JaguarCrazy2832 Posted August 15, 2020 Share Posted August 15, 2020 (edited) I'm sure you guys are like me and have some weird ideas that you might want to talk through: 1. Why is Aaron Jones not a 1st round pick? My Non-PPR rankings I have him at 6 but ESPN has him at 14 and only 9th/10th at RB. I plan on taking him at 8 in my big league. Why is he dinged so hard? Is 1400 yards and 12-13 TDs so implausible? I feel like I'm going to get laughed at for taking Jones so high but he isnt going to be there in round 2 and I just dont think the others rated ahead of him are without issue 2. Same thing about Alvin Kamara, but why is he a Top-5 pick? Again I'm talking Non-PPR but I just dont get it. if he is there at #8(unlikely) I feel like I'd pass on him. I just dont see the TD production. His yardage is elite but his 2019 numbers were lacking. I know 2018 he was a monster but he needs to be fully-removed EDIT: Who the RBs are ahead of Aaron Jones 1. Nick Chubb- The numbers are there. When Kareem Hunt was active, Chubb was outside the Top-12 at RB and I think that hold more weight than a what-if scenario for a late 2nd round pick in Dillon 2. Miles Sanders- is he going to get a consistent workload to be a RB1? He is fresh though and behind a great line 3. Josh Jacobs- I dont have a problem with and I think his offense will improve which makes him more valuable than last year 4. CEH- I want him badly, loved him at LSU but taking a rookie that high without a normal offseason albeit in an incredible offense is a tough call. Of those 4 I think Jacobs is the safest since CEH-Sanders have more potential to reach but a lesser floor. Chubb will get dinged for Hunt Even writing this up above my love for Jones hasn't changed but I probably should've picked a later slot lol oops Edited August 15, 2020 by JaguarCrazy2832 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fattlipp Posted August 15, 2020 Share Posted August 15, 2020 (edited) Dillon. Edited August 15, 2020 by fattlipp Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AFF Posted August 15, 2020 Share Posted August 15, 2020 Jones is in for serious TD regression... Kamara and the Saints for that matter are in for + tf regression in terms of their rushing td totals the past 5 years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaguarCrazy2832 Posted August 15, 2020 Author Share Posted August 15, 2020 5 hours ago, AlanFanecaFan said: Jones is in for serious TD regression... Kamara and the Saints for that matter are in for + tf regression in terms of their rushing td totals the past 5 years. I get that his 19 TDs was way over his head but if he drops to 12-13 TDs which is still in the realm of possibility how is he not up there? Judging by the projections it looks like I'm splitting hairs @fattlipp I think Latavius Murray is a bigger threat to the TD numbers than AJ Dillon is. Kamara had some injuries and they want to keep him explosive. Jones hasn't had THAT many touches in his career too Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NcFinest9erFan Posted August 17, 2020 Share Posted August 17, 2020 On 8/14/2020 at 8:06 PM, JaguarCrazy2832 said: I'm sure you guys are like me and have some weird ideas that you might want to talk through: 1. Why is Aaron Jones not a 1st round pick? My Non-PPR rankings I have him at 6 but ESPN has him at 14 and only 9th/10th at RB. I plan on taking him at 8 in my big league. Why is he dinged so hard? Is 1400 yards and 12-13 TDs so implausible? I feel like I'm going to get laughed at for taking Jones so high but he isnt going to be there in round 2 and I just dont think the others rated ahead of him are without issue 2. Same thing about Alvin Kamara, but why is he a Top-5 pick? Again I'm talking Non-PPR but I just dont get it. if he is there at #8(unlikely) I feel like I'd pass on him. I just dont see the TD production. His yardage is elite but his 2019 numbers were lacking. I know 2018 he was a monster but he needs to be fully-removed EDIT: Who the RBs are ahead of Aaron Jones 1. Nick Chubb- The numbers are there. When Kareem Hunt was active, Chubb was outside the Top-12 at RB and I think that hold more weight than a what-if scenario for a late 2nd round pick in Dillon 2. Miles Sanders- is he going to get a consistent workload to be a RB1? He is fresh though and behind a great line 3. Josh Jacobs- I dont have a problem with and I think his offense will improve which makes him more valuable than last year 4. CEH- I want him badly, loved him at LSU but taking a rookie that high without a normal offseason albeit in an incredible offense is a tough call. Of those 4 I think Jacobs is the safest since CEH-Sanders have more potential to reach but a lesser floor. Chubb will get dinged for Hunt Even writing this up above my love for Jones hasn't changed but I probably should've picked a later slot lol oops Obviously it come down to what your league setting is. Mine is .5 per carry and one point PPR. I'm keeping Chubb and honestly not too worried about Hunt. Now if Kitchens was still the OC then yes I'd have my worries but yes in a non-ppr Chubb is probably the worst of the four. Although he could end up leading the league in rushing if everything pans out. I like Jones but I really don't love the idea that this running game could be a 3 headed committee. Although there are rumors that Jamal Williams could get cut and Jones could get a new deal. If this happens then I'd move him up my ranks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaguarCrazy2832 Posted August 17, 2020 Author Share Posted August 17, 2020 1 hour ago, NcFinest9erFan said: Obviously it come down to what your league setting is. Mine is .5 per carry and one point PPR. I'm keeping Chubb and honestly not too worried about Hunt. Now if Kitchens was still the OC then yes I'd have my worries but yes in a non-ppr Chubb is probably the worst of the four. Although he could end up leading the league in rushing if everything pans out. I like Jones but I really don't love the idea that this running game could be a 3 headed committee. Although there are rumors that Jamal Williams could get cut and Jones could get a new deal. If this happens then I'd move him up my ranks. I get if you want to worry about Dillon but why is Jamal Williams expected to be anything more than what he was last year? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NcFinest9erFan Posted August 17, 2020 Share Posted August 17, 2020 25 minutes ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said: I get if you want to worry about Dillon but why is Jamal Williams expected to be anything more than what he was last year? I guess I'd be more content picking Aaron Jones if there was one less RB in the rotation... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winitall Posted August 17, 2020 Share Posted August 17, 2020 54 minutes ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said: I get if you want to worry about Dillon but why is Jamal Williams expected to be anything more than what he was last year? I think you have to worry about Williams because it seems like Green Bay likes him in his current role and it’s a very different role than what AJ Dillon is going to be used for. Williams taking half the 3rd down reps last year wasn’t a big deal because Jones was getting everything else. If Dillon comes in and starts taking 1st/2nd down and goal line snaps away, that’s reducing Jones’ role even more. He goes from 260 carries to maybe closer to 200, and TD’s maybe drop in half from that and he can’t make up for it with increased receiving output because of how many snaps Williams is taking up in those situations. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaguarCrazy2832 Posted August 17, 2020 Author Share Posted August 17, 2020 36 minutes ago, NcFinest9erFan said: I guess I'd be more content picking Aaron Jones if there was one less RB in the rotation... Yea and considering he did just get 236 carries if that number goes down it doesnt help. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaguarCrazy2832 Posted August 17, 2020 Author Share Posted August 17, 2020 Just now, winitall said: I think you have to worry about Williams because it seems like Green Bay likes him in his current role and it’s a very different role than what AJ Dillon is going to be used for. Williams taking half the 3rd down reps last year wasn’t a big deal because Jones was getting everything else. If Dillon comes in and starts taking 1st/2nd down and goal line snaps away, that’s reducing Jones’ role even more. He goes from 260 carries to maybe closer to 200, and TD’s maybe drop in half from that and he can’t make up for it with increased receiving output because of how many snaps Williams is taking up in those situations. im just saying Williams role wont change or hurt Jones anymore than last year. I think its strictly what Dillon's role is. I'm sure he'll vulture some TDs but I dont expect him to get a ton of work. Jones is the guy and huge reason why their offense was so good last year and its not like they have a good #2 WR again so I cant imagine a team that still thinks they're contenders will reduce his load already too much 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaguarCrazy2832 Posted August 17, 2020 Author Share Posted August 17, 2020 I do feel like I'm cooling on Jones to that level but unfortunately 8th overall is still no-mans land in standard leagues. Really need 1-2 QBs and Michael Thomas to go before me Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motion Posted August 17, 2020 Share Posted August 17, 2020 Ive been fading Aaron Jones all off-season, hoping he gets picked by someone else before my 2nd round picks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N4L Posted August 18, 2020 Share Posted August 18, 2020 On 8/15/2020 at 4:31 AM, JaguarCrazy2832 said: I get that his 19 TDs was way over his head but if he drops to 12-13 TDs which is still in the realm of possibility how is he not up there? Judging by the projections it looks like I'm splitting hairs @fattlipp I think Latavius Murray is a bigger threat to the TD numbers than AJ Dillon is. Kamara had some injuries and they want to keep him explosive. Jones hasn't had THAT many touches in his career too Jones has a small frame. It's why idiot McCarthy never gave him the full run Dillion was clearly drafted with a specific role in mind. It's clearly to pound the ball up the middle, in short yardage and in goal line No one wants to draft a guy in the first round who will get vultured. Jones has been underused his whole career. 12-13 might be the regression if they didn't draft Dillon, but it's hard to score TDs if you aren't on the field. That is the fear. As someone that owns him in dynasty and has been waiting for the price to drop so I can sign him to a LTD (I think he leaves in free agency next year) at some point there is too much risk to spend big $ or draft capital on him Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N4L Posted August 18, 2020 Share Posted August 18, 2020 15 hours ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said: im just saying Williams role wont change or hurt Jones anymore than last year. I think its strictly what Dillon's role is. I'm sure he'll vulture some TDs but I dont expect him to get a ton of work. Jones is the guy and huge reason why their offense was so good last year and its not like they have a good #2 WR again so I cant imagine a team that still thinks they're contenders will reduce his load already too much You don't draft a RB that high unless you plan on using him A LOT his rookie year, unless you are a completely incompetent GM, especiallywhen your first pick was a backup QB. Just feels like the packers will use him more than you think he will I would take Josh Jacobs and miles Sanders all day long before Jones. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NcFinest9erFan Posted August 18, 2020 Share Posted August 18, 2020 What are everyone's though on David Johnson? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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