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Before Worrying About the 2021 Bears, Maybe Let’s See How 2020 Plays Out


soulman

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ATM: Before Worrying About the 2021 Bears, Maybe Let’s See How 2020 Plays Out

212bf710fe9dfd56c9762bf769cdf891?s=16&d= Andrew Dannehy | July 29th, 2020

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The voices clamoring to replace Ryan Pace have grown louder this off-season, but the simple truth is this: we have to see what 2020 brings before making any determination on whether or not the GM should be employed beyond this season. Some of Pace’s recent moves haven’t been popular and some of his past moves simply haven’t worked out. But the criticism of the Bears has gotten out of control, especially considering they are coming off their best two-year stretch since Lovie Smith and Jerry Angelo were in their primes.

Like pretty much every Bears GM since the beginning of time, Pace missed at quarterback. Those who believe Pace should be fired for drafting Mitch Trubisky over Patrick Mahomes won’t be dissuaded. It is harsh but not entirely unfair.

Where the anti-Pace argument gets out of control is when he gets criticized for what most would consider good moves. Roquan Smith is a very good linebacker. Drafting him ninth wasn’t a bad move. Pace deserves credit for pulling the trigger on the Khalil Mack trade and for building one of the elite defenses in the league. (Especially considering he inherited the worst defense in franchise history.) While drafting Adam Shaheen in the second round was bad, getting something for a player who had no shot to make the roster was a good move.

Pace has found good players late in the draft and as bargains in free agency.  He has made many good moves, enough that the team has won 20 games the past two seasons and has a roster that should contend for a division title in 2020.

 

His misses are bad. Mike Glennon, Mitch Trubisky, pretty much any tight end he acquired, Quintin Demps and of course, Cody %@#$ing Parkey. But every GM has hits and misses. What matters the most is if the team wins games. There’s little question that Pace had a learning curve as the youngest GM in the league when he was hired, but his plan seems to be much more refined now. In two years with the coach he had absolute authority in choosing, the Bears have won 20 games, only seven other teams have won more — none in the NFC North.

A panic ensued last week when it was reported that the 2021 salary cap will be at least $175 million. It was quickly apparent that the words “at least” needed to be defined for some people, but also that the Bears aren’t as bad off as several other teams. The Bears have the ninth-least amount of salary cap space in 2021, with at least one significant free agent — Allen Robinson. The Bears also have a number of moves they’ve already planned — especially at tight end and in the secondary — that will free space.

Just ahead of the Bears in terms of cap space is Green Bay, with two significant upcoming free agents — Kenny Clark and Aaron Jones. Minnesota, which has Dalvin Cook and Anthony Harris set to expire, is behind the Bears.

The salary cap is often an imaginary number. Teams always find ways to create space. While a lower or flat cap in 2021 will be bad for pretty much every team in the league, the smart GMs will find a way to push money down the road as the cap is expected to explode when new TV money kicks in.

What really needs to be understood is that team building is an ongoing process and we have to see how it plays out.

Maybe Nick Foles isn’t a franchise quarterback and the other teams who gave up on him were right. Then again, maybe he’ll be to the Bears what Kurt Warner was to the Cardinals.

The Bears have some potential future issues with aging players, but they also have young players who just might slide in. While he hasn’t had many high picks in the last two drafts, Pace has proven to be adept at finding talent lower in the draft and in free agency after the draft is over.

Perhaps Riley Ridley makes it so Robinson is more expendable? Maybe Kindle Vildor and Duke Shelley allow the team to revamp its secondary? Maybe Alex Bars, Arlington Hambright or Lachavious Simmons prove to be studs along the offensive line? Maybe, just maybe, we should worry about the 2021 Bears after the 2020 season?

Pace should absolutely be on the hot seat entering 2020. He built a team that is supposed to win this season and failing to make the playoffs — especially with an expanded playoff format — would be impossible to explain to George McCaskey. But that hasn’t happened yet and there’s no real reason to expect that to happen.

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I posted this for two reasons.

1) Andrew Dannehy is no Ryan Pace "fan boi" and has often been as critical of him as our own in house critic Windy.

2) I wanted to highlight some of the positives that even a Pace critic like Dannehy is forced to admit so maybe others can too.

Dannehy takes what I believe is a balanced look at the tenure of Ryan Pace by refusing to ignore the bad while still be willing to admit the good moves he's made which have brought the Bears back from being an outright embarrassment under the direction of Phil Emery and HCs like Trestman and Fox to becoming a competitive force in the NFC North.  We still don't know what we have in Mitch but should he fail he'd just be the latest in a long list of others drafted or traded for by previous GMs who also failed.

As I posted in another thread you don't typically fire a GM whose been able to accomplish that coming off a 20-12 winning record playing in a tough competitive division especially when his record and that of his chosen coach are actually better than all three of the Bears NFCN opponents.  In all fairness it's possible we should limit our judgement of Pace to the post John Fox era where he has had absolute control of this team from top to bottom with a HC who actually shares his vision for rebuilding.

But as for my last highlight I fully disagree with Dannehy.  His last little flourish was unnecessary and IMHO it's also complete bull****.

Unless by some quirk of fate the Bears come completely apart and fall to becoming a losing team again who can't even beat the Lions at home making the playoffs or not won't doom Ryan Pace or Matt Nagy.  And there won't be a need to explain himself to GMcC either.  George McCaskey is about the only McCaskey son who even comes close to having any real football savvy.  He'll know just as well as Ryan Pace will why we failed to make the playoffs and together with Matt Nagy they'll begin to make their plans for 2021.  The McCaskey's like Ryan Pace and the job he's done so they aren't likely to fire the best GM they've ever had this quickly no matter what.

 

(The opinions expressed are those of this posts author and long suffering Chicago Bears fan and amateur historian.  They do not necessarily reflect the views of FF management or any of those disrespectful of the positive accomplishments of Ryan Pace and the Chicago Bears.  Nanny, nanny boo boo ya' haters!   🤣)

 

 

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He won’t be fired because Covid is going to make this season a mess.

His work on offense has been bad and the results have been a team that despite winning 20 games in 2 years has been crippled by a bad offense.

His work on defense is commendable... it would be more so if his offense didn’t torpedo his defense.

It is 2020, the entire point of getting rid of Jerry and Lovie was to finally build a modern offense... still waiting.

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54 minutes ago, WindyCity said:

But, I do agree with his point that if the Bears are not competitive this season, and Covid didn’t play a major part, then Pace should be fired.

That much we're all aware of as far as your thinking goes but again I'll betcha' that pizza it ain't gonna happen.

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4 hours ago, WindyCity said:

He won’t be fired because Covid is going to make this season a mess.

His work on offense has been bad and the results have been a team that despite winning 20 games in 2 years has been crippled by a bad offense.

His work on defense is commendable... it would be more so if his offense didn’t torpedo his defense.

It is 2020, the entire point of getting rid of Jerry and Lovie was to finally build a modern offense... still waiting.

Has his work on the offense been all that horrid or is he simply the victim of a QB whose not performed as well as he's been expected to?

There's no way to be certain but at least in 2019 I'm left with a feeling that a more capable vet starter with more familiarity with Nagy's schemes would have done better and we'd have won a few more games.  We were a missed FG away from beating San Diego that would have had us 9-7 and a rather shocking 3 point loss to Oakland in London that would have taken us to 10-6.  So four lousy points during that 4 game slide of losses during October was the difference between 10-6 and 8-8.

What stones me is if you weren't bleating about firing Ryan Pace three years ago when we were a laughingstock why are you now when we're actually winning?

Oh, and we had a #2 offense under Marc Trestman so he did assemble a better one but our defense sucked so badly we still lost.  It takes some competence on both side of the ball right?  Let's see how it goes this year with what we all hope will be a better and more stable QB situation and if you can't tell the difference between Nagy's offense and John Fox's offense you're not even trying.

Edited by soulman
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2 hours ago, WindyCity said:

His OL is mediocre

His TE position is a mess

 

It isn’t just the QB, although he did make a historically bad pick at QB.

He's made what appear to be two very good OL picks so far in Whitehair and Daniels, brought in Massie as a FA, and extended him.  Leno and Long he inherited.

I think we've beaten the OL horse to death as well.  Are these guys as good as the '85 Bruise Brothers? No, they're not.  But in 2018 they graded above average and regressed in 2019 for reasons we've been over many times so I'll refrain from doing it again.  When on their game they've been an average to slightly above average OL with some upside at OG and OC if Ifedi pans out.  We upgraded the OL and TE coaches and soon we'll upgrade OT.  If you want to call them mediocre instead of average be my guest.  A rose by any other name still smells like a rose.

He made two critical errors at TE.  Burton was overpaid and under produced.....and he may be a head case.  I dunno but he's gone.  Shaheen was obviously overdrafted and he's gone too but at least we got a pick back for him.  We hope.  But Pace brought in 3 new TEs to fix the problem and we may have a bonus 2nd year guy in Horsted who was an UDFA.  Based on all of this I'd say the TE position isn't a mess and it wasn't ignored.   It's been dealt with and very aggressively too.  What more are you expecting?

And let's not forget that losing a productive pass catcher like Zach Miller to a career ending injury was a an unanticipated cruel blow.  That cost us a good TE.

Edited by soulman
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27 minutes ago, soulman said:

He's made what appear to be two very good OL picks so far in Whitehair and Daniels, brought in Massie as a FA, and extended him.  Leno and Long he inherited.

I think we've beaten the OL horse to death as well.  Are these guys as good as the '85 Bruise Brothers? No, they're not.  But in 2018 they graded above average and regressed in 2019 for reasons we've been over many times so I'll refrain from doing it again.  When on their game they've been an average to slightly above average OL with some upside at OG and OC if Ifedi pans out.  We upgraded the OL and TE coaches and soon we'll upgrade OT.  If you want to call them mediocre instead of average be my guest.  A rose by any other name still smells like a rose.

He made two critical errors at TE.  Burton was overpaid and under produced.....and he may be a head case.  I dunno but he's gone.  Shaheen was obviously overdrafted and he's gone too but at least we got a pick back for him.  We hope.  But Pace brought in 3 new TEs to fix the problem and we may have a bonus 2nd year guy in Horsted who was an UDFA.  Based on all of this I'd say the TE position isn't a mess and it wasn't ignored.   It's been dealt with and very aggressively too.  What more are you expecting?

And let's not forget that losing a productive pass catcher like Zach Miller to a career ending injury was a an unanticipated cruel blow.  That cost us a good TE.

Nothing you said changed the fact that the OL is medicore/average. They are a little below average when you consider they are average pass blockers and below average run blockers.

Leno, Massie and Unfortunately at this moment Daniels are replaceable players. None of the Bears OLmen are difference makers. In fact Brandon Thorne one of the top OL guys in the media had every Bears OLmen ranked in tier 4-5 a their positions.

The TE position is a mess till it isn’t. Yes there are new options, but we dont know if any of them are going to be good.

 

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29 minutes ago, beardown3231 said:

Since when is James Daniels "very good." He looked good in 2018 and was below average last year. No matter which way you slice it it's entirely too early to declare that pick "very good."

Bears fans have been over rating their in house talent since the beginning of time.

Daniels is a compete unknown. He has been solid and horrible at different times.

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13 minutes ago, WindyCity said:

Nothing you said changed the fact that the OL is medicore/average. They are a little below average when you consider they are average pass blockers and below average run blockers.

Leno, Massie and Unfortunately at this moment Daniels are replaceable players. None of the Bears OLmen are difference makers. In fact Brandon Thorne one of the top OL guys in the media had every Bears OLmen ranked in tier 4-5 a their positions.

The TE position is a mess till it isn’t. Yes there are new options, but we dont know if any of them are going to be good.

 

They are not at this moment replaceable players so it run with what ya' brung this year.

Leno and Massie will be replaced once we have better but until someone takes their jobs away our best hope is that Castillo can improve their play.  We do have young talent on the roster so we're not without prospects until we can once again get a shot at a highly grade college OT.  Would you prefer a 1st round rookie OT right now or Khalil Mack? 

That was a price we paid when we traded for Mack and if some of us didn't realize it sure as hell Pace and Nagy did so it's both useless and incorrect to think that Pace hasn't done enough to improve the OL.  Long's rapid decline came as somewhat of a surprise but we brought in Ifedi.  Based on what little film of him we've seen as a RG he looked like he can handle the job.  At least Pace didn't leave it to chance that Coward could do it again and he reached out and got a guy we hope is better.  Given our cap limitations what else were you expecting?

Daniels is a very young 3rd year OL who was a highly graded draft pick.  They don't all come in and immediately set the world aflame.  I expect Daniels to hit his stride this year just as Whitehair did and Leno before him.  When we do draft a top OT it may well take 2 years for him to hit his stride so let's hope someone we have in camp now emerges as competition for Massie at the very least.  I dunno that we have any great LT prospects in camp.

As for TE whatta ya mean we don't know if any of them are gonna be any good?  You post like they're all inexperienced rookies.

Jimmy Graham may not be what he once was but with his track record and availability he can't be worse than what we had.  No one is expecting him to put up 1000 yards but half that should be very doable.  Demetrius Harris is a 7 year vet whose been a primary blocking TE in an offense very similar to ours and he's also missed very few games due to injury.  Horsted has shown some ability as a "U" TE and can backup Graham and Kmet is our top draft pick and not the kind of reach Shaheen was.

So I'd call TE fixed as well just not to what level.

Windy I know you believe you're only being realistic but in reality you are an overflowing fountain of pessimism.  You're like a guy who takes his car in for a set of 4 brand new tires then gripes he'll probably pick up a nail and get a flat on the way home.  This team has been in a constant state of improvement under Ryan Pace which accelerated rapidly once that albatross of John Fox as a HC was lifted yet you constantly see the glass not as just half empty but mostly drained.  IMHO there is really no pleasing you or "fixing" people like you.  You must be far happier being a pessimistic grouch because I seldom see you enthused about any of it and I'm being serious.

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11 minutes ago, soulman said:

They are not at this moment replaceable players so it run with what ya' brung this year.

Leno and Massie will be replaced once we have better but until someone takes their jobs away our best hope is that Castillo can improve their play.  We do have young talent on the roster so we're not without prospects until we can once again get a shot at a highly grade college OT.  Would you prefer a 1st round rookie OT right now or Khalil Mack? 

That was a price we paid when we traded for Mack and if some of us didn't realize it sure as hell Pace and Nagy did so it's both useless and incorrect to think that Pace hasn't done enough to improve the OL.  Long's rapid decline came as somewhat of a surprise but we brought in Ifedi.  Based on what little film of him we've seen as a RG he looked like he can handle the job.  At least Pace didn't leave it to chance that Coward could do it again and he reached out and got a guy we hope is better.  Given our cap limitations what else were you expecting?

Daniels is a very young 3rd year OL who was a highly graded draft pick.  They don't all come in and immediately set the world aflame.  I expect Daniels to hit his stride this year just as Whitehair did and Leno before him.  When we do draft a top OT it may well take 2 years for him to hit his stride so let's hope someone we have in camp now emerges as competition for Massie at the very least.  I dunno that we have any great LT prospects in camp.

As for TE whatta ya mean we don't know if any of them are gonna be any good?  You post like they're all inexperienced rookies.

Jimmy Graham may not be what he once was but with his track record and availability he can't be worse than what we had.  No one is expecting him to put up 1000 yards but half that should be very doable.  Demetrius Harris is a 7 year vet whose been a primary blocking TE in an offense very similar to ours and he's also missed very few games due to injury.  Horsted has shown some ability as a "U" TE and can backup Graham and Kmet is our top draft pick and not the kind of reach Shaheen was.

So I'd call TE fixed as well just not to what level.

Windy I know you believe you're only being realistic but in reality you are an overflowing fountain of pessimism.  You're like a guy who takes his car in for a set of 4 brand new tires then gripes he'll probably pick up a nail and get a flat on the way home.  This team has been in a constant state of improvement under Ryan Pace which accelerated rapidly once that albatross of John Fox as a HC was lifted yet you constantly see the glass not as just half empty but mostly drained.  IMHO there is really no pleasing you or "fixing" people like you.  You must be far happier being a pessimistic grouch because I seldom see you enthused about any of it and I'm being serious.

You are a Bears fan.

You should know that over half your “if this happens” are not going to happen. You are selling a perfect scenario where everything clicks on offense.

That wasn’t the case last season. It won’t be the case this season.

This offense is talent deficient.

If Mitch or Foles are good

If Leno plays better

If Massie plays better 

If Ifedi can improve with a position switch

If Daniels takes a step

If Cohen can bounce back 

If Miller can become more consistent

If Graham can produce something 

If Kmet can contribute early  in his career.

 

That is an insane amount of “IFS”

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