Nick Foles: Reasons for Optimism

[JAF-N72EX]

14 hours ago, Sugashane said:

@JustAnotherFan I've been hitting a lot of those points for the last few months with you. Essentially we're hoping Foles gets that hot run for us too. If Tru can not suck we should at least be .500 and then when Foles takes over hopefully he had one if those rare runs. Over his career he has been average overall at best,  but he has had some damn good streaks. 

I'm with you here. IMO, this is a 9-11 win team even based on my low expectations for Mitch. I see Mitch being better than he was in 2019. Not exponentially better to the point where I would feel comfortable with him being our starter in 2021 but better nonethless.

I also agree that Foles was brought in hopes of catching lighting in a bottle if Mitch fails but I don't see it because of Foles history and because the margin between Mitch and Foles are very minimal 

[abstract_thought]

It's hard to say Mitch is a "high-floor" QB after what we saw last season.

[Heinz D.]

17 hours ago, JAF-N72EX said:

He's been in the league for 8 years and still doesn't have a home. Not even those teams he succeeded with had faith in him and It's no one else's fault but his own. He's just not starting material. Plain and simple. 

Maybe not. But, ascribing equal amounts of wisdom, and proper planning, to all of those various franchises, as they dealt with their various situations, is simply off.

Harbaugh in San Francisco thought Kaepernick was a franchise QB. Was Harbaugh right, because he was a head coach of an NFL franchise? 

[Sugashane]

10 hours ago, abstract_thought said:

It's hard to say Mitch is a "high-floor" QB after what we saw last season.

Low end starter for a floor is pretty damn good compared to the entire scope of QBs. 

 

Granted for the cap hit he has this year and the draft position you absolutely want more, but he's undoubtedly in the top 1/3 of the QBs in the league if 2019 was his floor. 

[soulman]

19 hours ago, JAF-N72EX said:

He's been in the league for 8 years and still doesn't have a home. Not even those teams he succeeded with had faith in him and It's no one else's fault but his own. He's just not starting material. Plain and simple. 

Yeah, just like that guy who was once a grocery bagger.  They said he'd never become a winner in the NFL either.  What was his name again.  🤣

I don't think anyone sees Foles as some kind of franchise QB but I believe he's good enough to win with if we need him.

[Heinz D.]

1 hour ago, soulman said:

I don't think anyone sees Foles as some kind of franchise QB but I believe he's good enough to win with if we need him.

I don't think the odds are great he's a franchise QB. But he beat a balling out Tom Brady in the Super Bowl (with impressive play of his own). And that's among other notable things. I don't think that anybody can say for sure what he is--beyond what you stated..."good enough to win if we need him". 

He's not forty. He hasn't been a starter for fifteen years, or something. That aforementioned grocery bagger was DONE after the Giants released him too, everybody remember that? 

[abstract_thought]

3 hours ago, Sugashane said:

Low end starter for a floor is pretty damn good compared to the entire scope of QBs. 

 

Granted for the cap hit he has this year and the draft position you absolutely want more, but he's undoubtedly in the top 1/3 of the QBs in the league if 2019 was his floor. 

Top 1/3 of all QBs? Sure. Top 1/3 of starting QBs? Not even close. His floor is one of the worst starting QBs in football. It's not fair to compare Mitch to guys who sit on the sidelines.

Neither Mitch nor Foles are "high-floor". They're both high variance guys who can be great but can also be awful. The only difference between this year and last is that the Bears get 2 rolls of the dice instead of 1.

[Sugashane]

27 minutes ago, abstract_thought said:

Top 1/3 of all QBs? Sure. Top 1/3 of starting QBs? Not even close. His floor is one of the worst starting QBs in football. It's not fair to compare Mitch to guys who sit on the sidelines.

Neither Mitch nor Foles are "high-floor". They're both high variance guys who can be great but can also be awful. The only difference between this year and last is that the Bears get 2 rolls of the dice instead of 1.

Obviously I meant all QBs and not starting. No one is going to say he is a top 10 QB in the NFL. 

I don't see how it isn't fair when he may be doing the same thing before long. There are a ton of guys who have been looked at as starters who were hoped to be long-term solutions and then become reserves. Nearly any 1st round QB is going to fall into that list. Of all 1st round QBs taken since 2000 he is actually one of the better players overall, I'd say well over the middle of the pack. Of course the stars like Rodgers, Luck, Mahomes, etc are going to make him look like trash, but there's a significant amount of guys who couldn't even play at his 2019 level in their best year. If you really don't think that almost a 2/1 TD to INT ratio, 83 QBR and 200 YPG as a bottom-level stat line with the terrible situation all around him isn't low-floor then you're expectations of depth guys is crazy. There isn't 40 people in the NFL today that can do that IMO, but there are probably 20 that relatively easily can. 

I'm not saying Pace didn't botch the pick, but objectively Tru could have been much worse. We've started worse for the bulk of my 30 years. 

[abstract_thought]

5 minutes ago, Sugashane said:

Obviously I meant all QBs and not starting. No one is going to say he is a top 10 QB in the NFL. 

I don't see how it isn't fair when he may be doing the same thing before long. There are a ton of guys who have been looked at as starters who were hoped to be long-term solutions and then become reserves. Nearly any 1st round QB is going to fall into that list. Of all 1st round QBs taken since 2000 he is actually one of the better players overall, I'd say well over the middle of the pack. Of course the stars like Rodgers, Luck, Mahomes, etc are going to make him look like trash, but there's a significant amount of guys who couldn't even play at his 2019 level in their best year. If you really don't think that almost a 2/1 TD to INT ratio, 83 QBR and 200 YPG as a bottom-level stat line with the terrible situation all around him isn't low-floor then you're expectations of depth guys is crazy. There isn't 40 people in the NFL today that can do that IMO, but there are probably 20 that relatively easily can. 

I'm not saying Pace didn't botch the pick, but objectively Tru could have been much worse. We've started worse for the bulk of my 30 years. 

OK that's fair if we're evaluating Mitch as a draft pick, but I thought this thread was about evaluating the Bears' 2020 QB situation. I wouldn't consider their situation "high-floor" because they have 2 top 40 QBs.

[soulman]

1 hour ago, Heinz D. said:

I don't think the odds are great he's a franchise QB. But he beat a balling out Tom Brady in the Super Bowl (with impressive play of his own). And that's among other notable things. I don't think that anybody can say for sure what he is--beyond what you stated..."good enough to win if we need him". 

He's not forty. He hasn't been a starter for fifteen years, or something. That aforementioned grocery bagger was DONE after the Giants released him too, everybody remember that? 

I'm not even gonna THINK about comparing Foles to GOAT/HOF type QBs.  What I'm comparing him to is a very lengthy and undistinguished list of failed QBs we've had since the hey day of Sid Luckman.  We've managed to win only two championships since that era.  One behind a QB whose best days were behind him and another behind a Punky QB who couldn't stay healthy.   And in both cases it was a dominant defense that actually got us there and won those games.  Our third shot was with another dominant defense and a QB whom both Mitch and Foles are better than.

There seems to be a prevailing thought that to win a SB a team must have a HOF type QB and I don't believe that.  Foles (and others) have proven that.  We may well have another dominant defense that a QB like Foles can win behind if Mitch can't.  No more, no less.

If as it turns out Mitch is not our QB of the future then I'm all for looking to draft one who may become one but between now and then I have some confidence we can win often enough behind Nick Foles to get into the playoffs and compete.  At this point in time that's all we should really be expecting.  We're still setting the table for the feast.  It's still gonna need to be cooked for awhile longer yet before it's dinner time. JMHO

Edited August 6, 2020 by soulman

[JAF-N72EX]

3 hours ago, soulman said:

Yeah, just like that guy who was once a grocery bagger.  They said he'd never become a winner in the NFL either.  What was his name again.  🤣

Woah, woah...lets not even start trying to compare Foles to Kurt Warner.  That's not even close to being a good comparison. Not by talent nor situation. 

Foles entered the league as a 4th round pick and has spent 8 years trying to find a GM/HC that believes he is a starter and is still looking. Warner came off the street and it only took him 1 year to convince 1 single team that he was worth investing in. Warner is also the last QB to win MVP and his team win a SB. 

Warner was a VERY rare find that will likely never happen again--especially in this era with advancements of technology. That is like saying any 6th round QB could be the next Tom Brady just because Tom Brady did it.  That's how rare it is. 

3 hours ago, soulman said:

I don't think anyone sees Foles as some kind of franchise QB but I believe he's good enough to win with if we need him.

So do I. But I also believe Mitch is good enough too.

If Mitch gets benched then probably means that we have been losing games that we shouldn't have because of poor QB play (or at least that's how Nagy would sell it). But the difference between Mitch and Foles are very small and so we most likely won't see a big difference even if Foles takes over. Will it be better than trouting out Chase? Sure. But it's not like Foles is god enough of a QB to can change an entire offense either. 

Let me be even more clear, let's say we are 3-4 and Pace/nagy decides to bench Mitch. I don't think Foles is so good that he could help our team go 7-2 in the next 9 games. 

[JAF-N72EX]

1 hour ago, abstract_thought said:

Top 1/3 of all QBs? Sure. Top 1/3 of starting QBs? Not even close. His floor is one of the worst starting QBs in football. It's not fair to compare Mitch to guys who sit on the sidelines.

Neither Mitch nor Foles are "high-floor". They're both high variance guys who can be great but can also be awful. The only difference between this year and last is that the Bears get 2 rolls of the dice instead of 1.

Suga already addressed this but you seem to be to caught up on the "high-floor" and forgetting that we have also said that they both have a low-ceiling.  

[soulman]

20 minutes ago, abstract_thought said:

OK that's fair if we're evaluating Mitch as a draft pick, but I thought this thread was about evaluating the Bears' 2020 QB situation. I wouldn't consider their situation "high-floor" because they have 2 top 40 QBs.

Well then let's call them mid-floor guys. 😉

Even the best have had streaks where they've been pretty awful too.

For this year and this year alone the expectation should be that one or the other, or both in combination, can play well enough to get us into the playoffs which to me means winning 10 games minimum.  I believe we can do that I just don't know yet whether we will do it.

Magic 8 Ball says ask again after first 3-4 games.

[JAF-N72EX]

4 minutes ago, soulman said:

Well then let's call them mid-floor guys. 😉

Even the best have had streaks where they've been pretty awful too.

For this year and this year alone the expectation should be that one or the other, or both in combination, can play well enough to get us into the playoffs which to me means winning 10 games minimum.  I believe we can do that I just don't know yet whether we will do it.

Magic 8 Ball says ask again after first 3-4 games.

Agreed. This team is too talented to to finish less than 9 games, regardless of who the QB is. Last year was one of those years where everything that could go wrong, did go wrong.  

[soulman]

23 minutes ago, JAF-N72EX said:

Woah, woah...lets not even start trying to compare Foles to Kurt Warner.  That's not even close to being a good comparison. Not by talent nor situation. 

Foles entered the league as a 4th round pick and has spent 8 years trying to find a GM/HC that believes he is a starter and is still looking. Warner came off the street and it only took him 1 year to convince 1 single team that he was worth investing in. Warner is also the last QB to win MVP and his team win a SB. 

Warner was a VERY rare find that will likely never happen again--especially in this era with advancements of technology. That is like saying any 6th round QB could be the next Tom Brady just because Tom Brady did it.  That's how rare it is. 

But look at Warner's record.   He walked into a perfect situation with a team built to win that was only lacking the right QB.  For 3 seasons he was pretty magical but then the wheels came off.  The rest of his career with two other teams was not so good.  Yeah, he was a "find" but his star faded fast once the Greatest Show on Turf got shut down.

Mid round QB picks are seldom expected to be more than Nick Foles has ever been when in reality he's outplayed quite a few 1st round picks in his career.  IMHO he's a system QB with middle of the road passing skills but far better leadership traits than Mitch and maybe even Wentz have shown during their careers.  And he's been to the top of the mountain and back down again.  That is worth a lot in terms of overall experience.

Mitch will get his shot because Mitch needs to get another shot for everyone's sake as well as his own.  But if he fails and we need a guy to step in and take over quickly I'm glad we have Foles.  He's proven before that he can be "that guy".

Edited August 6, 2020 by soulman