Jump to content

Nick Foles: Reasons for Optimism


soulman

Recommended Posts

Nick Foles: Reasons for Optimism

e6d50a12c068be89060c5271a6241ef0?s=16&d= Jeff Hughes | August 3rd, 2020 https://dabearsblog.com/2020/foles

foles.png?resize=600%2C200


There’s a popular opinion shared among Bears fans (and certain media types) that Nick Foles isn’t good. Because of this belief, these individuals have reached two conclusions: (1) it’s in the best interest of the Bears for Mitch Trubisky to “win” the starting job this summer and (2) the Bears won’t be any good in 2020.

Here’s where I differ: I think Nick Foles is good. Great? No. A franchise quarterback? Of course not. But Nick Foles has led a franchise through a miraculous postseason and won Super Bowl MVP. Nick Foles has thrown twice the number of touchdowns as interceptions in his eight seasons. Nick Foles has pitched to a career QB rating of 88.2, more than two points better than that Cam Newton with whom everybody seemed so enamored.

And Foles’ goodness goes beyond statistics. I remember seeing him look absolutely dominant running Chip Kelly’s offense in Philly. I remember the calmness he brought to the huddle after Carson Wentz’ injury. I’ve seen him for what he is: a stabilizing force within an organization.

That’s what stood out when he and Mitch Trubisky addressed the media Friday. Trubisky seemed immature, still spouting well-rehearsed cliches and insinuating – somehow – that he’d never make mechanical adjustments before. Trubisky seems like a good enough kid but the act is tired now. He wants to “prove everybody wrong” but the opinions of everybody are based solely on one thing: his wretched play.

This organization, city, fan base is lost in the quarterbacking desert, so thirsty for good play from the position they’ll enthusiastically believe any watery mirage is real and pretend to be quenched after consumption. Trubisky couldn’t even satisfy the most delusional among us.

 

Nick Foles, in a park ranger bucket hat, looked like a man who knows where he belongs. And he sounded like that man too. He talked about an offense he knows. He talked about coaches he knows. He talked about rooting for the kid he’s competing with because it’s best for the Chicago Bears that both succeed. He sounded like a man that wants to lead a football team, and a man who believes he’s going to be given that opportunity.

The Bears are good quarterback play from competing for a title. Nick Foles is good. If he stays healthy, the Bears stay in it until deep into the winter.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Include above are some sobering word about Mitch that should make Windy happy.  Always happy to be fair to all sides.

But the rest is why I'm happy Pace elected to trade for sign Nick Foles as a second QB.

I know many of us hope Mitch can pull himself up by his boot straps and become that franchise QB we all hope for when he was drafted.  Or lacking that maybe he can at least become another Alex Smith and learn to operate Nagy's offense well.

But just in case he fails on both counts I believe Nick Foles is an ideal vet to rely on should Mitch fail and also an ideal vet mentor to a rookie QB should we go that direction next spring having parted ways with Mitch.  We haven't solved our QB issues quite yet but I do feel we're much closer to it than we have been in quite awhile.

Edited by soulman
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Think you pointed it out Soul, and it has become my mantra for the Bears QB group this year. For the top 2 guys the ceiling isn't really high, but the floor is as high as you can hope for. It is a patchwork job IMO but should allow us to see if Nagy really has the chops to be a playcaller. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Sugashane said:

Think you pointed it out Soul, and it has become my mantra for the Bears QB group this year. For the top 2 guys the ceiling isn't really high, but the floor is as high as you can hope for. It is a patchwork job IMO but should allow us to see if Nagy really has the chops to be a playcaller. 

Agreed Suga. Both QB's are low-ceiling, high floor players and we still don't have any long-term answer at QB either.  Foles is already a high-end backup QB and that about the same ceiling as Mitch. Now whether Mitch reaches that potential or not remains to be see but that seems to be what his ceiling is and I'm hoping that Nagy and the other staff can atleast get that much out of him this year (if there is a season). 

 

12 hours ago, soulman said:

But Nick Foles has led a franchise through a miraculous postseason and won Super Bowl MVP. Nick Foles has thrown twice the number of touchdowns as interceptions in his eight seasons. Nick Foles has pitched to a career QB rating of 88.2, more than two points better than that Cam Newton with whom everybody seemed so enamored.

And Foles’ goodness goes beyond statistics. I remember seeing him look absolutely dominant running Chip Kelly’s offense in Philly. I remember the calmness he brought to the huddle after Carson Wentz’ injury. I’ve seen him for what he is: a stabilizing force within an organization.

Sorry everyone, I know I can get long-winded. I was gonna start a Mitch vs Foles thread when we first signed Foles but I scratched it hoping that other insiders/writers would do a better job of explaining my opinion better than me based on what I had to say. Or that very atleast some fans would do some research on their own before drawing conclusions. But I haven't seen any of that yet so I'll use this as an opportunity to put it all in a nutshell, I guess. I'll start with addressing the writer of the article itself though. 

The article is using less than 12-13 games in total out of a 7-8 year career to prop up Foles and ignoring his long history of injuries, the fact that he has yet to find a permanent home from professional GM's and coaches, and most of all.....the fact that he had the element of surprise on his side during both of those runs. His 2013 season when Vick got hurt was with a first year HC/OC (Chip Kelly) when he wasn't even supposed to be a starter, and in the 2017 playoffs when Wentz got hurt.

Bottomline is, Foles has been lucky. He overachieved in two short-quick runs that have ended just as quick as they started, and fortunately for him and his newborn it has led to long career that has helped him provide for his family. 

I say that to say this, there is absolutely no fair away to compare Mitch and Foles, side by side, for many of reasons. But that same element of surprise that's being to used (and ignored) to prop up Foles also seems to be used against Mitch because he also had the element of surprise during his best season as well, with a new OC in 2018, and went just as far into the playoffs as Foles did (WC spot) and also played better than Foles in the playoffs and did it against a tougher defense. 

Now I'm not saying that Trubisky is a good QB by any means. I've already expressed my feelings about him WELL before it was the "cool" thing to do and I took the hits from damn near every fan for it back then. But my point is, the writer seems to be focusing on all of Foles' strong points and doesn't seem to be giving Mitch a fair shake. FWIW this si FO

Trubisky has had a better regular-season DVOA than Nick Foles in each of his three seasons in the league—in fact, Foles hasn’t topped Trubisky’s high-water mark of 3.6% since 2013, and has been below Trubisky’s -11.0% DVOA from 2019 in half of his eight career seasons. This is not entirely a fair comparison, of course. Foles didn’t qualify for the main quarterback leaderboards in either 2017 or 2019. In 2019, he missed a large chunk of the season with a broken clavicle, and his 2017 numbers do not include the postseason run, where Foles’ 69.4% DVOA and 586 DYAR dazzled and amazed. Trubisky’s three-game high-water mark is a relatively paltry 31.0% in 2018, in Weeks 4-7. Still, it shows that the argument for Foles being better than Trubisky isn’t entirely cut-and-dried, especially when you take into account the fact that Foles is six years older than Trubisky, has a lengthy injury history, and has never started all 16 games in a season. The argument for Foles is all upside—that 2017 playoff run, the magical 2013 season. We’re talking a dozen games, about a quarter of his track record as a starting quarterback. Foles has shown, in streaks, an ability to be one of the top quarterbacks in the league, but the majority of his career has been as a replacement-level player. If you distributed out Foles’ best games around his career, rather than having them all piled up next to one another, you’d consider him a frustratingly erratic bundle of potential, rather than someone capable of leading a team anywhere.

IMO, on the surface, I do think Foles is a better QB but only by a very slight margin if any. Especially when you consider that Trubisky may not have the best mechanics, or pocket presence, or footwork ....he atleast has experience in this very same offense and has already built a camaraderie with the OL and skill players. Foles doesn't. And he hasn't had the chance since all offseason programs were cancelled and throwing Foles into the fire over Mitch would be a huge mistake, IMO. 

Luckily for me and my opinion, Pace built this team around his #1 pick and he already stated he will have input on who will start. I have been saying all offseason that Mitch will be the starter regardless of which QB they choose for this very same reason. Pace is too stubborn to admit that he made a mistake, just like he did with Kevin White. However, he does seem willing to compromise. Just like he did with White, and even more so. His compromise is to give one more chance to Mitch. I personally think that Nagy has zero trust in Mitch and would've already benched him if not for his boss(Pace) and if he had a better alternative than Chase Daniel. 

However, It also seems to me that Pace really trusts Nagy's opinions, seeing as how he let Nagy choose which staff members go and who stays. 
Again, Pace is not willing to admit that he made a mistake by choosing Mitch JUST YET but I do think he is listening now, just like he did with White in his final year, and is still willing to do whatever it takes to win. Even if that means him finally admitting being wrong about Mitch. He just simply needs to see more of Mitch before admitting it to himself enough to move on. This is why he let Nagy choose Flip, Lazor, and all of the rest on offense so that he can put Mitch and Nagy (who he ALSO chose) in the best positions as possible to succeed so that he doesn't look like a fool.

11 hours ago, soulman said:

Include above are some sobering word about Mitch that should make Windy happy.  Always happy to be fair to all sides.

But the rest is why I'm happy Pace elected to trade for sign Nick Foles as a second QB.

I know many of us hope Mitch can pull himself up by his boot straps and become that franchise QB we all hope for when he was drafted.  Or lacking that maybe he can at least become another Alex Smith and learn to operate Nagy's offense well.

But just in case he fails on both counts I believe Nick Foles is an ideal vet to rely on should Mitch fail and also an ideal vet mentor to a rookie QB should we go that direction next spring having parted ways with Mitch.  We haven't solved our QB issues quite yet but I do feel we're much closer to it than we have been in quite awhile.

There are two separate things about this post that I'll share my opinions on. 

1) Foles is a career high-end backup QB. He's a good QB to have in any system where there is a lot of uncertainty surrounding the current starter, and unfortunately we fit that bill to tee. And for those reasons, I like having Foles as a backup QB. Props to Pace for that part. 

2) However, this is one of those occasions where Pace panicked and this team is going to pay for it in the future. And I get it, he's trying to build a SB team by atleast trying to keep the offense respectable in case the offense fails under Mitch. Drastic times means taking drastic measures.

But taking on Foles guaranteed money when JAX had no leverage at all (57M) was a HUGE risk. Especially now with the C19 virus and no guarantee of a 2020 season.

His contract and history almost guarantees that we are stuck with Foles for 2 years (unless he somehow brings the 2013 CHip Kelly back anyhow). That's alot of cash flow for a backup QB who will essentially not matter much to our team if Mitch doesn't succeed as the starter and take the next step. I believe in our defense but by the time Pace gives up on Trubisky, it's going to be too late in the season. 

But that brings me to my the next point. Based on history, it's unlikely that Trubisky takes that step, but that doesn't mean ALL is lost either. Drew Bledsoe is a great example of this. He also struggled in his first year then spiked in year two and also suffered shoulder injuries in his 3rd year and declined, just like Mitch. But when he has healthy and with a new OC, he became one of the best in the league at the time. Older folks know. 

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I am confident Foles won’t be a trainwreck like 2019 Mitch.

I actually disagree with the DBBs take on Mitch. Best case scenario is he takes a step his ceiling is higher than Foles, crazy playoff run aside.

Edited by WindyCity
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, WindyCity said:

I am confident Foles won’t be a trainwreck like 2019 Mitch.

I actually disagree with the DBBs take on Mitch. Best case scenario is he takes a step his ceiling is higher than Foles, crazy playoff run aside.

I wouldn't disagree with this either. I have little to no faith in Mitch at this point, but a strong showing of 3-4 consecutive games could help change my perspective of him and raise his ceiling just a little higher. 

But it's still going to do a hell of alot more than that to convince me that he's a long-term fix at a position that this organization struggled with for the last ~50 some years. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

@JustAnotherFan I've been hitting a lot of those points for the last few months with you. Essentially we're hoping Foles gets that hot run for us too. If Tru can not suck we should at least be .500 and then when Foles takes over hopefully he had one if those rare runs. Over his career he has been average overall at best,  but he has had some damn good streaks. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 hours ago, Sugashane said:

Think you pointed it out Soul, and it has become my mantra for the Bears QB group this year. For the top 2 guys the ceiling isn't really high, but the floor is as high as you can hope for. It is a patchwork job IMO but should allow us to see if Nagy really has the chops to be a playcaller. 

I believe we know what Foles ceiling is and it's pretty high just not for an entire season or at least it hasn't been to date but the guy is only 31 so he's just getting into that "sweet spot" many QB hit once they turn 30 have seen it all and have been there before.  We know he can beat NE and Brady in a SB and that ain't chopped liver. 😁

And who knows what Mitch's ceiling is and if he'll ever reach it.  He's got great physical talent so if he can mature mentally and do what all great QBs learn to do he could be very good.  Or he could end up being little more than he is now and a career tease much like Cutler became for us.  Tough to tell just yet.

But yeah, I do feel we have as strong pair of QBs as anyone in NFL Shane and that may be more useful than we think given how freaky this season may be.

Edited by soulman
Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 hours ago, JustAnotherFan said:

There are two separate things about this post that I'll share my opinions on. 

1) Foles is a career high-end backup QB. He's a good QB to have in any system where there is a lot of uncertainty surrounding the current starter, and unfortunately we fit that bill to tee. And for those reasons, I like having Foles as a backup QB. Props to Pace for that part. 

2) However, this is one of those occasions where Pace panicked and this team is going to pay for it in the future. And I get it, he's trying to build a SB team by atleast trying to keep the offense respectable in case the offense fails under Mitch. Drastic times means taking drastic measures.

But taking on Foles guaranteed money when JAX had no leverage at all (57M) was a HUGE risk. Especially now with the C19 virus and no guarantee of a 2020 season.

His contract and history almost guarantees that we are stuck with Foles for 2 years (unless he somehow brings the 2013 CHip Kelly back anyhow). That's alot of cash flow for a backup QB who will essentially not matter much to our team if Mitch doesn't succeed as the starter and take the next step. I believe in our defense but by the time Pace gives up on Trubisky, it's going to be too late in the season. 

Most of the media is betting on Mitch starting the season as am I.  I also posted some thinking on why that still makes sense.  So I agree wholly with #1.  Foles leaves us in a good place should Mitch fail but not only for 2020.  He's also a de facto starter then in 2021 (albeit for more $$$) while Pace and Nagy look to locate Mitch's replacement.  If that happens he'll have earned most if not all of his $21 mil this year and next and another QB on his rookie deal.

I admit that $8 mil is top dollar for a #2 but Foles is one of the best backups in the NFL and as a starter in 2021 he's likely to earn somewhere around $12 mil give or take a mil which is half of what Mitch 5th year option would have cost us.  Given our other obligations and the possibility of a lesser cap in 2021 or possibly no increase from 2020 IMHO we do need to remain cap cautious.  Having Foles under contract allows us to do that and I do believe we can win behind him.

Overall it would be far better if Mitch did step up and own this offense.  I think we all feel that way but right now that's still a 50/50 possibility.  With Nick Foles here I have far more confidence that we can win 10 games or more this season than if he wasn't.  If we expect to challenge GB and Minny for the NFCN crown we'll need at least 10 if not more. I believe it can be done I just don't know if it will be done but our floor is still that of a winning team or at worst 8-8 again.  JMHO

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, soulman said:

I believe we know what Foles ceiling is and it's pretty high just not for an entire season or at least it hasn't been to date but the guy is only 31 so he's just getting into that "sweet spot" many QB hit once they turn 30 have seen it all and have been there before.  We know he can beat NE and Brady in a SB and that ain't chopped liver. 😁

And who knows what Mitch's ceiling is and if he'll ever reach it.  He's got great physical talent so if he can mature mentally and do what all great QBs learn to do he could be very good.  Or he could end up being little more than he is now and a career tease much like Cutler became for us.  Tough to tell just yet.

But yeah, I do feel we have as strong pair of QBs as anyone in NFL Shane and that may be more useful than we think given how freaky this season may be.

True but the only starter we have over what he had in PHI is that ARob is better than Alshon. Other than that PHI's offense trounces ours. Lol

I have no issue with the gamble on Tru's upside. I'd make a similar gamble in 2021 to be honest. Either way we need to roll with him at first and hopefully he surprises us.  If not then maybe he can confirm his busy status so there is no more wasted time with him.  

While I'd prefer one quality starter having good depth instead is at least a solid consolation prize. As much bellyaching as I might have with the situation even I can deny that. Lol

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 hours ago, JustAnotherFan said:

Bottomline is, Foles has been lucky. 

Whatever you think of Foles, or his potential as a starter, the bottom line, big picture, is that Foles has been profoundly unlucky

I'm not sure why that's so hard to understand. But, apparently, for TONS of folks...it is. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, Heinz D. said:

Whatever you think of Foles, or his potential as a starter, the bottom line, big picture, is that Foles has been profoundly unlucky

I'm not sure why that's so hard to understand. But, apparently, for TONS of folks...it is. 

I don't really agree or disagree, but how do you figure?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 minutes ago, beardown3231 said:

I don't really agree or disagree, but how do you figure?

He's been thrown into a lot of bad situations. 

I'm not going to puff out my chest and declare he's Hall of Fame without his bad luck...

But he's had a lot of bad luck. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, Sugashane said:

True but the only starter we have over what he had in PHI is that ARob is better than Alshon. Other than that PHI's offense trounces ours. Lol

I have no issue with the gamble on Tru's upside. I'd make a similar gamble in 2021 to be honest. Either way we need to roll with him at first and hopefully he surprises us.  If not then maybe he can confirm his busy status so there is no more wasted time with him.  

While I'd prefer one quality starter having good depth instead is at least a solid consolation prize. As much bellyaching as I might have with the situation even I can deny that. Lol

Ya' know, as Bears fans we often have a habit of basing our opinions and evaluations on past performance with little regard as to whether or not a unit can improve based on the probability of younger players getting better as they gain more experience.  Why do we insist on doing this?

We do have a fairly young offense.  Quite a few of our skill players are 25 or under and with the exception of Massie our OL is also fairly young or just now hitting their prime so we aren't without talent who have upside if good coaching and schemes that use them effectively can bring it out.

I'm not trying to be a "Pollyana" homer here just stating some facts.  While some of our best defensive players have hit 30 or are close to it our offense is still quite young.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Heinz D. said:

He's been thrown into a lot of bad situations. 

I'm not going to puff out my chest and declare he's Hall of Fame without his bad luck...

But he's had a lot of bad luck. 

He's been in the league for 8 years and still doesn't have a home. Not even those teams he succeeded with had faith in him and It's no one else's fault but his own. He's just not starting material. Plain and simple. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...