1st teams, but it doesn't look like he will have longevity of the other 2 and the dirty play might hurt him? Atkins is the best pass rusher so will end up with best numbers, but he has spent most of his career on one of the "quietest" teams in the in the league, playing for only 1 "good" team (2015) which unfortunately was 1 and done due to Dalton injury. Cox has most team success with his SB ring, but much of his reputation comes from his run defense, which historically hasn't been held in very high regard by the committee.

 

I would say 1 more 1st team for Suh gets him in (a resurgence would make his resume look very impressive IMO, 4 1st teams over 11 seasons?), 2 more 1st teams for Cox gets him in (6 total all-pros), and for Geno just piling on the numbers for a few more years. Hit 100 sacks for sure, get to like 10 pro bowls, those would both be nice benchmarks that I think could get him in. Either way, I don't think any of these DTs will do enough to be a "lock" when their career ends, and again, I think only 1 gets in when it's all said and done.

 

McCoy deserves to be in this convo as well, HOF potential DTs of the 2010s, but not getting on the all-decade team instantly hurts the HOF chances a bit and like Suh, he looks like his out of gas. 

 

 

PFR's "HOF Monitor" tool assigns a score, based on numbers and accolades, for a players careers. Average DT who has been inducted has a score of 114.18 (Lilly leads w/ 159.2, lowest in the hall is Curley Culp who retired in 1981 w/ 50.85.

Donald- 102.83 in 6 seasons

Atkins- 75.60 in 10 seasons

Suh- 73.73 in 10 seasons

Cox- 67.28 in 8 seasons

McCoy- 42.95 in 10 seasons (all decade team must be huge for this metric since nearly every HOFer at a position w/ 4 spots was on the all-decade team)

 

Kevin Williams has highest score while not being in HOF at 103.28. Only just became eligible.

This pretty much sums up my pov on this.  I have in no way disrespected Atkins play and said that he still has time to change that perspective.

But I'm not one of those people trying throw every player into the HOF as if it's a participation trophy either. 

Right now, he's in a hall of very good with a chance to change it.  

[sp6488]

Needs a borderline option... I'm not confident on yes, but wouldn't be set on no either